Yes I suppose it is. My bad. I will wait with baited breath.
Yep. I have guarded optimism about Harris,
Bullfinch’s newest poll (scroll down for PDF link) has Harris at +8 over Trump among registered voters nationwide. No state-specific crosstabs, though.
The data was collected Mon-Wed of this week, so I’m assuming some convention bounce. But still.
*bated. Unless you’ve been eating worms.
I realize there’s no real way to know, but I wonder how much of a plus and minus it’s been that Harris has been under the radar for the past 4 years? On the one hand, she isn’t tied to Joe’s unpopular decisions or mistakes, and on the other she can take credit for his successes. It’s a delicate dance, but it also means people have to be educated about her very quickly.
Good point. I figured I had a 50-50 chance with guessing. 
We’ve got a Penn Poll. 51.1% Harris to 48.9% Trump.
Collected: August 5, 2024 and August 22, 2024
A lot of breakdowns on this one.
Most interesting lines to me:
If Harris is making serious inroads in rural areas, that’s pretty significant–as is her making inroads with folks with less formal education.
But disappointed how it was 50-50 with those with degrees. I would have expected better numbers there. The rural number was a pleasant surprise for me too.
The Bullfinch National poll is pretty hopeful. This is the key question:
BF3. If the Presidential election were held today, how would you vote if your options were: (RANDOMIZE 1-6)
| (A) | (RV) | |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | 47% | Democrat Kamala Harris |
| 39% | 39% | Republican Donald Trump |
| 5% | 5% | Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. |
| 1% | 1% | Independent Cornel West |
| 1% | 1% | Green Party Jill Stein |
| 1% | 1% | Libertarian Chase Oliver |
| 9% | 6% | Unsure |
Yeah, that’s pretty interesting, and goes along with Trump’s lead in suburban areas. I wonder if there are a lot of folks with degrees who pay vague attention to the news, blame Biden for inflation, and kind of end their economic analysis at that point.
Or we are over reading from small subgroup sample sizes.
Noice!
Finally, 538’s Harris-Trump forecast model is up and running:
That was a deep-dive explanation of the model. Here’s the model’s current status – the page you’ll want to bookmark, and doom-check every hour, day and night, for thenext seventy days 
ooh interesting. The polls-only outlook (D+3.9) is better than the fundamentals-only outlook (D+2.8). This is opposite of the model for Biden right before it came down, where the Biden’s chances being near 50-50 were based mostly on (likely over-rosy) fundamentals not polls.
So it looks like they’re saying right now Harris is 58% likely to win, to Trumps 41% chance.
If you scroll down to the “How has the forecast changed over time?” section, it appears that Morris has actually been running some kind of model (a preliminary one?) since July 26th. You can trace his graphic to see that he had Trump ahead in the electoral count until August 7th, after which Harris has remained in the lead.
I like seeing Texas and Florida in the Lean R category, with Harris having about a 1 in 3 chance in Florida and a 1 in 4 chance in Texas.
It’s also common/straightforward in stats to back-calculate to the same effect, by calculating (now) what the numbers would have been when using only data before any given date.
And this just reinforces how important getting out the voters will prove to be.