If by “insightful event” you mean an event that results in irreparable damage to large swaths of neurons, then yeah, one of those.
But he didnt really answer any questions. A question was asked, and he gave confusing non sequiturs and babble.
The NYT has threatened Harris unless she does- with them of course.
I wish I could find the article, but it stated that the hidden Trump vote was actually even less represented in 2020 polling vs. 2016 polling. And furthermore, the difference was more severe in swing states. Sure, Kamala is bringing out new voters, but they would likely be more open and vocal about it. A larger proportion of Trump voters seem to be much more silent and private. I’m sure we can all think of the reasons why. Until we have some sense of how large this bloc is in the swing states, I see no benefit to paying attention to the polls. I appreciate @PhillyGuy’s link, but it gives me no comfort that polls are predictive, with any certainty, of the actual outcomes of the presidential vote by state. Considering the consequences, that’s all I care about.
By the way, if there was a way to place a bet that says that the Supreme Court, by some way for whatever reason and by any means necessary, hands the presidency to Donald Trump, I would place a pretty large sum on that. Unfortunately I couldn’t find it on Fanduel. 
Interesting State Polls from Fox News of all places. Aug. 23-26
NC = Trump +1 but Harris +2 in {\color{blue}\mathbf{Nevada}} & {\color{blue}\mathbf{Georgia}} and +1 in {\color{blue}\mathbf{Arizona}}.
A couple of polls showing Trump leading in PA and now Silver’s model shows Trump with a higher chance for the first time since August 3rd.
Trump at 52.4%
Harris 47.3%
And…right on cue, we get a new poll from Emerson, which shows a tie still in Pennsylvania.
This is bad, folks.
Movement of a few points here or there is entirely normal and expected. Also, it’s early. Let’s see what the polls are, overall, for the next month or two.
No, this is neutral. This election is simply not going to be a blowout, folks. It’s going to be won by at most a couple of percentage points in a few key states, and today’s minute polling wobbles are not a trendline.
I hear what you’re saying, but we have every reason to be nervous every time a poll confirms that PA could very easily go either way.
Not “so depressed you can’t get through the day” nervous – rather, “do what you can to get the right votes cast” nervous.
Sure. Being nervous is the normal state of being for Democrats. I’ll be nervous until (and maybe beyond) election day.
A coin-flip chance that Trump will be president again for the next four years is “neutral”? It’s utterly insane, bonkers, off-the-rails, holy shit… ANYTHING but “neutral”!
I think I know what you were trying to convey, but maybe there’s a clearer way to put it.
A 50-50 chance that (say) the Yankees win the World Series is “neutral.” Unless you’re a huge fan, it doesn’t matter much, really – and even if you are a huge fan, you recognize it doesn’t matter much in the bigger scheme of things.
To pull back far enough so that a Trump win in 2024 doesn’t mean anything – is “neutral” – you’d have to look historically on the scale of about a century, and include the whole world (and even then, it’s a biggie).
For a US resident somewhere in the middle of their about-80-years alive, the most salient time scales are those in which this is not “neutral” in the slightest.
Really? You suffered the same level of concern in August 2004, when it looked more or less 50-50 that Kerry would lose to Bush Jr.?
Or 1988, when t looked more or less 50-50 that Dukakis would lose to Bush Sr.?
Or even 2012, when (after Obama’s first debate) it looked like Mitt Romney might become president?
Trump is no Bush Sr., no Bush Jr., no Romney.
(I can’t believe I’m explaining this to you folks. What is going on?)
To soften the blow of this a teeny bit, Harris has a bit of headwind in the model because of the effect of a convention bounce. This will dissipate over the next several days.
My feelings have changed with each election.
In any case, why do you care how I personally feel? My feelings don’t matter. They don’t affect the election. My panicking won’t help anyone. I’m nervous, and I’m enough in control of my emotions that that’s about the limit of my anxiety based on politics. I don’t recommend getting too worked up about things that are out of your control.
Fair enough. A couple months ago, I put a post-it next to my bed, on which I had written: “Don’t let Trump pull you off the path.”
I was thinking of wasted time (away from my job, my parenting…), and wasted energy (even possible medical conditions like ulcers; lost sleep, for sure).
Thank you for the reminder.
Although, coincidentally, I DO have one thing I will be doing today…counter-protesting the presence of that orange slime polluting my wonderful city of La Crosse, Wisconsin.
I’ll be the one with the Cecil Adams t-shirt…
I think I was perfectly clear in what I meant – one PA poll showing a tied race is neutral in terms of predictive value for the election.
Sure. But you replied “No” when I said “this is bad, folks.”
It is neutral in terms of predictive value for the election*…AND that is very bad.
*Kind of. The forecast models aren’t “predictive,” in any case…but if you’re thinking of the forecast models, in a few days (barring other important polling) this 50-50 PA poll will bring the percentage of “Harris wins” scenarios generated by the models down slightly from its current runs, which is (for example) about 59% according to the Morris model at 538.
(According to Nate Silver’s model, TRUMP WINS now in 51% of his runs. The difference is that Silver assumes there will be a bit of decline in polling numbers for Harris in the next week or two anyway, as her supposed convention uptick fades…so another 50-50 poll in a week in PA, say, is likely to pull his model back to around the same 59% level as Morris’ current one. Still close to a coin-toss…WAY too close for comfort).
Anyone who was excited when Silver’s model showed a 54% chance for a Harris victory and is now panicking when it’s 51% Trump doesn’t understand statistics. The amount of hope or panic that is justified has not changed.
Indeed and Silver makes that exact same point in his analysis.