What threat are you talking about?
i can tell you that where ever you go in centre city phila (pa ) you will be asked numerous times if you are registered to vote.
they are out in force.
I work downtown La Crosse near the convention center - I left at 11 – did not want to get stuck due to road closures. Is there a place where protesters are gathering?
(to make traffic even worse – cruise ship is in town)
Brian
I think I’m resistant to the idea that it’s a one-state general election, Pennsylvania or bust.
Other combinations of swing states can make up for a Trump win in Pennsylvania. Another poll aggregation site, electoral-vote.com, has a tipping point chart updated daily. Right now, it’s got Pennsylvania and North Carolina in Trump’s column, but all five other swing states (WI, MI, GA, AZ, NV) for Harris, yielding 284 electoral votes for Harris.
All the usual caveats, poll responses aren’t votes, etc. Still some food for thought.
As an aside: People talk about the narrowing Trump polling leads in Florida (+4) and even Texas (+5) … but I hadn’t realized that Indiana is polling that close as well at +4.
Because Harris “should” be ahead? Because if she’s not ahead, then she’s behind? What numbers would have been “good,” and do you reasonably think they’d be reality?
Have you been reading this thread?
That is a different thread than this one.
Yes, indeed, it is.
And here is more crazy lies from the MAGA crowd-
Not sure why it matters that it is a different thread, it addresses your question from what I can see. I would expect it to be seen as helpful but that’s just me I guess.
OK. I can buy that.
Brian, hello! I was hoping the Facebook site below would provide more details. Doors opened at 3:00, and the orange shitstain lying begins at 6:00. A colleague is biking right now to Turtle Stack Brewery, and he’ll report if and where the protestors (really, a show of support for the shitstain’s opponent) are gathering --and I’ll post here.
The hope or panic changes if the percentages don’t change and we get closer and closer to the election. As each day passes and it remains a coin toss, the chances of it becoming OTHER than a coin toss declines.
I’ve explained this already. If she loses PA, she must win two out of three of GA, AZ, and NC (or perhaps NV). You’re right, that is possible, but the polls HAVE to get better in two of those states, for this to move away from “coin toss” territory…and there’s no reason to think they WILL get better at this point (though they might).
By Election Day, I’ll go with Russian roulette odds (to feel “good”). That mean 17% chance of Trump winning. That means 83% chance that Harris wins. I’ll use the average between Silver’s model and Morris’ (currently 54%).
I was really hoping we’d be in the low 60’s by by now. But we’re not.
As for your second question…that’s a toughie. I’m still optimistic enough to say “yes, there’s a possibility Harris will reach those heights by Election Day.” But it’s a pretty small possibility. Much more likely is that she ends up around 72%. Sound familiar?
I advise against following every single poll as if a single poll matters, but it’s always nice when we get a chunk like this:
Harris +3 Michigan, +4 PA, and +8 WI. Also up in GA, NC, and NV. Tied in AZ.
After the debate, I think the Harris campaign should a make a major move on college campuses in the battleground states. All I see now is a letter and a signup page on her website. She needs to recruit returning students to canvas and register the newly minted 18-year-old voters.
In a teaser released by CNN for tonight’s interview, Harris says that she would appoint a Republican to her Cabinet because she thinks it’s important to have a diversity of opinions.
Not sure if this was already posted, but I REALLY hope she doesn’t cave in on this one and decline to increase taxes on the rich after all.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/29/us/politics/donors-harris-tax-ultrawealthy.html
That’s a deeply stupid and pandering idea, IMHO.
Raised $142,000.
An idea that has been carried out by the last dozen or so administrations. Not an idea so much as a tradition.
Will anybody else be watching? I plan to tune in.
Not necessarily a bad idea. If I remember my history lessons correctly (and I’m not sure that I do), Abraham Lincoln did the same thing: populated his cabinet with a few political rivals.
In Harris’ case, I’m sure that she would look for a “safe” Republican, who would not stymie everything, just for the sake of screwing up her plans. She’d look at an Adam Kinzinger or a Liz Cheney or somebody like them. Definitely not a Lauren Boebert or an MTG.