I think it’s more they think Berkeley (equals far left) shorthand is scarier than Oakland (equals Black which she only recently decided to be …) is. Which face it, is why she emphasizes Oakland over Berkeley.
I like that one, or perhaps “I’m ‘Kamala’ to my friends. You can call me Vice President Harris.”
August 26th above and things continue to look worse and worse.
Harris has a 41.6% chance of winning the EC in Silver’s model now, the lowest since July 30th.
NV: Trump 57.6% chance of winning
AZ: Trump 70.1%
WI: Harris 52.9%
MI: Trump 50.3%
PA: Trump 58.1%
GA: Trump 63.8%
NC: Trump 70.9%
The post convention bounce is giving a bit of headwind to the topline number but not the state by state predictions. We are fucked. She will make him look foolish in the debate and it won’t matter.
Polls go up and down all the time. Dont panic.
In good news here is proof the economy is better under Biden that trump.
I know but it’s been consistently down for a couple of weeks.
I believe it. You believe it. Most people don’t care about your facts.
How do you know we won’t get 10+ point swings in favor of Harris next week if things are that volatile? Or are you arguing that her numbers are in that severe of a freefall?
No. The Silver forecast is down despite polling being slightly up and then steady because it is not as much up as his model has declared a typical convention bounce should be. Which he notes is a very fuzzy estimate as this cycle is very much not typical. Do not confuse the forecast percentages with polling percentages. The forecast can and does change even as the polling does not.
538’s forecast model has also been declining for Harris, but from 59% in her favor to 55% in her favor.
I could see her just calling him Don-old every time he gets it wrong, but I agree it’s not the place for such things.
I’m not sure the distinction between Don-old and Donald is all that clear when spoken.
Just adjust the cadence a smidge, to hit the “old” part harder. “Don-OLD”
I obviously don’t know the future. I am not comfortable at all with how things are going.
And you’re confident enough to judge “how things are going” when the numbers are so volatile?
It should be very clear that I’m not confident at all.
Cheney will vote for Harris.
Okay, but just this once
Or, she could go with “D’oh-nald” – if Matt approves.
This is good but you know what is even better? An endorsement from Captain Janeway:
Some guy named Allan Lichtman hss devised a tool for predicting the election result. Relying on 13 metrics, he claims it has returned accurate results for 40 years. His count has Ms Harris leading by 8-to-3, with 2 foreign-policy-related metrics not fully estabished.
(note: link is to a 7 minute YT video)
He’s been around for a while and he’s a hack