Ugh, you are of course correct. Sorry to confuse the issue.
Silver is a Democrat and had said over and over that he’s rooting for Harris
For what it’s worth (still not much), Harris ahead by 3 in the blue wall states, tied in NC/NV/GA:
I know it’s just one poll, but that’s the first good news I’ve seen in PA in almost a month. Yay. (Not “Yay!” Just…yay.)
You dismiss him because why? Sounds like just because you don’t like his prediction.
He does have a claim to be a good predictor. His predictions, political and otherwise, were pretty well calibrated when he was at 538.
“If I ignore bad things for no reason, then things look better!” Also, a 1-2% lead nationally for Harris is pretty bad for her in the electoral college.
Now, I’m not saying it’s a lock for Trump, but if you want to dismiss someone actually have a reason.
Speaking of reasons, if there is one for a steady drop in Harris polling, I don’t see it, even apart from any consideration of Trump and his core voters. Yeah, it’s possible some of the initial relief and enthusiasm is waning, but I’m not sure why it’d be by so significant a margin. Where did all those presumably relieved people who boosted her polling in the first place go? Apathy? Trump? Third party? None of the options make a lot of sense to me.
I dismiss him because it is no longer possible to conduct statistical polling in this country to any meaningful degree of accuracy. He may as well be looking at tea leaves or consulting an astrological chart for the validity of the data it would provide.
You believe that based on what?
The consistent failure of polls to accurately measure Democratic turnout over the last several years, coupled with the observable fact that the majority of Americans (people under 50 especially) no longer answer cold calls because of the prevalence of scammers, salesmen, and bill collectors, and the fact that caller ID is now next to useless since it can be easily spoofed.
Consistent = only the midterms huh?
I actually don’t recall Silver’s predictions in 2022. You’re very confident he did poorly, what was his accuracy?
It’s not no reason. Both are known R-leaning pollsters. And if removing them changes things that much, I have to wonder if Silver is still weighting them properly. He’s the one where I learned these are R-leaning pollsters.
I would expect that, with proper weighting, removing polls should not change things very much at all. Obviously the weighting will be based on the past, not current, so it won’t be perfect (as that would make the polls useless). But huge swings from taking out polls still seems wrong to me.
Now what that actually means, I don’t know.
He’s just removing the raw numbers, not whatever weighting that goes on behind the scenes.
I don’t think weighting is the right term.
If a certain poll has a known historical bias, he will attempt to correct for that. If a poll is historically inaccurate, he will give it a larger standard deviation in the model. A poll can be inaccurate, biased or both. I am probably oversimplifying but that’s the basics.
Cite. Note. A cite that documents Theil as a minority shareholder without any controlling interest or managerial role in a company that Silver has done a consulting gig for does NOT support your claim.
Silver as a pundit is no more astute than any other. He gets full of himself. His model may be past its prime and of little added value now. But these accusations are without basis.
I posted this elsewhere (maybe even in this thread) but the 2022 polls were pretty accurate. The media narrative of an upcoming “red wave” was pushed in spite of the polls, not because of them.
Silver is now a paid tool of the GOP. He sold out.
Yep.
She is slightly ahead or even in nearly every battleground state but AZ.
It doesnt mean they can lead in and after with their usual lies.
It is hopeful, that’s all.
Follow the money. Silver sold out and it now a paid shill of the GOP
But note that next to last number- .FL: Trump 49/47, And abortion & pot are on the ballot there. A little while ago, trump was way ahead in Fla. If Harris wins Florida- goodnight Vienna.
AZ- leaning trump- 11 votes- Florida- now toss up- 30 votes.
He did when he was part of a team- a politically neutral team. He sold his company and his team, including the researchers, mathematicians, etc. Now, he is a piad tool of the GOP.
He blew 2016. totally and completely.
In yesterday’s Open Forum, @charontwo posted a link to an Adam Silverman thread on Bluesky Social drawing a line between Russian influence operations, Peter Thiel’s investment in political betting platform called Polymarket, Silver’s joining said market, and Silver’s prediction flip.
The evidence beyond the post hoc ergo propter hoc is, to put it generously, thin. But Silverman notes,
> Remember, Silver’s model is proprietary, so there’s no way to replicate (stress test for accuracy) his results. Without being able to replicate them, the model cannot be verified. This is the opposite of social, behavioral, or any other type of science or application of scientific methodology.
He notes political scientist Rachel Bitecofer makes the same point, going so far as to call it “unethical in terms of research standards” and “anti-theoretical.”
Just when the GOP $$ came rolling in, Silver suddenly changed his mind.
Summary
Can’t prove it, but I expect that Silver is a W2 employee of Polymarket. He’s not doing a one-off gig with them — the Yahoo Finance article I linked elsewhere establishes that much.
I’m sure Thiel can apply shell-company concepts to his own dealings. To me, he doesn’t get to credibly protest “But I’m only a small investor!”. Others’ mileage may vary.
Moderating , drop this Nate Silver crap now. This thread is not about him and his associates.
I hid the last completely off topic post.
If you are responding to something in a thread that is basically off-topic or likely to lead to a hijack, try this:
How to Reply as a linked Topic:
Click Reply, in the upper left corner of the reply window is the reply type button, looks like a curving arrow point to the right.
Choose Reply as linked topic and it starts a new thread. As an example, you can choose GD, IMHO or The Pit for it.
That is actually the best method.
If I might get back to the topic of the OP, I don’t think there is any kind of strategy or performance by Harris that will assure her a win. (Although there are many that might assure a loss). The result is all about voters’ perception of Trump; not Harris. Just like 2020, this election is an up or down referendum on Trump. Harris’ biggest advantage is Trump’s bizarre and erratic behavior. Any death knell to his campaign will be of his own making.
I just saw a stat that over 20% of undecided voters will watch the debate to learn more about Harris, while less than 10% to learn more about Trump. While that might seem obvious, as Trump has been in the spotlight much longer, but it suggests that Harris has some upside (and downside) potential tonight.