One thing I was realizing during the debate is that when thinking about undecided voters, one of the things they are undecided about is whether or not they will actually take the time to vote. They aren’t necessarily undecided about who they want to win. What they are undecided about is whether they are going to actually take the time to cast their vote. That’s probably true for all voters no matter their classification. I think Harris’ performance in the debate helped make some of those people actually decide to cast their vote for her rather than stay home. I don’t think Trump’s debate changed anyone’s mind. A Trump supporter who had the attitude of “why bother voting” before the debate likely still had that same attitude after the debate.
Completely untrue for me, my family, and my close friends. We vote in every election, large or small.
Sorry. I meant that no matter if you fit into the official “undecided voter” category or not, you might still decide to not cast a vote. When polls are taken, they’ll ask if you are a R, D, or Undecided. An undecided in that sense is undecided about the two candidates. But for all voters, one thing they may be undecided about is if they are going to actually stand in line to cast their vote. Lots of long time voters decide that it’s not worth their time and don’t cast their vote even though they want a candidate to win. I think like 1/3 of potential voters don’t actually vote. Those people may have a candidate they want to win, but they don’t vote for whatever reason. I think Harris’ performance in the debate is going to get some of her supporters in that non-voting 1/3rd to actually vote this time.
Mine too. Long before I was old enough to vote my parents drove home that voting is not just a right but an obligation and part of being a good citizen.
I can say that this sums me up perfectly. I watched and hoped that President Obama would win in 2008 and 2012 as if I was watching a football game on TV. I didn’t bother to “get my ass off the couch” and register here in TX until April of 2016 (when I was 45) and was motivated by doing whatever I could.
Hopefully there are a shit-ton of folks (especially the 18 - 24 range of gals who might even be influenced by a T-Swift social media post) to take action a lot sooner in their lives than I did.
“Women.”
Copied over from another thread:
There is some statistical (or at least quantitative) basis for putting an approximate number on the electoral college advantage, currently for the Republican candidate (with the usual caveats that each election is unique, etc., etc.). This time around, according to several experts, it’s basically:
Harris up 2% nationally? Trump slightly favored to win the electoral college (though he might not, of course).
Harris up 3% nationally? Truly a crapshoot. (And, this is the situation most likely to result in yet another “popular win, electoral loss” for the Democrat – something Silver, for one, currently pegs as 1-in-5 chance).
Harris up 4% nationally? Harris favored to win the electoral college as well. (Trump could still win the EC, but it would be quite unlikely – something like a 1-in-10 chance. But that’s still a chance!). More than one expert has said this is when Harris supporters can start to “breathe a little easier.” Not take the foot off the gas – just breathe easier.
Most poll aggregators have her at about 2.5% ahead at this time, maybe 3% at most. A crapshoot.
The EC advantage is not a fixed thing. It is possible to be bigger than past years, and it is possible to be less. Effective campaigning in the likely tipping point states may result in it being less.
Moving on. Debate over and clearly she accomplished her main goals. Predictions about impact?
I’m guessing the polls change very little with her staying roughly up 3 nationally and essentially tied in the most likely tipping point states.
OTOH I think it will have impact the polls won’t see. Some marginal Trump leaners will stay home and some marginal Harris leaners will be more likely to come out after this.
Your guesses?
You just summarized my post perfectly. That is the electoral college advantage in a nutshell 
As to my guesses about movement…perhaps I’m being too optimistic, but I think there will be a slight shift, to almost 3.5% average likely-voter preference difference nationally, and enough movement in enough swing states that models will forecast her chances of winning at 60 to 65%, rather than the current 45 to 55%.
You are not wrong. You’re talking about the importance of turnout and yes, it’s very important. People need to (1) register to vote, and (2) actually bother to vote. I’ve participated in every election since I was old enough to vote because I believe that’s what people are supposed to do, but I know quite well that not everyone is that way.
In 2020, 66% of eligible voters participated in the presidential election. Only 2/3.
Yet that was the highest percentage since 1900. You’re unlikely to even see that amount again. So yes, convincing people to be on your side is important, but it’s meaningless if they don’t follow through and actually vote. If Harris can motivate people already favorable toward her to also vote, more than Trump can for his followers, that’s a victory.
That’s why I think it’s important to gauge enthusiasm as much or even more than polls. Who are people more excited about? And you have to maintain that all the way to the election.
With the one caveat. Those “roughly” numbers are rounding up and down. IF the polling aggregates actually WERE accurate the EC advantage (well disadvantage) is actually closer to 2 currently than 3. Yes a minor difference but of course this could be an election decided by the shot at the buzzer, so the little bits count.
Very true – thanks for the reminder.
Dont push the 'weird" thing. Lots of people enjoy calling themselves 'weird". Hell the SDMB is weird. Go for “creepy” instead.
Sure, but it’s already in his head. It would have bugged the hell out of him if she’d said it.
Can anyone tell what she said to Donald Trump today when they again shook hands?
“I suppose you’ll count this as the second debate.”
“Idiotsayswhat?”
“Creepy” is something that makes people afraid, angry or disgusted; they like that response in their opponents. “Weird” is better.
I’m hoping it moves to her being up 3-4%. Right now it’s more like 1.5-2.5% RCP, Nate Silver’s and 528’s polling averages (1.3%, 2%, 2.6% respectively).
Based on the way pollsters seem to be weighting things this cycle I can’t see it moving much more than that. And that’s going to make it butt-clenching until we get actual vote totals that can’t tell us whether the polls were doing their weighting correctly in the swing states.
Two polls for Sep 10-11 from Right leaning sources show Harris up 3% overall.
Red Eagle Politics shows her up by 3% and that 53% to 34% say Harris won the debate.