Hold dem horses sah. 538 popular vote predictor is up about 0.8 to +2.8, not +3.5. Overall a modest increase in polls done both before and after from down one to up to.
Which yes has their model very much in tossup range of 60% forecast of a Harris EC win. But so far a fairly modest debate bounce. More state polls in particular will be helpful.
This mirrors what Tim Walz did in Minnesota, to great acclaim.
More like 75% of them!
Anyway, Harris is down to 58% now. I’d say about the middle of this coming week is when the post-debate polling should be robust and meaningful.
Huh, that article is still posted
71.4% odds for Clinton.
Omigod. Down two points from where she was a few hours ago!!! Disaster!
Ha. Don’t worry, you know that I know that this means nothing in itself. That was my point — to not read too much into the 60% I had reported earlier in the day.
But it does seem there’s a pretty good chance we will be solidly in that 60-65 range by the middle of the week, by which time we’ll have enough polls to extract a trend from the noise (if there is one).
Or maybe we’ll never get there, and my prediction will be proven wrong.
InsiderAdvantage now gives PA to Trump, 49 to 48. But 538 polls rating is only two star. Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight
Still, polls in PA are few and none reflect the debate and eating cats and dogs meme.
Anyone have a current update on polling? The last one was 40 minutes ago.
Here you go: Harris has a 100% approval rating in my household and Trump has a 0%.
Okay, that was funny. (Took me a second!)
But let’s be a little gentle with each other, and with ourselves. If we check polls too often (I’m guilty of this), it’s not because we really think there’s some important data we need to know every day. It’s merely a reflection of our anxiety, knowing the stakes are so high. Will the next four years – and those of our children and friends and those less fortunate, and of our republic writ large – be crappy in important ways, or not so crappy?
If this election were (say) Romney vs. Obama, and the polls were as close as they are today, would we be checking them daily? No.
True, but repetitively checking the polls can itself feed the anxiety.
More anecdotes: we saw more Harris/Waltz signs than Trump signs on the way back to Philly.
Trump’s lead in Iowa cut from 18% to 4% over the course in time from about a month before Biden dropped out until now:
Agreed, and this thread is turning into a daily updates on polls thread. I would suggest that someone breakout a new thread to follow the polls and leave this one to general campaigning news. Frankly this constant discussion about polls is boring.
I agree.
Let’s take a poll!!
(Hides)
Actually, I am feelieg like we need a separate thread specifically for pollbean counting, because poll numbers have all but completely consumed the content of this thread leaving little room for any other content.
This should do:
I don’t think so, based on @What_Exit 's direction in the first post in that thread:
(My bolding)
Results of polls about Harris vs. Trump are fine here. It is a big part of this thread. The other poll thread is about how polls are done and meta stuff like that.