State polls are generally less accurate than national surveys, but the Iowa Poll, product of Selzer and Company, is a famed exception.
Just one survey, but this does make it look like Biden had no chance, and that Harris would win if the election was today.
P.S. I’m not saying Iowa is in play. I am saying that if Trump can only win Iowa by 4 percent, he cannot win nationally. For reference, Trump won Iowa by 8 percent in 2020. The final 2020 Iowa Poll had Trump up by 7.
That is indeed telling. Not definitive, of course, but worth noting and paying attention to.
As for posting on daily shifts…I hereby promise to only post a poll (or poll aggregator, or forecast model) update here twice a week (same as in the “How can Donald Win?” thread).
I agree with WhatExit? that this is a proper place for such posts – but I also agree with Northern_Piper that checking and posting on this too often can help feed the anxiety.
See y’all around Wednesday! 
I think we can grant exceptions for polls of greater significance, that add something new other than a live play by play? So yeah, that Iowa poll is significant that maybe Trump’s margin in his key demographics is softening some. It is perhaps evidence of the strength of the Harris campaign’s decision to fight in every demographic. A new Morning consult swing state poll post debate, when it comes out, merits immediate discussion.
Not to throw cold water on this conclusion, 'cause with a name like SunUp I’m all about the optimism, but I’m guessing that a Trump+7 win in Iowa would not be out of the question given the likely MOE of the Iowa poll? I agree it’s a good sign, and points to good things for Harris, but it seems like the hypothesis of “Iowa will do in 2024 about the same as it did in 2020” would not be disproven by this poll.
USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows Harris pulling ahead in Pennsylvania
FiveThirtyEight ran 1,000 general-election trials tonight. Harris 610, Trump 386, and four ties.
That’s a mite bit better than a coin flip. Not Easy Street, but not a coin flip.
There was an article in the Boston Globe yesterday (no link, sorry) that said recent polling showed Harris narrowing the gap or even overtaking Trump in the Maine 2nd congressional district. (As you probably know, Maine and Nebraska divvy up their EVs differently from the rest of the states).
This is noteworthy, I think, because if Harris can eke out that one more EV from Maine (and keep the Nebraska one she is slightly favored to win at the moment), it eliminates a bunch of the 269-269 tie scenarios that throw the vote to the House (and thus to Trump). According to the article, the Harris campaign is devoting some resources to getting all 4 Maine EVs while the Trump campaign (so far) is not doing much there.
It’s just going to be turnout in the end. If we get the 81 million or so votes Biden got in 2020, should be fine. I’m wondering if Trump can even pull the 74 million he got in 2020. I’d like to think more of his population has died off and that more people are sick and tired of him, but I’m not sure about the new population rising up and if they are going to support him.
I just hope everyone turns out, is registered, and gets their vote fully counted.
From a human (instead of mathematical) perspective Trump would have to be down to less than 25% for a roll of the dice to even start describing the odds more accurately than a coin toss.
So, despite how abominable this truth is, the race is till a coin toss at best, and is likely to remain a coin toss until ED. Sigh.
2 posts were merged into an existing topic: Polling: Unskewed Polls and comments on polling (moved from Harris Thread)
Thank you! I said exactly this on these boards, over a month ago.
Once again, This thread is not about how polling works. There is a thread for such. Polling: Unskewed Polls and comments on polling (moved from Harris Thread)
Moderating:
And I moved two of the posts least about Harris and more about polling to it.
This topic was automatically opened after 12 minutes.
Not swing state polls, but three national MC polls dropped today, one from pre-debate dates, one on the day of the debate and two days after, and one fully post-debate:
Sept 7-9 (LV): Harris +3
Sept 10-12 (LV): Harris +5
Sept 13-15 (LV): Harris +6
From the first poll to the last, Harris gained two percentage points while Trump dropped one, so that’s good. Btw, what’s the deal with this lack of swing state polling?
I feel a bit like the old joke about the couple complaining in the restaurant: “The food here? It’s awful! I hate it. And the portions so SMALL!”
I’d still rather have the polls in a different thread. I recognize that some people may want to see new polls constantly, but I find it just increases my anxiety, and isn’t what I’m looking for in this thread. I’ll manage my end by unsubscribing, but I would encourage the mods to rethink the placement of poll posts.
If only there was someway to split the thread in two separate threads.
If only there were a way to not make jerkish passive aggressive posts. This has been discussed and it was decided that poll results are allowed in this discussion.
Moderating: Please no more complaints about polls being in this thread. It is the thread for polls related to Harris.
Also not helpful.