I doubt that a hurricane landfall 40 days before the election will have much impact, especially in Florida where they’re pretty used to it. But one of the provisions of the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 – which is one of the best things Congress has passed in decades – addresses a particular piece of malfeasance that could have occurred previously.
Specifically, previous statutes had a “failed election” clause that said that if voters failed to make a choice on Election Day, then the state’s legislature could award that state’s electors. But the language was so broad that Florida Republicans could have easily used lingering impacts of a hurricane as an excuse to declare a Harris popular vote win as a failed election and unilaterally award the state’s EVs to Trump. The new statutes only allow the state to “modify the period of voting as necessitated by force majeure events that are extraordinary and catastrophic.” So Florida could extend voting beyond election day in that narrowly defined circumstance, but the electors would still have to be awarded based on the results of the popular vote in the state.
Yeah, I was thinking the aftermath of Helene wouldn’t be much of an issue by that point.
If it were within 2 weeks, that might affect the calculus on local elections. And unless this is a totally aberrant year, any hurricanes that late in the season won’t be packing much of a punch.
But within a week of the storm, most people will be back to something resembling normal, if not quite all the way there. And within a month, it’ll be a relatively small number who are still dealing with serious issues. Katrina was a bit of an outlier, but that was probably due more to years of corruption and ineptitude in New Orleans and Louisiana than a general rule.
We’re still in living memory of Bill Clinton being called the “first black President” (initially complimentary but eventually turned into a perjorative by Republicans).
The actual race of the incumbent as indicative (or not) of racism is not supported by the evidence. The evidence rather points to how people perceive how friendly (or not) a candidate is towards people of other races.
Note that Helene IS headed straight for Tallahassee. (Not that we should assume DeSantis will be there—he might have had an urgent need to inspect election infrastructure in Montana, for all we know.)
Harris likely won’t win Florida, sad to say. But it’s not impossible:
As has been noted in this thread, the abortion and marijuana measures on the ballot will bring out voters who might otherwise stay home. It will also be important to watch out for dirty tricks by DeSantis and his colleagues.
Odd, but an old story. Trump is Teflon coated. Many swing voters refuse to accept that his extreme rants are the real Donald. But when another Republican talks smilarly, in a purple state or district, they lose.
In the debate, Harris did a great job of showing us the real Trump, but it is hard work.
I lived in Florida for almost 20 years, 2001-2019, in the Tampa/St. Petersburg region. And this would be my expectation. People who live on the coasts in Florida have a lot of experience dealing with these types of storms. Even bad ones. And things will be back to 99% of normal within a couple of days.
Now there’s always the possibility of an Andrew type of situation, but my on the spot reaction is, this will have close to no effect on the election in florida.
Vice President Harris is giving a speech discussing immigration, and underscoring the bipartisan bill that Trump had killed, along with her experience prosecuting traffickers.
I’m sure it won’t get appropriate attention by the right wing media, but I’m glad that she is directly addressing an issue that republicans have chosen to hammer.
This is great. One of the areas where Democrats have really fallen behind Republicans over the years is in targeting these down ballot races – state legislatures, state courts, etc. And it came to bite them in the ass when Republican-dominated state legislatures passed egregious gerrymanders and voting restrictions.
It’s even better this year because the GOP is very much not doing anything like that since Trump has taken over and sucked up all the money for himself.
I like that they have so much money, not because the money itself is going to matter much, but because they were able to get it in the first place.
To get that much money, it means a lot of people were motivated to donate, and it takes a lot of enthusiasm to give away your own money. That enthusiasm leads to more turnout, and Harris is going to need all she can get. Someone willing to spend money is surely willing to spend the effort to vote.
The fact that the opposite seems to be happening to her opponent suggests less enthusiasm and thus less turnout. So that’s why I am encouraged by this, even if more ads aren’t necessarily going to equate to more votes.
Donald Trump’s current favorable - unfavorable has him under water by 9.6 percent
Joe Biden’s current favorable - unfavorable has him under water by 14.1 percent
Kamala Harris’s current favorable - unfavorable has her above water by 1.1 percent
This is a personal triumph for Harris. While I thought voters would prefer Harris to Biden once she got out a bit from his shadow, I would never have expected this dramatic a divergence from the general unpopularity of the administration of which she is part. It is a personal triumph.
Because of a sour voter mood where many voters blame an international inflation spurt on the administration of which she is part, Harris may lose. But she is doing a stupendous job of keeping it close.