This article in today’s NYT suggests Harris is in trouble in Michigan. (Gift link)
It says both Arabs and Jews are getting cold feet about supporting the Democrats.
The argument “Vote for the party that is okay with what Israel is doing because the other party would be even more okay with what Israel is doing” is not going to mobilize the Arab vote for the D’s.
Articles like that are essentially meaningless when it comes to statewide expectations. Of course they can find frustrated voters to talk to. There will always be some frustrated voters.
The polling shows a small but mostly stable lead in MI for Harris. If the polling is accurate or there’s an error in favor of Harris, she’ll probably win. If not, she may not. That’s all we can say right now.
Though of course it SHOULD mobilize the Arab-American vote for the D’s. Trump is likely to give Netanyahu not only encouragement, but the financial and weapon-supplying support needed to finish a full genocide of every Palestinian they can get their hands on.
And not only that. Harris may not be pushing a cease-fire hard enough for some Arab-Americans, but the idea that they’d be better off under Trump conflicts with the likelihood that he will, once again, attempt to institute a “Muslim Ban.” He’d have plenty of support for that from his white-supremacist, Christian-supremacist MAGA fans and donors.
Logically, of course, it should. But psychologically, it’s like telling someone who’s being whipped, “One party will give you 400 lashes, the other will give you 800 lashes. Choose.” You can hardly blame the person for saying, “I’d rather have zero lashes,” even if that’s not an option.
But I digress since we have countless other Palestine threads and I don’t want to sidetrack this Harris thread.
Our candidates are never going to be as good as Trump is bad, that is just impossible.
Fair enough. No doubt plenty of people have voiced advice to Harris about what she should say and do in order to win the votes of both pro-Netanyahu Jewish voters and pro-Palestinian Muslim voters.
A tough task, without doubt.
It would be easier for a rich man to enter Heaven than for a Kamala to thread the eye of this needle.
I just watched her remarks about 10/7 and as a Jewish American I think she was right on target. They planted a pomegranate tree at the Naval Observatory in remembrance of those lost on that day. She could have been giving High Holy Day remarks. I personally thought it was pure class. It makes me wonder what Trump is saying.
So, in other words, dont vote to the party that is honestly trying to bring peace, vote for the guy who would cheerfully see gaza and Lebanon reduced to a radioactive wasteland.
American and the UN has had gaza peace plan accepted (reluctantly) by Israel, just to have Hamas reject them- becuase of course Hamas doesnt want peace.
Nonsense. Biden is actively working towards a ceasefire. only to have it rejected by Hamas. And the President is not in charge of the aid going to Israel, that is the republican congress.
FWIW the soured Arab vote is reportedly going to Stein not Trump.
In terms of impact it is factored into current polling, if that protest vote holds. Third party protest votes sometimes do but often do not.
This makes me worry Stein could be a spoiler in MI much like Nader was in FL in 2000. There are paths to a win for Harris if she loses MI but they are convoluted. And this would increase Trump’s chance of reelection.
People who vote for Stein were never going to vote for Harris. They know Stein can’t win. “Spoilers” only get the votes of people who would otherwise just stay home.
A bit off-news and off-thread:
Hurricane Milton is growing greatly in strength near Florida as we speak, and it could be even worse than Helene. Is this going to boost or crash the D’s? It could have a 2012 Sandy boost-the-president effect, or a 2005-Katrina-drag-down-the-president effect.
@Elmer_J.Fudd I think you have this wrong. If not for the ongoing war between Israel, Hamas and now Hezbollah, most of the Arab voters in MI would be much more likely to vote for Harris.
Did you read the article I linked? I ask because it mentions multiple people who voted for Biden who now won’t vote for Harris because of US support for Netanyahu.
It seems they are voting for Stein because they don’t see advantage in voting for a party that would allow 1/2 of their friends and relatives to be killed by the IDF as opposed to having most of their friends and relatives killed by the IDF under a Trump administration.
Are you saying they would vote for Harris if Stein or another 3rd party wasn’t on the ballot? The reason they are not voting for Harris is because of US policy NOT because they have another choice.
No, not what I’m saying. They are voting for Stein because they don’t support the Biden Administration on this issue and by extension Harris either.
For the most part they refuse to vote for Trump because they know he would be worse. Yet, in the article I linked several people say they plan to vote for Trump. Go figure.
If there wasn’t another choice I expect they wouldn’t vote for President at all. What do you not understand about that?
The part where it looks like you are blaming a “spoiler” for the loss of those votes. Stein can’t take votes from Harris that Harris has already lost due to US policy in the Middle East.
I thought she came as close as is remotely possible at the convention. I haven’t heard her say anything different since; though I haven’t heard everything she’s said.
This is getting off topic to some degree but it appears your objection is in my calling Stein a spoiler. Isn’t that what all 3rd party candidates actually are?
But the point I was making is much the same as you have said - Harris is losing these voters because of US policy in the Middle East.
This is what I said in a previous post:
If not for the ongoing war between Israel, Hamas and now Hezbollah, most of the Arab voters in MI would be much more likely to vote for Harris.
I think that lines up with what you are saying. My original post with the NYT article linked was about how this issue could result in Harris losing MI.