Kentucky Derby 2026

The Game Room
1

Right now, Renegade is the morning line favourite at 4/1. And he did do a great win in the Arkansas Derby, about a month ago, so should be ready to run.

But his post position–Number 1, on the rail, will make it difficult to deal with the other horses, all of whom want to get closest to the rail, in order to save ground.

I have no predictions or selections at this point. I expect to get a Form with complete Past Performances on Thursday or Friday (4/30//5/1). But I thought I’d start this thread now, just so we can comment on the runup to the race.

2

I’m guessing from your post that there’s no potential Triple Crown winner buzz, correct?

3

Not that I’m aware of. Most horseplayers will look at the Kentucky Derby, then decide from there. If the Derby winner is entered in the Preakness, then we’ll start talking about Triple Crown winners. Until then … well, we don’t.

4

Disregard. I’m fixing the formatting.

5

Fixed.

USA Today has a printable copy of the odds list and post positions:

With odds and gates the current favorites are:

Odds Gate Horse
4-1 1 Renegade
6-1 6 Commandment
6-1 18 Further Ado
8-1 12 Chief Wallabee
10-1 9 The Puma
15-1 15 Emerging Market
15-1 8 So Happy
6

According to a Facebook post, 19 of the 20 horses in the field have Secretariat in their pedigree.

https://www.facebook.com/100044433759619/posts/pfbid0Z4x7jnBH1g7aHfwJRe9Drt1bcm7BZfYwqnaFGfT135hoUCzHuXhoAdBe8cHHM4hxl

7

But is the Kentucky Derby still decadent and depraved? :smiley:

8

That was written in June 1970. Dust Commander, ridden by Mike Manganello from Hartford CT, had just won the Kentucky Derby; Personality, ridden by Eddie Belmonte of Puerto Rico, had just won the Preakness; and High Echelon ridden by John Rotz from Niantic IL, had just won the Belmont.

9

I may be completely jaded with twenty other types of entertainment (and I suspect the number is considerably higher), but I always have time for the Triple Crown. I like watching this spectacle in a way that I never liked the Indy 500 or the French Open or the World Series. It manages the rare feat of both firmly holding onto its traditions without becoming absolutely insufferable and being dominated by lots of tremendously wealthy people who haven’t lost their humanity. Seriously, in all the hours I’ve watched these extravaganzas, I haven’t once had the desire to punch anyone in the face. (And these are primarily NBC personalities! Have I ranted about Matt Iseman and Akbar Gbajabiamila enough yet?) It’s one of the rare things in this country that’s become an famous, highly lucrative institution but doesn’t feel the need to be constantly, obnoxiously in-your-face about it, like, say, the Christmas season, the NFL, right wing punditry, and the disturbing cults surrounding an extremely few specific dead music stars. You won’t find a shrieking Twitter argument about mint juleps or some overpaid windbag on AM radio blathering about the unfair advantage of nose bandages. Besides that, it’s just a fun ride all around, all the facts and figures I don’t see very often, the always creative costumes, the updating of the odds heading to post time, the breathless news announcements, the interviews, and the relentless partying by the fans.

I think the main reason is the simplest one: it involves horses. These are tremendously sensitive creatures which require a lot of work, care, and resources to develop into contenders. They have a myriad of needs, and there are no shortcuts or quick fixes. There are a lot of highly skilled experts involved in the making of a racehorse too, from breeders to trainers to groomers, and of course jockeys, so people skills are a must as well. Bellowing tyrants, slimy creeps, and outright abusers have absolutely no place here, and for those that do step out of line, the hammer of condemnation comes down hard. This is a just a much nicer game than the NFL, the NBA, the NHL, or even figure skating and gymnastics until recently. And no, I’m under no illusion that the owners (and ownership groups) have more money than I’ll ever fantasize about having and have never faced my problems, but if I do have to see the mega-wealthy on the screen, at least let them be the ones who still have genuine respect for others and understand what a public persona is.

All right! Recording the whole shebang and starting in on it Saturday night, per usual! Don’t mind spoilers, I’m not hardcore or anything! :slightly_smiling_face:

10

Some commentary on the horses entered. No particular order; just going from the top down.

1 RENEGADE. Performed nicely in the GI Arkansas Derby, and closed well at slightly shorter. Stretches a little here, and should be the one to beat, but will be hampered by bad starting gate position.

2 ALBUS. Should not be discounted. Last two outings (04Apr26, Aqu; 27Feb26, Tam), he performed nicely at slightly shorter distance. Certainly can close in the stretch.

6 COMMANDMENT. Nice morning line odds, but I’m unsure if they are justified. Yes, won Florida Derby, but PP line shows a struggle at 1.125 miles. Going longer today to 1.25 miles. Worth considering, but consider others too.

8 SO HAPPY. I rather like this one. Did nicely in SA Derby 04Apr26, won going away. Should do well with Smith up.

10 WONDER DEAN. Dark horse? Only raced in UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan. Did okay there, nothing outstanding. Untested in North America. Question mark.

12 CHIEF WALLABEE. Touted by some commentators, but looking at his PPs, I’m not impressed. Can he? Sure. Against this competition? Not sure.

14 POTENTE. Really liked the look of him in SA Derby 04Apr26. Only placed there, but fought all the way and made it look easy. Definitely a contender here.

18 FURTHER ADO. Very impressive in GI Blue Grass Stk, 11 Kee, 04Apr26. Won going away by a large margin (11 lengths), so one to watch here.

Just some comments for now. I may have selections later; I need to go over the Form first. At any rate, I hope my comments help, and good luck with your own selections.

11

Here are the entries listed on Equibase:

➜ https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/CD050226USA12-EQB.html ■

@Spoons you introduced me to that site. Thanks again.

12

Just got a text from a knowledgeable buddy. His selections are 6-12-18 in a box. Reasonable, for now, I will want to see paddock and post parades before finalizing.

13

I’m rooting for Golden Tempo, because id love to see a woman trainer win. Failing that, I’ll take Chief Wallabee because we have an indirect personal of connection to Bill Mott. Or his kid Riley (don’t remember his horses names).

Or So Happy with Mike Smith, oldest jockey.

14

I like the Great White.

Or So Happy. Mike Smith should get this.

These are choices of the heart. Nothing else.

15

Accckkk. Great White went over.

Scratched

16

Golden Tempo.

17

Good odds too. Dang, if only …

18

My favorite came in fourth.

19

Anyone bet on Ocelli(sp?) 70-1 odds to win, can’t find show odds in a quick search.

Brian

20

First female trainer to win!!