Nice trick, glee. I was just about to say, “I’ll bet Randi found a way to weasel out of the $1,000,000”. Turns out, I was right. At least Randi was respectful towards dowsers, that was nice to see.
Welcome to the Ignore List, btw. (Whee! I never used that function before!)
Sorry, but this is how predictions work. In other words…not very well, since the only reliable predictions come from dreams (inherently symbolic, and rarely reveal the future at all) and the lunatic writings of deranged madmen.
Perhaps, if science ever understands the methodology of how premonitions work, we can FOCUS that energy in a usefully precognitive way, like how fire was eventually harnessed into rocket power and atom bombs (impossible concepts for prehistoric man to conceive!)
Hate to ask this, but…cite?
And doesn’t NYC have a much larger Jewish population than Jerusalem itself? In fact, doesn’t NYC have the largest Jewish population in any city in the world? (Correct me if I’m wrong…don’t have time to look it up right now.)
“The Beast” can refer to any sworn enemy of Israel, IMO (so if the planes were hijacked by the KKK, specifically to target black people, it wouldn’t follow.)
I predict that maybe there will possibly be some repercussions for this bit of utter idiocy.
Possibly.
Tel Aviv does, actually, if you count the surrounding metropolitan area.
I don’t have a cite for this, but long ago I read a book that interpreted the writings of Nostradamus. One of the predictions was for an asteroid to strike the Indian Ocean in 1998. I remember that specifically, because I was going to watch for it. (I read this book sometime in the 80’s, I think.) Well, 1998 came and went, no asteroid. Six years later, we got a tsunami instead. (Which, if you think about it, caused exactly the same kind of damage an asteroid would, assuming the asteroid was very small and not a planet-killer.) I’m not claiming that was an accurate interpretation, but I did find it very compelling.
I have violent, disturbing dreams all the time. They don’t bother me, unlike most people. (Sorry, I forgot to mention that part.) And yes, I did have a (possibly) precognitive dream recently – the name/age/situation of the character I talked about earlier in this thread. (Which technically doesn’t count as a premonition, since the website already existed, I just didn’t know about it. What do call that phenomenon? ESP? Clairvoyance?)
Uhh…no offense, but I’m having a difficult time parsing your sentence. Are you talking about the choice to believe in psychic powers? Because that’s obvious: You choose to believe, or you choose not to believe.
Inductive reasoning. Lots and lots of Analogy. Patterns that build on each other, and stand the test of time. Coincidences that recur on a regular basis. Specific names, dates, and color patterns. And so on. In other words, whatever seems to work.
BTW…do you believe in Karma? If so, can you prove it actually exists? (Anyone else, feel free to answer as well.)
Enough already, KGS. It doesn’t matter how much, if at all, yoiu use the Ignore function. Using it is your choice; informing the world at large, and your target, that you ignore anything they say is a defnite problem. Argue cleanly or don’t bother.
Do not use the Ignore function as a tactic against other posters again. Consider this a warning.
TVeblen
Heh…that’s always a monkey wrench in every conversation, including mundane ones – do you count only the city limits, or the entire metro area?
Huh?? WTF, is glee a serial killer or something? :eek:
That’s creepy, dude.
Umm…okay. 
(sending email shortly)
It wasn’t accurate but you found it compelling? What’s the standard? If the earthquake/tsunami had happened 20 years after 1998, would it still be compelling? How similar does it have to be?
And if you ever find out which quatrain made the prediction, please let me know. I’d like to try to read it in the original French.
Without greater detail, I wouldn’t call it anything, for lack of information. There are several possible solutions I can suggest, with coincidence and subconscious advance knowledge being on the list. Is there a way to disprove either of these?
My question was prompted by your statement:
…and in response to my question about your personal philosophy and if a different personal philosophy (one based largely on the scientific method) was simply an arbitrary choice, and if so, how was your philosophy better? My point, and I don’t think it was especially obscure, was that if you could choose to believe in psi, how is that a better choice than someone who chooses not to believe in psi? The “choice is never arbitrary” (which to me defeats the entire purpose of having a choice) statement prompted my question. No offense taken.
What in your opinion, seems to be working? If psi research builds on itself (as science does), is 21st-century psi more advanced than 18th-century psi? What feats are being accomplished by modern psychics that were unmanageable by, say, Nostradamus or the authors of Revelation?
Probably not, but if you tell me your definition of the word, I can be more specific.
I’ll see what I can find, but I don’t have the book anymore. (And I’m pretty sure that prediction was expunged from all future editions after 1998, heh. Which will make an Internet search very challenging.) As for similarity…well, six years off isn’t bad, for a quatrain written in the 16th century. Indeed, it’s nearly a direct hit. Remember, we’re dealing with horseshoes and hand grenades here.
Coincidence – that’s a HELL of a coincidence, don’t you think? Some people may dismiss it as such, but in accordance with my philosophy, there’s no way I can treat it as mere coincidence.
Subconsious Preknowledge – this is a good one. I certainly don’t remember reading that page before, and my Internet habits make it unlikely that I’ve ever seen that page before…but, it is possible. And yes, the subconscious mind works in mysterious ways, you never know what it will swallow up, and spit back at you. 
Ok, I took “arbitrary” to mean something like, reading a menu and choosing a dish at random. As for which is better…that depends on the individual. One choice is not inherently better than the other, when applied to all people.
In a nutshell, you do something bad to someone, and later on, something bad happens to you, in a manner that has no logical connection to the bad thing you did previously, and yet you recognize that there is, in fact, a connection.
How did Randi “weasel out of the $1,000,000” exactly?
CMC fnord!
TVeblen – thanks for the email. Sorry, wasn’t aware of that rule. Technical foul, my bad.
(Going off to re-read the Pit Rules again…)
KGS –
I’m still confused. Predictions work by shoe-horning an event into a given prediction, after the fact (meaning, after the event has occurred)? And in what sense can predictions that “rarely reveal the future at all” or are “lunatic” or “deranged” be in any sense considered “reliable”? I’m not busting your chops here; I don’t get what your criteria are for what constitutes a prediction (much less a reliable prediction), or how you know (or why you believe) a particular prediction is/has been valid. For example, you list the Revelation/9-11 thing as an apparent example of a valid prediction, but simultaneously admit that “it could mean anything” and part “makes no sense at all.” So how could it be taken as an example of a valid prediction? This makes no sense to me.
I said “…what is generally understood is that the “Great City,” spiritually decayed to a “Sodom” or an “Egypt,” is Jerusalem, the city outside of which Jesus Christ was crucified. (Jesus Christ being the obvious best candidate as Lord of these two messengers, who afterward ascend into Heaven.)”
. . . to which you reply . . .
Sure. You show me yours and I’ll show you mine.
Cites for the proposition that the “Great City” in Revelation 11:8 is Jerusalem:
Jamieson, Fausset & Brown, Commentary at p. 1557: “‘where . . . Lord was crucified’ – This identifies the city as Jerusalem, though the Lord was crucified outside the city.”
bibletools.org: “In Revelation 11:8, Jerusalem is referred to as ‘the great city’.”
revelationcommentary.org: “The great city = can be none other than Jerusalem for reasons to follow.”
and even:
Not to mention that the best cite is the text itself which says either “and their dead bodies shall lie in the street of the great city, which spiritually is called Sodom and Egypt, where also our Lord was crucified” (King James Version) or “their bodies will lie in the street of the great city, which is figuratively called Sodom and Egypt, where also their Lord was crucified.” (NIV version.) Regardless of whether the Lord is “ours” (meaning John’s, and Christianity’s) or “theirs” (meaning the messengers, who are clearly from God, later being assumed into Heaven) – it is clear that the “Lord” who was crucified – not symbolically, figure-of-speech crucified, but literally, nailed-to-a-cross crucified – was Jesus Christ. And Christ died at Jerusalem, not in New York.
Now I’d like to see your citations for the assertion that Rev. 11:8 refers to 9/11, please.
Would you say an event with a likelihood of one in 14 million is a HELL of a coincidence? Yet people do win lotteries with even longer odds than that. You’ve pulled one memorable event from your life, but you’re not telling us about the many many more boring mundane events (i.e. the losing lottery tickets).
Do people with philosophies different from your suffer from ignorance or prejudice?
It’s just a working theory.
In that case, no, I don’t believe in the karmic connection. Bad things happen to everybody, sooner or later (the worst being the individual’s eventual death, I guess) but if there’s no link to one’s earlier actions (i.e. the person you wronged injures you in an act of revenge), I don’t see a reason to invent one.
I believe I’ve been consistent (or, at least, I’ve tried to be consistent) with my assertion that predicting the future is not 100% reliable, and that any psychic who tells you they can predict the future with certainty is a fraud. (That’s how you can detect the frauds, btw.) There’s exceptions, like tarot card readers and the occasional astrologer. But even those fields are ones that “real” psychics consider suspect, and a lot of their predictions are filled with symbolism and imprecise details, anyway. You know, the typical horoscope page, where any of the 12 signs could apply to you, if read a certain way.
Even that premonition I spoke of earlier, gave no specific information about which subway station the fire occurred at. (In my dream, it was Los Angeles…but they didn’t have a metro yet, this was back in '87.)
Fair enough, point taken.
I’m finding lots of conspiracy theorist websites, which I don’t think you want; here’s one that appears to be somewhat rational:
http://www.bibletime.com/date/Sept11/revelation/index.html
If I ever win the lottery, I will let you know if it felt like random coincidence, or if it was pre-ordained. 
You’re asking if other people suffer from prejudice? Certainly, some do. Jews, Muslims, even Christians occasionally. Wiccans, most definitely. However, there’s not a lot of anti-religion prejudice in this country – at least, compared to racial & anti-gay prejudice, which I don’t think you were referring to.
Okay, that’s fine. I just find it interesting, that a lot of non-Buddhist Americans, including many Dopers, sometimes refer to having a belief in Karma. As well as, the “rule of threes”, and Deja Vu. Interesting, how some “superstitions” persist in our culture? I think that means there’s something to them, especially since we stopped worshipping the sun centuries ago.
I didn’t say it was plagiarised, only that it would look plagiarised. Anyway, if it’s so vague then I’m afraid there just isn’t anything special about it.
You forgot the visual similarities between the album covers and the fact that the albums both have “Island” in the title.
I think you may have missed the point I was making, and you actually go on to make it for me. I found patterns because I looked for them. Humans look for patterns all the time, mainly unconsciously, so they’re not even aware they’re doing it. Can you not see that your coincidence with your novel and the poem is just a case of you looking for, and finding, patterns? Random patterns.
The patterns are always there, they must be, it would be very strange if, in a universe of random events, some didn’t form patterns. Spit out a million random numbers and there will be numerous patterns.
People who believe that the patterns have some kind of “meaning”, attribute the patterns to the meaning they believe in. People who realise the patterns are random, say, “huh, cool coincidence” and move on. Patterns like these reinforce people’s beliefs in psychic phenomena, but are not proof, or even evidence of psychic phenomena.
This kind of self supporting thought process goes beyond things like psychics. It can be seen in everyday life. Two people work for the same employer. The employer treats both people equally. Sometimes the people have bad experiences from the employer and sometimes good.
One of the people is predisposed to think that others are against him, and are trying to hinder him. The other person tends to think that others have good intentions and are either trying to help or, at least, are not actively trying to hinder.
The first person interprets his treatment from his employer as negative. He tends to ignore, or forget, anything good the employer does, and simmers over all the bad things they do. The other person interprets his treatment as positive. Bad experiences with the employer are attributed to ignorance rather than malice, and forgotten, good experiences are remembered.
The point, in case it’s not clear, is that we all interpret the world in a way that fits the world view we already have. You would be well advised to realise when you are doing this, and try and guard against it. Was something really a psychic event or was it just one neat coincidence nestled in among millions of non-coincidences.
Consider that for the one or two neat coincidences we have, there are an infinite number of other moments in our life where nothing special happens. We have thousands of dreams, surely at least one of them must eventually have some resemblance to the events of the next day.
This is an intriguing topic. Can you explain more about the unconscious seeking of patterns? How prevelant it is, and how these unconscious patterns influence daily life? Not the meaning per se, but the effect patterns have on human minds.
Sometimes, I deliberately look for patterns. First time I did this, they were everywhere. It was way too overwhelming. Eventually, I learned to seek out only specific patterns, connections drawn from a fairly small list of items to look for. And even then, the specific “hits” had to be multiple, not singular. If there’s only one or two “hits” per incident, it automatically gets ruled out as mere coincidence. And it’s really not about predicting the future, either. It’s merely determining how such things are connected, in a non-linear fashion. Most of the time, it’s just something I do to entertain myself.
I don’t think so. I looked at a dozen Google hits of individuals with the same name (it’s a very common name) and none of them had anything close to the “hit” the first page had. I’m sure, if I tried to force the patterns to make sense, I would have found more. I really wasn’t looking for patterns, though. I was looking for where the name came from, if perhaps it was a famous person (that’s why “Andrew Sullivan” had to be changed) or, more critically, the name of a major character in a novel with a similar subject matter, which of course would be a BIG problem legally. I wasn’t looking for psychic connections at all, I was seeking real-world ones.
I don’t quite follow your train of logic here. The employer story is a matter of perspective, yes I follow that. Whether patterns have meaning or not, is more a matter of belief, and feeling the connection. Yes, there is some perspective involved. But what’s really important is the sensation the connection creates.
It’s very hard to describe, especially to someone who has never felt the same sensation. Kind of like imagining what it’s like to take Ecstasy, or LSD, or angel dust, for someone who’s never taken it. Or trying to describe what it’s like to raise your first child, to someone who’s never had children.
I just can’t imagine a life where, most of the time, “nothing special happens”. That would be so BORING! How can one even cope?
(Well-written post, btw. You really made me think about a few things.)
I’m a wee bit confused, but, using the same reasoning, couldn’t I claim that 9/11 was predicted much more accurately by the famus psych(ot)ic Tom Clancy ? :rolleyes:
More white noise. Let’s just focus on your claim to have been denied the liberty to believe what you want. Substantiate that, please.