Good sign for Democrats for the upcoming GA special election.
As of now:
Ron Estes Rep. 63,505 52.5%
James Thompson Dem. 55,310 45.7
Chris Rockhold Lib. 2,082 1.7
Yeah, good thing the national party didn’t waste any money on this race. :mad:
Democrats just don’t care. They literally DO. NOT. CARE. You have to win seats in order to influence policy and, once again, they don’t give a shit. Let the Republicans run right over you, no big deal. Was Biden super busy? Obama maybe could take five minutes on Richard Branson’s private island to cut a robo phone call? Ugh.
Would this actually help? Did Thompson do that well in spite of the national party’s absence or because of it?
Fair point. I said Obama/Biden because there seems to be a lot of sentiment for them.
Either way, they should have laid down more money. They basically said, “We can’t win here, so why bother?” It’s indicative of a larger, prevailing Can’t Do attitude, IMO.
Just saw this on TV, so I’ll paraphrase: in a 2005 special election in OH, before the big Democratic wave of 2006, the Democratic candidate performed 23 points ahead of Bush in 2004. In this 2017 special election, the Democratic candidate performed 22 points ahead of Trump.
At the very least this is a positive sign. Hopefully the DNC and the party at large will take this as a sign to contest every single seat that was within 30 points or so in 2016.
I’m guessing that what we saw here was an enthusiasm gap. The Republican base is beginning to realize that voting for Trump has not, in fact, scored them a supermodel in every bed, and are disgusted with the whole process. The Democrats, meanwhile (meaning the members of the party on the ground, not the national organization) desperately need something, anything, to do, and so are turning out more than usual.
And yes, the national party absolutely should have done something here. Hopefully, this will be a wakeup call for them.
I did see a (maybe) good argument on Daily Kos about why the national party didn’t get involved in KS-04 – big national involvement nationalizes the whole race, and makes it much easier for the Republican candidate to pitch it as “me against Nancy Pelosi”. Such races (when they’re special elections and not part of the normal national election cycle) might be better approached as “sneak attacks”, not national party efforts.
I don’t know if that’s absolutely correct (and it’s kind of impossible to know for sure – maybe national involvement, and Biden and Obama showing up, would have motivated a higher Republican turnout, for example), but it’s reasonable to think about.
There are some places out of reach and this is one. If Republicans win such a safe seat by 52-47, they’ll get annihilated in any place other than blood red districts in 2018. Nancy Pelosi can start to build up her gavel muscles again.
Trump’s tweet about the result is impressive. “Great win,” “easily winning,” “Dems…spent heavily,” and “Dems…predicted victory” are all at least arguably false.
Strikes me as a bit of post-hoc logic, although it’s probably not actually false. I don’t really think you can blame the national party for not wanting to invest heavily in a district that regularly goes 2:1 for Republicans. There’s such a thing as triage. That said, I did drop $50 on Thompson and I don’t consider it wasted, since I figured the odds were pretty damn poor and he actually made more of a race of it than I expected.
Roughly there were around 100,000 Republicans who voted in November and stayed home for this special election while there are only about 30,000 Dem voters in the same boat. It’s counterintuitive, but because of this large disparity more effort to get out the D vote could actually lead to a bigger R victory.
Any advertising that raises the profile this race is going to remind people on both sides that this race is going on and that they should get out and vote. A magically effective ad that got 100% of those Dems back to the polls would have been a net loss for team D if it reminded just 31% of republican voters to get out and vote.
Well the counter argument to that is you wouldn’t have to spend money on broadcasting ads. It could be used for targeted mailings, call centers and in person outreach.
The point is that anything thing you try to do to reach people on your side is going to be noticed by some fraction of people on the other side and when there’s a lot more people on the other side you can end up working against yourself because of this.
The big story is the small story. About how Daily Kos got on board even when the national Dems wouldn’t. And the small donations flowed in. I have seen the future, and it is small. With this kind of set-up, I can donate, three bucks to this guy, ten for Bernie, five for Lizzy Warren. Now that ain’t a lot of money, the Pubbies will always swamp that. But its a demonstration project, and it shows promise. Groovy.
I get that point, I was just saying it’s possible to mitigate that concern.
I bet they won’t.
You know, I’ll take what I have to say to the Pit.
I think that was a big factor in the 2009 special election I mentioned above. Owens ran as the local candidate who was going to represent the district. Hoffman seemed to be running in order to represent the national Tea Party movement.
This was a victory for the DEMs, this county is ruby red and it shouldn’t have been anywhere near this close (think San Francisco liberal winning by only 7 against “Mike Pence-like person” crazy, haha).
I still think the “heartland” has to (unfortunately) suffer a little longer with more absurd republican ideas being shoved into law (i.e. millions losing health insurance) before we will start seeing true breakdown of the “republican tribalism” that’s so unfortunately prevalent in so much of white America (the “I will vote R no matter what” people). Fingers crossed for 2018!