Latest Iraq poll: 47% approve attacks on US forces

Great Debates
1

If the latest poll can be believed even half of our nominal allies (the Shia) want us to leave. 70% overall. 41% of them approve of attacks (47% of population overall). If Kurds are excluded the figures are much worse.

I really don’t know what we should do. Okay, I thought the war was stupid and the aftermath incompetent but could see why we couldn’t cut and run. But we’re not trusted, not wanted and Iraqi’s think things would get better if we leave and don’t believe we’d leave if asked.

What reason is there for staying? Maybe now is the time to call it a day? Say 2 years and we’re gone, no permanent bases, nothing. Just go. We’re not only not wanted, we’re actively hated and making things worse in their eyes.

Iraq: 47% approve attacks on US forces

2

(You mean 3, right? If coalition troops pulled out even as soon as spring 2006, and I don’t think they could possibly leave any faster, that would be three years since the initial invasion. Or are you advocating withdrawal 2 years from now?)

I think the only really persuasive reason for staying now is the same as it ever was: because the coalition troops reduce the chance of seriously increased instability or outright civil war.

It may be true, though, that the coalition troops’ presence is doing as much harm as good, or more.

I don’t know, to be honest. I gave up having an opinion about the best direction for US policy in Iraq sometime in summer 2003, when it became clear that we had no effective plan for occupation and rebuilding. At that point, I no longer felt I could identify any course of action that didn’t have a substantial risk of doing more harm than good.

As somebody commented, “Sometimes when you drive your car off a cliff, there simply are no good options on the way down.”

3

Meant 2 years from now as that is the 70% mark in the poll. Split half and half between those wanting us pissing off soon and pissing off within 2 years.

I like the car crash analogy. Have a feeling you’re right. There just aren’t any good options. I guess the inference that violence isn’t aimed at the govt and that there is no support for civ attacks or on iraqi forces suggest that if we pulled out they wouldn’t be at each other’s throats.

It looks more and more to me that we are the cause of the violence not the cure and the best thing we could do is set a timetable. It’s what they want us to do.

Jeez - even a fair percentage of the Kurds hate us.

4

The negatives of a complete withdrawal that isn’t based on the situation in the country is the possibility that we will be dealing with Saddam II 20 years from now.

I think there is some positive in the link, though. And that is only 7% of all questioned support attacks on Iraqi security forces, and only 1% support attacks on Iraqi civilians.

And, I in fact agree with those who think that the withdrawal of U.S. forces will improve the Iraqi state. There is a strong sentiment in Iraq that is anti-U.S., or more specifically anti-occupation. People don’t like being occupied. Eventhough it is likely twenty years from now if there is an Iraqi state that is democratic and properly functioning, the Iraqis will in huge part owe that to the United States, that doesn’t change the fact in the here and now from their viewpoint it does make sense to want the United States gone. The United States forces are the target of most of the insurgency’s actions, and in these actions many Iraqis have died as “collateral damage” both when bombings hit civilians and when the U.S. accidentally kills civilians in attempts to strike at insurgents.

The problem is, as legitimate as all of that is, there’s still the very real fact that if the U.S. withdraws too soon the new state could simply collapse due to not being able to defend itself. The new Iraqi state is going to be forged in fire, simple as that. And while the U.S. was needed to knock Saddam out of power, only the Iraqis can truly make something of their country, as the old saying goes, “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink.” However they do need us to lead them there, and I’m not sure we’re at the proverbial water quite yet.

The biggest day for the New Iraqi troops will be when the United States forces are gone. What happens next? Well, I do not doubt that the insurgency is going to attack the New Iraqi Army with incredible vigor. If the New Iraqi Army survives this first wave of attacks (and I believe they will once they have reached self-sufficiency) the big question then, is does the insurgency continue and basically wage civil war, or does it begin to die? Without the rallying point of distaste for the American occupation, will the insurgency be able to keep going? These polls suggest it would lose an immense amount of support, as the vast majority of poll respondents do not support attacking Iraqi security forces.

The people who think Iraq is already a failed venture are extremely short sighted, those who think we’ve already won are equally short-sighted. The true test will be when Iraq is let out on its own. Will it sink or swim? That’s something that will becoming apparent quite rapidly at that point, probably in a matter of months. Because if the insurgency shows signs of being resilient as a serious fighting force months or years after U.S. withdrawal, then the problems with Iraq will cause extreme division in that country for many years.

If, however, the insurgency loses vast support because it is no longer seen as being a justified anti-occupation force, then it may point to a brighter day for Iraq. An Iraq that will probably have to deal with pockets of armed resistance, but probably not be any worse off than several other countries that have to deal with such things (Russia being an example.)

5

I guess it’s encouraging that only 1% of Iraqi civilians support attacks on Iraqi civilians. Gotta kinda worry about that 1% though.

I agree the insurgency will largely loose support and its purpose for existing and go home after the US pulls out. But in the long run I don’t think that the insurgency is the greatest threat to Iraq, rather sectarian fighting between ethnic and religious groups, who so far have been forced to play more or less nice by the presence of the US army.

6

Not surprising, though I’d like to see a few more polls over time before I drew any hard conclusions. The 70% wanting us to leave is certainly not surprising when coupled with the overwhelming belief that things would get better if the US left.

Nor is it surprising that 41% approve attacks on the US (of course, this means that 59% don’t you know), especially when you look at the very high percentage of Sunni who feel that way. If you exclude them (since you wanted to exclude the Kurds the other way) then the over all percentage drops. I don’t know what this means as they are there, but since you wanted to exclude Kurdish numbers I figured I’d turn it around.

The Iraqi’s polled obviously are under the impression that if the US leaves the insurgents will stop attacking. Will this happen? Gods know but I’m not as sure this is the case. Just because people polled THINK something doesn’t mean its true. I have no doubt that the majority of Iraqi’s today think that if the US leaves things will get better. Thats not something I would base a serious policy on though. I’m sure the majority of Palestinians think that things for them would be better if Israel were a smoking hole in the ground too…doesn’t mean it will work out that way though.

Should we go reguardless of the situation, reguardless of whether or not the Iraqi military is prepared to take up the slack, reguardless of whether or not the Iraqi government has asked us to go?

That said I’d be surprised if the US still has a significant force in Iraq 2 years from now. I will be surprised if the US doesn’t start drawing down in fact THIS year.
What should we do? Damned if I know at this point. I don’t think we should draw our Iraqi policy on a poll of Iraqi citizens though. Now, if the Iraqi government wants us to leave and requests that we leave, and sets a timetable that we leave…well, thats something you can certainly make a policy around. Afaik the Iraqi government hasn’t made any noises along those lines though. That said I think we should look to draw down our forces starting within the next 6 months with the goal of being mostly out of Iraq by years end…assuming the Iraqi military is ready for prime time in that time frame of course. Hopefully they will be able to pick up the slack, and more hopefully the Iraqi citizens polled are correct that things will get better when the US leaves. Otherwise they may look back on the last few years wistfully…

-XT

7

This is not exactly an earthquake in Iraqi public opinion. Ever since we first arrived, the Iraqi people have wanted us out, or have at least wanted a timetable for our withdrawing. The supporters of the insurgency may be slightly more numerous than they were in 2003 or 2004, but the central fact is obvious. There won’t be any presence of civil government while the U.S. Army is doing most of the enforcing. The Iraqi public is simply too hostile to a foreign occupation force.

I would also be interested to learn how these polls of Iraqis are taken. In America we have procedures for picking poll respondents from around the country, to guarantee that all demographic groups are represented equally. I wonder whether the Iraqi polls include respondents from regions controlled by the Sunni insurgents? Or respondents from towns where violence is a daily occurence?

All in all, it looks to me like more evidence for ending the U.S. presence in Iraq as quickly as possible.

8

But the extremely strong antipathy towards anything but attacks on the US could suggest that the threat of sectarian violence is exaggerated.

Sure the small Al-Q franchise is doing its best to ignite one, but as the poll shows, it’s not working. They’d find themselves totally isolated if the insurgency dies down with a withdrawal.

And if the USA wants permanent bases, and I think it probably does, then it’s going to continue fostering a belief in Civil war. And as DTC so rightly says often - the poltico’s want us there so they can continue to pick our pockets.

9

47% approve of attacks (41% of Shia’s eg - nearly half those we consider our friends) - and 88% of Sunni.

I don’t think there is any comfort to be drawn from nearly half the population supporting attacks.

10

Looks sound to me but I’m not a trained statistician. I expect the University of Maryland people are though.

11

Who considers the Shia our friends? A rather large percentage (obviously aprox 41%) have always been opposed to our invasion. Hell, several of their militia groups were in open revolt and open confrontation with the US.

The surprising thing (to me) is that ONLY 41% of the Shia approve of attacks. The Sunni numbers aren’t surprising at all…the majority of those Iraqi insurgents come from the Sunni, the Sunni were in power before the US invasion and they have seen their lot in life significantly lowered with all this invasion and forced democracy and all. Again, the surprising thing is that ONLY 88% approve…I’d have thought it would be in the high 90’s at a guess.

We invaded their country and occupied it for over 2 years. Our invasion deposed an entire group from power, power they had held for decades. This sparked a rather nasty insurgency that has hurt and killed thousands of Iraqi’s. Of COURSE they are resentful and pissed off…and when polled they are going to respond emotionally. The surprising thing is that, inspite of all that, and inspite of all the bad shit we have done, the fuckups and deliberate cruelties, that less that half the population as a whole approves of attacks directly against us. That boggles the mind and to me throws into some question how valid this poll really was…because frankly I would have thought the numbers would be much higher against the US than what you’ve stated. If these numbers are true than I would draw a much different set of conclusions that what you are drawing in your OP tagos.

-XT