I was wrong and misspoke. I’ll amend my former statement to be more clear.
A poll that depends on personal response always carries the risk of willful sabotage by a respondent deliberately lying. However, data can be gathered to support points in ways other than personal polls, which can minimize or even eliminate this risk. Of course, those other ways may introduce new risk factors.
But we’re beginning to stray from the point of this thread, and if we’re willing to agree that this poll has a certain amount of merit, we can step aside and see where this ends up going.
Actually, it does no such thing, and your claim that it is attempting something which it expressly says it is not, demonstrates massive ignorance–either willfull or unavoidable.
Opal is smart enough to know that the numbers will be useless. She was very clear about that. She is also wise enough to have not linked either the poll or its potential results to any specific “hypothesis.”
Rather, in response to claims made or implied in another thread that rapes and assaults were rare, she provided an “applause meter” method to indicate that rapes and assaults were or were not as rare as some “gut feelings” would lead some to believe.
As such, only deliberate sabotage will actually skew the “results.” Barring some poster who is so intent on demonstrating the perfidy of men (or women) that they logged off and on to AOL or some other random assigner of IPs multiple times (or someone who is so intent on making an irrelevant point that they vote when they have no business participating), the “poll” will probably provide a general idea as to whether few or many women feel that they have been victims of sexual assault. The basis for that conclusion is that it is a lot of work to play games with the poll, and no one attempting to play games can be sure that their efforts will be successful, which reduces the likelihood that very many people will deliberately attempt to destroy the poll. Of course, there’s always one. . . .
That, in the first couple of hours there were 42 affirmative responses does not indicate anything when compared to the number of negative responses. All sorts of factors will pre-dispose the affirmative numbers to be higher than would be found in a good poll that was set up with proper safeguards. However, the very fact that there were 42 affirmative responses in that short of a time–when the poll has for a population only generally educated and probably non-poor women who happen to participate in the SDMB and is further limited to those women who happen to read the Pit in the middle of the afternoon (North American time) would suggest to some people that assault is not that rare.
The numbers will be useless in terms of any legal or sociological examination. The general thrust of the poll will–barring mindless sabotage–provide a talking point for the general likelihood of women to have been assaulted.
It is, of course, possible, that more than one twit deliberately tried to skew the results. However, that sort of thing is more likely in a poll that has gone on for several days with people taking an interest in having one side or another “win.” At this early stage, I suggest that Opal’s effort has already achieved its goal.
Oh, for god’s sake, everybody get the cockleburrs out of your panties. This is just getting stupid.
Yes, we all freely admit that Opal’s poll is not a statistically viable piece of hard data. She said as much in the OP. We all know that people might* be lying, voting multiple times, or any number of things which can skew the results. (By the way Rhum Runner, you could have just pointed out that possibility. Lying in the poll and then gloating about was a piece of truly magnificent assholery.)
Since we’re all in agreement about how scientific this little exercise is, can we move along to the next point, please?
A lot of people here seem to think, and I agree, that it’s an interesting exercise with potentially surprising results. A lot of men seem to think they don’t come into regular contact with someone who’s been through a rape or sexual assault, and they’re just dead wrong. It’s just one of those things that make you go hmmm, all right?
So can we please stop bickering over the validity of the poll and discuss the whole point of the thread, please?
I’ll go find an outside cite that members of the SDMB were raped.
What good would it do? People can lie in polls.
I’ve never said ‘because I said so’ as an argument for anything.
I’ve asked you for a good method for determining the true beta-without-the-hat rape-likelihood-in-a-lifetime stat, and you haven’t provided anything. So yes, I’m familiar with the ‘cite’ tool.
The post you’re responding to was making an ironic point that if we’re talking about relaying personal experiences (as any rape poll necessarily would), nothing can ever be foolproof. Following your logic, then, we may as well never even try. You missed it.
Incidentally, I prefer GQ to GD, because in my experience in GQ people are more interested in determining the truth, whereas in GD they seem more interested in winning arguments.
I believe that getting someone to the other side of the fence is not that easy. But that it is possible for someone to see what is on the other side of the fence and gain an appreciation for that perspective. In my experience, people DO change their minds - even about the big things like abortion, god, and politics - much less the little things like the prevelence of rape. Its seldom so jarring as one experience - but the sum of the experiences a person has that makes them change their opinion.
So the OP admits that the poll is not scientific, and that the numbers don’t mean anything, but goes on to suggest that it should still convince “those assholes” to “open their eyes.” Why on earth should that be the case?
This is exactly the kind of BS I am talking about. The poll suggests NOTHING of the kind! You can NOT draw any conclusions, suggestions, or conjectures from this poll about the SDMB, the United States or any other population.
see, that’s the thing - If a man has gotten this far in life (old enough to post here), and believes that they don’t come into regular contact w/some one who’s been through a rape or sexual assault, I don’t think that the poll as conducted here will convince them that they’re wrong. they’ll continue to believe that the women of the SDMB are some statistical anomoly, etc etc etc.
See, even if people posted in the thread itself, giving details etc, that still will not translate to “some one I know personally”. (for those who believe as above in the first place), or, more importantly, that it occurs in real life in any way more frequently than they currently believe.
that’s the fight - and it can’t be won via an internet poll. (MHO) as catharthic as it might be for some folks, or interesting for others.
So, if the intent of this is to change the minds of the people who don’t believe that it happens often enough to include folks w/in their personal space in real life, no amount of on-line confessions will likely change that.
Well, the poll was started because she was angry that people deny the statistics. I still believe the OP was unclear.
And subsequent posts muddy it further. Some have said “no” votes are just as important. If the purpose of the poll is simply to show that some Dopers have been raped then the “no” option is pointless unless we’re interested in proving that some Dopers have not been raped. If it’s important to vote “no” so that it can be compared to those who vote “yes” then it’s a statistic.
I don’t doubt that having something that shows people have been raped can be good in many regards, but it’s setup and promotion have been pretty badly flawed. I think that flaw can’t really be changed.
You will not take the results as a statistic, but others might. In fact somebody else was mad at Rhum Runner because they had previously been interested in seeing the results but his sabotage had ruined it. If his vote ruined it, then it was going to be viewed in at least a quasi-statistical manner.
Dopers have been raped and that’s horrible. But I think this poll does nothing but perpetuate the anger that’s been evident in several other rape threads.
I likened this to stomping on somebody’s sandcastle at the beach. I think it was mean-spirited.
The numbers aren’t going to be statistically projectable or anything like that, but that doesn’t mean they’re worthless. Assuming that Opal put the page in a place where no one but SDMB posters and lurkers will be able to find it (which I believe is the case), and assuming that people are honest (which I do here on the SDMB, until it’s proven to the contrary), we might get something out of it that might show someone in our community that sexual assault is more widespread than they might have initially thought. Keep in mind that I’m also assuming that Opal turned on the 1 IP/ 1 vote feature and that no one is deliberately trying to sabotage the poll.
Believe me, I’m standing at the ready to flame away the first time that someone tries to use the results of this informal poll to say something like “X% of female posters on the SDMB have been sexually assaulted” or anything remotely resembling that.
Lemme say this another way…
I once attended a seminar on sexual assault where the lecturer opened up the discussion by asking for an audience show of hands as to who had been sexually assaulted. I was totally floored by the number of hand raises. It certainly got me to take notice.
What Opal is doing here is not all that different from a show of hands among SDMB posters and lurkers. I’m curious as to the results. And I know the results are going to be flawed. For the record, yes, I do think she could have positioned it better in the OP.
It seems to me, though, that you’re taking the pre-emptive approach. It’s not enough for you to discredit the results. You have to sabotage the poll on top of that. You should do more than post to this thread to make up for that. IMHO, you should e-mail your IP address to Opal, so she can check to see whether you really did vote and disallow any vote coming from your IP.
Well, shit. I just hate it when I do that. I guess I can’t read, or else my my short term memory is just shot. Due to your verbal style, I confused you with a different asshole who posted in the other thread that inspired this one. I’m sorry.
I retract everything in my second paragraph following "you are a verbally abusive asshole."
Dangerosa I understand that people can change positions.
however, if they’ve come to the belief that it doesn’t happen frequently and certainly not to anyone they personally know, knowing that it’s happened to a bunch of other people they know on line won’t change the “it doesn’t happen frequently and certainly not to anyone I personally know”. that will change when lots of some one’s they know come forward and tell.
It’s kinda like folks not believing that there’s x% of same sex orientated folks 'cause no on they know is. Showing me a picture of George Michaels and telling me gobear is gay won’t convince me that my** current sense** of the people I currently know is wrong.
Polls do not necessarily constitute statistical truth, or even a solid basis for drawing a conclusion. whether we’re talking about rape, favorite flavors of jellybeans, marketing surveys, or medical data.
Trying to use this kind of unbelievably unscientific data (admittedly or not) as some sort of basis for judgement or “example” is intellectual dishonesty of the sort that I’m ashamed to find on the SDMB.
** tmwster** Fair enough, but I am really a sweet guy, honest!
** THespos** I know Opal has the IP block turned on, because I tried to vote more than once and it wouldn’t let me. I admitted immediately what my vote was, and it can be disallowed, though as ** Zoff** has pointed out in his/her excellent post(s) the fact that my “vote” is seen as “skewing” the numbers indicates that, despite the protests to the contrary, people are still looking at these numbers as a statistic. Even Tom, who I have always respected, seems to want to draw conclusions and inferences from this poll.
I think even the biggest assholes from the other thread would have to admit that at least one person out of the 30,000 users here has probably been raped. Any attempt to get beyond that is an attempt to fix the percentage, or show that it is “a lot more than you (you being the aforementioned assholes) thought” and that simply can not be done using a poll in this fashion. So I ask again, what purpose can be served other than to confuse the issue?
“For those assholes out there who don’t believe the high rape statistics”…
is unfortunate. I’ve talked to dozens and dozens of women who have told me, as an emergency doctor and family doctor, about previous rape experiences. I believe they told me since I asked frankly, in a supportive and empathatic way. I always believed what they said to be true. I continue to conduct extensive medical exams when required (under governmental law – I think they could have made the exams themselves less traumatic), so that these unfortunate victims can have physical evidence if they want and need it. I’ve refered dozens of such women on to much needed, special programs to help victims of rape. And yes, I realize many women I have seen have been raped and told me nothing even when directly asked. I know many women do not report rape, and they have both good and not-so-good reasons not to report rape. It’s a very serious problem.
But one in four? The number is high, I agree. I personally doubt the number is quite that high. Not if you define rape in the common terms that most people would. As a comparison, it is very deceptive to report, as many organizations do, that the lifetime risk of breast cancer in the US is one in eight. These statistics are politically charged, on purpose, to scare people, to get attention, increase funding and to advance (occasionally admirable) agendas.
I think rape programs absolutely require priority funding and are completely essential. I know statistics can also be manipulated and think I have the right to examine studies critically. You are an asshole if you deny rape is a serious and underreported problem. But any statistic is worthy is scrutiny, and the act of scrutiny does not deserve such severe calumny.
I disagree with some of your assumptions above. Regardless of how it was positioned in the OP, I think this poll might have some value in the sense of “a show of hands” (like I posted earlier). I think people here have the common sense to take the results with a HUGE grain of salt. But some people might be surprised at the raw number of positive responses. I know that if the number of positive responses climbed into the hundreds or thousands, that might surprise some people here and get some attention.
As I said before, I would be against using the results of this poll to come up with any sort of percentage.
Sorry, I hit “submit” before I finished my thought there…
It might affect the “assholes” by making them think twice before they post something insensitive. If they think that “at least X number of people who have been sexually assaulted might read what I’m about to post,” they might think twice and adjust their tone and manner.
Sorry if some of this is coming out a little convoluted. I’m simultaneously posting and getting ready for a date.
So, you don’t care about the statistics, you only care that people look at them and learn from them. With all due respect, that seems a bit silly.
According to the DOJ, in 2000 there were 261,000 rapes in the U.S. (cite) If we assume that that number and pop. stay constant over time, that accumulates to 261,000 * 50 = 13,050,000. Suppose the half the population is female and that 13,000,000 are assaults against women, that’s 13,000,000 / 140,000,000 = 9.3% of the female population getting raped, or about one out of ten.
Let’s average 2000 and 1999, then the calculations come out to 11.4% of women raped. Of course, the crime is generally taken to be underreported. I don’t know if the DOJ accounts for that. Regardless, if between 1/8 and 1/9 of American women are raped during a 50 year adulthood, that’s pretty serious.
So even without delving further into the issue and the methodology of crime reporting, there is still a serious problem. Are there people who don’t understand that?