James Knox Polk said he’d serve just one term and indeed did not run for re-election.
Ignorance fought!
Polk was one of the better Presidents too.
With Biden unlikely to run in 2024, the most likely Democratic candidate will be Harris, but others are likely to run as well (unless Harris has actually become president by then). Will we see any new faces other than the crowd that ran this time? AOC? Who else?
On the Republican side, can we expect Trump to try again? His base will still be there. Pence will likely try, as will some from 2016 - Cruz, Rubio … Can we expect any new entrants on the R side? Who are the up-and-comers?
If Andrew Yang becomes Secretary of Commerce as I’ve seen kicked around I think he’ll take another run at it. We may see Hickenlooper come back but he’ll only be 4 years into his first senate term so that is probably only 50/50. Even if Harris is president she won’t get an unopposed primary and I would expect at least one contender more to the center of her and one from the far left though probably not Bernie again and I don’t think the squad has enough experience yet to take a run at the office.
Unless he’s dead, in prison or otherwise incapacitated, Don Trump Sr, will run again. I think that Maryland’s governor Hogan might give it a try. He’d actually make a pretty good candidate but would be unlikely to make it through the primary, unless the hardlline Republican base splits their vote.
Romney seems like a pretty obvious candidate.
Romney will be 77. I think he may end up working for Biden in some role.
I think Cruz and Rubio run again for sure. Maybe Nikki Haley. If Harris is president I don’t expect any big challenges to her.
Modhat: Merged nearly identical threads.
Pence has all the personality of a fence post.
I think Harris v. Haley would be a fascinating election. Won’t happen though. Cruz has all the personality of barbed wire. Can’t see him either. Rubio is my best bet.
This is very true, at least for past presidents. Oddly, however, it doesn’t seem to have aged Trump very much. Apparently 4 years of playing golf and watching TV isn’t all that stressful.
I know it’s hard to believe, but I think he’s even dumber than Donnie the Orange. It’s hard to understand how someone could be that stupid and still have a heartbeat.
If Donnie Sr. doesn’t destroy himself politically by having to be literally dragged out of the White House on Jan 20, and if he doesn’t end up indicted and possibly in jail over the next four years, my guess is that he’ll maintain the necessary ego-stroking high profile over that time and position himself to run in 2024. But I suspect his reputation will be trashed by then, even among his acolytes, and that won’t bode well for Junior either. I don’t know who the likely candidate will be.
On the Democratic side, I’d put my money on Kamala Harris. Biden will have a very stressful presidency and will likely recognize and deserve the right to enjoy the remainder of his life in peace.
I really don’t think Harris is a viable candidate as it stands now. 70 million people just voted for a racist misogynist idiot. At least that many would come out to vote against a black, south Asian woman, regardless of her policies. If the electoral college goes away, on the other hand, she’d have a chance.
I’ve heard the “the Presidency ages you” sentiment before, but I’ve also heard that it’s just that most men who hold the office do so in their fifties when the most visible physical changes associated with aging (graying hair, sagging skin) naturally occur. Certainly Presidents tend to have longer lifespans than their contemporaries, give or take a night at the theater.
Larry Hogan would make a fine president, IMO. But he’s far too moderate and intelligent to win the GOP nomination.
I do wonder if the GOP will move away from the “winner-take-all” format in the primaries, which is what really gave Trump his boost.
when was the last incumbent to not get the nomination? In 68 LBJ ran but dropped out early in the year. Can’t think of anyone else .
I just went back through the list of Presidents. In 1880, Rutherford Hayes declined to run, like LBJ.
So I think you’d have to go back to 1856, when incumbent Franklin Pierce lost the Democratic nomination to James Buchanan.
And I think that’s the ONLY incumbent who tried but failed to get his party’s nomination.
That was my quick perusal, anyway.
Have absolutely no say in the matter at all but I find the non-zero prospect that it could be Kamala Harris vs Nikki Haley greatly heartening.
Obviously a lot of uncertainty etc etc. but my best guess for a likely scenario would be Marco Rubio beats Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.
First of all I think Biden will be too old to run. Harris will get the nomination by default because “it’s her turn”. I don’t rate her as a particularly talented candidate and much of her primary campaign, especially her persistent incoherence on Medicare for All, was downright embarrassing. Democrats are hoping she is the female Obama but I think she is more likely to be the next Hillary. She will face huge pressure from her left flank to take unpopular positions on issues like border enforcement and reparations.
On the Republican side it will be wide open but my sense is the establishment will be more savvy than 2016 and unite behind a candidate more quickly. Haley is a possibility but I think Rubio will have be edge because he is Hispanic and he has positioned himself better to attract more populist voters. He will also have the opportunity raise his profile by cutting popular deals in the Senate.
In the general I think Harris will struggle with white working class voters and Rubio will make gains with Hispanic voters. He will also regain some of the suburban moderates who left because of Trump. Given the electoral college map I would back him to win narrowly.