Any “mainstream” or “moderate” Republican is almost certain to lose a general election. Their problem is that they will lose a significant portion of the Trump base. Of note this was a problem even before Trump. Unless they swing far to the right, in which case they would no longer be a moderate Republican, they will end up the same way that Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney did. My prediction is that Trump himself will run again if his health holds up. If not then it will be Donald Jr. or one of the Republicans that is currently in the “Biden hasn’t won” camp. Someone like Rick Scott, Ted Cruz, or Tom Cotton.
Yeah, I don’t see Pence being a favorite. Not impossible, but not a great bet.
At around this time guys like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were interesting, dynamic young longshots. Bush 2 was a name, but no one’s obvious pick. I’d guess someone far out like them, either a reasonably charismatic sort like Nikki Haley or a well liked, Trump-friendly governor or Senator. Rubio, Cotton and Cruz all seem like decent bets.
Has there ever been a case where the VP of a administration that lost re-election was the subsequent nominee? I’d think that historically, losing the re-election as an incumbent ticket was political death.
Nearly that exact question was a thread a week ago. FDR seems to be the recent answer.
Of note, FDR waited 12 years before he was on another ticket. So probably not a shining example.
I see the GOP in a tough place the next four years because Donald simply isn’t going to shut up. Now, he or his supported candidate might win in '24. He’s proved he can win. But he’s also proved to be the one Republican who can motivate nearly 80 million to get out and vote against him, even in a pandemic.
Either way, because he’s made it all a cult of personality, he’s a problem for any Republican candidate with ambition and a message of moderation. Which might be exactly who and what the party needs to win back the White House. The Democratic Party may be a huge unwieldy mess with wide policy differences and poor organization and messaging, but it won’t be walking the tightrope Republicans will simply because Don won’t shut up.
I’d enjoy a Trump vs. Pence fiasco.
Is anyone factoring the possibility that the Republicans and/or the Democrats will change the nominating system to give the party more control? I think both parties are worried about nominating people who cannot win.
I wouldn’t make any bets on the candidates four years from now. That’s a long way away, during one of the most volatile periods in my lifetime. There could be two people facing off we wouldn’t even consider today.
Doesn’t seem relevant, since the oldest President at the start of his second term was Ronald Reagan, who at the end of his 8 year Presidency was the age Biden is now.
Biden would be 86 at the end of his second term. Only seven of 45 presidents even lived to that age or older.
Clearly Biden would be the favorite for nomination if he were ten years younger. But he’s already looking frail and has clearly lost a step mentally over the last few years. I only give him a 50-50 chance of making it through one term without either dying or getting 25th-amendmented out for senescence or some other health issue.
I thought the Democrats had done that. The Republicans should consider it…though they seem to be fine with Trump for some reason.
Walter Mondale in 1984. Remember how well that turned out?
While not an incumbent VP, Bob Dole was incumbent President Gerold Ford’s running mate in 1976. VP Nelson Rockefeller had previously announced he would retire rather that run on the ticket. Dole of course was the Republican nominee for President in 1996.
I hear Tucker Carlson might take a run at it. Anybody think that’s a real possibility?
I still want a President Pete, but I wouldn’t want him to oppose Kamala. He’ll need to wait and I’ll never live to see it, probably.
Tucker is very, very good at talking. He might be a complete asshole, but he’s phenomenal at his job, strictly from the standpoint of technique. He could deliver all the same messages as Trump, but with a smooth and collected style, heavy on the kind of snarky sarcasm that would make audiences laugh. If he ran, and the Trump family endorsed him, he would have a serious shot.
I’ve said before that I don’t think the Republicans are ever going back to boring Mitt Romney type candidates. Even though Trump only won one term, I think they see the writing on the wall: go with a polarizing, divisive figure, who runs on grievance-based politics and resentment. And a background in television doesn’t hurt.
This. The people who voted for Trump are numerous and stupid. They’ll see Carlson as a smarter, nicer Trump who will still make sure that no progress occurs.
Trump will start running again 1/20/21. He actually filed his 2020 paperwork to run on 1/20/17
Did he? No way.
Mark my words- Donnie Junior v Kamala Harris in 2024. I doubt Biden runs for a second term and the Republican Party is now a family owned and operated enterprise. Maybe Ivanka in 2028. Eric in 2032… etc.
But 75 million voted for Biden. Also, don’t forget Obama won twice (with 69m and 65m votes).
All those people that didn’t vote in 2016 because they assumed there’s no way Trump would win, showed up in droves for this election to make sure he couldn’t. They’re all going to be there in 2024 to vote for Kamala (or against Donald). The 2016 election really showed what can happen when people don’t vote because they assume other’s will. The 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections had about a 55% turnout. 2020 is looking like it’s going to be 65% turn out (highest percentage in 120 years).
Personally, I don’t think Donald has a chance at winning again. Both because more people are going to show up to vote against him and, I’m assuming, more republicans than democrats will die and more democrats than republicans will become eligible voters over the next 4 years. If he’s running against a woman or minority (or a minority woman), that’s going to encourage even more people (on both sides) to show up at the polls.
Of course, that’s also assuming he can get the nomination. His own party may very well choose someone else…or at least I’d hope they would.
In fact, Trump filed his official paperwork with the Federal Election Commission on Jan. 20, 2017 — mere hours after he was inaugurated. And less than a month later, he would hold a rally (also in Florida) that was paid for by his campaign committee. When asked by a reporter if this was too early in his presidency to hold such an event, Trump replied, “Life is a campaign.” As president-elect, he also launched a “victory tour” of sorts to battleground states.