I posted in this thread that I believed Nikki Haley would be the Republican nominee in 2024 and got some pushback. Some people think the Republicans would never choose a woman, but I believe electability trumps any presumed, party-wide misogyny. Were British conservatives a more enlightened lot when they successfully backed Margaret Thatcher in three elections? I’m not claiming that Haley is in Maggie’s league (yet) but she projects competence and confidence. She’s formidable, imho, if she’s conservative enough. Can’t survive the RINO label these days.
As for Don jr., he lacks pretty much everything. His father had the (phony) smart and wildly successful real estate magnate image he’s cultivated since the 70s. He also had widespread recognition via The Apprentice and his ghost-written books. Don jr. is a silver-spoon brat who will forever reside in daddy’s shadow. On the other hand, I didn’t think George W. Bush had any shot at the presidency in the late 90s, so…
I doubt Trump runs again. He’ll be too old and having been defeated once already, he won’t have the same aura that he did before.
My guess is that Kamala Harris will probably be the presumptive nominee in 2024, perhaps facing a challenge from someone on the far left but weathering the storm.
If I had to guess the Republican nominee, it’ll be someone who is seen as an heir to Trump’s base of support, and I don’t think there’s a clear successor just yet. Trump’s children can’t do Trump the way Donald does. I tend to think it’ll be a candidate who has unassailable right wing credentials, but he might not even necessarily be white himself. It could be someone like a Sheriff Clarke of Milwaukee. Not saying it’ll be Sheriff Clarke but someone who fits that mold. Someone like Clarke or like Mike Flynn. An angry militaristic male who promises to crack down on left wing protestors and restore the economy to former greatness.
Pompeo has never lost an election. He never received less than 59% of the vote in his four congressional elections. And he has been one of Trump’s water-carriers from day one, both as head of the CIA and Secretary of State.
He’s an Army veteran, a Tea Party member, and he was one of the vocal leaders of the Benghazi hearings. What’s not to like about him, if you’re a Trump supporter?
Whoever it is will probably be a celebrity of some sort. They’ll be rich. Most likely white and male but perhaps there’s room for the right kind of woman or non-white male. It’ll be someone who doubles and triples down on the culture war and who pledges fidelity to the idea of a white male (Christian) restoration in America.
It appears to me that a lot of people who are thinking Biden will step down or not run are the same folks who didn’t give him much of a chance in the primaries or election this year. Unless something happens to him health wise, he’s going to run for re-election. Yeah, he’s old, but he appears in pretty good shape - he ran up the ramp to give his victory speech after all.
On the other side, Trump, if he can, will run again. And that will clear a lot of the right wing field. If he doesn’t I can see Cotton or Hawley run for the Trump position (and maybe Don Jr). You may also see Rubio, Hogan, etc run for the ‘moderate’ votes.
From today’s persoective after the Trump loss, I think Republicans are going to be looking for a ‘kinder, gentler Trump’, Someone with Trump’s belligerance and ‘willingness to fight’, but without Trump’s disgusting personal attributes.
Paul Ryan is questionable in this regard. He’s seen by Republicans as someone who talked a good game but was ultimately a squish who backed down when the going got tough. Tom Cotton might fare a little better in that regard.
But if I had to pick two front-runners today, I’d say Nikki Haley and Ted Cruz. Both survived Trump with their reputations intact. Both have a foot in the ‘establishment’ but with a reputation for fighting hard when needed. Haley’s speeches at the UN were Republican political porn. They loved her. And Cruz has a habit of being in the spotlight at the right time, saying things Republicans want to hear. And with the beard he doesn’t look as geeky as he used to.
On the Democratic side, I think the midterm elections will be decisive. If Democrats get clobbered in the midterms and Biden doesn’t run again, there will be a clamoring for a fresh face, and Harris won’t be it. If Democrats pick up seats in the midterms and have a generally successful election, Harris will be the pick in 2024.
I hear a lot of commentators assuming that Republicans will be searching for a candidate who is “Trump, but. . .” [and my deepest apologies for making you read that phrase]. Trump, but more focused and self-disciplined. Trump, but without the porn stars and multiple divorces. Trump, but more subtle with the racial demagoguery.
But it’s not clear to me what parts of Trump you can pick out and still maintain the level of appeal that he has. So much of his support stems from the fact that he is a giant middle-finger to the establishment on both sides of the aisle. The brashness, the sleaze, the impetuousness, the undisguised racism – these are features to his supporters, not bugs to be corrected. They make him “authentic” in a way that carefully curated politicians like Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan can never hope to match.
Assuming Trump himself does not run [note: I do not assume this at all] my guess is that the “Trump heir” will be someone from outside of politics. Maybe Don Jr. or Tucker Carlson. But I have a suspicion that it’ll be someone we’re not even thinking about right now, probably someone in the entertainment industry. I just saw that Ricky Schroeder helped fund Kyle Rittenhouse’s bail – could this be the first step?
There is no “kinder, gentler Trump”. Trump had success because he’s the opposite of kind, gentle, predictable, decent, compassionate, within norms of behavior, tolerant, etc. Those are the qualities that got him all those voters who hadn’t been coming out to vote before. It turns out millions of Americans want to vote for chaos, indecency, vitriol, bigotry, viciousness, etc. Trump really did tap into something I didn’t know was there. There’s no Trump or Trumpism without those qualities.
I don’t think it will be Chump. Ideally, his diet will have long put him in the ground by then. If by some miracle he is still alive, I don’t see him being the nominee again. I think he’ll fast turn into yesterday’s news once we finally pry him out of the White House. His hold on the Republikan Party will rapidly disintegrate. I know Mike Pompeo has designs on the job, ut it’s too early to tell.
I fully expect Biden to run again as well as win if he does.