We don’t have the same politics, but I agree with you on your assessment of what’s likely to happen on the Democratic side.
I think if Biden steps aside, it’s going to be hard to push Harris out of the frontrunner spot. Even if 2022 goes badly for the Dems, Harris won’t be blamed for that.
This doesn’t happen often of course - the only equivalent situation I can think of is in 1968, when LBJ bowed out and the nomination went to Hubert Humphrey, who damn near won despite the significant disadvantage of being named “Hubert H. Humphrey.”
It depends on if Biden steps aside or decides not to run for re-election. If he steps aside, Harris as President would be hard to beat in the primaries. If Biden decides not to run for re-election but stays President, Harris is going to have a much hard time.
FWIW, I think Biden is going to run for re-election.
Joe looks much healthier than trump.
And no, there wont be any such pressure, unless something weird comes up.
Sure, president is a tough job, but we cant tell at this stage how much it will hurt Bidens age.
LBJ- Johnson choose not to run again.
And you guys gotta get this “Biden is a one term Prez” out of your head.
I agree that the predictions that Biden won’t make it through his first term, much less run forward a second, due to his advancing decrepitude are overblown. There are a dozen members of the Senate as old as or older than Biden.
And our current President has shown that the office is only as taxing as the incumbent wants it to be. After fifty years of public service, Biden knows how to make the big decisions while appropriately delegating responsibilities to skilled underlings.
Rubio would be popular , his parents were born in Cuba. I will be surprised if he does not run again Someone older like Biden can go mentally downhill fast. Saw it with my father and stepmother. In my father’s case it was related to breaking his hip which is common. More than a few people die in less than a year of a hip fracture even if it was repaired. Nobody has yet to figure out why that happens.
Not to mention, most of the complaints that “Biden is too old” are coming from Sanders supporters, and Bernie is older than Biden. And trump is only a little younger.
I dunno - “Little Marco” didn’t get much traction in 2016, and his SOTU response (with water break) did not go down well. We’ll have to wait and see if Trump’s relentless mockery of him last time taints any future runs. Plus he’s not even that popular in Florida; it’s just that his opponents have been notably worse.
I think there are now four tracks in the GOP. Each will have one candidate standing as the ‘24 primaries get going:
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The “true moderate” (like Romney or Kasich). Not sure who this will be — maybe Larry Hogan (can we elect two Irish guys from the Delmarva Peninsula in a row?)
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The “midway between moderate and conservative, that also checks an interesting demographic box”. Haley will be in the running, but in the end it’s more likely to be Rubio.
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The “true conservative.” I’m thinking it will be Pence, not (say) Cruz.
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The “imbecile” (like Trump, of course). There’s no way to know who this will be yet, but whoever it is will generate a lot of undeserved and unhealthy-for-America publicity.
This time I don’t think the last candidate standing will be the “imbecile” (as in 2016), nor the “moderate” (as in 2012). It will probably be from the category I’ve listed here as #2, which likely means Rubio.
The previous poster noted that Rubio failed to gain traction (in ‘12 as well as in ‘16). Good point, but this time could be different. Let’s hope he fails to gain enough traction in November ‘24, and Harris becomes the next president.
Come on, Horatio is a cool middle name and “HHH” are pretty unique initials. Does anyone else remember Carter’s nomination acceptance speech where he paid homage to great Democrats including Hubert…Horatio… Hornblower?
The Republican nominee is going to have initials DJT, whether it is Jr or Sr remains to be seen. This party is a family crime syndicate now, no need for outsiders.
I don’t see Biden running a second time. Harris has the inside track, of course Bernie will come out again.
I see Harris v DJT Jr/Sr.
Junior’s popularity among Trumpists will die in six months. He is a popular standard-bearer but lacks the charisma needed to be the top dog, and he is jaw-droppingly stupid. (Trump Sr. is an ignorant pig but he’s not stupid - he has an evil cleverness when it comes to manipulating people.) He also obviously has a drug habit and I think it’s getting bad.
If the Trumpists are going to rally around one of Trump’s spawn, it’ll be Ivanka.
I agree with this. The idea that Trump fanatics will happily transfer their allegiance to Don Junior or anyone with a Trump surname strikes me as simplistic. Trumpism is a cult of personality, and his kids didn’t inherit any personality that I can detect.
If Trump doesn’t run in 2024, then Cruz and Cotton will probably be the early front-runners. However, I see both of them as re-runs of Scott Walker—candidates who look electable on paper, but can’t scale up their state popularity to the national level. They both have zero warmth and all the charisma of broken glass. Rubio won’t do any better than he did the last time. Maybe Nikki Haley or Rick Scott.
I do think Biden will run again, barring some major medical issue. I could see him resigning a couple of years into his second term, which would set up Harris nicely for 2028.
I think Romeny is a better choice on the Republican side but i can see Pence if he somehow manages to wash off the stink of Trump. Democrats will keep running against trump in 2022.
I think Biden will run again (by popular demand), but if he doesn’t I see someone from Texas or Georgia (I’m looking at you Stacey Abrams). I think Kamala Harris ran a horrible campaign.
< Pence > “Trump? I never really met him. He had something to do with the administration I think. He got the coffee or something.”
# Most Americans Back Trump for 2024 GOP Primary, Pence and Don Jr. in Second and Third: Poll
A poll released Tuesday by Morning Consult and Politico found that 53 percent of respondents would choose Trump as the GOP nominee in the next election. Vice President Mike Pence was a distant second choice with 12 percent support, while the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., was the third favorite at 8 percent.
Other names appearing in the survey were even further away from the pack. Sen. Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee, was tied at 4 percent with both Sen. Ted Cruz and former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley. Sen. Marco Rubio registered at 2 percent, while South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem joined Sens. Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Rick Scott and Tim Scott at 1 percent each.
It’s trumps all the way down? 
Tom Cotton is the current frontrunner for this slot.
I find it utterly bizarre that so many people just assume Biden won’t run again. Sure, it’s possible, but it would be rather unusual for the Democrats to give up the incumbent advantage, especially when we need all the help we can get to fight the current system which requires Democrats to win by 4 percent of the vote.
Sure, if Harris* takes over in that time, then she runs as the incumbent. And that might be better so the age issue doesn’t factor in. But, without that, I don’t think going back to a bunch of different candidates helps the Dems. Plus, if age is an issue for Biden, then it is for Trump, too, making it hard for him to win the nomination. (Or, if he does, Biden wins the election.)
*Has she at this point expressed a preference to be referred to by her first name? I hadn’t heard it, and am hesitant to treat her differently than other candidates otherwise.
I don’t think Rubio has a chance in the primaries. He’s already trying to make himself look like someone in your #3 category by saying he won’t support any of Biden’s cabinet nominees. Unfortunately for him he comes across like a follower who is doing so because that’s what’s expected of him. IMHO he’s cornered himself into being a younger / better looking version of (the current) Lindsey Graham.
ETA. I do believe he’s planning on running, I just don’t think he will get very far.
Ahh, interesting. Point taken. If voters are going to vote in primaries for someone who stands for nothing, it’s more likely to be someone from category 4 — an imbecile, probably one without governing experience, who can milk a stupid applause line like “build a wall” as if it were a sober policy. Rubio is definitely not this.