It’s interesting that, for a long time, the saying with regard to presidential nominees was that, “Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.” Democrats tended to nominate lesser-known politicians who charmed them in a given cycle like Bill Clinton and Obama. Republicans tended to dutifully nominate whoever’s “turn” it was based on performance in the previous primary like Dole, McCain, and Romney.
Of course this was never 100% the case (e.g. Goldwater, Al Gore). But the last couple of elections have definitively turned this formulation on it’s head. H. Clinton and Biden are the definition of “next in line” presidential nominees. And I won’t dignify what Trump’s supporters feel for him as “love,” but he certainly won their hearts in a way that no Republican nominee has in a long time.
Yes, Biden is in good health now, way better than trump, anyway. Sure, 4 years in the Oval office does take a lot out of a man, but we will have to see.
I think he will be fine and run again.
Yeah two of the loudest complainers about how old Joe is were MAGAainians and Berniebros, and sanders is older and trump isnt much younger.
I will admit to having expressed concerns - and to have done so here - about Biden’s age. But to be fair, I also lumped in Warren, Sanders and Trump as “getting well up there” too.
Joe’s going to be President, and that’s fine. Maybe he’ll still be fine in four years. We’ll see what four years brings.
These threads have been going on for four years so I’ve probably said this before (apologies) but one bright spot of Donald’s threats to hang around and maybe even run in ‘24 is the chaos and consternation it brings down upon a truly reprehensible cast of GOP wannabees. Lyin’ Ted and Little Marco et al desperately want to be the party’s nominee but have to walk a tightrope of bullshit for at least another three years.
It’s reasonable to worry about Trump four years from now but lots can happen in the meantime. And very little of it good for the current cast of Republican characters who want to be POTUS.
On the Republican side, much is going to depend on how the Democrats govern, and what the results are.
If the Democrats go hard after ‘the rich’, I expect to see at least one conservative-leaning billionaire throw his hat in the ring. Someone like Mark Cuban, perhaps. Whether he’d win or not, I don’t know. A push to the left woild also help the Republican stalwarts like Cruz, Tom Cotton, or even Paul Ryan if he ever decides to run.
If the Biden administration has a contentious foreign policy (from the right’s perspective) but is otherwise moderate, Nikki Haley would be my pick for front-runner.
I do not think the Trumep kids have a shot, or will even try. If Trump couldn 't survive, neither will Trump-Lite. And Republicans will likely not want to repeat the fracturing of the party that cost them this time.
Another factor: Presidential politics is now a bloodsport. This will scare away quality people who might otherwise run but who don’t want to put their friends, family or business associates through the political meat grinder. So we are likely to get people who are already vetted, or who care about power so much they don’t care who gets burned. That’s not a good thing, but it’s now the reality for both parties.
An outside possibility is a Republican media personality like Tucker Carlson. He has as much money as he needs to do it. But it could also be someone else from that wing of the party.
If I were betting, though, I’d pick ‘none of the above’ as the most likely, as it’ll probably be someone we’re not even thinking about right now.
The GOP base is now craving culture war candidates. There will be no return on the national stage for republicans who just preach the usual 1980s playbook of small government, lower taxes, free market economics and freedom in soft tones and a proud smile. Someone like Larry Hogan seems to think it’s possible but he won’t make it far.
I bet 100000 quatloos that the GOP will not nominate Haley- or any woman for prez in 2024. Aint gonna happen. They are too misogynistic. Sure, they will put a attractive woman is some decent post, but that is about it.
@DrDeth I begrudgingly voted for the bloke, but it’s not a canard to say that age has visibly affected Biden. He’s not senile or anything, but he’s not the sharp tongued, quick witted mad man that utterly wrecked Paul Ryan’s snide face in the VP debates either. He’s slower, flubs more, and has a lot more difficulty getting words out clearly. That doesn’t reflect inability but to pretend that he’s as dapper as ever is just denying reality.
I’d be surprised if Biden runs in 2024. Look at Obama pre and post presidency - and he was a strapping young lad at the time, relatively speaking. It’s a job that drains the everliving tar out of you. I just don’t think Biden has two terms of tar left at his age. And that’s not hate or right wing bias - I mean, I love Bernie, but I doubt he’s got the tar in him to run in 2024 either.
I personally side with the “new cast of characters” lot. The republicans need to find a New Trump. Not the constant coffeve machine Trump, but the “I speak your words, good words, that show how things will get great for you” Trump (translated from the more Romney-esque: “A man who speaks the electorate’s language and placates their continued dissatisfaction with the status quo”). Currently, I just don’t see anyone from the familiar crowd doing that. Being an outsider helps. Bigly!
For the Dems they really need to fix their energy problem. Not Trump won this Election, and happened to be named Biden. Few people loved Biden. I certainly didn’t go out to vote for him. They need a candidate who can energize their base the way Trump does. Hell, Trump gave me more passion this election than Biden did. I most definitely went to vote against him, that is. That energy is unlikely to come from any familiar player on the left for so long as they’re only willing to nominate candidates that try to be everything at once (neoliberal, progressive, conservative & moderate). If I had to guess, maaaybe Buttigieg…? But he’s going to alienate and energize so much of the Christian Right that Not Buttigieg might very well win…
In normal times, I would agree with this statement. But it didn’t do anything to Trump, probably because he did very little presidenting while in office.
Agreed. Don never had the nation’s interests at heart. He saw the office as a tool for self-preservation. The best part of being POTUS for him was naming his own judges and department chiefs who would protect his nefarious activities. I think he couldn’t believe that he’d been given that power and it’s what he is fighting so hard even now to maintain.
I don’t love Biden, but I don’t love my mechanic, plumber, dentist, or physician either. I’m definitely not energized when I call upon or visit those professionals, and I don’t want to have a beer with them afterwards. But I trust them. In voting for President (or any other public office) the citizenry is hiring someone to run things for them in (IMHO) a manner they trust, not necessarily that excites them.
The nation just had a four-year object lesson that an employee who lies constantly, browbeats other employees, and alienates suppliers and clients is certainly exciting but equally certainly not desirable. The replacement employee who sits quietly at his desk diligently working, deals with coworkers politely, and is known to promptly leave at the end of a full workday to catch his train home is not exciting but desirable.
Now see that’s weird to me. I live in a major coastal city, but my mechanic was a great friend of my father and cried when he passed, my physician knew me from the time I was tiny and served my family faithfully until he retired, my plumber is a friend of the family who shows up to dinner on occasion… You might be setting your expectations for your business relations far too low…
In fact, the reason people get screwed so often by mechanics and plumbers might be because they don’t bother looking for the people that get them excited (that is, form a real bond of trust and friendship together)… but we digress.
Votes matter, and failing to excite the base fails to generate votes. Period. Our two party system means you either win absolutely or lose absolutely, with no middle ground possible. Therefore, a failure to generate votes means a total defeat of your “side” of the issues. If one side has a candidate who excites the base and the other doesn’t, in this divided climate, the side with energy wins. Often in a landslide. Trump trounced Hillary in 2016. Trump then turned around and trounced Trump (by exciting the Democratic base, again to “get that clown out of office!” as was said by many Biden voters in my office place) in 2020.
I don’t trust “nothing will fundamentally change” Biden. I don’t trust soft on china Biden. I don’t trust appointed Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary Biden. I would not have voted for Biden if, say, Romney or McCain had been running (I would have declined to vote for either party in that case). I voted against Trump, and this only extremely reluctantly despite being avidly political.
The nation learned nothing of the sort, except how vulnerable our system is to a demagogue. You can run on anything, literally starting your campaign by calling Latino’s rapists and murderers and then gaining votes in that segment. Issues don’t matter anymore. The obvious solution, then, is to run a demagogue. If the left doesn’t learn that lesson, they will be obliterated in the next election cycle.
Trump has unofficially announced he’s seeking the 2024 nomination. He was speaking at a White House reception and said “It’s been an amazing four years. We’re trying to do another four years. Otherwise, I’ll see you in four years.”
Conversely, all indications show that Biden’s approach to China will be less wildly erratic but hardly “soft”. He’s unlikely to engage in the sort of extreme rhetorical sabre-rattling Trump did and his approach to tariffs will be more measured (which is a good thing, given the damage they did to America), but he and the EU are already discussing ways to mitigate China’s influence and he likely understands - unlike many people - that refraining from making wild inflammatory statements isn’t a sign of weakness but rather of maturity.
So, again, I would like to know by what criteria Biden is considered “soft on China”. Because if it’s by measurement against the current incumbent, whose actions have benefited China and himself and significantly damaged America, I think we might want to consider other metrics.
is not exciting but desirable.