Let's review the NFL Draft ... circa 2005.

The Game Room
1

The most boring part of the the NFL off season is here. Free agency is dwindling down to slim pickins, and the draft is still over a month away. There’s nothing really going on. So I thought it would be fun to take a look at a prior NFL draft and review how it went and the SDMB’s reaction. I figure it’s been over 4 years since that draft, so enough time has passed to get a fairly good idea about the players. And I thought it would be fun to see how well I and others on the board did in player evaluations.

First, here’s a couple links. The complete 2005 draft. And here is the draft discussion on the SDMB.

To start with the actual NFL draft, here are some things that jumped out at me.

The Alex Smith (49ers) v. Aaron Rodgers (Packers) debate is pretty well settled. While Alex Smith has never lived up to being the first player drafted, and the Packers got the pick of the draft with Aaron Rodgers at 24.

Matt Cassel (Patriots), Jay Ratliff (Cowboys) and (to a lesser extent) Ryan Fitzpatrick (Rams) were amazing values in the 7th round. Chris Kemoeatu (Steelers) and Jovan Haye (Panthers) in the 6th round turned into starters. The odds aren’t that good, but it seems good teams can find some starters late in the draft.

There was a fair amount to talent in the 2nd round. Michael Roos, Lofa Tatupu, Nick Collins, and Vincent Jackson are all better than many of those taken ahead of them.

The big three running backs, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Cedric Benson, have all shown flashes, but none have developed into the stud RB they were thought to be. Both Brown and Cadillac have had injury problems, and Benson took awhile to get on track, and still hasn’t lived up to his draft position.

Braylon Edwards and Pacman Jones likewise haven’t lived up to their draft positions, but not because of a lack of talent or injuries, but because of the mental side of the game/life. Should be good to see how Dez Bryant and others work out.

Now, let’s take a look at the SDMB’s reaction to the draft. I’ll let others review/defend their thoughts, but I’ll take on mine. Here’s my thoughts about my prognostications back then:

Things I was right about:

Aaron Rodgers. QB, Packers

My take: “Best First Round Pick - Aaron Rogers at 24. … I’m still not sure why he fell so far, but I’m damn glad he did. If it was ego, a later draft pick and sitting behind Favre will certainly help straighten him out. I put no weight in the over analysis of this holding the ball near his ear, or the Tedford curse. It’s great to get a franchise QB on the cheap. I was thrilled with this pick. Grade: A.”

Aaron Rodgers is one of the best young QB’s in the league and was the best pick of the first round. Kudos to me.

Demarcus Ware,, OLB, Cowboys

“Again, another great player who gets knocked for being too small. He’s quick, relentless, and smart. He needs just a bit of work on coverage, if he’s used in a 3-4 defense, but he too will make an immediate impact.”

Lo’ and behold, Demarcus has been a huge stud, with 4 pro bowls, 4 times in the top 10 in sacks (and once winning), and has been a force. Got one right.

Troy Williamson, WR, Vikings

“He’s a guy who has flown up the draft board recently, and I just don’t see it. He’s fast. That’s it. He’s fast. Which can help, but I’m not impressed with his ability to catch the ball, or his heart to go over the middle. I don’t think he’s not ready for the NFL. It’s just a personal opinion, but this guy will not make it in the NFL. … Williamson was a dumb, dumb pick. Worst pick of the draft, possibly.”

Picking someone to fail in the NFL is a lot easier than picking someone to succeed, simply because there are a ton more fails than successes. I was right about Williamson, though.

Maurice Clarett, RB, Broncos.

“The stupidest pick of all stupid picks: Maurice Clarett in the third round. That guy has PATHETIC tattooed on his fucking forehead. And his arm. And his back. And his momma’s back too.”

He’s in prison now. ‘Nuff said.

Matt Jones, WR, Jaguars

“Matt Jones. Overrated athlete who has no position to play, and no reason, besides hype, to be taken in the first round. While he is an impressive specimen, he’s a athlete in search of a position. Unless they plan on changing their whole offense to suit him (and he ain’t that good), he’ll get lost in the shuffle. It is possible he’ll be a Antonio Gates type player, I just don’t see it happening.”

Cokehead hoping to get a second chance with the Bengals who never lived up to the hype or the draft position.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami

“Ronnie Brown is really good.” He is. If he stays healthy.

Guys I was a bit right and a bit wrong about:

Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns

“Braylon Edwards v. Mike Williams - Even though he’s a Michigan guy, Braylon all the way. … Braylon is a lot like R. Moss, he’s fast, big, and, unfortunately, a bit of a head case. That’s why he tends to disappear against mediocre teams, but comes up big in huge games, like this years Rose Bowl. Braylon would be a great pickup for any team, if he gets his head straight, which he did this year.”

Braylon had one great year in the NFL, but has never lived up to the potential I saw, nor to his draft position. I’m giving myself partial credit, because I identified his major flaw (he’s a head case), and because he has done a ton better than Mike Williams. I had thought that Edwards would straighten out, but apparently, he hasn’t.

Cedric Benson, RB, Bears

“Cedric Benson was a great pick for the Bears. He’ll be a solid running back for years to come, and is a great pick to complement the perennially overrated Thomas Jones.”

Mostly wrong, because he’s never developed into the workhorse RB stud I had thought, but he wasn’t that bad (the Bears were), and is having a bit of a renaissance in Cincinnati. The jury is still a bit out on him.

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs

“Johnson going to the Chiefs will prove to be a huge step in the right direction for them.” He had a great year, and then fizzled. The potential was there, though.

Guys I was amazingly wrong about:

Mark Clayton, WR, Ravens.

“The second best wide receiver in the draft, who may fall even to the second round. He’s a poor man’s Marvin Harrison. He’s on the small side, but he’s fast, runs great routes, and is smart. He’s a big time, productive player who only needs to strengthen up a bit, and he’ll be an immediate impact player.”

Yes, I compared him to Marvin Harrison. God I was wrong. He’s not horrible, mind you, he’s still a starter in the league and is still developing, but I had thought he’d be tearing it up by now. Oops.

Frank Gore, RB, 49ers.

“Sometimes it’s OK to give up on a guy. Picking him before Barber, Faison, Moats, Morency, Pearman, and Sproles was just plain silly.”

Oops again. Gore, when healthy (which is always an issue) is better than all those guys. While Sproles and Barber are good Rbs in the NFL, the others have been all but useless.
And, ladies and gemmelum, the absolute worst comments about the NFL draft in 2005:

Nick Collins, DB, Packers:

“What. The. Fuck. Some no name from a small school with questionable experience taken with the 51st pick? I know he’s supposedly got the speed and size they like and he’s versatile enough to play both safety and corner back, but for the love of god, what were they thinking taking him so soon. I’d be thrilled to have him in the 6th, even the 5th round, which was the highest I’d seen him projected, but there is no way in hell he’s the 51st best prospect and no way in hell they shouldn’t have waited to pick up this guy. They fucked up by not getting Dan Cody or Channing Crowder here and waiting to get this developmental project later. Grade: D.”

17 interceptions and 2 Pro Bowls later, I fully admit to having been wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Although Crowder is a servicable starting LB and Cody is out of football because of an injury. But I was wrong.

So, anyone want to waste some time and jump in with their thoughts?

2

The 2005 draft might go down as one of the worst of recent history, at least at the top of the draft…

  1. Alex Smith: basically a bust… has enough smarts to have a career as a backup, but doesn’t look like he’ll ever make it as a starter
  2. Ronnie Brown: flashes of greatness, but lots of injury troubles
  3. Braylon Edwards: no hands, had one great season, already on a new team
  4. Cedric Benson: flamed out with the Bears, bit of a resurgence with the Bengals
  5. Cadillac Williams: see Ronnie Brown
  6. Pacman Jones: character issues led to flameout from NFL
  7. Troy Williamson: bust
  8. Antrel Rolle: injury troubles early on, late bloomer, but at safety not CB anymore, Cards didn’t deem him worth keeping
  9. Carlos Rogers: decent, but not top-10 material
  10. Mike Williams: epic bust

Looking at my team, the Raiders, they had a pretty poor draft as well. Gave up the #7 for Randy Moss (which, seeing as how Al Davis probably would’ve drafted Troy Williamson instead, wasn’t the worst thing in the world), swung and missed on two CBs in Fabian Washington (now a Raven) and Stanford Routt (now a backup) in the first two rounds. Andrew Walter in the 3rd was a good pick, but they ruined his development behind Art Shell’s atrocious offensive line and he was never the same after that. Kirk Morrison’s the only one who’s stuck around from this draft.

3

I wasn’t in the mix during the draft thread, but I’ll post my thoughts on the Eagles’ draft. They had finished in the Super Bowl the season before and were just a few pieces away from really becoming a force. Unfortunately, the season crumbled around the T.O. saga and a ton of injuries and the Eagles would finish a very disappointing 6-10. That 6-10 season, by the way, being the only losing season in the decade.

1st Round (31) - Mike Patterson, DT
Terrific pick. He’s a standout run stopping anchor on the defensive line who deserves yearly Pro Bowl consideration. He’s also durable, having never missed a game due to injury and holding the second longest active consecutive games streak at 80. A

2nd Round (35) - Reggie Brown, WR
If I remember correctly, the Eagles moved up to grab Brown, but I’m not at all sure about that. Either way, he was a disappointment, and while I don’t think he was a bust, he comes as close as you can to crossing that line without doing so. He showed some promise when T.O. lost his mind in '05, and was even on the verge of a full on breakout season after his decently good '06 season, but never again found that form.** D**

2nd Round (63) - Matt McCoy, LB
McCoy never really did anything for the Eagles. He had a limited role in '06 where he made the occasional good play, but he couldn’t crack the lineup any other year. He’s on his fourth team heading into 2010 and certainly wasn’t at all worthy of a second round pick. **F

**I’d say, at this point, the Eagles would deserve a middling grade for this draft, wouldn’t you? One bonafide Pro Bowl caliber starter and two duds? They’d need some real steals in the mid rounds to salvage this…

3rd Round (77) - Ryan Moats, RB
Ryan Moats just never got a chance in Philly. I hesitate to say he’s a bust because he has shown some hints of exceptional talent (like his 126 yard, 3 TD game against Buffalo last season that upended the fantasy world), but he did absolutely nothing in Philly. He might end up being a serviceable committee guy or a competent injury replacement, but I’m not sure if that’s what you want out of a 3rd rounder. **D+

**4th Round (102) - Sean Considine, S
Sean came in as an injury fill-in in '06 and got enough attention that there were whisperings that he would develop into a full time starter. He got the chance in '07 and played very poorly and lost all his momentum with the team before, I think, falling to injury. He hardly sniffed the field in '08 and was on another team in '09. **D-
**
Not looking so good!

4th Round (126) - Todd Herremans, T
Ahh, there we go. Herremans is the Eagles’ most consistently good lineman. He’s a four year starter at left guard and was considered the Eagles best overall O-Lineman in ‘09 by the Iggles’ bloggers. He might have gained some Pro Bowl love if he hadn’t missed a few games due to injury. Still, a four year, consistently very good starter in round four? **A

**Why not A+? That’s reserved for picks like the Eagles’ next pick…

5th Round (146) - **Trent Cole, DE
**No list of best picks in the '05 draft could possibly exclude Cole from the top 3-5. 5th round selection, 2 Pro Bowls, 47 career sacks in 4.5 seasons, and the third most sacks in the NFC since 2006? A+

The rest of the draft (four picks) was entirely uneventful. Although I did find a guy whom I had never heard of and yet I guess he played 12 games for the Eagles in '06. Must be a special teams guy. None of those guys are still with the team. So the Eagles took care of business and made their late first round pick count, struck out with their next few picks, but brought home two every day starters and a multi-year Pro Bowler in the mid rounds. All told they nabbed three starters still with the team, all of them at least deserving of being mentioned in the Pro Bowl talk and another starter in Brown who was a disappointment but still produced some while with the team until this offseason. I’d say most teams don’t get much value in the 6th and 7th rounds, and the Eagles were no different, so I don’t hold that against them.

I’d give the draft an A, but I’m not sure how often teams get three starters from a single draft. Is it fair to have expected the Eagles to have gotten more from their 2nd and 3rd rounders? Or does what they got in the 4th and 5th more than make up for it? I go with the latter.

4

But if you go beyond that, look at the next few picks. Demarcus Ware, Shawn Merriman, and Jammal Brown have all to at least a couple Pro Bowls and have been great picks. Thomas Davis is a starter, as is Johnson. If anything, I’d say the problem with this draft were injuries really hurt a lot of the players.

Oh Dear God. I am so, so sorry.

I fear the words “Oakland Raiders” and “crappy draft” are, and will be, synonymous for a while. Although there is some talent there.

5

I can tell you one thing I was incredibly wrong about. I thought Mike Williams was- The Man! He was the player I wanted the Chargers to land, and it wasn’t even really close. I was SO disappointed when the Lions took him at 10. As it turns out- it’s a good thing I’m not the GM. This was nothing short of an amazing draft for San Diego:

1 12 Shawne Merriman OLB Maryland
1 28 Luis Castillo DE Northwestern
2 61 Vincent Jackson WR Northern Colorado
4 130 Darren Sproles RB Kansas State
5 164 Wesley Britt T Alabama
6 177 Wes Sims G Oklahoma
7 242 Scott Mruczkowski C Bowling Green State

Only two dud’s in Wesley Britt and Wes Sims. The first four (!) rounds are all players with significant roles on the team. Mruczkowski is our backup Center and started most of the season last year when Hardwick got his annual injury. This is really about as good of a draft as you’re going to see.

6

**Omni’s **review of the Lions’ draft should be framed and put up somewhere. This doesn’t count. This was during the Millen years.
Those years never happened.

7

This draft happened before I ever joined here, but the Saints did pretty well with Jamaal Brown in the 1st, and Josh Bullucks in the 2nd. Not so well in the later rounds, as I don’t even recognize a couple of the names…

8

The Bengals had an awful draft that year, although talent-wise, it should have been very good.

  1. David Pollack, LB-Showed flashes of potential, broke his neck, retired.
  2. Odell Thurman, LB- Had an excellent rookie year, plagued by alcohol abuse problems, out of the league.
  3. Chris Henry, WR-he’s dead
  4. Eric Ghuichec, C-he sucked ass but managed to start for the Bengals at C in 2008 and was a revolving door.
  5. Adam Kieft, T-couldn’t stay healthy, retired
  6. Tab Perry, WR-played decent as a KR before getting hurt, retired I think.
9

Patriots had an excellent 2005 draft:

Rd Sel # Player Position School
1 32 Logan Mankins G Fresno State
3 84 Ellis Hobbs CB Iowa State
3 100 Nick Kaczur T Toledo
4 133 James Sanders SAF Fresno State
5 170 Ryan Claridge LB Nevada-Las Vegas
7 230 Matt Cassel QB USC
7 255 Andy Stokes TE William Penn

[ul]
[li]Mankins has been a stallwart on the O-line from day one and has not missed a game in his entire career, IIRC.[/li][li]Ellis Hobbs is a good (but not great) corner and a spectacular special teamer. I was sad to lose him to the Eagles last year.[/li][li]Nick Kaczur is a solid tackle that is still starting on the line. Not a superstar, but very solid on the right side.[/li][li]James Sanders came in as a backup and worked his way up over a couple years into the starting lineup. He’s a hard hitter, not great in coverage, but serviceable. Good value for the 4th round.[/li][li]Cassel was obviously a steal in the 7th, stepped up when he was needed, and got us some value (though not enough!) as a trade.[/li][/ul]

Never heard of the other two guys.

10

Wow.
Round one - Broke his neck.
Round two - Abused alcohol.
Round three - Dead.

Wow.

11

err nevermind I’m dumb

12

I love that you actually get to claim credit for this, even though you named the wrong Johnson the Chiefs picked. The same analysis works with that other Johnson the Chiefs picked, in a way, too. That’s great. :slight_smile:

13

I know. All three of those guys should still be on the team and productive. Lost them all.

14

I didn’t participate in that one, but I did in the 2004 thread,

lets see what I said. :wink:

First of all, Who the fuck is Wells? That must have been one of my patented whole word typos, but I have no idea who I could have possibly been thinking of. Anyway I meant to say The Dolphins drafted OT Vernon Carey 1st round that year, who has been a good, not spectacular , but solid starting player for them, and about what you want out of a 1st round pick there

Poole and Pape, never did crap and are out of the league from what I can find, but they were always projects. Hadnot showed some promise, but faded and was allowed to go. I think he is still playing though.

Over all grade on me D+(would be c- except the name thing)

15

I don’t think the face-smacking smilie is big enough. I think Derrick has a better chance of proving himself as a great pick than Larry does. I can’t believe I messed that up.

16

49ers fan checking in, let’s review all the picks:

  1. Alex Smith, QB - I wanted Rodgers. Poor Alex got screwed by so many different things (revolving-door OCs, idiot HC, injury) it’s a good thing he got paid. He goes into this season as the declared starter with a good chance at redemption, but it’s his last chance.
  2. David Baas, OL - Decent, but not as good as a 2nd should be. Currently playing left guard. The team is in no hurry to resign him, and he may not start depending on the 2010 draft.
    3a. Frank Gore, RB - Steal of the draft, IMHO, pro-bowler. Still has injury problems, but we had freaking Kevan Barlow as our starting RB before him.
    3b. Adam Snyder, Guard - A good pick. Re-signed, but struggled at right tackle last season, will probably be a valuable O-line backup going forward, able to play guard and tackle.
    5a. Ronald Fields, DT - decent, but not too good when with the 49ers, now starting for the Broncos
    5b. Rasheed Marshall, WR - not horrible pick, decent return guy, no longer playing
  3. Derrick Johnson, CB - who? sucked, bounced around five other teams, mostly on practice squads, before landing in the CFL
    7a. Daven Holly, CB - who? sucked worse, didn’t make the team his first year, now with the Browns
    7b. Marcus Maxwell, WR - who? now in the UFL
    7c. Patrick Estes, DE - who?
    7d. Billy Bajema, TE - darn good pick for a 7th, 15 starts and 45 games over 4 years, mainly a blocking tight end, made expendable by Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, he signed as a free agent with the Rams.

So, after 5 years, out of 11 picks, we have one pro-bowler and 4 players still on the roster, with another 2 players on other NFL rosters. I’d grade it a B-.

I can only imagine how Rodgers would have done with the same crappy situation that Smith found himself in, particularly a head coach who didn’t know a QB from an LB.

17

Okay. Let’s commence with the torture.
Detroit “Football” Lions

Round 1: Mike Williams, USC wide receiver
Round 2: Shawn Cody, USC defensive tackle
Round 3: Stanley Wilson, Stanford cornerback
Round 5: Dan Orlovsky, UConn quarterback
Round 6: Bill Swancutt, Oregon defensive end
Round 6: Jonathan Goddard, Marshall wide receiver

18

Damn that is a new level of pathetic, even for the lions, the shining star of the draft was Orlovsky?

19

It might be Stanley Wilson.

20

It would be fascinating. I always thought Smith was a good QB with a shot to be great in the NFL, but his situation has sucked from the getgo. And Rodgers benefitted from not playing in his first couple years, which let him mature, adjust to speed, and develop into a very good QB. Switch their places, and it would be fascinating to see how it would have worked out.