"Look to the Ukraine." What did McCain think was going to happen in the Ukraine?

Factual Questions
1

I saw Ukraine mentioned in a news article today, and it reminded me of what John McCain said in the Presidential debates last year. I can’t remember the exact wording, but when he was issuing warnings about Russia’s conduct following its invasion of Georgia, I remember him using the phrase, “look to the Ukraine” in at least one of the debates, possibly two, even though no one else had mentioned the Ukraine and there wasn’t really any talk in the media about it.

I’m sure McCain is genuinely concerned about Russia’s designs on Ukraine in the medium-term. But to issue such a specific message in the way he did - the starkness of the warning struck me as basically saying, “trust me, watch what’s going to happen in the Ukraine soon, you’ll see…” - I got the sense that he felt there was a good chance something serious was going to happen between Russia and Ukraine during the election campaign, and the statement was a calculated gamble which, if something did indeed happen in the Ukraine, would allow him to say, “Didn’t I tell you? But Obama wouldn’t listen, would he? That’s why you should elect me”. That sort of thing would be a game-changer.

Unfortunately I know very little about Ukraine’s political situation recently. Am I right to think McCain suspected something could happen in the Ukraine in late 2008? If so, what was it he suspected?

2

I think he was referencing the past meddling by Russia in the Ukraine rather then predicting future instances. In 2004, Russia was suspected of helping the pro-Russian candidate steal the election and poisoning his opponent. Russia later cut off the flow of natural gas to the country during a dispute over pipelines.

3

I definitely got the impression he was referring to the future - “look (now) to the Ukraine” kind of thing.

But you make a good point about the pipeline disputes, didn’t Russia cut gas supplies to Ukraine on 1 January 2009? That dispute must have been rumbling for a while, probably back during the election campaign, and maybe McCain thought it could have edged into a bigger crisis or even conflict?