Looks like a bad week for the Gulf Coast - NHC predicting two hurricanes making landfall early Wednesday morning

The cones for both have them reaching hurricane strength by Tuesday night.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

The models should be taking the Fujiwara Effect into account, but I’m not seeing the counterclockwise hurricane center rotation in any of the forecasted paths. ECMWF still has TD 14 being small at landfall. Though quite intense 24 hours prior, mid-Gulf. I’m sure it will change with more data.

I had thought there was predicted to be still a lot of wind shear mid-Gulf, which would inhibit development? Sea surface temps are around 30 C, which otherwise would allow quick development.

Guess who had a nice, quiet, private AirBnB reserved for next week in Gulf Shores?

@Munch: Oops.

@Gray_Ghost: Per the 11am Fri NHC data, the two storms’ arrival times at the gulf coast is about 24-36 hours apart. Which is far enough apart to make the effect less prominent. But rest assured “Fujiwahara” will be the hot new vocabulary word of the week for everyone.

Funny enough about an hour ago I was yakking on the phone with a fellow pilot who’s lived in Miami for years but had moved away a few months ago. He mentioned having seen the converging wind fields near New Orleans. At which point I explained Fujiwahara to him and predicted it’ll be all over the airwaves & social media the next few days.

So I get off the phone & open this thread. What’s the 2nd post about? Fujiwahara. Heh

Apparently, in the time since I started this thread, Laura has slowed down and what is expected to be Marco has sped up. The current cones now have the former making landfall on Wednesday afternoon and the latter on Tuesday afternoon.

ETA: I just noticed something interesting about next year’s names. If they get down past “O”, there will be Peter and Rose.

I did hear on the Weather Channel that the eastern hurricane is at much lower risk of causing damage, because it’s predicted to go over Hispaniola and Cuba, which both have mountains which could cause the storm to drastically decrease in severity.

The 11am Sat NHC update for Marco has the most interesting wind field graphic I think I’ve ever seen.

Note I’m not sure if this link will point to the 11am graphic forever, or will always point to the most current graphic.

So it is actually pretty appropriate that two “two hurricanes to hit Gulf coast simultaneously” threads hit MPSIMS simultaneously.

With Laura currently projected to hit around Grand Isle, Louisiana, their wind field graphics have merged.

So it is actually pretty appropriate that two “two hurricanes to hit Gulf coast simultaneously” threads hit MPSIMS simultaneously.

:wink:

Because it’s 2020, two hurricanes may soon hit the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously.

My extended family is in Houston. One of the two storms is heading right for them. :worried:

The Bad News signs along the freeways here (Houston area) are currently switching among “COVID-19 Condition Red”, “Storm forming in Gulf - be prepared”, and an Amber alert for some jamoke driving a white Chevy pickup. I’m expecting one concerning a giant meteor any day now.

To be serious, a significant amount of wind shear near the coast means that the one aimed at Houston is likely to be a fairly weak system when it makes landfall. As long as it doesn’t stall out over the city we should be…more or less OK.

Whoa, whoa, whoa!

THERE’S AN AMBER ALERT FOR SOMEONE DRIVING A WHITE CHEVY PICKUP?!?

Seriously, I’ve got relatives in the Houston area. I hope all y’all are OK.

Moderator Note

The two threads have been merged. Apologies for any confusion that results from this.

You rang? It’ll probably miss us.

Wouldn’t one that small burn up in the atmosphere, even if it were headed right for us?

I hope I don’t get in trouble for whooshing a Mod.

@Darren_Garrison had made the funny comment that since we have two hurricanes it’s only appropriate that we have two threads.

So I impishly posted the very same words so we’d have two comments about two threads about two hurricanes.

Depends on the composition and impact angle. Nickel-Iron and straight down? Probably makes it to the ground. Stone or iceball, and glancing blow? Probably a mini-Chelyabinsk airburst. Playing with the guesses on size, I got anything from 1-10 or so kilotons of impact energy. Big light show, but probably not much else. Chelyabinsk was 400-500 kilotons by comparison.

I don’t know that the weather folks have a good handle yet on what either storm will do to the Gulf Coast. So much depends on wind shear; whether existing ridges will guide each storm, and how much; and what, if any, effects either storm will have on each other. In Houston, I am not expecting much besides some rain. Maybe intense rain for a bit. I do expect to lose power if either one hits strongly. If I were on the Coast, I’d proceed with the usual hurricane preps.

Or we could have something like this.

A few years later, we were watching a TV show about UFOs, and they showed this while the voiceover made a reference to weather balloons. My dad said, “That’s not a weather balloon” and he was right. It’s now believed to have been a meteoroid that passed through the atmosphere at about 40 miles up, and could have taken out a city if it had struck.

Down to just Laura now, currently projected to hit the Texas/Louisiana state line; Marco is post-tropical and dissipating south of Grand Isle.