Lord of the Rings Mafia

[special_ed]

@Chronos

With Plankton now dead, I see no reason not to resume my vote on special ed.

Vote special ed

This is based primarily on his vote for peeker yesterDay:

So, it’s possible that other Vanilla role PMs look different. I just think it unlikely. Which, as a corollary leads me to believe that you, peeper, are not in possession of a Vanilla Role PM.

Unvote: Chronos
Vote: peepercpa

First, there’s no evidence that peeker didn’t have a vanilla role PM, since he wisely didn’t say whether he had one or not, so ed is jumping to unwarranted conclusions, here. Second, not having the vanilla PM is hardly a reason to vote for someone, since the Town power roles don’t have it, either. Third, we’ve already come to an agreement that the Scum probably do have the vanilla PM, so the fact that (ed thinks) peeker doesn’t have the vanilla PM should make him think peeker is Town, not Scum. There are just multiple layers of incoherence, here.

Then, after I called him out on this, he comes up with a new argument: He thinks peeker is Scum because he’s playing differently than he did last time he was Scum. When I point out that this isn’t a good argument, either, he tries to claim that that was his original reason for voting, even though he didn’t mention it in his vote post, or at all, until after I pointed out that his original argument was bad.

Put this together with the fact that he didn’t unvote me once he realized his case on me was bad, and didn’t even admit that when he switched to peeker, it looks to me like he’s picking his targets first (both myself and peeker have had a history of it being easy to form bandwagons on us), and only then looking around for excuses to justify the votes.

OK, let’s go through this point by point, because it’s become apparent that Chronos just doesn’t like it when people think differently than he does.

1. Yes, peeker did reveal that he was not in possession of the Vanilla Role PM
2. Yes, that is a worthy reason for a vote especially on Day 1.
   2a. There’s a good chance that a non-Vanilla is a Scum.
   2b. Our goal in this game is to eliminate the Scum. It’s kinda the base concept around which the game revolves. I’ve never seen a win condition that says, “You must insure that the Town power roles survive.”
   2c. Therefore, finding Scum is more important than saving Town powers
   2d. Also, if I had figured out he wasn’t Vanilla, so had the Scum. I’m not going to assume that they don’t pick up on these things.
   2e. I suppose it is remotely possible peeker is Vanilla, but I see that as unlikely.
3. Peeker has previously changed playing style when Scum. In fact, when playing Scum, he has taken time to discuss what playing style he should use in the Scum thread.
   3a. If Scum, I’m certain that peeker would employ a different tactic than he did in Ragnarok and NSFW.
   3b. In my estimation, he was overcompensating for his Scum tells in those games.
   3c. There was no point in which a bell went off singalling that I should vote for him. I’m not even sure that it was a conscious concept. I did, however, know that during the Day, something about him was pinging me.

[special_ed]

@peekercpa

hey, ed you alluded to something upthread that you couldn’t talk about.

this really piques my interest. and i don’t want you to say something that you shouldn’t or can’t but i really would like some elaboration, if in fact you can provide it.

plus i seem to recall that you have claimed two role names (or someone said it). one that was original and then your final one. this REALLY piques my interest.

any additional data would be appreciated.

and if it is what i think it is i am going to laugh my ass to the bank.

I’ve been clear that I can only talk about it after the game.

I did not claim 2 names.

I claimed only 1 name after denying that I was a different name. I can restate that.

I am not Glorfindel.

I am Faramir.

[peekercpa]

and fuck ed where did i ever claim that i was not vanilla or in possession of “vanilla pm”. jeebus, read the fucking thread. i was not going, and will not on an ongoing basis, make scum lives easier for them by telling them what i am. you fucking did that you knucklehead.

it’s a bitch having to talk to your youngers like this. but necessary at times, me thinks.

ok, the rant needs to go, back in a sec.

[peekercpa]

well i missed the whole glorfindel thing. can you repoint me to that exchange?

[peekercpa]

and metagame is cool ed. the only point in your favor at this time is the fact that chronos is on your butt and kind of semi defending me which frankly makes me nervous as hell.

i just can’t see a scum bus on Day 2 after losing one on Day 1.

so if i was a disinterested observer i would be concluding that one of the three of is scum. and to be totally honest i don’t think it is you.

unvote brian setzer.

and fuck maybe you and chronos set this shit up. it feels like a play you would make.

you are such a turd. and i went ahead and retrofitted the garage so you will have ac, btw.

[peekercpa]

@special_ed

I’ve been clear that I can only talk about it after the game…

<snipped>

now that is a handshake.

[Hoopy_Frood]

First of all, to continue from yesterDay:

vote: Chipacabra

…for the same reason as yesterDay.

Now, peeker. You took me to task for saying had Plankton been town, I wasn’t going to grill the voters on him for that, since his claim stunk, and the only reason I wasn’t voting him was because he claimed a power role–particularly one that requires returning info every Day. (Detective is a hard claim to fake. Especially if and when 3rd parties are around. In Arkham, we had a scum–who wasn’t privy to the scum board–who was an alignment detective. He claimed a 3rd party as town, and was later counter-claimed by a town detective–there were actually a handful of detectives each with their own twists and aligments–who had actually investigated that 3rd party. In a game this large, it’s likely we have 3rd parties.)

Now, the town motivation for what I was doing is pretty obvious: Not faulting those voting a player that I found suspicious.

But what is the scum motivation? You found it suspect, but why? If scum, I would have known whether he was scum or not. If anything, I would want to take to task those who voted a townie with a claimed power role. If he’s scum and destined to die, why would I even mention that he could be town? It’s not like my actions were going to by me townie cred either way. So I ask you again: what was so suspicious about it?

[peekercpa]

au contaire, hoopy.

you seemed to want to have it both ways. not vote for burb but kind of be like: “well sheesh i can kind of see it”. and i can see a total scum motivation for not getting behind a “me too” type of bandwagon. and to be totally fair, this applies to myself as well.

so yeh, there is a heck of a lot of scum motivation in what you did. the only difference is that i know that i am town and have no clue what you are.

[Hoopy_Frood]

@peekercpa

au contaire, hoopy.

you seemed to want to have it both ways. not vote for burb but kind of be like: “well sheesh i can kind of see it”. and i can see a total scum motivation for not getting behind a “me too” type of bandwagon. and to be totally fair, this applies to myself as well.

so yeh, there is a heck of a lot of scum motivation in what you did. the only difference is that i know that i am town and have no clue what you are.

But what is the scum motivation for not getting behind a me too wagon? Plankton at that point was going to swing. Regardless of what I do, I get no townie cred. There’s nothing wrong with jumping on a bandwagon late. Town and scum both do it. It’s a null tell. It buys you nothing other than going on record as voting someone late. I was consistent in that I said I wasn’t going to vote a claimed power role on Day 1.

What does not jumping on a bandwagon get scum when the scum says he’s not going to take to task those who did? There is motivation if that player is town and you plan to use that fact against the voters. But this is the complete opposite situation. You still haven’t explained how, if I were scum, these actions were going to benefit me in any way.

[peekercpa]

@Hoopy_Frood

@peekercpa

au contaire, hoopy.

you seemed to want to have it both ways. not vote for burb but kind of be like: “well sheesh i can kind of see it”. and i can see a total scum motivation for not getting behind a “me too” type of bandwagon. and to be totally fair, this applies to myself as well.

so yeh, there is a heck of a lot of scum motivation in what you did. the only difference is that i know that i am town and have no clue what you are.

But what is the scum motivation for not getting behind a me too wagon? Plankton at that point was going to swing. Regardless of what I do, I get no townie cred. There’s nothing wrong with jumping on a bandwagon late. Town and scum both do it. It’s a null tell. It buys you nothing other than going on record as voting someone late. I was consistent in that I said I wasn’t going to vote a claimed power role on Day 1.

What does not jumping on a bandwagon get scum when the scum says he’s not going to take to task those who did? There is motivation if that player is town and you plan to use that fact against the voters. But this is the complete opposite situation. You still haven’t explained how, if I were scum, these actions were going to benefit me in any way.

it’s easy. you get to post the next Day that i didn’t “me too” and try to buy some cred for that. that’s some pretty serious scum motivation.

[peekercpa]

wifom hoopy, wifom.

but if you think you get any town cred for not going “me too” well it’s not coming from me.

[Hoopy_Frood]

@peekercpa

wifom hoopy, wifom.

but if you think you get any town cred for not going “me too” well it’s not coming from me.

Why would I get town cred for that?

You seem to miss the times I said yesterDay that I wasn’t going to get cred for it. And I’ve repeated that toDay. Because there is no logical reason why anyone would give town cred for someone not joining a bandwagon on a scum. It’s a null-tell action.

You’re acting like I was looking for cred, even after I said outright that my actions weren’t going to by me cred.

Are you even reading what I write for comprehension, or are you just trying to find pointless and incorrect things to nitpick. Now, that has scum motivation. (Just ask Drain Bead who has a theory that has served her well that scum tend to overly nitpick insignificant things.)

[special_ed]

@peekercpa

well i missed the whole glorfindel thing. can you repoint me to that exchange?

post 967

@special_ed

@Telcontar

Yay magic bags! If you weren’t swinging already, you’d probably swing for that.

I just want to reaffirm that I’m in favor of giving suburban a night to see what he does, but I don’t actually trust him. I also don’t trust peeker or Gadarene (and will be very worried about the latter if suburban turns out to be town). So, Ed, we at least have some suspicions in common.

It’s not really a magic bag, because, I promise I won’t reveal to you what I know. Ever. Well, at least during the game.

I will tell you this, however. My role PM as posted is accurate.

I am not Glorfindel.

I am Faramir.

[peekercpa]

@special_ed

@peekercpa

well i missed the whole glorfindel thing. can you repoint me to that exchange?

post 967

@special_ed

It’s not really a magic bag, because, I promise I won’t reveal to you what I know. Ever. Well, at least during the game.

I will tell you this, however. My role PM as posted is accurate.

I am not Glorfindel.

I am Faramir.

jeebus ed i know that, but where did the glorfindel thing ever rise up initially?

[special_ed]

@peekercpa

and fuck ed where did i ever claim that i was not vanilla or in possession of “vanilla pm”. jeebus, read the fucking thread. i was not going, and will not on an ongoing basis, make scum lives easier for them by telling them what i am. you fucking did that you knucklehead.

Yes, I did it. I tried a gambit and I gave up more information than I intended. We’ve already covered that and I think everyone would agree that if I were Town (which I know to be true), then I made a mess of things with my gambit.

You’re asking how I knew you didn’t have a Vanilla PM. I remember being so very sure of it after reading this post (number 784)

@peekercpa

and that is where i have a little bit of difficulty with ed. i understand what he was trying to accomplish if he is vt. but that is not a given. and to some extent it is also self defeating in that even if he is vt then all he does is narrow down the pool where scum will most likely fire. i mean certainly if scum take out too many unconfirmed then they have nowhere to go but early on i think it a dangerous ploy. i think this is why he as always seemed to espouse non necessary vt claims early on as poor play. first they are basically useless to uninformed townies, second if you are lying you are typically going to get lynched as a matter of policy (i know i said i was niller but i was kidding - trust me this time) and third scum will typically look elsewhere to go hunting. and if scum were provided a vt pm then the whole handshake business doesn’t do anything except blind folks that scum could be hiding in the “confirmed” vt pool.

which by the way would suck badly.

I am struggling to remember why it seemed so apparent then, but I can’t remember what made me so certain at that time. Though, I do still see reason to suspect what I thought I was certain of.

Right now, All I have to go on is what was printed in my role PM (I am Faramir. I am not Glorfindel.)

I am forbidden to go into why I can’t talk more about this.

But, just for fun, here’s post 974 from an exchange between Hoopy and myself.

@special_ed

@Hoopy_Frood

What was the Glorfindel thing? Did I miss something?

And why can’t you reveal what you know? Is it role-related, or mod-slip related? Or can’t you even say that much?

I suppose I can tell you that it is not role related.

And no, in regards to not being Glorfindel, you did not miss anything.

I would distrust anyone claiming to be Glorfindel, however you have no reason to.

[Hoopy_Frood]

Some vote analysis:

923:

Suburban(6): Hoopy, Oredigger, Cucuy, Chipacabra, Nanook, Red Skeezix

USCDiver(2): Drainbead, Gadarene

Peeker(2): Natlaw, SpecialEd

Astral(2): OneandOnly, USCDiver

Pleonast(2): Meeko, Suburban

SpecialEd(4): Astral, Chronos, Telcontar, MHaye

MHaye(1): Pleonast

This vote is really interesting. Red Skeezix is the first to revote a claimed power role. A claimed power role who he had just unvoted not to long before (post 897). A power role who’s vote total is really close to another player who’s alignment is currently unknown. This is one Hell of a bus job, or Red Skeezix looks very likely to be town here, particularly if Ed is discovered not to be scum.

---

Next up by post 930, both I and Chipacabra have unvoted Suburban. Thereby the two of us caused a tie between Ed and Suburban at four votes each. But along comes Gadarene, who after ripping apart the claim, unvotes USCDiver and puts Suburban into the lead. Once again, either it’s a Hell of a bus job, or we have a strong Town tell:

Suburban(5): Oredigger, Cucuy, Nanook, Red Skeezix, Gadarene

USCDiver(1): Drainbead

Peeker(2): Natlaw, SpecialEd

Astral(2): OneandOnly, USCDiver

Pleonast(2): Meeko, Suburban

SpecialEd(4): Astral, Chronos, Telcontar, MHaye

MHaye(1): Pleonast

---

Post 1005: Up until this point, a few more people jump on Suburban (peeker, ed, and Pleo, respecitively). Suburban now has a comfortable 3 vote lead over Ed (since Suburban, unsurprisingly, is voting Ed at this point). However, Chipicabra changes that with a vote for Ed, bringing Ed within 2. This vote is suspicious not only because of the waffling, but also because we know now that plankton is scum, and that second fact is another reason why I’m voting Chipicabra toDay. The vote count is now:

Suburban(8): Oredigger, Cucuy, Nanook, Red Skeezix, Gadarene, Peeker, Ed, Pleonast

USCDiver(1): Drainbead

Peeker(1): Natlaw

Astral(2): OneandOnly, USCDiver

Pleonast(1): Meeko

SpecialEd(6): Astral, Chronos, Telcontar, MHaye, Plankton, Chipicabra

---

Post 1009: Guiri puts suburban back into a 3-vote lead. This bodes well for Guiri:

Suburban(9): Oredigger, Cucuy, Nanook, Red Skeezix, Gadarene, Peeker, Ed, Pleonast, Guiri

USCDiver(1): Drainbead

Peeker(1): Natlaw

Astral(2): OneandOnly, USCDiver

Pleonast(1): Meeko

SpecialEd(6): Astral, Chronos, Telcontar, MHaye, Plankton, Chipicabra

---

Post 1020: Peeker unvotes suburban, votes chip instead. I view this as largely null at this point. Sure he brings Ed subtly closer to a now-known scum in vote count, but he votes a person I find to be scummy instead. Until more info is known on people’s alignments, it’s a data point that really can’t be evaluated.

Suburban(8): Oredigger, Cucuy, Nanook, Red Skeezix, Gadarene, Ed, Pleonast, Guiri

USCDiver(1): Drainbead

Peeker(1): Natlaw

Astral(2): OneandOnly, USCDiver

Pleonast(1): Meeko

SpecialEd(6): Astral, Chronos, Telcontar, MHaye, Plankton, Chipicabra

Chipicabra(2): Hoopy, Peeker

---

Finally in post 1075, Drain Bead puts the final nail in the Suburban Bandwagon, by giving him yet another 3 vote lead. At that point, it’s too late in the Day for Suburban to be saved no matter what without his scum buddies completely exposing themselves. This give her a decent datapoint in the town column. After her, the bandwagon roles into the final vote count.

[peekercpa]

@special_ed

I am struggling to remember why it seemed so apparent then, but I can’t remember what made me so certain at that time. Though, I do still see reason to suspect what I thought I was certain of.

Right now, All I have to go on is what was printed in my role PM (I am Faramir. I am not Glorfindel.)

<snipped>

well where in the world did glorfindel come from?

i swear to god you get the bottom bunk for this nonsense.

[peekercpa]

let’s go scum hunting.

- YouTube

[Gadarene]

Vote Chipacabra for the reasons given by myself and Hoopy at the end of Day One.

[peekercpa]

@Gadarene

Vote Chipacabra for the reasons given by myself and Hoopy at the end of Day One.

pretty good safe choice.