I can answer that one. Because in order to honestly believe that a third party has a viable chance of obtaining any real political power, you have to be bullgoose loony, and preferably batshit insane…
I don’t agree. An entire third party is unlikely, but I can see an independent winning an election for President. The most likely scenario is someone a little too conservative for Democrats, or a little too liberal for Republicans, who loses in their party’s primaries but has good support by middle of the roaders. Mitt Romney could have fit the bill until he re-swallowed the Republican kool-aid.
Former CNN anchor Lou Dobbs has indicated that he might consider an independent bid for the White House in 2012, and early polling shows he could attract up to 14% of the vote. However, some of that is almost certainly a generic protest vote as an unnamed “some other candidate” picks up between six percent (6%) and nine percent (9%) of the vote in similar 2012 match-ups.