Right. I understand now.
A comment, two questions, then I’ll write an economics post to try to contribute rather than just feed.
Comment: Lib, in these places the fables told by libertarian public choice types are literally true. The state really is a gangster.
Questions: 1. Blair made a bit of a show a couple of weeks ago about preserving the territorial integrity of Iraq. Aside from assuring that the Kurds maintain their traditional place in history, is this of any importance? Does it resonate at all outside the elite? Is it of even second-order importance to governments of the region aside from Turkey?
- Before Baker fixed up support for the last Gulf War, I seem to recall some concern about the reaction of former Soviet states like Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Chechyna. I’ve heard nothing this time. Aside from the Chechens, is there cause for concern, or is the instability likely to be confined?
Good understand I am looking at this stuff literally on the fly. This (the war) is not an abstract crisis for me professionally.
The State and its elite.
Well, none fo the Arab states in the Middle East are based on traditional boundries - ex Egypt Oman and Yemen to an extent - and none have real internal legimitacy. There are various forms of confused nascent nationalisms (such that we seeing the Shiites are none too happy for the Kafir invaders to “liberate” them), so leaving aside Turkish concerns, seeing one Arab state disintegrate in the region is likely to have real repercussions.
Further, there is the issue of Arab prestige. Arabs are not going to like to see a de-Arabization of the Iraqi state., ancient seat of the Abbasides. AGain, it goes to the sense of pride.
I could go on and on about the minefields here. My pessimism on this issue is fact driven.
Sorry, I have been fixated on local developments, Eva Luna is more likely to have some informed comment.
I think this thread should be a sticky for the duration of the war, to provide an antidote to some of the more jingoistic and hysterical threads.
I try and avoid “me too” posts, but I agree with DDG, and I hope this thread maintains that purely informative nature. It probably treads too much GD territory to be moved to GQ, but I’ve gained better insight reading this one thread this morning than I have listening to news “analysis” the whole past week.
‘Stickify the Lounsbury Thread’ movement, anyone?
As you collectively wish. I don’t care one way or the other.
When Collounsbury and I come to a mutual understanding, you may take it as a sign that genuine communication has occured.
I like the idea. This thread is as informative as it is terrifying.
Daniel
Collounsbury-
A couple of questions regarding the war-
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at this point, is there anything in particular that the US gov’t could do while continuing to fight the war to sway public opinion in the region? (I’m not necessarily speaking of military strategies here, by the way)
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This question feels a little culturally biased, but is there any hope that the population in Iraq would be able to handle democracy or representative government? In view of your comments about the tribal nature of relations in the region, it seems to this outsider that any ostensibly democratic government would simply serve to prop up the next strongest person, and would not give any freedom to the people, other than freedom from Saddam.
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The kurds- how badly will things go if the Turks move in in force to “control” the Kurdish areas in Northern Iraq? Do you think that the Turks will do so despite the US and the EU leaning on them to abstain? I think that how the discussions over using Turkey as a military jumping-off point shows exactly how clueless the Bush admin is about the nature of politics in the area.
You know, I was really hoping that you were going assuage some of my concerns about how this was done, and how it is going… eep.
blanx
Not to clutter this thread, but I also would like this stickied.
This is what’s nasty and frightening. The story you linked to has a related article Anne Krueger congratulating Egypt on its float. I remember asking Krueger a few years ago - in regard to the Argentine tablita “solution” - “What makes you think there is any way out of this?” and being disheartened by what to me seemed a waffley answer. These days, currency controls cannot work if they are needed (except in near-Autarky countries). I just don’t see that how places like Egypt can implement the reforms necessary to get rid of their extreme vulnerability. It takes more time and power than they have. I don’t think
I think they can’t. And that’s potentially really, really bad.
The consequences of financial collapse were appalling in Indonesia - removing the GDP per capita gains of thirty years’ development - but for non-oil-rich Middle East countries the aftermath of failed states is a pretty hideous vista (unless you are Bin Laden). I doubt these countries will face a transition problem. They face utter collapse.
For the oil-rich states, of course, the prospect of financial instability is less worrying, because the real exchange rate (how many imports your barrel of oil buys you) is what matters. Trade disruption (as well as regional political upheaval) is the worry there.
In feudal/ traditional economies, it’s hard not to sound like a Marxian when talking development. The rent-driven wealth of the oil nations clearly supports their hierarchical political structure, and equally stymies their institutional development. The “thin” integration of trade-related activity in the economy (“exporting to the developed world with little internal lateral connnections”) is required to keep the elite in control. A curse that comes with resource riches. That, to me, sounds like a good story. But why does the pattern apply to the non-oil-rich countries?
[added in preview]
Quite. I saw a brilliant (albeit depressing) presentation recently on “Nietzschean Development Failures” which may interest you. I’ll see if I can find a link to the working paper.
(1) On the military front, show a willingness for Americans to die. Yes, that’s right, if we are claiming we’re coming in to liberate the populace, to spare them of oppression etc, we have to put our blood where our rhetoric is.
As an Iraqi here told me (very loose translation), “If you say you are after Sadaam and to liberate, do not kill the people, and do not show that our civilian blood counts for less than your soldier’s blood.”
Let me be categorical on this: we walked into this war with a reputation for not caring for the “brown peoples” lives as much as our own, if we want to build a good rep, sparing civilians is de rigeur. Else… well just send the nice agitprop package to the al-Qaeda folks.
If people are going to die, at least let us do it so that it comes out right. Mind you, it seems to me to date that this is being done to an extent, but when push comes to shove, in Baghdad and Basra… If we start leveling blocks to spare a few GIs, then we are not really sparing those GIs, we are defering the issue.
(2) The Adminsitration needs to stop the masturbatory rhetoric and look to devising comunication strategies more akin to the British. In both case, both the Brits and the Americans need to engage Arab rhetoric, not harp on our view point. We have already learned, I would hope, that berating the world does not convince.
(3) Stop doing things that look Imperialistic. Get the UN and others in on reconstruction, stop looking like we’re handing out spoils of war to Halliburton et al.
(4) End the talk about Iraqi oil paying for reconstruction, this is enraging people as they interpet it as Americans stealing their “natural heritage resources.”
In the near term, no.
Democracies are like plants with specific soil requirements. We need to cultivate the proper soil resources. That takes patience and good gardening.
See Egypt. Bingo. Hukoumet al-mamalike.
[quote]
- The kurds- how badly will things go if the Turks move in in force to “control” the Kurdish areas in Northern Iraq? Do you think that the Turks will do so despite the US and the EU leaning on them to abstain? I think that how the discussions over using Turkey as a military jumping-off point shows exactly how clueless the Bush admin is about the nature of politics in the area.
[/quote
Bady but very hard to tell. Depends on precisley what the Turks do and when.
I am in the midst of this shit.
However, again, this can come out right if done right, but we need to start doing a much better job at dealing with the complexities.
Good god, it is great to have you back, Collounsbury. Thank you for what must have been your considerable time in composing those posts.
My question is this: What is the best way of going about forming a post-Dubya Dubya II government in Iraq, and what should that government look like if it is going to have any chance of maintaining Iraq as a viable nation?
In addendum to minty g:
Do you know of any who might best fit the crown of “nationalistic theocratic relatively benign despot with tendency towards token acts of democratic seeding” in the new Iraq (perhaps even literally)?
Yes.
Egypt… Egypt is a fucking disaster waiting to happen.
You have no idea how bad it will be.
Something has to give eventually, a million new Egyptians a year, roughly 40 K of arable land on either side of the Nile, limited natural resources, a vampire state and water usage already above disputed treaty levels and rapidly moving towards absolure water scarcity. Add to this soil salinization…
If we are going to look to the long term, let the fucking Mubarek government go now, because we’re building up to a Shah type situation, only perhaps twice as bad.
Well, I see the scenario as an utter collapse followed by the emergence of a hyper-radical messianic goverment. Better a collapse now, and a goverment with Islamic roots but at least moderatly rational than what we are building up to in about say a decade.
Gulf is fine, near term. Their threat is an oil price collapse. Even the Saudis absolutely need around $24/bl for budget reasons (business wise, they can go real low if they want to, maybe $10?).
Debt funding, West especially USA propping up compliant regimes in a quasi military sense. Add to this inherited rentier state traditions, both colonial and pre-colonial and you have a bad mix. Something has to give.
Good, thanks.
I understand the political and social situation in Egypt, but I don’t think I understand the economic problems they are facing. Is it a lack of infrastructure? Lack of exportable goods? Lack of resources? Is there anything that could conceivably fix the economic problems of the Egyptian state in the relatively near future? Or at least get them started on the road to economic stability?
It has been therapeutic, although I will not be able to keep this up.
I wish I knew.
Really.
Ahhh. I don’t know.
I’m at a loss because the tensions between near term and long term needs are so high, because what I think would actually hold Iraq together will be off the table.
I fear we have Egypt on the Euphrates in our future. A General cum President at the head of a semi-reconstituted Baath like secular party with about as much real legitimacy playing the lap dog to an American adminstration. Just waiting for the recognitin of Israel for it to lose all legitimacy.
I don’t know, I’ll have to ponder.
Coll- Thanks for your responses-
I guess the 64,000 question is whether the Bush gov’t is capable of doing any of those things. I fear the answer is no.
Sadly, I think that when the fighting gets to Baghdad, the Iraqi use of guerrilla warfare may help the US.
Is there a royal family floating about the area which could be pressed into service? I’m thinking of something analogous to what happened in Jordan…
blanx
In re the last, the last King of Iraq, a relative of the current King of Jordan (The Hashemite family from Mecca) was hung in a popular uprising.
That egg is broken, it can not be restored.
I do not see how urban warfare in Baghdad will help the US, to the contrary.
W
I think I was too brief in saying guerrilla warfare-
When the Iraqi’s increase the use of “non-kosher” tricks- e.g. human shields, fighting in civillian clothes, pretending to surrender, basically using the tools they have in the face of overwhelming military might- if the US is able to not respond in kind- razing city blocks, using Israeli-style anti terrorism tactics- it may help with the public opinion.
The likelihood of this is not great.
Too bad about the king- a royal family might serve as a decent intermediary step.
blanx