Actually I was hoping you and others might join in thinking out loud about economic risks. I have my POV, but I am up to my neck in the situation. I might even get something I can use out of that.
**
Please! I’m just starting to enjoy this thread. I can’t have you red-lining already; we’ve got a long way to go. 
REcall, all, that Sadaam is said to have closely studied Stalin and his methods. The present situation appears to reflect almost the same strategy.
Good lord not Gulf Arabs. That is the last thing you want, nobody likes them, and since it is an open secret they support the war…
No, no. Not Qataris, not Bahrainis and CERTAINLY NOT Kuwaities.
Jrodanians, yes. Egyptians, well okay, Lebanese, okay, Omanis, ideal but hard to swing. Syrians, well not bloody likely. Jordanians and Palestinians are the best of the lot. (North Africans I leave out bec. of linguistic divides)
An Arab League supported staffing might be an ideal choice, but make sure the pompous Egyptians don’t take over the show. They’re possibly the worst model for staffing a government.
No, Turks are a stunningly bad choice. This region does not forget. Ottoman “occupation” and all that.
Pipe dream. These two societies are very very different and have not had a common history in reality in more than a century.
No. Turkish particp in government is right out.
In rebulding, well that is actually a super idea, but in government, no, no, no.
Pity as the French are wildly popular nowadays in the Arab world.
Problem is (a) American government does not generally trust 1st generation folks and (b) 2nd generation folks are generally highly assimilated. I speak better Arabic, both dialect and formal, than most Arab Americans I have met (meaning 2nd generation born and raised in the USA).
I think that is fair, although a better characterization of elite than popular opinion. Pop opinion is probably more 50/50.
You have hit the nail on the head. Emphasis added on the most important obs.
No, I do not think it will evaporate quickly, it will subside but not evaporate.
The problem is the manner in which this has happened has only reinforced the sense of helplessness and humiliation in the Arab world. American muscles in against the will of essentially the entire world (with the facade of a ‘coalition’) and ‘remakes’ the benighted locals.
That resentment is going to stick - it can however, be overcome if things go well, and we are scrupulous about making it an Iraqi affaire w/o sweetheart deals to American firms that will reinforce the colonial accusations.
Yes.
I’ll say that for all my criticisms, I am raring to go to work when things stop, in the ring of transformation I am.
Yup.
Agitprop all around. Double helpings on Fridays.
You’re right, sorry about that. I did mean that Lib, you have to step outside of … wel a very particular world view to get a grasp on these things.
I should not have called it peculiar, that’s unnecessary, but let me fairly say that Libertarianism a la Lib is fairly far away from the realities of this region. Or close, in the sort of photo negative sense.
But sorry about the wording there.
Besides, the term “gangster” was applied to a specific regime, Saddam’s to be precise.
Here’s a good article: http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2002/05/bowden.htm
Scroll down for a description:
Apropos nothing, Saddam’s step-dad reportedly was a local bully/petty thief known as “Hassan the liar”. (Pollack, p.7)
Collounsbury:
Re: Well-Informed Cost/Benefit Analysis
- This question seems mute now, but I’m curious.
Given Saddam’s access to considerable funds from smuggled oil (via Iran, Syria, and Turkey), an eroded sanctions regime, a small force of inspectors running around the country and the ability to create bio-weapons using fairly small facilities, how long would it take Saddam to develop WMDs? I’m defining a WMD as a weapon that is likely to kill upwards of 10,000 people at once, eg. weaponized smallpox or nukes. Put another way, is this “medium run problem” a 3-5 year problem, a 5-10 year problem or what?
(I would prefer to discuss this at a more fundamental level than whether aluminum tubes constitute proof of WMDs or not. If possible.)
- My perception of the situation draws heavily (ok, entirely) on Pollack’s The Threatening Storm (2002). Do you have an opinion regarding the quality of Pollack’s analysis?
As always, feel free to ignore the preceding given time constraints and whatnot. Thanks and welcome back.
“Seems if they had that much influence they’d stand to gain as much or more from a successful revolt that left substantial parts of the south in the hands of pro-Iranian forces who would for diplomatic reasons would be problematic for the Anglo-American forces to deal with.”
The point is that they may be more worried about future American policy than the local situation in South Iraq. If the Americans were to win very quickly and easily that would strenghthen the position of the hawks in the adminstration who would perhaps start pushing for a war against Iran. The ideal situation from Iran’s pov. may be a difficult American victory which strengthens the position of Shias in post-Saddam Iraq but which is costly enough to dissuade the US from future wars in the region. And Iran could still get pro-Iranian forces in Iraq to revolt later when they calculate that the war has gone on long enough.
All this is speculation of course and you are right that there are other explanations. But I thought I would throw this around. The fellow on ABC seemed to know what he was talking about.
Well, is the safest thing for a father to do, to illustrate you’re not in Kansas, when riding with his infant son to market in a pick-up taxi, is to sit on the edge of the pickup bed and hold him up to see the countryside?
I’ve seen plenty of such things.
Awareness and habits.
I don’t know what happened there, I have not seen the video and all I can say is either scenario seems reasonable to me, that of our ex-Gulf based comrade or yours.
I don’t know. If it is the former, than I can simply say that consciousness of danger and ideas of how to deal with it are variable. If it is the latter, then it is beastly, as I said.
I find your latter characterization annoying.
To the first part, I do not know what the Fedayeen Sadaam are really doing. I hear the claims, and then I hear the counter claims. It of course is helpful for the Anglo-American forces to claim it’s all Sadaam’s thugs, and the inverse. Given what I have read and heard on the nationalist reaction in Iraq in some quarters, I am guessing you have a mixture of both genuine popular resistance to our troops, as well as welcoming (and sometimes maybe both, depending on the mood), and Sadaam’s boys donig very, very ugly things.
Now how the fuck you are getting this is painting “all Arabs” as something, I do not know.
“Arabs” are not savage, war is savage and in wartime people tend to do savage things. To the extent the populace and Arabs in general see this war as a threat to them, they will do savage things, much as you have seen Americans here on these boards in the past – far further removed from real threat – propose savage things.
That is the nature of war. Period. American and Brit soldiers are likely to do nasty things, to save their lives, and they will be justified, on a personal level.
I have made the argument that in the interest of the State and in the long term interest of the American people that we be willing to see some of our soldiers die to spare Iraqi civilian lives. That is a cold political calculation looking to political ends, and long term goals.
I don’t plan to engage in easy arm-chair morality in critiquing American soldiers, and I don’t see much point in easy outrage about imagery I have not seen, one way or another. I expect savagery, I expect nastiness.
Now as to the idea that Arabs are “idiots” – well I have no idea where you get this from. Perhaps you believe that because they do not see the 'self-evident" superiority of our/your/Western ways of thinking, they are idiots.
Well that is not my opinion. Cultures and societies change at their own pace, I have no small love for the good parts, IMO, of the local scene, but there is a lot of adopting local culture needs to do to very different circumstances. That is a process, I have seen it happening, and it can only happen in nativized ways.
If this is myopic of them, that people have to find their own ways of doing things, then… whatever.
Oh yes, people were shocked and horrified. I never heard anyone make a punishment from God argument. I’m sure it may have been made somewhere, but I think only really radical folks would make that argument.
This year has been one of wierd weather. I was snowed in for three days… here in the Middle East, snowed in. Back in early Feb. Just had another snowfall.
Yes, a number of people see this as God expressing displeasure against the Americans.
I will be more categorical.
Crock.
Arab sympathy for the Germans was anti-British, not ideological. Few is anyone had a clear idea of what Nazism was/is. Frankly it is far too alien to the Middle East for people to really wrap their minds around.
The Jewish angle needs to be understood in the context of Jews “collaborating” with the British invaders/ European invaders. Different from when the Crusaders came and massacred them (the Jews), late 19th /early 20th century liberals saw the Jewish communities as a means of (a) influencing the ME and (b) divide and conquer. Plus they had better language skills. So, Jews were granted better rights than were prevalent pre-colonial (and in fact the pre-colonial situation had degraded the rights that the Dhimma peoples should have had under Islamic law).
Obviously Jews went for that big time – and why not? But that did breed resentments. A long and ugly history, colonial use of minorities to divide and conquer – and of course the ugliness of suppression of minorities before the colonial rule…
In the classic Middle East, almost everyone sees them that way. Hard not to.
Egypt, Oman and Yemen are exceptions since they more or less match historical states. Nothing being perfect, it’s pretty close. Everyone else is largely a fiction, in a manner.
Nota Bene, by chance of history the North African states, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco more or less match historical entities as well, and you find that national identities and loyalties are a lot clearer, tribalism largely dead in that region. Largely.
[quote]
Or are those of each particular nation highly partisan to their own nation.
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To confound us further, this is also true. It takes some time to get used to the implicit cognitive dissonance, but that is what makes the classic Middle East so bloody unstable.
Arab Nationalism still gets kicked around, but no one really truly believes it. It is an icon of faith more than a thing people will work for.
The United Arab Republic collapsed, with Egyptian troops fighting Yemenis, out of just these contradictions. Everyone wants unity… on their terms. Think of it like the ‘coalition of the willing’
No.
As Asaam Rifaat, head of al-Ahraam al-iqtisaadi told me “All Arab agreements go right into the freezer.”
Welcome aboard Sam old man.
I don’t believe I said otherwise. I was making a warning, not a present critique, although nota bene, read the BBC articles linked in my message touching on opinion.
Rules of engagement are loosening. I am warning that loosen them too far and you are not really sparing soldiers’ lives, you’re defering combat.
Or so it has been reported, although Arab TV broadcasts live from Basra suggest the uprising was limited.
The remainder of this is military analysis neither of us is qualified to make.
Very fair and a good point that was in fact lost in the thicket.
It is my hope that this will continue.
Precisely. The P’s are a nascent nation w/o a nation. Very volatile.
Well-educated Arabs btw 45-60 essentially.
Exact.
Exactely.
A pan Arab nation gets very little play any more, and no serious play.
Let me be a bit rude but to the point, Pan-Arabism is the “Lit Crit” academic thinking of the Arab world. Intellectual masturbation by ineffectual people holed away in academic posts.
But nota bene, this is torn between Arabism and true Pan-Islamicism. To Arab Muslims of course, they see no contradiction, but obviously other Muslims… well are not quite of the same mind.
Interesting.
I would not be surprised.
As to the 2nd paragraph, last line. Yes, the adminstration has given them incentives to make things difficult.
However, to be fair to the Admin., they had few incentives to be enthus. about this either.
The problem overall is that this Admin has walked into a minefield w/o a clear idea of how extensive or how dangerous it is.
Libya, too, I’d think. Or at least Italian Libya seems to pretty much have encompassed the old reach of the Sanusiyya ( which granted isn’t particularly old by Middle Eastern standards ). I’ve never been entirely clear on the extent of competing influence or overlap of Tripolitania ( usually at least quasi-independant ) vs. Cyrenaica ( sometimes an Egyptian dependancy ) on the coast.
Maybe Bahrain is another example, but a pretty idiosyncratic one.
- Tamerlane
**
Well, since you seem to be soliciting WAGs, my nightmare scenario is an economic and political collapse in Turkey.
When the tough fighting starts around Tikrit, the Kurds seize their chance and declare an independent Kurdistan. The Turkish military comes barreling across the border. The Amercans order the Turks back, they refuse to go and a three-cornered fight develops among Turks, Kurds and American forces in the area.
Foreign investors and the Turkish elite bolt and every last bit of privately-held foreign exchange tries to flee the country overnight. Since the just-now-recovering Turkish economy is heavily dollarized, this result in almost total economic collapse. Needless to say, the Turkish Lira collapses and public disorder breaks out. The military – which had its doubts about the current civilian government anyway – steps in and takes power, thereby scotching any chance of Turkey even beginning discusions to join the EU for at least a decade.
Wouldn’t Gulf Arabs still be better than Americans? (I was, of course, joking about Kuwaitis) Part of the problem is finding suitably qualified – and suitably internationalist – candidates. I agree that Palestinians would be ideal, but Palestinians with extensive governmental and administrative experience are a bit thin on the ground just at the moment.
One of the reasons I think stocking up on Arabs from pretty much anywhere would be important is because of how it would be perceived outside Iraq. My great fear is that some paunchy retired general is going to get the job and staff the Iraqi “administration” with a bunch of people from McKinsey.
Exactely, I can’t be responsible for people not being able to distinguish between comments on a particular socio-political situation and “Arabs” in general.
As to incapacity. I have said more than once, there are ‘democratic’ roots in the region, but the history is such that it will take time and effort, good gardening to prepare them. I have also emphasized that these efforts must be nativized, not alien impositions. I specifically refered to the situation in Iran. There are important lessons there.
Now I am sorry if this all shattres some magical thinking and mystical understanding of the region. I do business in an ugly neighborhood, but there are good things here, beaten down, but here.
This stuff will not change overnight, and expectatinos of miracles will not get good policy.
So, you want to form realistic opinions? Read carefully and go in with your eyes open. I firmly believe change is possible, that the region has real potential and it is NOT a big shit hole as Brutus said in the Pit on this subject.
However, neither is it a garden ready sprout the magical democracy seeds Americans have come to sow.
It’s a rocky, long neglected field in which different plants grew. Beautiful, lovely in many ways, but hard goddamned work.
If we are not ready for this, then we should have never gotten into it. Period.
I think the description was accurate but a little overly negative. There are positive things in village life, it is not all fear and people … well there are moral rules and standards, often recog. to Westerners, but often very differently framed. But in regards to power, it is close to the truth as I understand it.
Military question, I don’t know. I personally consider the WMD squeeling to be a crock of shit.
Here is the only item I will offer on this, take it for what it is worth. I have a good friend in US service here whose job description makes him qualified to opine. Also an “Arabist.” His opinion was that the Regime did not present a present threat and that containment was the way to go.
You can take that for what it is worth. I will not identify job or position, for the obvious reasons.
No.
Maybe. Gulfies are none too popular. They also have not a deep skill base, most of the Gulf is really run by guest workers.
Not really, there are many in the Gulf, hanging about Europe, in Jordan. The Diaspora, not the P’s in the Territories.
Indeed. Indeed. Indeed.
The last thing that we need is a western consultant run administration putting in place idealized “best practicies” that will fall apart the moment we are gone.
This is why I am emphasizing growing the institutions from as much of a native base as possible. If the goverment instituions are some alien thing, an imported plant not adapted to local habits and the like, you get Egypt.
Actually, after a little poking about, definitely Libya. Seems Cyrenaica was included in the Ottoman beylik of Tripoli from the 16th century and the Karamanli dynasty continued that into the 19th century.
Sorry. Compulsive pedantry :).
- Tamerlane