Mafia: Cecilvania [Game Over]

The Game Room
481

Man, it’s been a busy day. I just completed reading the last 2 pages, and wish I had more time to chew on it, but I said I would be back tonight, so here I am. I am very conflicted about the OAOW lynch for several reasons, which I will try to explain:
[ul]
[li]I had been suspicious of OAOW prior to the storyteller fiasco, mostly because of the way he tag-teamed with CIAS about my lurker strategy. It seemed very opportunistic to me. However, since I was the target, that may have been OMGUS talking to me, so I just filed it away.[/li][li]His pursuit of storyteller was aggressive, certainly, I see that. When I first read it, though, it reminded me a little of myself vs. Idle Thoughts in Conspiracy. I was absolutely convinced Idle was scum, and everything he said seemed to confirm it for me. OAOW’s aggression reminded me of that (foolish) certainty - he sounded like someone who absolutely thinks he found a scum and was not going to let go.[/li][li]I don’t like how lopsided the voting is (aside from sach, of course). Wouldn’t the scum at least subtly be trying to shift attention to someone else? Nothing doing, though. There are no other viable candidates. In my experience, when that happens, often it is because there is a townie on the block. Not always, of course.[/li][li]And finally, sach was also on my suspicion list, as his play does seem off as others have mentioned, so it bothers me slightly that I agree with him about OAOW (if not as fervently :P)[/li][/ul]
So, where does that leave me? I don’t know. I am leaning against voting for OAOW at the moment, though.

That’s all I’ve got, right now.

482

I don’t know that scum would be trying to shift the voting - if OAOW is scum, some hard looks will be given at people who tried to shift the pattern of voting.

Sometimes, it’s better for scum to just hop on the lynch train early and accept that their fellow wolf is dead meat.

I haven’t weighed in on it yet, so I’ll do so now: I personally don’t believe that the slip by story was a scum claim. I’m leaning for trust him for now, but with large doses of salt.

I go to work a while before 9 tomorrow (central) and I won’t get back until after voting closes. I’ll make my vote in the morning, but won’t be able to change it.

483

Right, it’s the last few hours before the deadline and I still have a few doubts and queries.

My initial feeling is that **storyteller ** is scum, not just from the slip but also from instinct as well. If I said, its the fact that nothing seems wrong is what is puzzling me. I can normally find something slightly suspicious with everyone, but not **storyteller ** on this occasion. However, I can understand why people are unhappy with lynching him due to his roleclaim.

My thoughts on **OAOW ** is that he is town. Aggressive, bullheaded and quite happy to get himself lynched to prove a point, but town none the less.

I am going to do a reread and look at these further down the line. I think lynching **OAOW ** is a mistake, but whether anyone else is a good target, who knows.

484

[QUOTE=CatInASuit]

My thoughts on **OAOW ** is that he is town. Aggressive, bullheaded and quite happy to get himself lynched to prove a point, but town none the less.

[/QUOTE]

I wouldn’t say I was happy to get lynched, it’s just that the information provided by data mining day 1 once I am proved town will be valuable, and the loss of a vanilla isn’t devastating to town. If someone can find a better candidate, then sure lets lynch them, but failing that it looks like it’s gonna be me.

485

I’m starting to think that storyteller, OAOW, Blaster Master, and sachertorte are probably all Town.

story’s original slip didn’t seem damningly suspicious to me, and more importantly, his reactions to the situation rang true. Wanderers acted blind and overly aggressive in the way excited Townies tend to do, and his whole attack would be an illogical tactic for scum–why expose yourself by railing against someone who has already put the noose around his own neck? BlaM’s arguments are flawed, but I’m not ready to call him scum just for that. And sach simply hasn’t done anything suspicious.

Town-on-Town violence is the norm in the early game, so this isn’t an implausible scenario at all. I am happier keeping my vote out of this brouhaha.

486

Ok, re-read done and as such we have the ever changeable CIAS scumlist.

Totally Town
CIAS

Leaning Town
Shadowfacts
OAOW
BlaM!
Fretful Porpentine
sachertorte
Diggit Camera
Roosh
Koldanar

Unknown
Nanook of the Northshore
Roosh
Darth Sensitive
Hal Briston
Pollux Oil
Hockey Monkey

Scum
storyteller
Freudian Slit
WF Tomba

One thing did make me wonder while I was reading.

3 Scum.

Think about it for a moment. That’s 3 wolves, or 2 wolves and Dracula, or 1 wolf and 2 Vlad Tepes etc etc. all up against 14 town.

Just 3 scum. The only way that is going to work is if all the scum are all-powered and the town is vanilla.

If **storyteller ** had said 3 lynches with Dracula killing him/herself I could understand it. But he didn’t.

Next, WF Tomba: Someting about you is really setting off my scumdar. It may be because until I read back I had little awareness of you in game and I usually have and idea of what is going on. Your latest post is an example. It doesn’t read like perfect knowledge but like someone trying to cover all bases at the same time.

Finally, Freudian Slit,
Regardless of storyteller’s guilt/innocence, you are coming across, to me, as the scummiest thing currently. The wavering over turning Dracula in, followed by the suggestion that he has to have more powers than listed. Your vote for **OAOW ** was bandwagonish and the reasoning seemed to be more that OAOW initially wasn’t going to let storyteller try and prove his claim, even though by that point he had unvoted. But #375 where you say storyteller is not scummy, but then he might be scum and everyone will go after you because of it looks like covering all bases again for if/when storyteller is found to be scum. It’s also how you put yourself at the centre of it, even though there are plenty of people involved.

Sorry, something seems wrong here.

vote Freudian Slit

487

Well, Freudian is already on my list as already stated so in an effort to get a scum lynch today I will.

unvote Koldanar

vote Freudian Slit

This is not to say that I still don’t have misgivings about Koldanar, but it appears my vote will have more value on Freudian

488

Day 1 Vote Count (as of Post 487)
8 - OAOW: Fretful Porpentine, Blaster Master, storyteller, Freudian Slit, RoOsh, Nanook, Koldanar, Hal Briston
4 - Freudian Slit: Pollux Oil, Hockey Monkey, CatInASuit, OAOW
1 - sachertorte: DiggitCamara
1 - Hockey Monkey: ShadowFacts
1 - Diggit: WF Tomba
1 - Blaster Master: sachertorte

No Current Vote: Darth Sensitive

Day 1 ends at 4pm EDT today.

489

[QUOTE=WF Tomba]
This made me think of post 336, in which ShadowFacts similarly slipped a vague aspersion against me into the end of his post. I’m not sure if it’s just me being paranoid, but it’s starting to look like you, Shadow, and Darth are quietly stockpiling ammunition against me.

Although on review, I realize that it was Darth Sensitive who challenged me initially, and openly, so at least he’s not being sneaky about it. If I FOS him I’ve got to FOS you two as well, I suppose.

FOS Koldanar and ShadowFacts
[/QUOTE]

Upon review, I need to respond to this smudge, which implies that I was being “sneaky” and says I was “casting vague assertions,” both of which are crap. In that post 336, I say clearly that I don’t like WF Tomba’s ‘play it very close to the vest’ policy. Here’s the money quote:

[QUOTE=me]
Tomba’s keeping his opinions to himself until “necessary” is decidedly anti-Town, IMO.
[/QUOTE]

Nothing sneaky or vague about that.

Tomba, you’re welcome to be paranoid - it is mafia after all :wink: - but keep your smudges to yourself.

490

btw, i’m not familiar iwth the term ‘smudge’ can someone explain it to me please?

491

smudge (v): A statement that implicitly but not explicitly expresses suspicion of another player, without a direct “I find him suspicious” or a vote. Often considered a scummy tactic because it can be seen as an attempt to evade responsibility for any bandwagon that may result from the smudge.

Hi, all. I’m back. I survived training, and as a special bonus I now know what it’s like to sit through a four-hour presentation on HR Processes and another four-hour presentation (with role playing!) on “Mastering the Change Curve.”

I’ll catch up and be back with contribution a bit later.

492

I think that I’m going to:

Vote OAOW

The hammering of story just twinged me. I think that some suspicion is only natural, but I think that not giving him a chance to show himself as twon is bad.

I’m late to leaving. Adios!

493

[QUOTE=Pollux Oil]
He seems like he’s setting himself up for an “I told you so” moment if OAOW is lynched and turns up town. It’s almost like he’s put forth more effort in proving that he thinks OAOW is town than putting out ideas on who is scum.
[/QUOTE]

Well, by my estimation I’m putting myself in danger of being lynched tomorrow regardless of what OAOW turns up as. If he’s Town, I’ll be defending why I was defending someone I shouldn’t have known was Town. If he turns up Scum, I’ll be defending why I was defending Scum. So I’m screwed either way. What I do know is that the case against him is BS. Maybe it’s BS that happens to be targetting scum. If that’s the case then I’m in deep doo-doo and I’ll deserve to be lynched Tomorrow. But my fundamental point isn’t that OAOW is Town (though I do think that), but that the case against him is beyond weak. [I know what’s going through your head, He’s just laying groundwork to avoid the lynch Tomorrow!]

Your second charge that I’m not putting out ideas on who is scum is accurate though. Not intentional, but accurate. I’ve tried. Fretful, despite making me think Town early, said some things about storyteller that made me suspicious and I pursued that, but her answers satisfied me. I can’t produce suspicions out of nothing.

[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey]
On catching up, I just want to say how way out in left field it seems **sachertorte ** is right now, compared to how logical and spot on he’s been before. His arguments with Blaster Master and odd defense of **OAOW ** is out of character.
[/QUOTE]

I’m amused that so many people think they have become experts on my character.

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
The tricky part is what the probability is that scum would make the claim? I can go on and make guesses, but that’s kind of fruitless, so I’ll simply say, it’s definitely greater than 0, but probably substantially less than 1.
[/QUOTE]

This is where I disagree with you. Less than one, sure; but substantially? Not really. Essentially you are determining the probability of a false claim. My personal opinion is that Constable is the only viable false claim.
Masons: Will be refuted. Counterclaim is likely. (I’ll grant that counterclaiming isn’t always optimal, but the chance to deny a scum night action makes a mason counterclaim worth it).
Doctor: True Doc should be blocked and killed. Survival past the next day doesn’t look good.
So while Mason and Doctor could be viable false claims, I think Constable is the most compelling as it answers several Day Two problems (Why are you still alive? Doc protected me. Why don’t you have results? Roleblocked. Of course as scum he could make up results as well)
I’ve also stated that false claiming is (in my opinion) the absolute correct move for a scummy storyteller, especially if he has a Night Action. There is nothing to lose with a false claim, but something to gain. Therefore, I would put the probability you suggest much closer to unity.

[QUOTE=RoOsh]
I will add the comment, if I wasn’t voting for Wanders, I’d be voting for Sach as the 2nd most scummiest- because I still wouldn’t risk putting a claimed Cop up on the gallows just yet.
[/QUOTE]

Where have I put the claimed Cop at risk? I absolutely have not. I have not advocated lynching storyteller Today. I explicitly stated I wasn’t advocating that.

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]

[li]And finally, sach was also on my suspicion list, as his play does seem off as others have mentioned, so it bothers me slightly that I agree with him about OAOW (if not as fervently :P)[/li][/QUOTE]

Off from what?
The only person who is an expert on being me is me.
Since everyone else seems to think they are experts on my behavior, I’d like a list of actual behaviors that you expect from me that you are not seeing.

Are you expecting me to shut up when I see bullshit reasoning? That doesn’t sound like me at all.

[QUOTE=WF Tomba]
I BlaM’s arguments are flawed, but I’m not ready to call him scum just for that.
[/QUOTE]

You’re probably right. I think my vote on him yesterday was more OMGUS than I was willing to admit.

494

Town:
If you lynched me instead of OAOW, would you then take my caveats seriously? Because, I’m willing to do that.

495

[QUOTE=sachertorte]
Town:
If you lynched me instead of OAOW, would you then take my caveats seriously? Because, I’m willing to do that.
[/QUOTE]

sach, I really don’t get this. If you’re a Townie of any stripe, then you should be 100% certain of your own alignment. You surely aren’t any more certain of Wanderers’ alignment. Why would you trade a life you were 100% sure was Town for one about which your certainty is lower?

I don’t think it’s a scummy action - because why would one Wolf volunteer to die in place of another, knowing that the saved Wolf would probably be saved for a maximum of one Night? - but I do think it’s a fairly inexplicable one.

496

[QUOTE=sachertorte]
Town:
If you lynched me instead of OAOW, would you then take my caveats seriously? Because, I’m willing to do that.
[/QUOTE]

So in other words, you would rather be lynched than try and convince other players of the validity of your arguments.

You martyring yourself is unlikely to make people think that you were right in the first place.

Please try and find some scum instead, it will be more beneficial to the town in the long run.

497

The explanation is simple. Town is clinging to blatant circumstances instead of thinking through the underlying layers. The main case against OAOW is that he pressed for storyteller’s roleclaim. So many people are “Whoa, That’s so scummy!” Without thinking Why would a scum do that.
storyteller was going to claim. Does anyone think storyteller wasn’t going to claim?
What Town benefit was there to delay the claim?
I can argue two (well one and a half) pro-town reasons for pushing for an earlier claim:

  1. While I disagree with the assessment that a delay could be for scum wanting to formulate a claim, I had the same thought initially.
  2. Delaying the claim would have put us in a situation where storyteller claims and is not present to talk about it after the claim. By claiming earlier, storyteller was present for post-claim discussion. Had storyteller claimed at 5PM, he would have disappeared for a day and a half!

So what did OAOW’s pressing of storyteller do that was so bad for Town?
How did storyteller claiming at 2PM instead of 5PM make the game so much harder for Town and so much easier for scum that OAOW deserves to die?

Also, OAOW wasn’t the only person to think sooner is better than later. I thought the same thing, but I did not state so in the thread. Someone else explicitly said sooner is better than later in the thread, but I don’t remember who.

Also also, OAOW didn’t MAKE storyteller claim.
storyteller’s claim is his own action and only storyteller can control the claim. storyteller was free to ignore OAOW, but he chose not to.

I want to die instead because I’m hoping that if you see that I’m Town, then Town will get its act together and start thinking lynches through instead of hastily jumping on people for ridiculous reasons.

498

I did a search of Freudian Slit’s post history.
While I understand that some people are not tied to their computer all day and can’t be expected to post copious amounts of text, I’m a bit concerned that Freudian Slit has been posting alot to the SDMB, but not to this thread. So I have a hard time accepting that Freudian Slit’s lack of presence in Cecilvania is due to real life stuff. If she can post to other SDMB threads, she can post here.
To be fair, I haven’t searched all lurkers and clean-nosers in the same manner, but with at least some people voting for Freudian Slit, and her lack of posts clearly not motivated by lack of time…

unvote Blaster Master
vote Freudian Slit

499

[QUOTE=CatInASuit]

Finally, Freudian Slit,
Regardless of storyteller’s guilt/innocence, you are coming across, to me, as the scummiest thing currently. The wavering over turning Dracula in, followed by the suggestion that he has to have more powers than listed. Your vote for **OAOW ** was bandwagonish and the reasoning seemed to be more that OAOW initially wasn’t going to let storyteller try and prove his claim, even though by that point he had unvoted. But #375 where you say storyteller is not scummy, but then he might be scum and everyone will go after you because of it looks like covering all bases again for if/when storyteller is found to be scum. It’s also how you put yourself at the centre of it, even though there are plenty of people involved.

Sorry, something seems wrong here.

[/QUOTE]

This appears to be the most concise case against Freudian. Since I am not currently inclined to vote for OAOW, I am going to look back and do a post summary of Freudian and see if I am inclined to agree.

In the meantime, Hockey has been participating a bit more, whereas Hal Briston has only appeared with a drive-by vote and an excuse about the board eating his (missing) large and substantive post. Bleh. So, for the time being:
**
Unvote Hockey Monkey
Vote Hal Briston**

500

4 hours 41 minutes left in the Day.