Oh well, down to 2 and a bit days now. Very little from most people, but that’s not surprising given the Bank Holiday Weekend.
Time to start looking through posts and do some analysis.
You’ve been riding that horse for over a week. Haven’t you noticed it’s dead?
[Moderation]
CatInASuit has asked to be subbed out due to real life interference. Santo Rugger will be taking his place.
[/moderation]
I’m troubled by storyteller. His lack of participation Yesterday and the holiday reduced Day Today is making analysis of storyteller quite difficult. I feel we are left with situation analysis rather than any post analysis.
The Pros and Cons of lynching storyteller:
If this were a more standard game, like the original M1 or Simpletown, then leaving storyteller alive would be the optimal play. However, the existence of scum power-roles in the game setup makes storyteller a potential scum power-role. Allowing a scummy storyteller powerrole to live hurts the town, especially if storyteller is the scout.
Case One: We lynch storyteller and he is scum. Benefits - lynch scum; Costs - none
Case Two: We lynch storyteller and he is town (constable). Benefits - strong evidence of no scum roleblocker, confirmation of CatInASuit reading; Costs - lost power role
Case Three: No lynch of storyteller and he is scum. Benefits - none; Costs - potential scum Night Power use
Case Four: No lynch of storyteller and he is Town. Benefits - additional town Night Power use; Costs - none
In my view, allowing storyteller to live might give the town more readings, but it might also enable scum to find the town powerroles faster. There is no obvious advantage to either course of action. I feel that leaves us with assessing storyteller’s post history. And I want to emphasize that we need to look at storyteller dispassionately - no fears of lynching the constable or fears of letting scum live. Look at the post history and decide whether or not storyteller deserves to die.
Another way to look at the situation is to consider what is our belief that there is no scum roleblocker. I’m skeptical that there is no roleblocker. The possibilities as I see them:
No roleblocker - storyteller could be town or scum
Roleblocker - storyteller could be town and scum chose not to block him or storyteller is scum
My expectation was that there is a roleblocker in the game. My feeling is that roleblocking removes the powerful combination of a hidden doctor and claimed cop. However, since we don’t actually know that there is both a doctor and a cop, my feeling that there is a roleblocker is based on quite a few assumptions.
I wouldn’t say it’s dead. Day One attitudes are important throughout the game. I also find WF Tomba’s comments evasive and unhelpful.
My view is WF Tomba’s statement (response to me about what he thought of Fretful Porpentine: neutral in a mathematically bland and non-committal way) is a mark against him. However, taking WF Tomba’s post history as a whole, I’m not inclined to press for his lynch at this moment.
Players:
Koldanar
Hal Briston
Fretful Porpentine
Storyteller
Nanook of the North Shore
Pollux Oil
Blaster Master
Darth Sensitive
WF Tomba
ShadowFacts
[del]CatInASuit[/del] Santo Rugger
Freudian Slit
Hockey Monkey
DiggitCamara
sachertorte
OneAndOnlyWanderers - Townsperson (Lynched Day 1)
RoOsh - Townsperson (Killed Night 1)
Apologies all, Real life has intruded.
I’m sure **Santo Rugger ** can cause as much mayham as me. 
Sorry about not being able to post this weekend. It was a busy time. I was only able to get on long enough to read through things, not enough time to post as well.
I hate being that far off on people. Then again, considering my track record from last game, I’m terrible at finding scum. Sorry OAOW.
Sad to see you go Roosh. I bet the hamsters bribed the wolves to knock you off to protect them.
I’ll be back with a more in depth post a little later, once I get settled into work.
Santo Rugger? Obviously CIAS was scum then, since we all know Rugger is always scum.
You asked for my opinion and I gave it to you straight. Please explain how you find that to be “evasive”.
You stated that you are neutral on Fretful Porpentine in the most mathematically cold way possible. You didn’t address the two key issues of the Fretful Porpentine case: storyteller’s accusation of perfect information and my point of Fretful’s “no scout” theory. You essentially said nothing at all. Rather than address the issues, you evaded them. Not good for Town.
Oh, well, I guess I should have stated my neutrality with more passion, then.
I did address these “two issues”, which were actually the same issue. I said it didn’t move me one way or the other. That’s addressing it.
You know, it was only for politeness’s sake that I answered you at all. I probably shouldn’t have.
No. That would have been worse.
Look. I didn’t rake you over the coals when you first responded because it wasn’t a big deal. It’s not the be all end all referendum on WF Tomba. But! The notion that the issue is dead is absolutely wrong. Darth Sensitive is pressing you on the issue, and your saying that the issue is dead is, well, evasive.
It’s dead as far as I’m concerned because I’ve said all I have to say about it. Why Darth Sensitive is pressing me on it I don’t know. Maybe you should ask him. Or maybe you already know because he told you in the scum thread.
[QUOTE=Fretful Porpentine]
Case #1: storyteller is a Wolf, and is lying. Presumably, he chose to say that CiaS is a townie, rather than that he’d been blocked, in order to look useful and spread disinformation. He’s probably not lying about CiaS’s alignment, since there’s still a nonzero chance that he might end up being lynched and that would be a disaster for the wolves. But he may be (and probably is) lying about the Alchemist, since this is a point about which he can easily sow confusion without causing the Wolves any negative consequences.
[quote]
Bolding mine. I’m not sure what we can assume about CIAS(now Santo) if story comes up wolf. It certainly seems like a great way to sow some WIFOM for the town by naming someone town. Did he name a townie as such to gain cred? Or did he name a wolf town in order to protect them? Impossible to say short of death or reinvestigation by the real detective.
If story is telling the truth, then there is definately not an alchemist. The wolves would be morons to not block him last Night. It prevents an investigation, and most likely would have resulted in story being lynched toDay, both of which are very favorable outcome for the furry ones. Does this mean there’s definately a scout then? It seems very likely, though not guaranteed. Either there’s a scout, or there’s a lot more wolves than we expected(like 5, rather than 3-4), or there’s a more normal number of wolves(say 4) and no or next to no town power roles. I can’t see our illustrious mods making the flavor and rules text for the Scout, Alchemist and town roles and then not including at least some of them. Therefore, if story is telling the truth, I’d say it’s >90% likely there’s a scout.
Of course, this leads into wondering, if story is telling the truth, why did he survive the Night? Such thoughts are terrible for WIFOMing though, so I’m not sure what, if anything we can read into it. Maybe they were trying to avoid the almost certain doc block if they went after story. Maybe they felt like they could drive a bandwagon on him today, thereby getting us to do their dirty work for them. I’m leaning towards the dodge the doc option, but it’s impossible to say for certain at this point.
Dammit, forgot to close a quote the first time. Here is the entirety of the post with the tag closed.
Bolding mine. I’m not sure what we can assume about CIAS(now Santo) if story comes up wolf. It certainly seems like a great way to sow some WIFOM for the town by naming someone town. Did he name a townie as such to gain cred? Or did he name a wolf town in order to protect them? Impossible to say short of death or reinvestigation by the real detective.
If story is telling the truth, then there is definately not an alchemist. The wolves would be morons to not block him last Night. It prevents an investigation, and most likely would have resulted in story being lynched toDay, both of which are very favorable outcome for the furry ones. Does this mean there’s definately a scout then? It seems very likely, though not guaranteed. Either there’s a scout, or there’s a lot more wolves than we expected(like 5, rather than 3-4), or there’s a more normal number of wolves(say 4) and no or next to no town power roles. I can’t see our illustrious mods making the flavor and rules text for the Scout, Alchemist and town roles and then not including at least some of them. Therefore, if story is telling the truth, I’d say it’s >90% likely there’s a scout.
Of course, this leads into wondering, if story is telling the truth, why did he survive the Night? Such thoughts are terrible for WIFOMing though, so I’m not sure what, if anything we can read into it. Maybe they were trying to avoid the almost certain doc block if they went after story. Maybe they felt like they could drive a bandwagon on him today, thereby getting us to do their dirty work for them. I’m leaning towards the dodge the doc option, but it’s impossible to say for certain at this point.
(bolding mine)
You know, your response to this “pressure” is more telling to me than your original response that is getting you heat. I read your original response to the Fretful issue as along the lines of “didn’t ping me one way or the other.” I do not agree with Darth and sach that there was anything problematic about it. However, your surly attitude about them questioning you - and the OMGUS statement I bolded above - don’t have you coming off well, IMO.
The doc block possibility makes other considerations moot. Unless the Wolves have a good reason to think there’s no Physick, it would just be foolish for them to try to kill storyteller. If he is indeed the Constable, then the scum team’s efforts are now focused on finding/killing the doc.
But I have to agree that declaring a town result, true or false, is the best play for storyteller if he’s scum. It’s less likely to cause us to lynch someone, which is our only way of getting information.
I’d say let him live for now and look for scum elsewhere, but I’m worried about the possibility that he is the Scout. Here are our two options as I see them:
- Kill story today to gain information
- Let him live until we change our minds or lose a power role, whichever comes first
Regarding whether or not to lynch story today for information, I think we’re better off waiting. The more confirmed townies we can get, the better. If story is telling the truth, the wolves will have to kill him, or at least attempt to, sooner rather than later. He’s far too dangerous to them to be left alive. Once they do, we’ll have our confirmation, and will have at least a few confirmed townies, which is very strong going into the middle and end of the game.
If story is lying, then the question becomes whether or not he’s a power role. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that he is, and is in fact the Scout. (As an aside, for whatever reason my stupid fingers keep wanting to type Scount. I have no idea why.) He’ll have had 1 investigation. If we let him live, he’ll get one more. We started with 17 players. If we go with the standard 4 wolf set up, that leaves 13 town. 2 are dead, and we can assume story wasn’t stupid enough to investigate Roosh, the person they targeted for death. That leaves 1 investigation out of a pool of 11, and 1 investigation out of a pool or either 8 or 9, depending on whether we lynch town or wolf and assuming that he isn’t stupid enough to investigate the same person twice. If we assume the standard 4 power role set up, 1 doc, 1 detective, 2 masons, then he has at best a little under 50% chance of finding a power role. However, two of those being discovered by the scout don’t really hurt us much, in the masons. Really, the danger is in them finding the doctor or detective. But the odds of that happening are fairly low. However, he won’t be able to act on that investigation until the following Night. (At least, I think that’s my understanding of the rules. Someone correct me if I’m wrong.) So unless he found one of those roles last Night, then the soonest the wolves can act on it is Tomorrow Night. That gives us all of Today and Tomorrow to decide what to do with story before he’s a major threat. And that’s assuming he’s the scout.
If, instead of scout, he’s the alchemist, then there’s even less of a pressing need to kill him. He would only be a power role then if he knew who the town power role was. He could I suppose block randomly, but I don’t see what damage that would do to us without a tremendous amount of bad luck(the wolves randomly block the doctor, who just happens to be protecting their target. very low odds of this happening.)
Let’s look at the flipside. If we kill story, and he’s telling the truth, we have one confirmed townie, in CIAS(now Santo). We no longer have a detective, and have mislynched two Day in a row. If we leave him alive and he’s telling the truth, then we get additional investigations, either confirming more townies(very good), or finding and lynching scum(still good, just not as good). The doc will likely protect him, so he won’t die and will be able to share his results.
To summarize, I disagree with sach. I think the potential upside of letting story lives outweighs the potential downside. As to who to vote for instead? I have a few suspicisions, but I want to do a reread before I commit to anything. I’ll check back in after lunch with a vote and an argument for it.
I don’t completely disagree with Nanook, but I think he’s underestimating the danger of the scout. He seems to think that the delay between the scout investigating and the scum killing a powerrole mitigates the danger. It does, but not nearly to the extent Nanook implies. If the scout investigated a powerrole last night, scum are going to kill that powerrole Tonight regardless of whether or not we lynch the scout Today. (I’m sure the scum know who the scout investigated and set up a signal to transmit the investigation result sometime during the day). The only way to stop the danger is to kill the scout. In my view a living scout lets the scum find the detective/doctor twice as fast. Of course storyteller isn’t necessarily the scout and that’s where differing views on cost/reward are likely to arise.
Again, I don’t completely disagree with Nanook. He thinks letting story live has greater reward than the risks. That’s okay. My main point was to try a dissuade the Town from completely giving storyteller a pass based on his claim and fear of lynching the constable. I think the risks/rewards are fairly close; at least sufficiently close that storyteller should not be given a free pass. Everyone else will weigh the options differently, but ideally, we would be looking at storyteller’s post history. Unfortunately, he has been quiet both Today and Yesterday, which is frustrating.
However, if people elect to give storyteller a pass, then I would like to see the justification, just as Nanook has done (which is a good thing).