Day 2 Vote Count (as of Post 740)
3- sachertorte: Blaster Master, DiggitCamara, Freudian Slit
2- Hal Briston: Nanook, Koldanar
1- WF Tomba: Darth Sensitive
1- Blaster Master: sachertorte
1- DiggitCamara: ShadowFacts
1- Freudian Slit: Hockey Monkey
1- ShadowFacts: Hal Briston
1- Darth Sensitive: Pollux Oil
No Current Vote: Fretful Porpentine, storyteller, Santo Rugger, WF Tomba
That wasn’t a smudge. It was a direct accusation.
Vote Darth Sensitive
I am also suspicious of DiggitCamara and ShadowFacts.
I think that’s a bad strategy. A lot of the time there are two bandwagons, both on Town players. If you don’t think either bandwagon is credible, why muddy the waters by adding your vote to one of them?
Aww, go suck on a lemon, almighty post leader. Give me a full day to catch up before you start slingin’ mud at my “lack of participation”, at least. It’s a lot to absorb, hopping into the middle of a game. But, while we’re at it, I’ll point out that you haven’t really said all that much of substance (a little, granted) in that same time frame, so give me a break.
I would like to discuss something else, actually. Unfortunately (fortunately?), pretty much every thing I jotted down to post about when I caught up has already been addressed, so I’ve chosen to start running where I was dropped, instead of going back to tag up (FWIW, I agree with about 95% of what CatInA posted. The only major thing I I disagreed with was a case he started to build against somebody (don’t remember who), that I didn’t really see the basis for, so feel free to use his posts as if they were my own in future analysis). I’ve got a list of scum in my head, but I’d rather not post it at this time because I can’t substantially back it up, and they’d just appear to be baseless
I’m not trying damn hard to get you lynched; I’m trying damn hard to get people to discuss you. I can’t lynch you alone. If we discuss you and collectively decide you should be lynched then that is what will happen. I can’t lynch you by myself. First discussion, then Lynch. In that order. If the discussion leads to not lynching you then fine. But if the discussion leads to lynching you then that will be because we as a group agreed it was the right thing to do. Not discussing you at all leaves no trail should you eventually bite it.
But you weren’t around for all the discussion after your vote. What do you think of my commentary that it makes no sense for scum to press for a roleclaim that has already been promised? You explained your vote when you made it, but there was tons of commentary about the validity of those reasons. What I wanted was your comments on that reasoning. Better yet, your comments on that reasoning before lynching OAOW; we can’t have that, but no comment at all doesn’t help either.
storyteller, you yourself have mentioned may times in the past that scum don’t act overtly. What made you think OAOW would in such an overt way? Why do you think it was appropriate to blame OAOW for your roleclaim? He can’t make you claim, the claim was your choice. (Oh, and repeating yourself isn’t a bad thing. Saying that you’d just be repeating yourself is a way of avoiding the topic).
It’s clear that my way of thinking is very different from everyone else’s way of thinking. While I thought it would be good to get people to view both sides of every argument, I realize that’s just not going to happen.
Comments on Freudian Slit:
I think there is some confusion over an exchange between Freudian Slit and CatInASuit. My recollection is that CatInASuit stated the not everyone was wrong about OAOW, and meant that not everyone looked at OAOW and determined that he was scum (CatInASuit did not vote for OAOW). Then I think, Freudian Slit misinterpreted CatInASuit and thought he meant not everyone voting for OAOW was wrong about OAOW. Totally different things.
Comments on ShadowFacts and DiggitCamara:
Obviously I agree with ShadowFacts, but I haven’t been commenting as such. DiggitCamara is wrong about me. Both he and Freudian Slit are unwilling to even consider the possibility that I was right about OAOW because I figured it out on my own. I contend that the evidence was present for all to see and I explained this evidence many many times, but they reject this possibility outright. I can’t tell if they are scum trying to pile on me, or Town who genuinely feel that the only way they could have missed OAOW being Town and I could figure it out was due to extra information. To DiggitCamara’s benefit, he’s been suspicious of me for the same reason all the way back to Fretful Porpentine, so I’m inclined to think his suspicion is legitimate. Freudian Slit, I think, is riding DiggitCamara’s suspicion coattails.
Eventually the truth will be known, and hopefully in future games people will feel more free to state their case, defend people they think are Town, and not have to worry about irrational paranoia (at least worry less).
One last comment about defense:
Over the last Day there has been quite a bit of defense thrown around. I’d like to point out the hypocrisy of how I get called out simply because I’m terribly upfront and vocal about my views. Off the top of my head, I recall Freudian Slit and Blaster Master “defending” Hal Briston; and ShadowFacts “defending” me. Yet these defenses do not cause suspicion.
And a little part of sachertorte dies inside.
I won’t call it dead-proof of scummyness, but at best it was pretty shady…
Incidentally, we lynch by plurality, correct? (On preview, never mind – I looked it up and yes, we do. Top vote-getter swings, no majority needed)
That is a good point – I guess I was thinking scum were more likely to vote for FS since there’s safety in numbers, but you and Hockey Monkey were both early votes and I think sachertorte is too combative to be likely scum, so I’m not quite satisfied with the case against any of the FS voters. Besides, if I voted for you or HM it would be a one-off throwaway.
Hmm, so that adds DiggitCamara, Shadowfacts, and WF Tomba to the list, all of whom already have a vote against them. I guess I’ll take a look at their posts and see who seems like the likeliest candidate.
Here’s my view on** sach**:
We all know **sach **is a very strong, analytical player. He may have truely believed OaOW yesterday, but as I was reading through the thread, I thought story was using the same method (not that I necessarily like it) that he’s used the last two times he’s been Doctor (China and Batman). He’s basically said, “Hey, guys, I’ve got a town role, but it’s not a good time to claim exactly what it is right now. Let’s keep it under wraps for now, move on, and then come back to it later.” Perhaps it’s bad play on my part to metagame that he’d made effectively the same style of claim as he has in past town roles, but it’s the vibe I picked up.
On the flip side, OaOW called him on it, **story **got frustrated (which is also becoming his new MO :(), and was “forced” into claiming earlier than a lot of us would have liked. Many people saw this as having scummy motives on his part. ** Sach, **on the other hand, seemed to know **OaOW **was town, and even rubbed it in a bit when the rest of us found out. Now, like I said before, sach is a strong player, and it is of my opinion that he’s banking on that general sentiment to exploit an over the top defense in an attempt to gain town creed. Unfortunately (for him), he got caught up in it, took it a bit over the top, and made his defense more elaborate than somebody without perfect knowledge would have. At that point, he had to keep getting more extravagant to make it go from “perfect knowledge” to “unreasonable enough so that it was too obviously perfect knowledge to the point that it was just an overzealous townie”. At least, that’s my interpretation of what happened.
The part that pinged me/rubbed me the wrong way the most was his comment saying, “I’m just trying to get the Town to THINK!” This caught my attention for two reasons. First, and less damning, is the removal of himself from the town as a whole. Second, and more importantly, is the way it wreaked of, “GUYS, I’m trying to HELP you here!”
Give me a few minutes, I’m just getting warmed up here… my above post is a pretty good start, que no?
Fretful Porpentine
Reasons I think Fretful Porpentine is Town:
Reasons I think Fretful Porpentine is Scum:
Freudian Slit
Reasons I think Freudian Slit is Town:
Reasons I think Freudian Slit is Scum:
storyteller
Reasons I think storyteller is Town:
Reasons I think storyteller is Scum:
Blaster Master
Reasons I think Blaster Master is Town:
Reasons I think Blaster Master is Scum:
ShadowFacts
My ability to read ShadowFacts is compromised by the fact that regardless of alignment the two of us tend to think alike. Probably the biggest mistake of YSI was the night we killed ShadowFacts. We should have kept him around since he and I think so much alike.
I very much contend that the Town as a whole failed to think through the OAOW’s lynch. The idea that one piece of data that can be interpreted as having scum motivation as sufficient evidence with no further reasoning necessary needs to be stomped out. The data was there for all to see that the lynch case was based on spurious reasoning. Even now, knowing that OAOW is Town, people are unwilling to acknowledge that the reasoning was bogus. Instead they cling to the idea that I had perfect information. Well, guess what? Perfect information or no, the case against OAOW was still bogus and everyone voting for OAOW had the opportunity to see that. It is not as though OAOW’s case was solid and by some weird quirk he turned up town. Quite the opposite.
The idea that I defended OAOW to gain townie credibility is ludicrous. Does it look to you that I’ve gained townie credibility? Is it reasonable to think that scum would expect townie credibility for defending OAOW, especially after getting accusations based on Fretful Porpentine? Defending Town is a stupid way to gain credibility.
BTW, I don’t even want people to trust who I suspect to be scum based on OAOW. I want people to look at both sides of arguments. Don’t just fixate on one thing and conclude scum. Look at the whole. Why would scum do such a thing? Would town have any reason to do the same thing?
OK, let’s look at the bandwagon against Wanderers. My vote was the third (!), at #360. I’ve outlined my reasoning, but since sach has indicated he’d prefer a repeat engagement:
I felt he baited me into a roleclaim. I recognize that it is rare for scum to act so overtly, but I also recognize that it is extremely dangerous to make assumptions of any kind about “what scum will do” and operate on the basis of those assumptions. In the last few games, I’ve seen any number of overt moves by scum that I never would have expected. I also felt that, having baited me into revealing – which I explicitly wanted to avoid because I was (needlessly, as it turns out) worried about being blocked by an Alchemist – he then turned around and used my own reason for wanting to avoid a true claim as a reason to be suspicious of me. I further found his pre-emptive call for no counter-claim to be a bit much, simply because it was combined so neatly with the rest of his push against me; I suppose because I think it’s pretty unlikely that there are two Constables, and therefore that there was going to be no counterclaim, it felt like more of a scummy push for my lynching than anything else.
These were my reasons at the time of my vote.
Freudian followed on at #369. Her vote post was as follows:
Short on reasoning, and also a taste of trying to have things both ways.
sach begins his assertive defense of Wanderers around this time. More on that later.
Roosh follows on at #391. We already know him to be Town, so I’m not going to spend a lot of time dissecting his reasoning here.
I follow-up at #408, supporting my vote – essentially, Wanderers tried to develop further argument against me by leaving out one of my most important points regarding Dracula (that we don’t want to lynch him – and we fundamentally don’t, by the way).
Nanook votes at #424. His reasoning is basically the same as Roosh’s, and my own – both thought Wanderers’ initial press against me was overly aggressive.
Koldanar votes at #440. He adds new reasons to vote for OAOW – some votes by OAOW that seemed poorly justified at best. This vote seems a bit wonky to me, simply because Koldanar hadn’t mentioned these “pings” before… it looks like post hoc reasoning, like someone looking for a reason to join a bandwagon but wanting to avoid piggybacking on the explanations of others.
Hal at #447, votes and says his explanation was lost to the hamsters. Frankly, given Board performance of late, I have no trouble believing this.
Throughout, sach continues to defend OAOW. He does not offer an alternative candidate at first, cryptically suggesting that he has one, but “no one will bite.”
Finally, sach votes for Blaster Master, saying that he (sach) doesn’t like the lynch of OAOW and doesn’t believe BLAM “sucks that bad.”
Coupla folks – Pollux Oil then **Hockey Monkey **, say that the OAOW seems too easy, and vote for Freudian. CIAS and Wanderers follow shortly thereon, and unless CIAS/Rugger is Alpha Wolf, both are Town.
Darth Sensitive places the ninth vote on Wanderers. His justification is brief and more or less rehashes things that have already been said, but honestly by this stage of the game the lynch of Wanderers is basically a done deal. I can’t see this vote as anything but a null tell.
sach offers to die in place of Wanderers. Don’t get it. Didn’t get it at the time, still don’t get it. The thing is, it reflects such certainty that OAOW was town – even if the case against him was weak (I don’t think it was), surely from the perspective of a Townie sach the nonzero chance of OAOW being scum would make him a better lynch than sach himself, who in this hypothetical knows himself to be Town. Doesn’t make sense for a Wolf, either, though.
Finally, sach unvotes BLAM and climbs aboard the developing Freudian wagon – citing her lurking of all things.
And here I stop my analysis, because I am ready to vote.
Koldanar’s vote for Wanderers, as described above, definitely pinged me. But I’m voting for sach.
The thing is, sach, it’s not just that you defended Wanderers. That’s part of it, for sure. But you also did it while simultaneous offering very, very little in the way of alternative options. You slammed the rest of the Town for what you saw to be specious reasoning; you decried the Wanderers lynch as a BS lynch based on faulty reasoning.
Then you voted for Freudian Slit for lynch-the-lurker reasons. Is that the alternative reasoning you’d prefer we employed? A lurker lynch is as good as a random lynch, and whatever you thought of the arguments against OAOW, they were certainly better than random choice.
You didn’t just spend most of Day One defending Wanderers with a degree of certainty that is completely inexplicable; you did it while declining to engage in any other meaningful way – You spent pages and pages on your defense posts, but your votes were basically quickie posts unsupported by any real kind of reasoning. Oh, you did do your part to encourage suspicion of one player – me – but you made sure everyone knew that you “didn’t want to lynch me.” You’ve repeated that an awful lot, for someone who has spent most of two Days discussing me in ways that are clearly intended to draw suspicion my way.
Coupled with your disingenuous characterization of my voting record, this makes me more comfortable than ever with a
vote sachertorte
Christ - should be “disingenuous characterization of my posting record,” not voting record. I cannot type.
Slight nitpick with sachertorte’s analysis of me: I stated that I don’t think we should ever lynch storyteller – unless he gives us good reason to think he’s lying. Otherwise, I think what he’s said is basically fair.
My thoughts on WF Tomba, DiggitCamara, and ShadowFacts:
WFT seems to have taken some undeserved flak over his comment about the probability that I’m scum – as far as I’m concerned, there’s nothing wrong with being aggressively noncommital 
His argument that demanding that storyteller come up with a Wolf or die is definitely pro-town. On the other hand, his vote for DS seems REALLY OMGUS-ish (and his FoS on Koldamar and ShadowFacts on Day 1 seems similar). On the third hand, I’m not entirely convinced that OMGUS-ness is really a scum tell.
DC has been the quietest of the three players, and a lot of his posts have been about game mechanics, which is often a good way for scum to appear to say something without really saying something. OTOH, his vote for sach on the first day seemed well-grounded, and his point on Day 2 that Wolves won’t vote in clusters strikes me as pro-town (perhaps all the more so because he himself hadn’t voted in a cluster; I think Town players are more likely to stick their neck out and draw scrutiny on themselves).
SF is kind of an odd case. He says at the beginning of Day 1 that he’s going to vote for the lurkers, and proceeds to vote for HM and then Hal because they’ve been quiet. I’m thinking that this could actually be a very effective scum strategy – it makes the player look fair and consistent, while at the same time almost guaranteeing that they’ll be distanced from any bandwagons (since first-day bandwagons nearly always roll against someone who has posted a lot). Also, on Day 2, he criticizes BlaM for voting against sach even though sach’s defense of OAOW turned out to be correct – but since this makes sach look like he has perfect knowledge syndrome, that’s the entire point. In general, the fact that he expresses suspicion of everyone who expresses suspicion of sach looks odd, and perhaps a little perfect-knowledge-like itself.
Anyway, of the five people I’ve looked at, ShadowFacts is the one who looks most like potential scum to me.
Vote ShadowFacts
Jesus. OAOW was clearly Town! “the arguments against” OAOW actually all pointed to him being Town. That’s the whole fucking point!
blah blah blah, whatever. Just be sure to lynch Blaster Master and storyteller after I’m dead. I don’t think either of them can suck this bad.
[QUOTE=storyteller0910Koldanar votes at #440. He adds new reasons to vote for OAOW – some votes by OAOW that seemed poorly justified at best. This vote seems a bit wonky to me, simply because Koldanar hadn’t mentioned these “pings” before… it looks like post hoc reasoning, like someone looking for a reason to join a bandwagon but wanting to avoid piggybacking on the explanations of others.
[/QUOTE]
What happened here is I had a nice sheet in front of me at work, where I wrote down little issues I had with people. I had it both mentally noted and written down, just not posted to the boards. I tend to stay too quiet on day one to my, and the town’s, detriment. I’m still trying to get over this…in the interest of some disclosure, here’s my list as written, from last wednesday.
#203 : roosh is aggressive. (typical)
#220: OAOW switches vote fast…why?
#223: sach is also defending fretful here a bit…what does it mean?
#234: story votes fretful
#248: Nanook is defending Shadow.
#296 : OAOW switches, again!
#332: Pollux points out something suspicious about Tomba
#347: Blam’s defense of story doesn’t sit well with me.
I wrote these down, but didn’t get back to them today at all…and for that I really apologize. These are notes that strike me in the moment, that I go back to in later days, trying to squeeze motivation out of them, and find out what I can.
At least my concerns were addressed here
unvote Hal Briston
Now…I need to go over my other scum targets again.
Man that sucked. Royally. I’ve had root canals before, and they weren’t so bad, but this one? Terrible. I guess the location just magnified everything that makes root canals suck.
Nothing like waiting til the last minute huh? All this discussion, compressed in time. I hope we can avoid this Tomorrow and future Days, since a last minute flurry is a great way to have a bandwagon come out of no where and slam townies. It also can lead to power roles getting bussed before they have a chance to claim, which I don’t need to tell anyone is very bad.
I think I’ve made my thoughts on Hal clear at this point. I still feel he’s the scummiest out there, and have no problems with leaving my vote where it is.
If there does turn out to be a mass substitution and/or modkill, as NAF has been warning against, it’s going to wreak all sorts of havoc. I shudder to think what Tomorrow is going to be like if that happens. Those of you that are in the danger zone, please try not to let this happen.