Really guys? This is the Big Issue Of The Day? It was simply a precaution…don’t toss a vote out there and then not check the thread for a couple of days, simple as that. If you want to vote, then vote…just don’t be manipulated.
To those nagging at me for moving my vote yesterday : Had I not been poking at Blam as possible scum as well, incorrect or not? I didn’t want to force a tie here, so I changed before that became an issue. Both were on my suspect list, and I was fine with another going down, even though at that point Blam was my lesser candidate (why is why Hal was voted for in the first place).
Ugh, sorry guys but I was a lot busier today than I expected. I won’t be able to do rereads of both Koldanar and Rugger before I leave…I doubt I’ll be able to finish just one tonight as I’m exhausted. But I’ll check in early tomorrow before my flight leaves and maybe finish up a reread on one of them.
Lemme put some thoughts out there real quick first, though.
My initial thought is that clearly something’s wrong with my scumdar. I thought for sure that Blam was scum, but him turning up town makes me have to rethink my set-up. The people I was next suspicious of were Hal and Nanook, but to me it doesn’t make sense for both of them to be scum since they’ve been at each other’s throats since Day 2. It’s a possible scum gambit but I’m not sure the scum would risk it with such low numbers to begin with. Then again, it would get one major townie cred for the end game, so I can’t throw it out completely.
This thing about not putting votes out seems to be noise…and confusion. I mean it’s good to have discussion and all but I fail to see how it’s pro-town or anti-town in any sort of way. I think it’s just a null tell overall no matter what your opinion is of it: there’s no hammer and no countdown so you can save your vote or vote for everybody in a span of 20 minutes and it won’t really matter either way.
Okay I’m going to see if I can at least get a read through of the first Day or two before I get to bed.
CatinaSuit/Rugger reread:
Day One
#141: Fluff response to OAOW’s random vote.
#143: Surmises there’s 12 town, 4 wolf, 1 Dracula. Says he feels sorry for Drac.
#144: Fluff post.
#146: Says if the scum have a Scout, the game is balanced to take account of it and we shouldn’t worry about it. Says he doesn’t see why the Masons/Doctor should reveal anything unless they have to.
#148: Mentions he thinks OAOW passively suggested for power roles to give results immediately. Thinks power roles should play as they see fit.
#150: Post saying he’ll be absent for a while.
#219: Comments on surprise at Nanook’s early vote. Thinks ShadowFacts is suspicious for finding a reason not to vote Blam even though he’s the lurkiest. Votes ShadowFacts.
#221: Points out posts where Fretful is certain there isn’t a Scout role, wants to know why she’s so sure.
#228: Says expect the scum to do anything and everything.
#237: Notes scum are rarely lurkers and it’s usually town who spends time not posting much.
#242: Responds to sachertorte’s assertion that the Scout discussion started with OAOW and CatinaSuit.
#246: Responds to ShadowFacts’ response to him, says he still finds his reasoning for excluding Blam in his lurker voting suspicious.
#274: Says he doesn’t like ShadowFacts’ free pass given to Blam. Says most people are writing it off as too obvious for a scum to try and pull off. Unvotes ShadowFacts, saying “time to find someone else to pick on.”
#275: Says ShadowFacts’ play is not consistent with what he remembers from Conspiracy. Thinks Nanook’s vote on him is scummy, adds him to scum list with ShadowFacts and Fretful.
#276: Asks ShadowFacts what he counts as game-related and what he counts as fluff.
#277: Asks the question: if there’s a choice between wolf and Dracula, who do we lynch?
#295: Responds to Nanook, saying he doesn’t think his vote on ShadowFacts was a weak vote. Also notices storyteller’s slip.
#302: Says he sets the bar higher for game-related posts than ShadowFacts. Says he thinks random votes are a waste of time.
#314: Comments on board down time.
#323: Says he’s seriously considering voting for storyteller.
#339: Fluff post.
#352: Mentions he wants to take a look at post counts the first Days of games after the game to see if scum really do lurk right away.
#403: Says he thinks we might be looking at the idea of a veteran’s game wrong: that there’s one of each scum power role + Dracula, and that there probably won’t be any extra roles or abilities.
#404: Wants to know why OAOW dropped ShadowFacts from his suspicions #since OAOW voted for him after he did.
#407: Notes hockeymonkey and Hal have been quiet, asks what their opinions are of the Day’s events.
#410: Wants to know why lynching Dracula is a waste.
#419: Notes that Hal is lurking slightly more than Hockeymonkey, but says to ShadowFacts he still thinks the lurker vote was slightly misguided.
#435: Notes that scum know now that a good roleclaim can buy them time. Says that storyteller’s claim is excellent, but he thinks it’s likely a false claim. Also says if storyteller cannot find a scum for any reason, he should be lynched that Day.
#436: Says some scum have given up after a slip/getting caught.
#483: Says he thinks storyteller is scum and OAOW is town and lynching him is a mistake.
#486: Makes a scum list. Notes he thinks storyteller, Freudian Slit, and WF Tomba are scum. Says WF Tomba’s latest post looks like he’s trying to cover all bases. Says Freudian Slit is most scummy for wavering over Dracula and bandwagon vote on OAOW. Votes Freudian.
#496: Notes sachertorte making himself a martyr is unlikely to help and asks him to find scum instead.
#527: Points out discrepancy between Freudian Slit saying she was vanilla and mentioning she has a role claim.
#535: Points out vanilla role PM was posted at the beginning of the game.
#540: Doesn’t believe Freudian Slit, says she doesn’t come across as suspicious in all games.
#553: Mostly fluff post. Says “considering his luck he’ll be dead by on Morning.”
And that’s the end of Day One.
*Note: This was all CatinaSuit.
Phew…okay I’m tired guys, this is all I can do for now. Hopefully I can get the rest of Rugger done tomorrow before I leave.
Well, less than 24 hours remaining now, and I’ve got a bit of a quandry – Nanook and Rugger both currently have votes on me. The scum have no need whatsoever to split their votes, so the only way town gets another day is if the three townies all vote the same way. However, that can’t happen unless A) either Nanook or Rugger changes their vote, or B) Koldnar or Pollux votes for themselves.
I think we can write off “B” from happening. As for “A”, well, beats me if it’ll happen. It’s no secret that Koldnar is my #1 and Rugger is my #2. If things stay as they are, then I’d be forced to vote Rugger, simply because voting Koldnar would be handing a win to the scum.
Hell, when it all comes down to it, two of you are scum, two of you are town, and I really have no fricking clue which of you are which. Going to have to see how the voting comes together and play it from there.
I had no intention of allowing myself to be manipulated, no worries. It’s just the way you phrased it that caused it to be an issue at all.
I understand what you’re saying regarding the vote, but look at it from my perspective. For the first several Days, you were constanly in danger of being subbed/mod killed, and always avoided it with a flurry of posting near the end of the Day. Yesterday and Today you’ve certainly been more active, but when you look at it as a whole from an outside perspective, it’s worrisome. If you were a town power role I could understand it, wanting to stay out of trouble early and then swoop in at the end and really unleash the power of your role, but as far as I can tell this is an all vanilla set up. In that kind of game, it’s a good play for scum to make , but there’s no real upside for town doing so. You want me to move my vote? Convince me to do so. Right now I see you as the most likely to be a Wolf, but that doesn’t mean I can’t change my mind.
Better believe I do – if you’re town, then the game is resting on you doing so. The problem is you’re using the faulty logic that is enabling the scum to keep me on the hotseat for much of this game. I was usually the lowest counting poster, but was never in danger of not making the cutoff. Yes, I posted more towards the end of the Day…because it was later in the week when I’m not as busy at work – simple as that. I presented every suspicion that I had, and never held back a thing.
Going with “lynch the lurker” is fine, if the town has no other valid options. But going with “lynch the guy who at one point lurked for part of the day, but hasn’t recently”, when the game is on the line and there are targets who are a hell of a lot better…well, sorry, but it’s either lazy or scummy.
By the way…
Hope you show up today and get a vote in. If not, then unless the town unanimously picks wrong, it would most probably lead to a 2-2 tie with both town and scum on the line. The game continuing or not would come down to a coin flip. Boooo.
Day 7 vote count (as of Post 1348)
2 - Hal Briston - Nanook, Santo Rugger
No current vote: Koldanar, Hal Briston, Pollux Oil,
I’m happy with my vote.
Ummm, guys? We’re just over three hours away from town losing…anyone else care to weigh in here?
Nah, everyone should just stay quiet, it has worked so well for town all game.
Besides, my modkill finger is getting twitchy.
Oh yeah, not everyone has made the requisit number of posts toDay (surprise surprise) but that’s cool because I really would like to modkill someone before the game ends.
You’re the one that told everybody not to vote. 
Interesting…by “not everyone”, of course, you mean Pollux Oil – he’s one post shy of a modkill.
So if he doesn’t show up and vote in the next few hours, two things will happen. 1) I’ll assume Pollux is town. I can’t imagine scum not showing up when they’re so close to a win. Meaning 2) a townie will be modkilled before we even get to the coin toss.
Now, if a scum Pollux is modkilled, then woohoo…hell, go ahead and lynch me then – the game’ll come down to three-handed Mafia, and there won’t be any more noise about my “lurking” to sway anyone. However, if Pollux is scum, I can’t imagine he’d miss getting in his vote.
So, there is a real possibility of the coin toss being needed just to force the three-handed showdown…sheesh…
Ugh, traveling kept me away from a computer longer than expected, so no chance of rereads or anything like that. I’m here I’m here.
Let’s see here. I have no idea what to go on right now. I feel like one of Nanook/Hal has to be scum, but the other isn’t. My gut is just telling me that the scum wouldn’t take a chance with a constant back-and-forth fight with such low numbers.
So let’s do a quick bit of voting analysis like that.
Day 1: Me, Rugger voted for Freudian Slit
Koldanar, Nanook, Hal voted for OAOW
Day 2: Me, Koldanar voted for Darth Sensitive
Rugger voted for sachertorte
Nanook voted for Hal
Hal voted for ShadowFacts
Day 3: Me, Rugger, Koldanar voted for Freudian Slit
Nanook voted WF Tomba
Hal voted ShadowFacts
Day 4/5: Everybody voted for ShadowFacts/storyteller
Day 6: Me, Koldanar, Hal voted for Blam
Rugger, Nanook voted for Hal
Currently: Rugger, Nanook voting for Hal.
Big note: Rugger and Nanook did not vote together the first three Days but yesterDay and toDay, near the endgame, their votes have been put together.
Nanook voted with storyteller vs. OAOW.
Koldanar voted with storyteller vs. OAOW.
Rugger voted with storyteller vs. sachertorte.
Hal voted with storyteller vs. ShadowFacts.
I’m the only one who never voted with storyteller.
Aside from Day One, Koldanar and I have always voted for the same person, and if I remember correctly Koldanar expressed iffy feelings about the OAOW vote towards the end.
Koldanar/Nanook - No read one way or the other if true. Voted together against OAOW, but not much interaction otherwise.
Koldanar/Hal - Makes a little bit of sense. Koldanar came out swinging early, then retracted his vote on Hal. Might be waiting for me to put a vote on Rugger or Nanook. Voted together against OAOW.
Koldanar/Rugger - Doesn’t go one way or the other for me. Voted together on Day 3 on Freudian Slit. Koldanar could have switched from Blam to Hal last minute yesterDay to set-up Hal toDay.
Rugger/Nanook - Makes sense if they’re trying to put Hal away for sure toDay and take the win now.
Rugger/Hal - Doesn’t make much sense unless they’re trying to give one townie cred and go into three-handed. Rugger and Hal have never voted together.
Hal/Nanook - Doesn’t seem likely they’d go for each other for the majority of the game unless it was a planned long con.
With these pair ups, it seems to me that Hal is the least likely to be scum overall. Sigh. What to do, what to do.
I’m just…well basically lost at this point. Things that I thought were scummy weren’t, votes have been all over the place, and I have no clue what the hell to do.
Arright, eff it. I’m chaging up my suspicion list.
After taking a close reread of toDay, one thing sticks out: Koldnar and Pollux are as lost as I am, while Rugger and Nanook seem nice and confident. At this point, it seems to me that the only ones who should be confident are scum. So, that’s where I’m effectively ending my day, flip-flopping on Koldnar and Nanook.
Scum: Rugger and Nanook.
Town: The rest of us.
It really doesn’t matter to me which one goes, but if I’m right then Koldnar, Pollux and myself all must vote the same way. I’m basically obligated to follow along with whatever you two do, but having no great preference, I’m going to…
Vote Nanook
I’m not confident at all, I just don’t give a shit anymore.
Well, if you’re town, then you just didn’t-give-a-shit into a scum win.
It’s really difficult to go back to the voting record when we’ve only found one scum, and they were lynched in a way that it couldn’t have been weaseled out of. No real vote swaying can be proven at this point, we simply don’t have enough information. Any votes story had before he died present a WiFoM; did he vote for x because they’re town and he wanted to get them lynched, or did he vote for y because they’re scum and he wanted to gain town creed when they turned up dead? Who knows?