fubbles and Meeko, I do apologize for the “Meeko, don’t be stupid,” line. It was supposed to sound jokey/funny, but I see it looks mean. Sorry, Meeko!
And believe it or not, I use the term crackpot lovingly. Even when he apparently thinks I’m being arrogant for poking holes in his logic. Can you poke holes in something that isn’t there? 
From here: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15979726&postcount=874
Mahaloth, could you please answer my question about the info the SK got?
Suburban, can you address my concerns about your speculation regarding the barn message?
Meeko, can you answer my questions about your thoughts re: the barn message?
From here: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15979788&postcount=876
Choie, could you answer my question about your vote for Chucara?
On re-read, I’m a bit confused by your confusion. You thought the message had said Stan was town, and voted for him anyway?
I still don’t think lynching Stan is the right course of action. The lack of a matching win condition is odd, but I’ve seen weirder in legit role PMs. He’s a strong mafia player and if he’s town, we’ll regret losing him. I worry that we haven’t had a very productive day, and very little serious case-making has happened.
If I had my druthers, we’d lynch one of TexCat, Dizzymrslizzy, or Wombat. I’ve got a fairly solid scum lean on all of them, and their lynches would provide us a fair amount of information. If Stan is scum, his lynch will too, but if he’s third party or town, this day is more of a wash than I’d like.
The one upside to Stanislaus’ lynch is that he’s a strong mafia player, and if he’s scum, we’ll be much better off for it, probably more than an average scum lynch.
I’ve already got votes on Tex and Dizzy, so here’s my third lynch choice:
Vote Wombat
No, I’ve not been under the impression that Stan was Town since quite early in Day 1. The two part barn reveal did throw me though, because I thought that it was an indication that, if true, the investigator was able to somehow see through the nature of an Alpha/Godfather. But that would have only have been the case if the note had said “Stanislaus is Town, and not the Alpha”.
But because I didn’t realize that, and because I thought that Stan was indeed not Town, I had reconciled that information as maybe a Third Party Investigator was in the game with an ability to see through the nature of an Alpha/Godfather.
It wasn’t until Lightfoot pointed out that a Town Investigator getting a wolf read would be able to infer that the wolf was not the Alpha that I realized I had been conflating things. Suburban apparently had a similar epiphany earlier Today.
Voting chart of the first two days. I’ll do Day 3 after the dawn of Day 4, when we can color in some names.
Day 1
Askthepizzaguy vf Red Skeezix, 215
GuiriEnEspaña vf choie, RyJae, 220
Johnny Bravo vf Pleonast, 225
Astral Rejection vf USCDiver, LightFoot, 229
Mahaloth vf RyJae, 231
Enderw24 vf Red Skeezix, 233
Stanislaus vf Babale, 236
wombat99 vf Mahaloth, 238
DiggitCamara vf orthohedron, 244
Astral Rejection [del]unvote LightFoot[/del], 252
orthohedron vf wombat99, 284
USCDiver vf Johnny Bravo, 289
LightFoot vf Chucara, 300
Cometothedarkside…cookies vf RyJae, Stanislaus, wombat99, 301
choie vf Askthepizzaguy, 312
Chucara vf orthohedron, 327
Askthepizzaguy vf orthohedron, 328
choie vf GuiriEnEspaña, 332
TexCat vf DiggitCamara, Chucara, Askthepizzaguy, 334
Mahaloth [del]unvote RyJae[/del], vf Chucara, 337
Red Skeezix vf Ender24, 345
Silver Jan vf Chucara, Askthepizzaguy, 351
Stanislaus vf Cometothedarkside…Cookies, 352
fubbleskag vf USCDiver, Chucara, GuiriEnEspaña, 361
Babale vf Chucara, Askthepizzaguy, 367
Suburban Plankton vf Babale, 369
gnarlycharlie vf Babale, 373
Askthepizzaguy vf Johnny Bravo, 389
Johnny Bravo vf Askthepizzaguy, 392
Mahaloth vf Johnny Bravo, 407
Chucara vf Babale, 422
Babale [del]unvote Askthepizzaguy[/del], 426
Chucara [del]unvote Babale[/del], 427
orthohedron unvote Wombat99, vf Chucara, 434
Meeko vf Pleonast, Askthepizzaguy, 436
Dizzymrslizzy vf fubbleskag, 439
fubbleskag [del]unvote GuiriEnEspaña, USCDiver[/del], 445
Babale [del]unvote Chucara[/del], 453
RyJae vf Val Salva, 466
Meeko [del]unvote Pleonast, Askthepizzaguy[/del], vf Cometothedarkside…Cookies, 472
Meeko vf fubbleskag, 493
Askthepizzaguy vf RyJae, 505
RyJae vf Askthepizzaguy, 508
Astral Rejection vf Chucara, Askthepizzaguy, RyJae, 514
Astral Rejection unvote USCDiver, 515
orthohedron vf Askthepizzaguy, 524
Johnny Bravo [del]unvote Pleonast[/del], 537
USCDiver [del]unvote Johnny Bravo[/del], vf Askthepizzaguy, 544
Stanislaus vf RyJae, 545
Dizzymrslizzy vf Askthepizzaguy, 546
Suburban Plankton vf RyJae, 549
GuiriEnEspaña vf Silver Jan, TexCat, 553
Pleonast vf Askthepizzaguy, RyJae, 557
Chucara vf RyJae, 559
TexCat vf GuiriEnEspaña, 583
Suburban Plankton vf Chucara, 591
Pleonast vf USCDiver, 599
Astral Rejection [del]unvote RyJae[/del], 609
wombat99 vf Chucara, Bable, 612
Chucara vf Askthepizzaguy, 614
Stanislaus [del]unvote RyJae, Cometothedarkside…Cookies[/del], 616
Red Skeezix vf Babale, Chucara, 619
Astral Rejection [del]unvote Chucara[/del], 624
Pleonast [del]unvote USCDiver[/del], vf Chucara, 625
Suburban Plankton vf Pleonast, Askthepizzaguy, 629
Suburban Plankton [del]unvote Chucara[/del], 631
Suburban Plankton [del]unvote Pleonast[/del], 641
Lynch: Askthepizzaguy, Town Peasant Redshirt
Night Kill: Val Salva, Town Peasant Redshirt
Night Kill: Pleonast, Town Butcher (Vigilante)
Returned: Askthepizzaguy
Day 2
GuiriEnEspaña vf choie, Silver Jan, TexCat, 712
TexCat vf Chucara, 733
DiggitCamara vf choie, 758
DiggitCamara vf Suburban Plankton, 759
Silver Jan vf DiggitCamara, 761
Mahaloth vf DiggitCamara, 763
TexCat vf DiggitCamara, 764
Dizzymrslizzy vf DiggitCamara, 765
DiggitCamara [del]unvote choie[/del], 768
Stanislaus vf Babale, choie, 786
Johnny Bravo vf DiggitCamara, 787
Enderw24 vf choie, 788
Mahaloth [del]unvote DiggitCamara[/del], 794
choie vf choie, GuiriEnEspaña, 795
Mahaloth vf choie, 799
USCDiver vf choie, 800
TexCat [del]unvote DiggitCamara[/del], 801
DiggitCamara vf Chucara, 804
choie vf Chucara, 805
Chucara vf TexCat, 815
Cometothedarkside…Cookies vf Stanislaus, 816
Meeko vf choie, 817
Silver Jan [del]unvote DiggitCamara[/del], 818
Silver Jan vf GuiriEnEspaña, 822
LightFoot vf Chucara, 835
DiggitCamara vf fubbleskag, 836
Dizzymrslizzy [del]unvote DiggitCamara[/del], 838
Enderw24 vf fubbleskag, 846
wombat99 vf GuiriEnEspaña, Chucara, Babale, 851
USCDiver [del]unvote choie[/del], vf Chucara, 852
Mahaloth vf Chucara, 863
Red Skeezix vf LightFoot, Mahaloth, USCDiver, 864
Johnny Bravo [del]unvote DiggitCamara[/del], vf choie, Red Skeezix, 866
choie vf Johnny Bravo, Weedy 867
Red Skeezix [del]unvote USCDiver[/del], 868
Astral Rejection vf choie, 871
Astral Rejection vf TexCat, 874
Astral Rejection vf fubbleskag, 876
fubbleskag vf wombat99, 882
Astral Rejection [del]unvote choie[/del], 887
Suburban Plankton vf choie, 890
Astral Rejection vf Chucara, 891
Suburban Plankton vf TexCat, 894
choie [del]unvote Weedy[/del], 895
Johnny Bravo vf wombat99, 900
choie vf Enderw24, 905
choie [del]unvote choie[/del], 910
Dizzymrslizzy vf Chucara, 918
Lynch: Chucara, Town Peasant Redshirt
Nightkill: Silver Jan, Town Peasant Redshirt
Nightkill: Enderw24, Town Peasant Redshirt
Nightkill: RyJae, Town Peasant Redshirt
I gotcha. I just misunderstood the situation between you and the thing, then. No worries.
Sorry, I didn’t think it needed a response. I’m already voting you, you never explained your tie breaking vote, so this was just another poke. And you know what, taking about timing, USC replied just 2 minutes after you posted, explaining the issue with stanislaus’s wincon, I confirmed the issue with the poke 19 minutes later, then almost one hour later you posted to take offence to my “took your time” comment but for some reason only replied to USC’s post, the one about finding possible scum, nearly five hours later. Isn’t that strange? Didn’t you notice that I also explained what was different in Stanislaus’ wincon in the same post you took offence to?
I think the number of votes on Stanislaus versus the nearest candidate(s) should be reduced to give town more control over the situation.
Not saying he shouldn’t be in the lead but a massive wagon is not necessary.
Not sure I follow your logic, Pizza. How does bringing things closer to a tie give Town more control if most people, more than could possibly all be scum, are voting for Stan?
It’s about options.
If there should come a time during the round, and boy does it inevitably happen on the final day after everyone has already voted and nobody’s bothering to mind the tally, that someone should say something that clears Stanislaus, and now town cannot reverse its own decision due to the piled high vote count.
A lower count is easier to reverse for town.
It still needs to be at least two votes or so, such that no one scumbag can spare him. It should take at least two, and then we’ve got three altogether.
But a runaway wagon on any suspect reduces town’s immediate options; meaning any townie or even a small cadre of townies cannot possibly affect the outcome.
Options. Don’t remove your options. Don’t make it a tie, just don’t shoot thyself in thy feet.
12 votes on the lead candidate doesn’t make him any deader than 7.
Town can reverse a few vote lead, town has issues reversing a larger lead. There is no additional security benefit and there is no additional damage to the scums even if you’re correct, but a wild bandwagon does reduce town’s ability to control what happens.
Case in point, a stupid 25+ vote wagon on a townie in a Star Wars game I hosted.
No discussion, no chance of reversing it either. Nearest candidate had one vote. It was an investigation result that was misinterpreted. Townie died. What a waste of a round.
Ever since then I’ve been determined to teach town the lesson: The sweet spot is lead candidate plus three votes over second place candidate. More than that is ludicrous, less than that is dangerous.
I don’t know. Seems like it would pollute the vote record. Also, I’m already voting for two of the runners up, so all I could do would be to add a vote to choie which I’m not inclinded to do at this point, other than to try and comply with your suggestion.
I’m not sure what this means or whether having a pollution-free vote record is worth town intentionally handicapping itself by removing all options but the leader.
Town is stronger when it has options. If the leader is ahead by 10 there’s no incentive for any townie to even add anything to the discussion, no other votes have any serious pressure behind it, or meaning, and there’s nothing anyone can really do to stop such a wagon if it’s wrong. And again, if it’s correct, it doesn’t provide any additional benefit to have a dozen more votes than the next candidate.
Zero benefit versus keeping town active, alert, and capable of making decisions. To me it’s a no-brainer.
Adding votes is not how you respond to this problem. Some of the folks voting Stanislaus should remove those votes.
Should. I highly doubt principles and logic will persuade anyone. It will be yet another of my “this is how townies should coordinate better” ideas that gets shot to hell instead of, you know, considered..
Also seems like your idea would end up in a ‘snooze you lose’ situation where only the people who place the first votes until they hit your sweet spot would get to go on record with their suspicions and everyone else has to settle for deciding who gets sloppy seconds and saying things like “well, if I were lucky enough to get to vote, I’d be voting for so and so too”.
NETA that quote should be “well, if I were lucky enough to get to really vote, I’d be voting for so and so too.”
Being 15th on the wagon of a candidate already far in the lead has the same net effect on the game as not having voted that round anyway, with the following exception: Now you’ve made it more difficult for town to do anything else.
No benefit. Worse situation. It’s the move that needn’t be made, but it is made every game. Town needs to stop doing things that serves only to harm itself and does nothing to the scums.
It is interesting, just requires more trust and coordination than I think is usually present. I’d subscribe to your newsletter, though. 
Zombie Pizza Newsletter:
[spoiler]What’s interesting is I’m the same guy who argued that everyone should be on the record and voting and discussing. I’m a player who analyzes voting decisions as my primary source of scum finding.
That being said, the votes which interest me are the ones that affect the outcome versus do not affect the outcome versus look like they’re intentionally not affecting the outcome.
Example:
Opening of the round, everyone alive is near death with zero votes. You’re all tied for first place. As such, the low vote tally is a dangerous situation for the scums.
Early votes on candidates and reasons given indicate that someone really wants someone else dead primarily because it breaks the default tie and puts someone into contention.
Other votes put others into contention, and usually indicate “I want this person dead”.
Then we get votes which push someone further towards death, second and third and fourth votes.
Votes that make someone the clear leader.
Votes that make someone else a secondary contender.
Unvotes.
Then we get folks voting for people besides the leader, when the leader is far ahead. That tells me things.
Then we get folks not voting, or piling on a wagon that is already a foregone conclusion.
Some of those kinds of votes are necessarily bad for town.
You cannot help your team win without voting. Non-votes are inherently bad.
You aren’t actually helping anyone or anything with a massive wagon pile-on. It doesn’t change the outcome, doesn’t mean you’ve helped pressure the scum even if it is scum, and removes town’s options. You’re making it nigh impossible to lynch anyone else. There’s little to analyze between votes on the leader +3 over the nearest candidate and then onward. Those pile-on votes don’t say anything about you and hurt town.
It doesn’t say you’ve helped pressure the candidate when, you know, it made a difference.
It doesn’t decide the round, as breaking ties would.
It doesn’t put the candidate into a firm lead. The candidate is already in the firm lead. You’re just bandwagoning.
Now, of course, townies do that. But here:
Scumbag: 5 votes (Player A, Player B, Player C, Player D, Player E)
Unknown: 3 votes (Player F, Player G, Player H)
I can find meaning in the votes of all 8 players listed, due to the closeness of the vote and how each of them affected the outcome.
**
Scumbag: 15 votes (Player A, Player B, Player B, Player C, Player D, Player E…, etc)
Unknown: 3 votes (Player F, Player G, Player H)**
I know almost nothing about anyone but the people who voted when it mattered, back when we still had a ball game and a real discussion. The last 10 votes on that wagon didn’t do jack to affect any outcome, provided no additional risk or reward for anyone including the scums, and because their votes had no additional effect, I cannot read anything into them.
At that point, you can’t tell if scums are bussing or if townies are dogpiling. None of those votes matter. They don’t do anything and you can’t analyze them at all.
They’re useless.
Those are the kind of votes I can’t use in retrospect as an analytical player.
They don’t add to the discussion for discussion-based players. In fact due to the lessening of risk or pressure on literally all other candidates in play, it renders all further voting and discussion practically moot since there’s no teeth to any of it. It only matters if voting can affect the game adversely for the scums. Once you’ve past that point you’ve made each additional post and vote toothless, so it has no bite and you can’t frighten any wolves if you can’t bite them.
That’s right up there with lurking non-voters. At least with those they usually get pressured or killed off for being useless.
Well that kind of wagoning is active, but equally toothless and useless for town.
In no circumstance does it help town or adversely affect the scums. In fact it helps the scums by reducing all pressure on all of the rest of them. It does handicap town.
Anyway. When the vote is close, or early in the round, votes and discussion matter.
When the round is nearly over the tally is almost locked up because it’s hard to move lots of votes in any direction. That poses a danger of stagnation.
Then when votes are piled too high in any direction it removes all other options. It’s as if you’ve voted to end the round early.
Longer rounds are harder for scums to cope with. Hammering/ending rounds early with massive wagons and so forth, whenever I am a scum I am hoping and wishing for that. I never have to worry about my partners being in trouble and I don’t have to worry about town deducing anything. After that point town stops thinking entirely, stops checking in, stops considering vote moves, stops advancing cases, and so on.
It ends town’s ability to use its collective brain. As scum, I celebrate those moments.
So, as townie, I’m urging us not to be dumb unintentionally. If we’re going to be dumb, let’s be dumb for a damned good reason. I can live with a dumb lynch if it was done for the purposes of reducing the suspect list or generating vote history and points to analyze.
If the discussion stops, new suspects aren’t considered, the wagon piles up too early (one of the reasons I advised against wagoning until the very end in The ill-fated Plan) then town has no bark and no bite and the round is over early.
It’s like a football game. The game gets boring when you run up the score and people tune out. If the score is close, it’s interesting no matter who the leader is.
Yada yada yada, I talk too much. Too long, didn’t read. Etc.[/spoiler]
As for trust, I trust townies to be able to say, I think X should die but we don’t need the lead to be more than 3 votes more. Unvote.
Simple simple.
NETA:
with a re-vote if the leader starts being in contention again, if they want.
“I think X should die and he’s now in danger of that not happening. My vote can now affect the outcome again, re-vote player X.”
Pizza, stanislaus has just 5 votes more than the second place candidate. I agree that a 15 vote lead would take a serious amount of coordination to undo, 5 votes over 3-4 hours is reasonable. If someone has information that would clear him, they need to speak up before dusk allowing sufficient time to digest the information and react accordingly.
ToDay’s vote record is already of questionable value. If stanislaus is scum and a cop posted the message, scum woke up to see one of their own had been outed. I can see some scum throwing down a vote quickly, knowing the message is true and stanislaus is guilty so wanting to get on the train early, acting compulsively. Other scum would take a more cautious approach, questioning the message, the messenger, possibly flip-flopping over whether to vote or not, but basically suspicious while keeping other options open. And finally some scum will simply not drink the wine and ignore the message while looking elsewhere. The problem is, these are also townie reactions…