Oh, many a Coen film I ha’e seen. But that’s not the point. snf and Biotop both post a lot whether they are Town or Scum. It’s not a telling point.
Are those the post counts with the pre-D1 posts subtracted out?
Since I have nothing better to do:
snoe: 1 (snfaulkner)
Prof. Pepperwinkle: 2 (Knowed Out, Johnny Bravo)
snfaulkner: 1 (Stranger on a Train)
Biotop: 1 (snoe)
Knowed Out: 1 (Sunny Daze)
Stranger on a Train: 1 (Mahaloth)
Mahaloth: 1 (Prof. Pepperwinkle)
Good day, everyone! How much weight does post count really have, would you say? Wouldn’t quality over quantity be the most important thing? Sadly I’m lacking a bit in both areas thus far.
At this point I’m really just trying to shaking off the rust and checking out the Mafia Wiki for any type of insight.
Is Day 1 generally just a crapshoot?
Did Pleonast did an IRL reason for low vote count?
Prof P I wondered when we’d see some numbers. 
Hi,Neighbor generally, yes, crapshoot, unless something unusual happens.
Unless we hear from Pleonast, I will change my vote to him. Lynch the lurker is as good as reason as any at the moment.
NETA: That should be “low post count” on the first line, not “low vote count”.
Pleonast isn’t in the game.
Stranger
I don’t think it’s controversial to say that decisions early on Day 1 tend towards crapshootery. (Right?) The more information that’s out there — discussion, but also voting activity — the better we’ll do at making decisions.
I got some pushback for bringing up chance, but I’m just being Bayesian as I understand it — beginning with prior assumptions, then adjusting. We have some absolutely firm priors: 2 Mafia, 8 town, 10 players. We might get the right person more or less than 1/5 of the time, depending on how people play, but I haven’t seen anything that leads me to believe that it’ll be more than a little bit less.
We still have a ways to go on day 1, though.
Players (correct me if I’m wrong)
It matters in case of a tie vote, so people were joking about bumping up their post counts at the beginning.
More imprtantly for us as players, staying low and quiet could be a good scum tactic. If no one remembers you, they won’t vote for you. Except that there’s also a “Lynch the lurker” norm, and of course it’s pretty easy to counteract this rule if you are scum, and also some people may stay quiet for good reasons.
Yeah, it could matter, in other words.
I stayed home sick today. But when I feel a bit better I’ll talk about my butter/beer zone theory on post counts.
Can I sidebar and say: The real-world me feels really bad about cracking this joke, Bravo. I know it’s a game, yadda yadda, but it was unkind, especially since it was one of the first attempts I’ve seen at analyzing more than one player’s actions at once.
Man, I’d forgotten how messed up this game can be. You can’t make a sincere apology and know it’ll be taken as sincere, not performative That is part of its design and appeal, of course. But however you take it, Bravo — sorry for calling your detective work shitty. 
Has Mahaloth played a lot of games here? Is the silence atypical?
EDIT: I’ll take a “trust but verify” approach to any answers I get. Just don’t have time to do a lot of searching right now. But I think Mahaloth is being too quiet for their own good.
Mahaloth and I have played a lot of games together over on Giraffe. He’s typically quiet, but not this quiet.
Nope. I posted them as they showed up in the Who’s Posted column. I figured that’s what the Mod is using to keep track of posts for the day, but I can see where having the early posts removed would be helpful. Maybe I’ll be able to get to that.
Heh, no worries whatsoever. I thought it was clever, but I accept your apology in the spirit it was given.
As scum desperately trying to cover his tracks, having realized how badly he’s flailing.
<3
what? and I"M a goody-goody? 
Oh, it’s controversial to say it’s a crapshoot. I think it got me lynched over on giraffe one time. I am a firm believer that Day 1 is almost always no better than chance. We celebrate when we catch scum, but it’s mainly just luck.
Yeah, I guess. Honestly, I’m just really busy. I don’t’ have any big response, though.
My experience with Mahaloth is the more I hear him say that the game cannot be figured out, the more likely it is that he is Scum.
Vote Mahaloth for meta reasons.