Mafia: Mutiny on the SS Incorrigible

The Game Room
601

Glowacks last post absolutely reeks to me. Brigging unconfirmed town? I see a real big scum motivation in that which is that the scum can maneuver to get townies brigged thus lowering the number of people they need to sway to their side in order to mislynch.

** Vote Glowacks **

Normal Phase voted for fluiddruid both days and that coupled with her breezing in at the last moment with a bunch of posts explaining why she just had to vote for maha when I think I and everyone else would have understood a simple self-preservation vote makes me rather want to see her swing today.

Vote Fluiddruid

602

Also, hello? Less then 48 hours until the end of the day. Let’s get some voting going on.

603

I, too, was waiting on Peeker, but

Vote glowacks

Vote fluiddruid (sorry, I trusted you earlier in the game, but I’m not voting for Fubble, Inner, NAF, or peeker…that leaves less and less to choose from from everyone else)

**Vote Crackrat

Vote Stanislaus**

604

Grouping the remaining players:

fluiddruid
TexCat
Red Skeezix
glowacks
Crackrat
Stanislaus
NAF1138
peekercpa

Inner Stickler - Head of Engineering
fubbleskag

Idle Thoughts - Chief of Security (Investigated Loyal by Confirmed Loyal Mahaloth)

If we park Idle in the box marked “Town or Ring Leader” temporarily, then as a group we’re looking for either 3 or 4 scum in 8 players. This is in some way encouraging. If you put in four votes, you would be very unlucky not to hit scum.

Here are the vote records. I’ve put them in chronological order and coloured appropriately.

Drain Bead (9) <= Inner Stickler, Red Skeezix, fubbleskag, Crackrat, TexCat, NAF1138, fluiddruid, Idle Thoughts, Natlaw.
Hal Briston (9) <= Red Skeezix, Inner Stickler, TexCat, peekercpa, Mahaloth, glowacks, Crackrat, Normal Phase, Idle Thoughts.
Mahaloth (6) <= fluiddruid, Crackrat, Stanislaus, peekercpa, Natlaw, glowacks.
Idle Thoughts (6) <= peekercpa, TexCat, Natlaw, Stanislaus, fubbleskag, Crackrat.
peekercpa (5) <= Idle Thoughts, Mahaloth, fluiddruid, NAF1138, fubbleskag.
fubbleskag (5) <= Stanislaus, peekercpa, NAF1138, Normal Phase, glowacks.
fluiddruid (5) <= Red Skeezix, Natlaw, NAF1138, Mahaloth, Normal Phase.
Natlaw (2) <= Idle Thoughts, fluiddruid.
Stanislaus (2) <= Red Skeezix, TexCat.
NAF1138 (2) <= glowacks, fubbleskag.
glowacks (1) <= Mahaloth.
Crackrat (1) <= Inner Stickler.
Normal Phase (1) <= Inner Stickler.
Red Skeezix (1) <= Normal Phase.
TexCat (1) <= Stanislaus.
Mahaloth (9) <= Normal Phase, peekercpa, Crackrat, glowacks, Stanislaus, Inner Stickler, TexCat, fluiddruid, Idle Thoughts.
Hal Briston (8) <= TexCat, peekercpa, Crackrat, Red Skeezix, Mahaloth, Inner Stickler, fluiddruid, Idle Thoughts.
fluiddruid (7) <= Normal Phase, peekercpa, Red Skeezix, Stanislaus, Inner Stickler, TexCat, Crackrat.
Crackrat (3) <= glowacks, Stanislaus, fluiddruid.
TexCat (3) <= glowacks, Stanislaus, TexCat.
NAF1138 (3) <= Normal Phase, Red Skeezix, peekercpa,.
glowacks (3) <= Red Skeezix, Mahaloth, Idle Thoughts.
peekercpa (2) <= fluiddruid, Mahaloth.
Stanislaus (2) <= glowacks, Mahaloth.
Normal Phase (2) <=Crackrat, Normal Phase.
fubbleskag (1) <= Idle Thoughts.
Red Skeezix (1) <= Inner Stickler.

I’ll post analysis separately - feel free to spot your own patterns.

605

OK, looking at Day One: Hal, Drain and Maha were Town, so we shouldn’t expect Scum to discriminate between them. Looking only at the unconfirmed pool, we have the following:

TexCat, Crackrat, Red Skeezix voted for both Drain and Hal.
fluid, NAF, peeker and glowacks voted for only one of the leaders.
Stanislaus voted for none of them.

Day Two (Interestingly although the final count shows Hal and Mahaloth as the vote leaders, it was neck and neck between Maha, Hal and fluid until the very last votes, so this should be looked at as a three way race):

peeker, Crackrat and TexCat vote for all three.
glowacks, fluid and Idle voted for Mahaloth but not fluid.
Red Skeezix voted for fluid but not Mahaloth.
Because there’s such a big overlap between the voters for Hal, Mahaloth and fluid, I really don’t get the sense that Scum were maneouvering to avoid voting for fluid. My suspicions are falling on the people who keep crowding into the top of the vote charts so

vote Red Skeezix
vote Crackrat
vote TexCat

I don’t like to vote NAF, I’m leaning town on fluid now, so of peeker and glowacks from the remainder I’ll:

vote peeker

because I’m getting more of a town vibe of glowacks posting than I am off peeker - but this last vote is less confident than the others.

606

Oh yes, Idle: reasons? Or is this just stirring?

607

vote peekercpa: My opinions of his posts for my case yesterday haven’t changed and he’s yet to really respond to any of it.

Thanks for the clarification on release from the Brig; I had presumed otherwise. At this point I’d need some considerable motivation to release him, however. I can chalk up his recent absence to real-life stuff but I can’t do so for his post history.

Planning another thread review for today, hopefully I can get it down with enough chance to discuss it. I really don’t have any strong cases thus far besides peeker, though my gut is for Crackrat at this point (mostly for a combination of lurking and very restrained posts - feels like intentionally hanging back to me). I won’t place a vote yet based on that criteria, but Crackrat’s who I’ll be looking at a bit harder today.

608

It’s mostly what you said: Given the pool at the moment, it’s going to be hard NOT to hit scum at this point. And, in my post, when I eliminate all those I don’t feel comfortable with voting for, it only leaves about 5-6 people.
So of those 5-6, a scummy 4 should be easy to find. It’s almost at the “process of elimination” point.

609

In retrospect, this was a poorly timed game for me - I’m on vacation in Savannah and haven’t anywhere near as much internet time as I thought I would.

In no particular order, and based mostly on voting history/pattern:

Vote peeker
Vote Crackrat
Vote TexCat
Vote Red Skeezix

610

Day Three Vote Count

All Votes by Voting Player
fluiddruid => peekercpa (607).
TexCat => no votes.
Idle Thoughts => glowacks (603), fluiddruid (603), Crackrat (603), Stanislaus (603).
Inner Stickler => glowacks (601), fluiddruid (601).
Red Skeezix => no votes.
glowacks => no votes.
fubbleskag => peekercpa (609), Crackrat (609), TexCat (609), Red Skeezix (609).
Crackrat => no votes.
Stanislaus => Crackrat (589), Red Skeezix (605), TexCat (605), peekercpa (605).
NAF1138 => no votes.
peekercpa => no votes.

Net Votes
Crackrat (3) <= Idle Thoughts, fubbleskag, Stanislaus.
peekercpa (2) <= fubbleskag, Stanislaus.
TexCat (2) <= fubbleskag, Stanislaus.
Red Skeezix (2) <= fubbleskag, Stanislaus.
glowacks (1) <= Idle Thoughts.
fluiddruid (1) <= Idle Thoughts.
Stanislaus (1) <= Idle Thoughts.

With 10 players eligible to vote, 5 votes are needed to space. With these votes, no one will be spaced.

611

So here’s a list of people that are reasonable for me to vote for:

fluiddruid
TexCat
Red Skeezix
Crackrat
Stanislaus
peeker

In order of confidence:

I’ve already stated that I feel peeker is town, and while his absence is grating on me, I can’t get myself to vote for him because he’s not done anything scummy in my eyes.

Crackrat was on my radar yesterday, and continues to seem only to be interested in pointing out the rules. So he’s here, just choosing to not participate actively in the discussion.

vote Crackrat

TexCat’s continued obsession with the engineer position and basically no discussion on anything else makes me quite nervous. While the points are decent, there are better things to talk about if one’s time is limited than one officer position that could be used to out scum.

vote TexCat

Stanislaus was also a previous vote, and he’s given an OK analysis, but it greatly concerns me that he’s only looking at the unconfirmed pool, and not comparing it at all to the confirmed/mostly-confirmed pool to see if there actually are differences. Compare the votes of the unconfirmed to the mostly-confirmed in the manner he suggests. IS voted for all the top candidates. fubbleskag didn’t vote at all on Day 2, and voted for one of the two leaders Day 1; not voting when there’s a vote minimum to lynch is a very poor play, and not voting because you don’t need to vote looks like an easy way out for scum. Idle Thoughts voted for 4 of the top 5 candidates. Thus, trying to compare the two leads to an absolute null tell. It gets a little better looking at the dead, but among them only Mahaloth and Natlaw have more “town-looking” vote patterns, while Drain Bead and Hal have no vote patterns to analyze and Normal Phase’s votes include 4/5 leaders considered if you count the desire to switch to Hal if it meant him getting lynched (which it would have). Thus, we have just 2 confirmed town to provide evidence that town status will mean less votes for leaders, and 3 or 4 confirmed or mostly confirmed town that shows the opposite. Especially when you consider that the latter 3 are still alive, this suggests that the vote pattern data is meaningless is trying to determine who out of the remaining unconfirmed are scum.

Since Stanislaus has not been voting for many of the leaders, I suggest that he is offering this data in part to hint at how town-like he’s been, when his data doesn’t show much of anything concrete. I don’t fault his votes too much, as everyone unconfirmed has 4 votes among 6 reasonable choices, but the reasoning behind it seems to scream “look at how town I am guys!” That he gives fluid a pass for having a somewhat close call on a lynch is also rather discomforting.

**
vote Stanislaus**

Normal Phase immediately shot down this argument with the fact that if you don’t agree to brig someone, we will absolutely definitely lynch you and not even think about it. NP asked for some sort of additional explanation about why we’d be so concerned about access to the brig when we’d just found a scum. Then right after declaring fluid to absolutely be scum, NP died and fluid just mentioned that they didn’t agree on much, but did not address the points made. Everyone focused on peeker and the potential engineering results, and these points were not returned to.

Just because the person making the arguments dies doesn’t mean that the arguments shouldn’t be addressed. They were even casually waved off. If it wasn’t for the sudden focus on peeker, which fluid participated in, they may have been returned to. And now I’m returning to it, and ask for a rebuttal of NP’s last post. The convenient avoiding of the topic plus the focus on someone I think is town gets my vote.

vote fluiddruid

I probably would also vote for Red Skeezix if I had to make another vote for a low level meaningful participation, but these 4 worry me a bit more while peeker worries me not at all. Continuing discussion of my previous topic to follow at some point.

612

Howdy folks,

Returning to the thread with the hope of placing the rest of my votes shortly but I thought I’d address this.

I haven’t returned to this subject for two reasons:

1 - The point is entirely moot because Hal is dead and thus discussion isn’t necessary or relevant. Ultimately we are playing to find scum and I didn’t feel that served the purpose. If you are looking for a reason to justify a vote for me, there are far better reasons to do so than a strategy disagreement. Plus, people had accused me for ‘defending’ Hal, presumable that we were both scum. That didn’t turn out to be true so I didn’t see the point of bringing back the fruit of that accusation to cloud the current issues.

2 - I felt that Random Phase was just interpreting everything I said in the worst way and was beating up a strawman version of my point. I was arguing that as someone who barely escaped yesterday and fully expects to be lynched today that, assuming I’m scum (which was the presumable assumption) that I had no motivation to use my at-that-time-potential captainly powers to help town. He responded saying well we’d just make you or we’d lynch you, which I didn’t feel made a lot of sense in my case, since frankly I’m lucky to be alive at all and when Mahaloth turned up town I figured I’d be dead one way or the other.

In other words, the whole idea of getting access to the brig through a Hal lynch (not night kill, which I was in favor of) was only going to be beneficial in the relative long term – if Hal had been lynched today (or, if Hal were lynched, the following day), and then I was lynched the following day. Presuming I’m scum, I have no enticement to use my captain powers because, as I’ve repeatedly said, I expect to die of a lynch very soon. He didn’t seem to get (or acknowledge) that last part and then said my argument made no sense. Which, of course, ignoring that expectation (which I still feel is quite reasonable to assume, and definitely was then) makes my argument make no sense, of course.

It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to be lynching people based on getting access to powers, particularly when that may or may not happen. In this stage of the game we need to be hunting scum and we have too little information and time to be spending it trying to jostle around officers with the hope of ‘maybe’ brigging someone. I’m not against brigging and will support it if asked – I’d prefer to make this the object of consensus – but it’s not so powerful an ability that we should waste a lynch on possibly getting it at this stage. We need a scum kill and we need one very, very soon.

For the record I expected a bunch of votes for me right out of the gate at daybreak. That I didn’t get them makes me wonder a little, but I would presume that I’ll get lynched unless I’m up against someone who is also Town. In which case, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some votes move, since I doubt most people will consider me credible until I’m dead, and I don’t know of anyone else who’s ‘marked’ that way.

613

I just went over NP’s points very precisely to see exactly where they came from, and most of them seem to potentially be confirmation bias. There’s one thing that I’m not real sure about though:

I suppose NP could have been overemphasizing the utility of lynching a scum, but you seem to be drastically underemphasizing it. Should we not consider it a good thing to lynch scum just because we’ve come close to lynching that person before? That you were almost lynched yesterDay may mean a higher probability of being lynched later, but it doesn’t mean that lynching you if you’re scum stops being a good play. You focus on the fact that you as Captain is meaningless if you’re scum, but if you confirm yourself as scum we’d be elated to lynch you since we’ve already been wrong 2 (or 3) times. Lynching a scum is good enough that we won’t care that we couldn’t use the brig.

I also found something interesting:

This is a really strange thing to say regardless of your alignment, as it is never in a player’s best interest for themselves to be lynched unless significant information is gained from it. The only way this statement could be in your best interest at face value is if you were Town and knew for certain (such as through an investigation) that Mahaloth was scum. Since you weren’t absolutely certain, the statement is against your best interest, and thus I have to look at the rhetorical intent behind it. To me, it seems to say “look at what I’m willing to do for the town”. This is certainly a viable way of playing either town or scum, as the latter gains significant town cred for offering themselves as a sacrifice. In such a WIFOM situation, isn’t the best thing to just play it straightforwardly? You said to lynch you if you were wrong, and you were wrong. Should we make it any more complex than that?

614

With regard to my brig suggestion:

After thinking about it, I noticed something that might be what Inner Stickler is displeased about with respect to my suggestion: fluid would be making the decision about who to brig, and the security chief couldn’t decide to brig someone else if we think fluid made a poor decision. I admit I didn’t think over the actual logistics of that with regard to who is trusted, given that I trusted fluid up until I went back over Normal Phase’s arguments. We would need to have the decision be based on the voting at some point in order to compel fluid to make a specific choice. I had originally assumed the captain wouldn’t order a blameless unconfirmed into the brig, as a scum doing so would probably be exposed. And with Idle as Security Chief, the scum can’t unilaterally decide who will be brigged.

I stand by my thought that we need to have someone unconfirmed in the brig when the lynch happens, so that we don’t automatically lose if we mislynch assuming NAF is no longer going to participate. Since we can’t all be active right before Night falls it’s not a perfect plan to brig the person with the 2nd most votes, but I definitely see it improving our chances overall. If you want to leave peeker in there, that’s better than nothing.

615

At this point I’m planning on investigating peeker. I will have to submit the request tonight since I won’t be around during the day tomorrow. So if you can see any serious flaws in my assumptions, please let me know.

I would like it if Inner was to recieve the result of this. My reasoning is in an earlier post I made.

I don’t like the peeker votes, since he can be either confirmed or condemned based on the fact that he’s a commissar. Something that the peeker voters are dismissing out of hand.

You’re voting for peeker and you’re voting me because I voted the same person two days in a row, and other people happened to think she’s vote worthy? Well, that’s a contrived reason if I’ve ever heard one.
vote Stanislaus

the peeker vote plus all the reasons I voted for you yesterday:
vote fluiddruid

Having a non participant make it to 3 handed is something i’m not comfortable with. NAF needs to be brigged, lynched or confirmed. And since I think peeker’s the better investigation target today, and I feel that fluid is likely scum and if NAF is also scum, then I don’t think she’s going to willingly brig him.
NAF
This is a hold over from yesterday, your long Idle post feels smudgy as heck to me.
Glowacks
In order from strongest to weakest: fluid, stanislaus, glowacks, NAF

616

NETA: (in case the word vote is required)

vote NAF
vote glowacks

617

Day Three Vote Count

All Votes by Voting Player
fluiddruid => peekercpa (607).
TexCat => no votes.
Idle Thoughts => glowacks (603), fluiddruid (603), Crackrat (603), Stanislaus (603).
Inner Stickler => glowacks (601), fluiddruid (601).
Red Skeezix => Stanislaus (615), fluiddruid (615), NAF1138 (615), glowacks (615).
glowacks => Crackrat (611), TexCat (611), Stanislaus (611), fluiddruid (611).
fubbleskag => peekercpa (609), Crackrat (609), TexCat (609), Red Skeezix (609).
Crackrat => no votes.
Stanislaus => Crackrat (589), Red Skeezix (605), TexCat (605), peekercpa (605).
NAF1138 => no votes.
peekercpa => no votes.

Net Votes
Crackrat (4) <= Idle Thoughts, glowacks, fubbleskag, Stanislaus.
fluiddruid (3) <= Idle Thoughts, Red Skeezix, glowacks.
Stanislaus (3) <= Idle Thoughts, Red Skeezix, glowacks.
TexCat (3) <= glowacks, fubbleskag, Stanislaus.
glowacks (2) <= Idle Thoughts, Red Skeezix.
peekercpa (2) <= fubbleskag, Stanislaus.
Red Skeezix (2) <= fubbleskag, Stanislaus.
NAF1138 (1) <= Red Skeezix.

With 10 players eligible to vote, 5 votes are needed to space. With these votes, no one will be spaced.

618

Scum WIN when the number of unbrigged scum is greater than unbrigged town! Brigging unconfirmed town makes no sense. If the person we brig is town, all we’ve done is decreased the number of people scum need to eliminate so that they can win. Brigging only makes sense if the brigged person is likely scum!

619

Okay, well i’m off till after the day is over.
examine peekercpa

620

Ugh.
Vote Crackrat, Texcat

I’m not excited about this but I guess it’s better than nothing.