To turn that around, do you think that at least one of the officers is a Mutineer traitor?
And that’s why I say “asserted;” you’ve only got our word for it. The choice is whether the Doc should test me or Chronos (aiming for 3 confirmed Loyal) or somebody else (aiming for 4 asserted Loyal).
Has anybody seen Inner Stickler yet?
Inner Stickler: Last Activity: Yesterday 11:59 PM (EDT)
So e’s had a chance to see this thread.
One possibility for the kill is that the Scum actually targeted Ichini for the kill (a logical choice, since they knew that she was about to be investigated as Loyal), but that Diggit’s power swapped the two of them, thereby accounting for both Ichini’s demotion and Diggit’s death. Another possibility is that they chose their target randomly, so as to minimize the chance of being observed by the Engineer. Yet another possibility is that they deliberately chose a non-obvious target to screw with our heads and make people think things like “the higher officers are Scum”. It’s dangerous to try to draw any inferences from the Scum’s night-kill choice, because it’s an information channel that they have control over, and you can’t trust a Scum for anything, not even to lie.
Meanwhile: While Hal is correct that a mason claim is not absolute proof of innocence, and that everyone should still consider the possibility of a Scummy false-claim, it does at least make the claimed masons look a lot more likely to be Town. All three of the Scuba voters showed up after I claimed, and none of them have unvoted him yet, which I find suspicious. At the very least, if you’re that convinced that he’s Scum despite the Mason claim, you should have added a vote for me, too, since I’m exactly as scummy as he is. Therefore:
Vote ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
Vote ColdPhoenix
Vote Hal Briston
Finally, unless anyone gives me a compelling reason otherwise, I intend to put in an order toDay to promote Ichini Sanshigo, since I’m certain she’s Loyal, and I want Loyal folks up in the high officer ranks. This will possibly result in her holding both the Doctor and Engineer jobs in the same cycle, but with Pleo’s rule clarification, this should no longer be a problem.
More to the point, ColdPhoenix and Cookies have posted after I claimed. Neither of them have addressed my claim.
Vote ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
Vote ColdPhoenix
I don’t have as big an issue with Hal at the moment. Chronos has a good reason to vote for Hal, but my situation is a little less than Chronos’s. I’d like to see Hal reply to my claim as well as Chronos’s.
Day Two Current Vote Count
8 players outside the Brig => 5 votes to lynch. No one is lynched with the current votes.
ColdPhoenix (4): Scuba_Ben [70-211+224], ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies [95], Inner Stickler [158], Chronos [223].
Scuba_Ben (3): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-89][/del], [del]Darth Sensitive [79-174][/del], ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies [137], ColdPhoenix [156], Hal Briston [175].
Hal Briston (2): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-211][/del], ColdPhoenix [156], Chronos [223].
Darth Sensitive (2): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-211][/del], Chronos [93], Ichini Sanshigo [168].
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (2): Scuba_Ben [70-211+224], [del]ColdPhoenix [87-116][/del], Chronos [223].
Inner Stickler (1): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-211][/del], ColdPhoenix [156].
Chronos (0): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-94][/del], [del]ColdPhoenix [87-100][/del].
Ichini Sanshigo (0): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-148][/del].
Arrest warrants:
Chronos by ColdPhoenix [169].
On further reflection, since the original reason for my vote on Darth was his vote for Scuba, which he’s since retracted at a critical time, and since I now have three other votes out, I think I should also for now
Unvote Darth
I’ve made a statement with respect to the Mason claims. It was a statement of paranoid hesitation, but was a statement. I haven’t put a vote down or made much further conjecture yet because while we have confirmable information, that is all we have, plus a missing Engineer with results that I’d really like to see.
Getting railroaded to the top of the lynch list with two votes before all of the available cards are evenon the table is just making me more paranoid.
Forgot votes were carrying over, so strike the “top of the lynch list” comment, which would only have been true of votes weren’t carrying over.
Unvote Scuba
Which is all I’m willing to do at this point.
And in reply, Unvote ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
Quoth Cookies:
OK, I’ll buy that.
Unvote Cookies
I know I’ve got two posts in a row, here, but sheesh, that was over twelve hours ago, a sixth of a Day. Post, people, post! I’d especially like to hear from Inner Stickler, with the engineering report, and Ichini Sanshigo, so we can be sure we’ll have a Doctor examination toDay.
Meanwhile: It might be infamous by now, but I’ve got my computer program up and running for this game now. Yes, I know that it gave useless results last game, but that’s because I incorrectly assumed four Scum instead of three, a fault which I have corrected this time around: I’m not assuming anything more here about the numbers than that we have at least one and no more than three Scum (four Scum is still technically possible, but in that case we’re screwed no matter what anyone does). The other assumption is that a greater proportion of the votes cast by Town are for Scum than the end-of-Day votes cast by Scum are, an assumption which, if anything, has been too conservative for the other games I’ve used it in. Basically, my program looks at all possible arrangements of Town and Scum, and sees how many remain which satisfy the assumptions.
The current code, if anyone wants to double-check it:[spoiler]
[noparse]#include <stdio.h>
#define n_players 10 /* Number of players under analysis */
#define max_scum 3 /* Maximum expected number of Scum */
#define min_scum 1 /* Minimum expected number of Scum */
main()
{
int players[n_players]; /* Stores the alignment of each player. 0 = Town, 1 = Scum */
unsigned int players_binary;
unsigned int players_binary_shifting;
char names[n_players][20] = {"ColdPhoenix", "Normal Phase", "Ichini Sanshigo", "Inner Stickler", "Chronos", "ComeToDarkCookies", "DiggitCamara", "Hal Briston", "Darth Sensitive", "Scuba_Ben"};
int n_scum;
int buses; /* Number of times Scum voted for Scum */
int attacks; /* Number of times Town voted for Scum */
int i;
int score[n_players];
int total_scenarios = 0;
int town_votes;
int scum_votes;
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) score* = 0; /* Initialize everyone's score */
for(players_binary=0; players_binary < 1024; players_binary++) {
players_binary_shifting = players_binary;
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
players* = players_binary_shifting & 1; /* Populate the players[] array according to the value of players_binary */
players_binary_shifting = players_binary_shifting >> 1;
}
n_scum = 0;
buses = 0;
attacks = 0;
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
if(players* == 1) n_scum++; /* Count the number of Scum */
}
/* Count number of votes cast by Town */
town_votes = 0;
if(!players[0]) town_votes += 6; // ColdPhoenix cast 6
if(!players[1]) town_votes += 4; // Normal cast 4
if(!players[2]) town_votes += 1; // Ichini cast 1
if(!players[3]) town_votes += 2; // Stickler cast 2
if(!players[4]) town_votes += 3; // Chronos cast 2
if(!players[5]) town_votes += 2; // Cookies cast 2
if(!players[6]) town_votes += 1; // Diggit cast 1
if(!players[7]) town_votes += 1; // Hal cast 1
if(!players[8]) town_votes += 2; // Darth cast 2
if(!players[9]) town_votes += 10; // Scuba cast 10
/* Count number of votes cast by Scum */
scum_votes = 0;
if(players[0]) scum_votes += 4; // ColdPhoenix cast 4
if(players[1]) scum_votes += 2; // Normal cast 2
if(players[2]) scum_votes += 1; // Ichini cast 1
if(players[3]) scum_votes += 2; // Stickler cast 2
if(players[4]) scum_votes += 2; // Chronos cast 2
if(players[5]) scum_votes += 2; // Cookies cast 2
if(players[6]) scum_votes += 1; // Diggit cast 1
if(players[7]) scum_votes += 1; // Hal cast 1
if(players[8]) scum_votes += 1; // Darth cast 1
if(players[9]) scum_votes += 7; // Scuba cast 7
/* Count number of buses-- Only counting final votes */
if(players[9] && players[0]) buses++; // Scuba voted Phoenix
if(players[5] && players[0]) buses++; // Cookies voted Phoenix
if(players[1] && players[0]) buses++; // Normal voted Phoenix
if(players[3] && players[0]) buses++; // Stickler voted Phoenix
if(players[9] && players[1]) buses++; // Scuba voted Normal
if(players[6] && players[1]) buses++; // Diggit voted Normal
if(players[4] && players[1]) buses++; // Chronos voted Normal
if(players[0] && players[1]) buses++; // Phoenix voted Normal
if(players[3] && players[1]) buses++; // Stickler voted Normal
if(players[8] && players[1]) buses++; // Darth voted Normal
if(players[9] && players[3]) buses++; // Scuba voted Stickler
if(players[0] && players[3]) buses++; // Phoenix voted Stickler
if(players[9] && players[5]) buses++; // Scuba voted Cookies
if(players[9] && players[6]) buses++; // Scuba voted Diggit
if(players[9] && players[7]) buses++; // Scuba voted Hal
if(players[0] && players[7]) buses++; // Phoenix voted Hal
if(players[9] && players[8]) buses++; // Scuba voted Darth
if(players[4] && players[8]) buses++; // Chronos voted Darth
if(players[2] && players[8]) buses++; // Ichini voted Darth
/* Count number of attacks-- End of day */
if(!players[9] && players[0]) attacks++; // Scuba voted Phoenix
if(!players[5] && players[0]) attacks++; // Cookies voted Phoenix
if(!players[1] && players[0]) attacks++; // Normal voted Phoenix
if(!players[3] && players[0]) attacks++; // Stickler voted Phoenix
if(!players[9] && players[1]) attacks++; // Scuba voted Normal
if(!players[6] && players[1]) attacks++; // Diggit voted Normal
if(!players[4] && players[1]) attacks++; // Chronos voted Normal
if(!players[0] && players[1]) attacks++; // Phoenix voted Normal
if(!players[3] && players[1]) attacks++; // Stickler voted Normal
if(!players[8] && players[1]) attacks++; // Darth voted Normal
if(!players[9] && players[3]) attacks++; // Scuba voted Stickler
if(!players[0] && players[3]) attacks++; // Phoenix voted Stickler
if(!players[9] && players[5]) attacks++; // Scuba voted Cookies
if(!players[9] && players[6]) attacks++; // Scuba voted Diggit
if(!players[9] && players[7]) attacks++; // Scuba voted Hal
if(!players[0] && players[7]) attacks++; // Phoenix voted Hal
if(!players[9] && players[8]) attacks++; // Scuba voted Darth
if(!players[4] && players[8]) attacks++; // Chronos voted Darth
if(!players[2] && players[8]) attacks++; // Ichini voted Darth
/* Count number of buses-- Withdrawn votes */
/*
*/
/* Count number of attacks-- Withdrawn votes */
if(!players[9] && players[2]) attacks++; // Scuba voted Ichini
if(!players[1] && players[3]) attacks++; // Normal voted Stickler
if(!players[9] && players[4]) attacks++; // Scuba voted Chronos
if(!players[0] && players[4]) attacks++; // Phoenix voted Chronos
if(!players[0] && players[5]) attacks++; // Phoenix voted Cookies
if(!players[1] && players[7]) attacks++; // Normal voted Hal
if(!players[9] && players[9]) attacks++; // Scuba voted Scuba
if(!players[8] && players[9]) attacks++; // Darth voted Scuba
if((min_scum<=n_scum) && (n_scum<=max_scum)) /* Throw out cases with wrong number of Scum */
if((attacks)*scum_votes > (buses)*town_votes) /* Throw out cases with Scum not voting Scummily */
/* Add other assumptions (delete or add any considered appropriate) */
if(!players[4]) // Assume Chronos innocent
if(!players[1]) // Normal came up Town
if(!players[6]) // Diggit came up Town
if(players[4]==players[9]) // Chronos and Scuba declared masons
if((players[4])||(!players[2])) // Chronos found Ichini Town
{
total_scenarios++;
/* Output all scenarios */
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
/* if(players* == 0) printf("%s ",names*); */
if(players* == 1) {
printf("%s |",names*);
score*++;
}
}
printf("
");
}
}
/* Output scores */
fprintf(stderr,"Total number of possibilities: %d
",total_scenarios);
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) fprintf(stderr,"%s %d
",names*,score*);
return(0);
}[/noparse]
[/spoiler]
And the results (number of scenarios for which each player comes up Scum):
Assuming I’m Town (as I know to be true):
Total number of possibilities: 20
ColdPhoenix 6
Normal Phase 0
Ichini Sanshigo 0
Inner Stickler 8
Chronos 0
ComeToDarkCookies 8
DiggitCamara 0
Hal Briston 9
Darth Sensitive 11
Scuba_Ben 0
Without assuming I’m Town (since most of you can’t be sure about me):
Total number of possibilities: 26
ColdPhoenix 7
Normal Phase 0
Ichini Sanshigo 1
Inner Stickler 9
Chronos 6
ComeToDarkCookies 9
DiggitCamara 0
Hal Briston 10
Darth Sensitive 11
Scuba_Ben 6
Darth Sensitive’s numbers really stand out, here: From my point of view, he’s Scum in over half of all possible scenarios. It gets even more extreme if we assume at least two Scum (as I think likely), in which case he shows up as Scum in 10 of the 15 possible scenarios.
To sum up, the voting record, on the whole, makes it look very likely that Darth is Scum. Therefore, I will
Vote Darth Sensitive
Another point about these results, incidentally: It looks to me that our Doctor, if she ever shows up, would get more information for Town by examining Hal, Stickler, or Cookies, than by examining myself or Scuba.
I don’t know that I buy that (spreading the Doctor’s investigation in new direction), or that we can afford to buy that at this point, regardless of what the Engineer has to say. I understand the desire to try and find as many daisy chain confirmations as possible, but a daisy chain without at least one solid anchor might very well break if you just tug on it a bit.
Entertaining the assumption that Chronos and Scuba are Scum (which I think at this point is as healthy a thing to keep in mind as the assumption that they’re Town) keeping the Doctor away from them is exactly what they would want to do.
Going back to no assumptions, we’ll need either one of them to die and show up Town to be able to trust the other, or a Doctor who found either one to be Town to die and show up Town. Ichini confirming one of them as town with no one confirmed by death gets us close, but falls short of complete trust. Trust within reason perhaps, yes, but not complete trust. Ichini confirming someone other than Chronos and Scuba as either Town or Scum gets us the least complete trust picture, at least with respect to what to think of Chronos and Scuba, though it may provide a scum to lynch.
It seems risky. Throw in Ichini’s alignment as another variable and it gets exponentially riskier.
Yeah, I think it’s likely that one of the officers is a traitor.
I think it’s as clear as it can be now that you’re both on the same side. By the end of the day I’ll be either voting or not voting for both of you. I haven’t unvoted or voted yet as I’m unsure what I’m going to do. I’d really like the engineers report as a starter.
Agreed.
There is another option to Cookies’s plan. If Ichini remains unaccounted for, demote em and let Hal investigate someone.
Given Chronos’s analysis, my preference order for an independent analysis subject would be Cookies, then Hal, then Stickler.
Darth Sensitive had a vote at Dust only on Normal Phase, and during the course of the Day had also voted to space me. That’s a suspicious voting pattern. I’ll wait for Sensitive to show up and discuss this given the current information before I vote to space em.
Well, there’s a simply reason why I didn’t unvote him – I forgot about the votes carrying over (damn non-standard rulesets :)).
And while I’m going to be watching the claimed Masons with a close eye, it’d be a very risky play for scum to make. So while I wouldn’t have voted for him this day without new reason, let me now…
Unvote Scuba_Ben
Day Two Current Vote Count
8 players outside the Brig => 5 votes to lynch. No one is lynched with the current votes.
ColdPhoenix (4): Scuba_Ben [70-211+224], ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies [95], Inner Stickler [158], Chronos [223].
Hal Briston (2): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-211][/del], ColdPhoenix [156], Chronos [223].
Darth Sensitive (2): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-211][/del], Chronos [93-226+232], Ichini Sanshigo [168].
Inner Stickler (1): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-211][/del], ColdPhoenix [156].
Scuba_Ben (1): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-89][/del], [del]Darth Sensitive [79-174][/del], [del]ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies [137-229][/del], ColdPhoenix [156], [del]Hal Briston [175-236][/del].
Chronos (0): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-94][/del], [del]ColdPhoenix [87-100][/del].
Ichini Sanshigo (0): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-148][/del].
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (0): [del]Scuba_Ben [70-211+224-230][/del], [del]ColdPhoenix [87-116][/del], [del]Chronos [223-231][/del].
Arrest warrants:
Chronos by ColdPhoenix [169].
Can’t post now; will have time l8er today. Leaning towards investigating Chronos.
And could someone explain how putting votes on Scuba and Cold Phoenix yesterday being passed through some maths makes me likely to be scum?
Cookies, I think that’s because I’m claiming Loyal mason.
I’m curious about Chronos’s program’s output without trusting our Mate claims. I don’t see Darth Sensitive as sticking out that much. But I would like to hear from em.
Ichini, next time you stop by, even if it’s just to say “no time,” please tell us who you monitored and what the result was.
I don’t think we can wait on Ichini’s report. I do know that I won’t be online tonight or tomorrow.
Since Hal is also online ATM, what else can we discuss?