Mafia Reunion - Day Three

[Sunny_Daze]

Would a third party do this (known or unknown to us at this time) or is this most likely a “used all 7 powers” and blew up thing?

[raventhief]

Powers will always resolve at the Dusk or Dawn of the Day or Night, respectively, on which they are used; no powers will ever resolve in the middle of a Day or Night. (from the rules and regs)
So - not a modkill, and not the results of powers?

[bufftabby]

@raventhief

Powers will always resolve at the Dusk or Dawn of the Day or Night, respectively, on which they are used; no powers will ever resolve in the middle of a Day or Night. (from the rules and regs)
So - not a modkill, and not the results of powers?

Not a modkill and not the result of powers… I wonder if there are other objects in the game than switches, as the mods clarified that switches were certainly not powers. And all switches were said to work the same IIRC.

[Cygnus42]

Is it still close enough to Dawn to count? It’s 8 hours later…

[snfaulkner]

@paulwhoisaghost

I feel like your batswitch theory unnecessarily involves Toejam. I’m pretty sure that if* scum are holding the batswitch they would press it anyway. Why take a chance at him shooting one of them at random if it costs them nothing to push a button?

*It is possible a third party holds it, but I think it more likely scum have it.

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Why unecessarily? Batman has shown that he/she prefers lynch contenders. If said lynch contenders were town, or scum of a different flavor as the switch holder, they would have let Toejam die. Or leave them to shoot a 3rd party. Or to pump round after round into the vastly superiorly sized town pool.

[Thing_Fish]

Here is the analysis of the brewha wagon I promised (other than the case on Drain Bead.:()

Chronos of blessed memory pointed out brewha’s lie at post 536. At that time, the voting was very spread out; Pleonast led with only three votes, and six others were tied with two. Then, the pile-on began.

crys75 claimed shortly thereafter and attracted voters; at one point, she actually led brewha 8-7. Then, seven people piled onto brewha in pretty short order:raventhief, paulwhoisaghost, Khameleon, Lakai, Hooker Chemical, Meeko, and Toejam.

Here’s the Mod votecount at post 866, about 16 1/2 hours before EoD:

1 – brewha (17 votes) – Chronos (538), Biotop (543), Boozahol Squid (556), Cometothe…Cookies (575), sachertorte (576), bufftabby (622), Drain Bead (638), raventhief (646), paulwhoisaghost (702), Khameleon (716), Lakai (720), HookerChemical (722), Meeko (726), ToeJam (730), crys(743), Johnnyb(767), Profpepper(794)

2- Crys75 (10 votes) – Sunny Daze (568), Hockey Monkey (584), DiggitCamara (588), AngeloftheNorth (595), Texcat (639), Captain Klutz (640), snfaulkner (641); jsgodess(795), Hawkeyeop(803), Zeriel(860)

Pleonast (2 votes) – Lightfoot (288), Thing Fish (297)

PLAYERS WITH ONE VOTE:
ToeJam (Idle Thoughts – 32); Hockey Monkey (Hoopy Frood – 665); Texcat (Plumpudding – 68); Thing Fish (Pleonast -121); Chronos (Nanook – 151); sachertorte(brewha - 806); snfaulkner(1)(koldanar -819)
Just after that, this dialogue begins: (the very first quoted post is actually from paulwhoisaghost around 699)

@paulwhoisaghost

Bolding mine.

I’m leaning toward a theory where Crys is telling the truth and Brewha is a lying scum who doesn’t actually have the switch she claims and was hoping for a town counterclaim. That way they take out the townie… and maybe Brewha is in hot water, but if they aren’t actually holding that switch, scum would have gained sole control of the Batswitch.

**** Unvote DiggitCamara ****
I have even more problems with DiggitCamara toDay… and will compile those when I can get off my phone and on a computer… but for now, the Crys/Brewha race is a lot more pressing.

****Vote Brewha [/vote]

Of the two, I’d much rather lynch a liar who had a very scummy motivation to lie than a self proclaimed 3rd party that may or may not be communicating in code.

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jsgoddess nicely explains why this makes no sense:

@jsgoddess

This post was quoted a couple of times and I didn’t think about it hard enough the first time.

Wait. Why would Town counterclaim? There are two switches. If scum is holding one of them, only one Townie has a switch and would have no reason to counterclaim someone else claiming to have a switch. The only thing that makes sense for a counterclaim is if two people currently have Batman switches other than brewha, but if that were true, what would brewha be gaining by claiming and how would the other people know there was more than one of them? They’d only know that if they were on the same scum team, which wouldn’t be brewha’s team, because it wouldn’t make sense for brewha to claim in order to out the other switch holder if both were on his scum team.

I don’t think your theory makes sense.

@paulwhoisaghost

I bolded the part where we disagree.

By the logic of that statement, a townie who holds a switch would be under the impression scum hold the other switch. If someone then claims to have that switch, wouldn’t they conclude that claimant is scum?
Only one townie has a switch, but he would have no reason to counter a claim of town with the same switch?

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This makes no sense at all. A hypothetical Townie holding the other Batman switch would somehow know that the other switch was held by scum, and know to counterclaim:confused:

I explore the question further (snipped):

@Thing_Fish

I think Paul’s theory about brewha’s scum motivation fails not only for the reason mentioned above --that the other switch holder, if Town, would have had no reason to counterclaim – but also because I think if scum were going to try that, they would have tried to out the switcher of a role more dangerous to scum. Paul points out that the Vig shooting wildly would have a 1/4 chance of hitting scum, but from the point of view of either scum team, it’s only 1/8. That’s a 7/8 chance of the Vig kill helping their wincon; an investigator is much more dangerous.

Then,** Biotop** quotes my post and begins the eleventh-hour evacuation from the** brewha** and crys wagons and onto ToeJam. I agree with everything he said here, and judging from the vote shift it was a widespread sentiment.

@Biotop

I am having buyer’s remorse for my **brewha **vote, but changing it puts crys75 ** as the next option, and I don’t like that either. Between the two I’d rather have liar brewha be lynched. Yet I am worried that if **brewha **is telling the truth about the Batman switch, then some other player (very possibly not Town) with the opposing Batman switch will going forward control Batman and the vig kill. **

The whole LUTHA thing does not need to be resolved right now. Many of the questions surrounding **Crys ** and her claim can probably be blamed on meds. And I really doubt the LUTHA thing is a Scum ploy, despite the apparent hint of “leave us the hell alone” in the game color. So why bother with her?

brewha’s switch claim as some sort of Scum team gambit is a possibility. But that seems unlikely the more I think about it. A single player screwing up makes so much more sense.

It feels like it is almost too late to do anything now. We can’t even get a number of our players to vote for anyone at all. Grr. And I won’t be around at EOD Sunday due to work. More grr.

Oh well, let’s give it a shot anyway.

[**[COLOR=“black”]B][Color=red]**unvote brewha ****

****Vote Toejam **[/COLOR]

Did anyone buy his “Oh golly I was almost lynched what a surprise” post? I didn’t.

I have bolded the part which, IMO, is the major reason people decided lynching** brewha** was a bad idea.

It is my theory that scum realized this earlier than we did, and embraced the** brewha** lynch wagon. I’m sure many of the 17** brewha** voters in the vote count above were Town, but I’m betting scum are overrepresented there, and I imagine I will be voting within that group Today. I am especially suspicious of those who hung back at first and then jumped on** brewha** when the** crys** wagon looked like a serious threat: raventhief, paulwhoisaghost, Khameleon, Lakai, Hooker Chemical, Meeko, and Toejam.

paul aggressively confronts Biotop about his vote switch:

@paulwhoisaghost

I have a problem with this. You think it’s more likely a vanilla townie made a mistake than a scum did? As a player aren’t you just as likely to make a mistake no matter what your role?

You concede it’s probably to late to change anything, but cast a one off vote and mention you won’t be back. If you think it’s too late why wouldn’t you want you vote to remain on Brewha where the record would show you played a part in his death?

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This makes no sense. Biotop doesn’t want** brewha** to be lynched, so he should…vote for brewha?

A bit later, sachertorte claims Lutha. Again,** paul’s** only response to this development is to view it as a threat to the** brewha** lynch which he is clearly very invested in.

@paulwhoisaghost

So Crys is your teammate but you unvote the one person ahead of them in the lynch… putting them closer to being the person getting the noose today? For a team of survivors worrying about making it to end game, you seem awful willing to risk a vote swing that puts Crys on the chopping block.

Something is afoot… there are too many people fleeing brewha and casting one off votes…

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I think paul comes out of this looking pretty scummy, but at least he isn’t lurking, so I’ll hold off on the vote for now.

I’m done for tonight. See you all tomorrow.

[snfaulkner]

@Mahaloth

**Poof!

Did you hear that? Yeesh, that was…odd sounding. Very odd. And…oh, look.**

Sario is dead. He was the Wizard.

This is a Day death. It does not impact the total available lynches. It was not a mod-kill.

Ah fer fucks sake! Sorry to see you go Sario, not that I ever really saw you here.

[Cygnus42]

PS - Man, our blue power roles are droppin’ fast here. I don’t remember the ratio of vanilla to town powers, but it really seems like we’re losing a disproportionate number of them.

[Thing_Fish]

Oh yeah, can’t forget this gem from earlier today:

@paulwhoisaghost

I agree with this. That’s why I said I really didn’t think the vig would be targeting any cultists. It seemed there was a lot of people not considering that following Brewha’s death the vig is pretty much out of commission. The question is, we’re those people playing dumb because they know who has the other batswitch or did they not connect the dots?

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Yeah, “those people”. Too bad** paul** forgot to warn us about this at the time.:rolleyes:

[Hockey_Monkey]

Oh vey! WTF?

Did he use up all his spells? That seems…unwise. Why would anyone do that so early in the day and with no real knowledge (claims) to protect? They wouldn’t. Strange things are afoot at the Circle K.

[Captain_Klutz]

@raventhief

Powers will always resolve at the Dusk or Dawn of the Day or Night, respectively, on which they are used; no powers will ever resolve in the middle of a Day or Night. (from the rules and regs)
So - not a modkill, and not the results of powers?

Yep, looks contradictory,

How does a Day Death match up with "Powers will always resolve at the Dusk or Dawn of the Day or Night, respectively, on which they are used; no powers will ever resolve in the middle of a Day or Night."

[Mahaloth]

@Captain_Klutz

Yep, looks contradictory,

**
It is contradictory and again I find myself apologizing. I will add this: I was under the impression we pulled that statement out of the game…and it has ended up in game. The Wizard role can(and did) resolve a death mid-Day.

Doing our best, folks. I apologize again for the confusion.**

[TexCat]

WTF?

Does this mean we have a double lynch possible?

[Thing_Fish]

Forgot to add, concluding the summary above:** paul** posted eight more times between the last post quoted above and EoD, mostly about the Lutha issue. He never addressed the issue of** brewha’s** death likely making our Vig unusable.

And also: Sario? WTF? If we don’t get some scum flips soon I am going to assume this is some Gastard game where everyone is Town and start voting for the Mods.

[Mahaloth]

@TexCat

WTF?

Does this mean we have a double lynch possible?

I said it was a Daydeath. It is. No increase to the lynch.

[LightFoot]

@paulwhoisaghost

Yes… so long as we can kill all the scum with only the lynch before the 3P achieve their wincon, then we are okay… just one problem… the games all blue so far… which means if the 3P are lying about their wincon, then town could be in trouble. I’m playing Devils advocate here… it doubly helps us to not lynch the 3P. Once because we know we don’t have to hunt for scum there. (If you believe they are 3P and the claim is at least honest about that… and that’s how I’m going to proceed. I agree that it is unlikely scum would be given the false role PMs.) And a second time because they count against scum wincon. We need to lynch scum and only scum anyone else would be a mistake.

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we know the order of operations for wincons. so until we get close to that threshold we are good, non?

[Thing_Fish]

OK, and after this I really am done. Here, again, are all the Day Two votecounts in chronological order:

1/20 morning
Vote count!!!

---

DAY TWO VOTE COUNT(through post 218)
If the vote count is wrong, it’s because we hate you and want you to check it yourself. Uh, there are no powers affecting vote count, so take a look at your vote for accuracy.

Pleonast (3) - Lightfoot (288), Hooker Chemical (295), Thing Fish (297)

Angelofthenorth(2)- Zeriel(60), Boozahol(80)

Toejam(2) - raventhief(31), Idle Thoughts(32)

BillMC (2) - Drainbead(132), Texcat(179)

DiggitCamera (2) - snfalkner (332), Paulwhoisaghost (386)

Idlethoughts (1) - Angelofthenorth(44)

Sario (1) - ProfessorPepperwinkle(46)

Sachertorte (1) - Meeko(203)

Snfaulkner (1) - DiggitCamera(250)

Texcat (1) - Plumpudding(68)

Thingfish (1) - Pleonast(121)

Chronos (1) - Nanook(151)

Meeko (1) - Johnnybravo(169),

Crys (1) - Guiri (262)

JSgoddess (1) - Hoopy Frood (294)

Pleonast is the leader and would be lynched if nothing changed. No second lynch has been reached at this point. 17 votes are required for the second lynch.

---

Brought to you by Pepperwinkle Farms.

Remember when the only points you had to make were Sexton points? Pepperwinkle Farms remembers.

1/21 morning

VOTE COUNT

1 – brewha (14 votes) – Chronos (538), Biotop (543), Boozahol Squid (556), Cometothe…Cookies (575), sachertorte (576), bufftabby (622), Drain Bead (638), raventhief (646), paulwhoisaghost (702), Khameleon (716), Lakai (720), HookerChemical (722), Meeko (726), ToeJam (730)

2- Crys75 (8 votes) – Guiri (262), Sunny Daze (568), Hockey Monkey (584), DiggitCamara (588), AngeloftheNorth (595), Texcat (639), Captain Klutz (640), snfaulkner (641)

3 – Pleonast (2 votes) – Lightfoot (288), Thing Fish (297)
PLAYERS WITH ONE VOTE:
ToeJam (Idle Thoughts – 32); Hockey Monkey (Hoopy Frood – 665); Sario (ProfPepperwinkle – 46); Texcat (Plumpudding – 68); Thing Fish (Pleonast -121); Chronos (Nanook – 151); Meeko (Johnny Bravo – 169); paulwhoisaghost (Zeriel – 529); Captain Klutz (Crys75 – 582).

1/21 evening
VOTE COUNT
1 – brewha (17 votes) – Chronos (538), Biotop (543), Boozahol Squid (556), Cometothe…Cookies (575), sachertorte (576), bufftabby (622), Drain Bead (638), raventhief (646), paulwhoisaghost (702), Khameleon (716), Lakai (720), HookerChemical (722), Meeko (726), ToeJam (730), crys(743), Johnnyb(767), Profpepper(794)

2- Crys75 (10 votes) – Sunny Daze (568), Hockey Monkey (584), DiggitCamara (588), AngeloftheNorth (595), Texcat (639), Captain Klutz (640), snfaulkner (641); jsgodess(795), Hawkeyeop(803), Zeriel(860)

Pleonast (2 votes) – Lightfoot (288), Thing Fish (297)

PLAYERS WITH ONE VOTE:
ToeJam (Idle Thoughts – 32); Hockey Monkey (Hoopy Frood – 665); Texcat (Plumpudding – 68); Thing Fish (Pleonast -121); Chronos (Nanook – 151); sachertorte(brewha - 806); snfaulkner(1)(koldanar -819)

1/22 morning
VOTE COUNT

brewha (17 votes) – Chronos (538), Biotop (543), Boozahol Squid (556), Cometothe…Cookies (575), bufftabby (622), Drain Bead (638), raventhief (646), paulwhoisaghost (702), Khameleon (716), Lakai (720), HookerChemical (722), Meeko (726), crys(743), Johnnyb(767), Profpepper(794), billmc(947), TotalLost(956)

Crys75 (10 votes) – Sunny Daze (568), Hockey Monkey (584), DiggitCamara (588), AngeloftheNorth (595), Texcat (639), snfaulkner (641); jsgodess(795), Hawkeyeop(803), Zeriel(860), Scathach(959)

ToeJam(5)- Idle Thoughts(32), biotop(909), sachertorte(913), captainklutz(950), sinjin(955),

Pleonast (2 votes) – Lightfoot (288), Thing Fish (297)

snfaulkner(2): guiri(812), koldanar (819)

PLAYERS WITH ONE VOTE:
; Hockey Monkey (Hoopy Frood – 665); Texcat (Plumpudding – 68); Thing Fish (Pleonast -121); Chronos (Nanook – 151); sachertorte(brewha - 806);

1/22, 2 ¼ hours before Day end

brewha (15 votes) – Chronos, Biotop, Boozahol Squid, Cometothe…Cookies, bufftabby, Drain Bead, paulwhoisaghost, Khameleon, Lakai, Meeko, crys, Johnnyb, Profpepper, billmc, TotalLost

ToeJam(10 votes) - Idle Thoughts, biotop, sachertorte, captainklutz, sinjin, HookerChemical, Guiri,Thing Fish, brewha, raventhief

Crys75 (8 votes) – Hockey Monkey, DiggitCamara, AngeloftheNorth, Texcat, snfaulkner; Hawkeyeop, Zeriel, Scathach

Please note that this is a quick back-of-the-envelope count and includes only the top three vote getters.

DAY TWO FINAL VOTECOUNT

1 – brewha (16 votes) – Chronos (538), Biotop (543), Boozahol Squid (556), Cometothe…Cookies (575), bufftabby (622), Drain Bead (638), paulwhoisaghost (702), Khameleon (716), Lakai (720), Meeko (726), crys(743), Johnnyb(767), Profpepper(794), billmc(947), TotalLost(956), Innerstickler(1033),

2- Crys75 (8 votes) – Hockey Monkey (584), DiggitCamara (588), AngeloftheNorth (595), Texcat (639), snfaulkner (641); Hawkeyeop(803), Zeriel(860), Scathach(959)

ToeJam(14)- Idle Thoughts(32), biotop(909), sachertorte(913), captainklutz(950), sinjin(955), Hooker(988), guiri(995), brewha(998), Thingfish(1000), raventhief(1002), sunnydaze(1023), Mhaye(1036), jsgoddess(1038), nesta(1039),
PLAYERS WITH ONE VOTE:
; Hockey Monkey (Hoopy Frood – 665); Texcat (Plumpudding – 68); Thing Fish (Pleonast -121); Chronos (Nanook – 151); Pleonast (1 votes) – Lightfoot (288); snfaulkner(1): koldanar (819)

[snfaulkner]

@paulwhoisaghost

I think we are gonna ping each other every game… something to keep in mind next game. So far the impression I get from you this game is that you are participating only to the point of commenting on cases other people make. But I haven’t focused on you, so that may be unfair.

To address your points, you call it putting words in your mouth, but my post was clearly addressing you. Yes I rephrase what you wrote, but I did so in order to put what I parsed from your post in my own words to make sure I was understanding you properly. I wasn’t. I am pretty sure I explained that during N2. My bad.

You did, but it still left a bit a tang in my mouth. Nothing too serious, yet.

And my crazy paranoid theories were not intended to be confusing. I was trying to consider all possibilities and rule them out… where I thought I saw scumminess I posed the possibility. This game is complex. Two scum factions, a cult, and switches to boot. Who am I to assume exactly how complex it is? I suspect I am at more of info disadvantage than you. Not necessarily that you are scum, but that you have a role that naturally has more info than mine.

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I can follow your theories up to the point when they become overly complex. You do seem to be acting the way you did in our one previous game together (when we were both town), so this ping is very slight.

[LightFoot]

@Cygnus42

Is it still close enough to Dawn to count? It’s 8 hours later…

It is possible that the Mods missed an order/result— but in all fairness that should have been noted,

[nesta]

@Mahaloth

**
It is contradictory and again I find myself apologizing. I will add this: I was under the impression we pulled that statement out of the game…and it has ended up in game. The Wizard role can(and did) resolve a death mid-Day.

Doing our best, folks. I apologize again for the confusion.**

Welcome to the game; you are a Wizard
…
POWERS: You have 7 protective spells you can cast on any player in the game during any game cycle. Protect someone with a Day spell, protect someone with a Night Spell. Protect 2, 3, 4 or even 7 people all in the same Day or Night. Use your spells however you want. BUT, and this is important: Once you use your 7th charge YOU DIE. So, be careful. Now go forth and stop people from being murdered!

It looks like Sario used his 7th protection. My guess, due to Sario’s low participation, is that he decided to go out in a poof rather than a modkill.

Here’s hoping he at least saved someone from the day kill.