**“The more that die, the more we…can kill!”
That was the thought that churned around in the minds of the players. So exciting, so thrilling, so many possibilities. Then, they went outside and found the first victim of the Nighttime.
**
**Drain Bead is dead. She was the Leprechaun. **
**And that, my dear players, was it.
One Town-alligned player died in the Night. Only one lynch is allowed toDay.
It is now Day. Day ends on Sunday at 3:00.**
Another power role down? Pfui!
Well, crap. But at least we only lost one townie in the night.
Ciao Drain Bead.
So… Apparently someone got blocked/protected.
Drain Bead voted for Lakai V1 and brewha both of whom were town. It looks like she was leaning on Prof. P last night.
I don’t think that’s necessarily the case. There’s the night kill. There’s the potential Batman kill, but I suspect the Batman button is in sole possession of scum and it appears they didn’t want Batman active. There’s no confirmation of a serial killer or other third party killing role. One kill makes sense to me.
Yeah, true, didn’t think about that. There’s also the hitman, but apparently they only kill protective roles.
Aww, damn it! (Also, OMFG I WAS THE FUCKING ROLEBLOCKER AGAIN.)
Off to the spoiler thread. Adios, Town.
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I was going to be seriously ticked off if I was night killed after writing this up, but I didn’t want to post this until Dawn.
Hooker’s Day Three Thoughts
Third Parties - We need to find scum. For now, I don’t see evidence that the claimed third party players are any more anti-town than incorrect voters. I’m leaning toward them being non-win stealing. Even if they aren’t, I think finding scum is a higher priority so we can begin to pull at loose threads and unravel the whole thing. The quicker we bring down scum, the better allying with us will look to the cultists I have almost no doubt that the claims of being third party are legitimate based on Cry’s quoted claim and sachertorte’s breadcrumbs that predate the claim. It’s possible that scum could collude on their boards to breadcrumb early, have another scum claim with a full fake PM, then have the other confirm it, but the chances of that seem remote. The chances that scum have knowledge of the third party PMs is also small. Maybe we lynch one later to confirm the validity of the claims, but it’s not a priority…
ToeJam - ToeJam needs to be flipped. The idea that the late wagons onto TJ were scum driven border on the ridiculous. Because those votes were coming off mod confirmed townies. A major factor for the late wagon on him was that I and others were content to let the mods make the kill (or sub) for us. I still believe my early case (D1.568). His posts are self-contradicting. His actual play (overly accommodating - “If you’re town, just ask me to clarify”) does not match his’s claimed playstyle (aggressive and confrontational). TJ is too accommodating and eager to be free of questioning. TJ did a complete 180 on Colby in the span of 9 posts and less than an hour. TJ fell under suspicion and went into a lurk so deep it nearly required mod intervention.
Since emerging from the lurk, TJ’s most posts have been nonsense. I will call attention to his rebuttal of my D1.568 case in post D2.1022, because there is some meat there and you should read his response. I’m not convinced, but it deserves a read. In other posts, he throws down a brewha vote while admitting that he’s severely behind in his reading and states it’s a policy vote (lynch the liars). His “catching up” posts indicate that he gets a townie vibe from brewha, but the vote doesn’t come off. (He later says he thinks brewha is scummy for the plan to have the vig target brewha, but that misreads brewha as being the origin of the plan.) Thinking that TJ would be the daykill makes zero sense because there is little doubt that TJ would be an early contender for the next lynch. The vanilla townie self-targeting thing is so weird I can’t even classify it as scummy, only confusing and nonsense that distracts us from material investigation.
I’m far from 100% sure ToeJam is scum, but I still like my case and have a moderate scum lean on him. If he is scum, we’ll finally have some decent voting information to analyze. If he’s town, I think looking at the late ToeJam voters will be helpful to find D1 scum voters who were trying to avoid having a mislynch on their record and D2 scum voters pushing for a second mislynch.
Policy votes - I’m becoming more anti-policy vote as this game moves along. They’re too easy to make and don’t give town much information to go on. I get the urge to vote to lynch the liar (I had my vote on brewha myself), but in the end we end up with a dead townie and a bunch of people who can say “My vote was legit. I voted against the confirmed liar.” Likewise, the Colby slip voters. (I realize that slips aren’t as broadly considered policy votes, but they’re an easy defense.) I’m afraid lynching lurkers and third parties will end up the same way. We kill off our own with easily defensible but wrong votes that kill off townies and provide a crappy vote record. There is a lot going on in this game. By the sheer quantity of posts, people will make slips, accidental lies (not saying that’s the case on brewha), edits, and other things that might draw a policy vote. I’m not saying you shouldn’t factor things like lies into votes, but we have to factor more into the vote. Otherwise, we’re left with thin gruel when we look back at the votes.
My FOS list:
ToeJam for the reasons given above.
Pleonast, who may have breadcrumbed to scum that he wasn’t going to use the scum board.
Snfaulkner - I have nothing concrete here, but he feels wrong this game. I’m not seeing much meat to his posts, but that’s not unusual. He can put out a lot of fluff, but then make a connection that really surprises me. The problem is that I don’t see effort being made toward that connection.
Prof. Pepperwinkle - I’m not seeing much content here.
Others have put together cases on low volume posters that I think are suspicious as well.
Tonwie leans:
Thing Fish - I find myself agreeing with TF’s posts a lot. It’s not a guarantee he’s town, but he and Chronos were my two top townie reads.
Johnny Bravo - He’s making his way into this category despite my early suspicion. It’s a weak lean at this point but worth mentioning.
Guiri - Angel read guiri and septimus as townie on D1, and I trust her early reads. I trust her proclaimed reads more than I trust her. (I’m still neutral on her, but I buy her leans.)
vote ToeJam
We laughed for a long time about that we did.
Yeah, and now I won’t know how she would respond to my comments on her Wall.
I have the flu now (caught from son) so I do want to get some thoughts out early. I will hold off on voting for now.
I do think that ToeJam’s play has been inconsistent. I think HookerChemical lays it out well above. I will also say that I really don’t understand the “send trick PMs to the Mods” in case others are watching, and it likely only makes extra work for the mods. Can’t see how this helps Town win. FOS for starting hot and hostile/disappearing/back hard and hostile and weird.
Meeko - not a FOS - just a what the hell. Dude - you can express yourself clearly when you want to. You did get to the point where you just said, I think everyone should claim, and then modified to, well all VTs should claim. I think. Fine, that’s something we can all debate. Couching it all in third party references and expecting everyone to bring the same thing to the party is naive at best. I could be all Spinal Tap and Monty Python and a few other things and only speak in that metaphor, and we wouldn’t get very far. I think it’s more reasonable to establish the common language before losing your shit though.
Idle Thoughts - yes, this is a FOS. He started this party. Where is he? I’d like to know if there are IRL constraints (mod-life) what have you, can’t find a sub, whatever, or if there’s something else keeping him from playing. I know we’re mixed on whether “meta” analysis of play-style is relevant, but is this consistent with his play-style?
Drain Bead seems like a good target as one of the top posters for Day 2. Pick off active Townies and the rest will sort itself out in time.
Sorry, Drain. As I said at Night, I’ll be stepping up and posting more.
I’m going to take some time and look through Day 2.
What’s been interesting thus far is that no wolves or mafia have gotten caught in each other’s crosshairs. I’m sure it’s helpful to be able to discuss it amongst yourselves but still, you’re playing with imperfect information. Killing the other faction is good, but not your number one priority. For either scum side to win, they just need to get down to 15 players and then pick off a single opposing faction. Unlikely? Sure. But the math says that going after Townies is the best course of action.
Okay, now that the night is over:
I still very much want to lynch Sachertorte per my plan:
During the night it occurred to me that one of the scum teams may be perpetuating an extremely ballsy two-player plan that revolved around Sach breadcrumbing the fake LUTHA role and then Crys later claiming so that Sach could back her up.
I don’t think it’s the most likely scenario around the LUTHA role, but it’s not at all outside the realm of possibility. What would be the point, you ask? Well, a lot of folks are saying that we should leave them be for now. And neither of them was killed last night.
I say that we lynch sachertorte unless more LUTHA claim. If he flips cultist, then Crys’s claim is much more solid and they’ll still have four cultists left.
Vote Sachertorte
I might be less available this week. I work in health policy and our world is on fire right now. I vow to keep up with the reading.
I want to look up Sach’s history a bit more. The 3rd party play would be a very ballsy gambit, I agree. But what purpose did it serve at the time of claiming? Were they both under that much pressure to break down like that on Day 2? That seems very hasty for something that could massively backfire.
Currently, I’m opposed to wasting a lynch on known or suspected 3rd party. That may change.
At the same time, I’m almost certain Crys is lying.
First of all, even in a game this size, having Town, Wolves, Mafia, AND a FIVE person 3rd party? That’s almost as large as each scum team. That’s not a 3rd party, that’s a fourth faction! And a 3rd party with (multiple?) power roles that’s completely off the radar in regards to Role PMs?
And why does 3rd party need power roles anyway? If the win condition is just to survive, why the hell would they need to investigate anyone? Lynch them all! Who cares as long as they stick around.
And why would their win condition be to just survive to the end? Why would the mods have so much explanation in the rules about potential exclusive win conditions for 3rd party if there wasn’t one in the game?
No. Nothing about Crys’s claim makes a lick of sense.
It’s all a lie.
But I just don’t know what to do about it.
Ah yes, the west coast plague. Have fun. I just now feel at 100%, 2 weeks later. Though really like 3 days of hell. But now, two of my friends now have it, and it seems half of my office has had it for the last month. Get well and good luck!
Anyway, back to the game.
I’m willing to believe Brewha had the batswitch. We know, or at least it seems we know, that AUBatman likes to kill lynch runners up from N1. Who was a lynch runner up on D2? ToeJam. Scum would know this and they turned off their batswitch to save ToeJam. Therefore:
**
Vote ToeJam**
Also for all the crazy plays he’s made, as summed up so well by Hooker above.
Unofficial final Day One votecount (Thing Fish’s count, Edited and colorized by SNF and UPDATED for N1 blues, further updated by Hoopy Frood so maybe his actual vote will show up where it should, and reupdated for D2 blood, and re-reupdated for N2 slayings.
Lakai (18 votes) - Inner Stickler (257), RedSkeezix(319), Plumpudding(647), Light Foot (883), Koldanar (900), Hoopy Frood(1031), AngeloftheNorth (1078), Hockey Monkey (1102), Drain Bead (889), Raventhief (1109), Meeko (1082), buffytabby (1094), jsgoddess (1129), MHaye (1176), nesta (1187), ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (1206), Nanook of the North Shore (1208)
ToeJam (15 votes) - Sunny Daze (113), Hooker Chemical (184), sinjin (200), Sachertorte (534), Captain Klutz(796), Normal Phase (1011), Prof. Pepperwinkle (1057), BillMC (1152), septimus (1154), Biotop (1178), Guiri (1182), EnderW24 (1195), Chronos (1197), snfaulkner (1205), Lakai (1209)
colby11 (6 votes) - Texcat (91), ToeJam (132), Hawkeye(350), brewha (683), Pleonast (841), Suburban Plankton (1026)
Angelofthenorth (3 votes) - Zeriel(413), TotalLost(492), Boozahol Squid PI (546),
PLAYERS WITH 1 VOTE:
Pleonast (1 vote) - Thing Fish (794)
snfaulkner (1 vote) - diggitcamera (264)
Normal Phase (1 vote) - Johnny Bravo (36),
Texcat (1 vote) - Scathach(758)
brewha (1 vote) - Colby11 (946)
[/QUOTE]
NOT VOTING 8 players: Daphne Black, crys75, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, Khameleon, precambrianmollusc, Sario, Winston Smith
I agree with this. That’s why I said I really didn’t think the vig would be targeting any cultists. It seemed there was a lot of people not considering that following Brewha’s death the vig is pretty much out of commission. The question is, we’re those people playing dumb because they know who has the other batswitch or did they not connect the dots?
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I agree with the case on ToeJam, and I think snfaulkners additional point sounds probable, but I’d like to hold off for now. I think ToeJam needs to go to the gallows sooner, rather than later, if just to clear things up. But I also feel we lost some scum-huntin’ yesterDay, and it’s still early toDay, so still time to make up for it. One of the reasons I brought up looking over the actual case-making of voters on the three largest wagons yesterDay after the brewha switch-claim. Anyway, I predict lots of people to jump on ToeJam toDay, so unless I’m needed I’ll snoop around elsewhere.
So, SNF, any other leans, FOS’s etc?
I’m gonna look over TexCat Day 2, to see if I might revive my vote or not. Other than that, I’m feeling iffy on Pleo, on the Prof. (I hope you start contributing a bit more soon), a bit on paulwhoisaghost (strangely aggressive, as if he has to make up for something) and Sunny Daze (OMGUS, weak case on me), and the bottom of the barrel lurkers.
On Crys and sachertorte: I can understand some arguments for how certain behaviors of theirs could be scummy, but for it all to add up together… I just don’t see the point, from their point of view as scum. Why not just stay silent? None of them were considered prime lynch-beef before all of this. The contortions to make all of this add up as scum motivation makes it improbable, IMO.
But, any serious binocular effort will have to wait until tomorrow, as it’s late where I am and I’m tired.