I don’t think your logic holds. In the state we’re in, a switch claim with no target attached can’t be meaningfully counterclaimed, and it seems like a very safe thing (since it’s not a 100% certainty even if we had all the info) for a scum to admit to owning “a switch”.
Elaborate if you can, but I don’t see any reason in your reasoning to believe a switch claimer is more likely to be town.