Here’s the one for D1/N1. I agree about looking for patterns.
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Sario has only posted fluff, and didn’t vote either Day. That’s where I’m starting my vote toMorrow.
ETA: I botched the [SPOILER] tags, and fixed it. That’s all. Really.
I think Sario would be a good target for the Vig. It’ll be an uphill slog to get the community as a whole to vote for Sario. If the vig makes a point of picking off non-voters and non-posters, that will goad the other posters into not falling into that group.
That being said, I suspect a lot of the nonposters and nonvoters will be nilla town. When players don’t have a ‘fun’ action, they tend to drift away.
Role PMs won’t tell you anything about vig strategy. If you have a town-aligned mandatory vig, they are best eliminating runners up for lynchings and picking off low- and non-participatory players. The former helps prevent the next Day being a retread of the previous day and provides a more complete picture of the voting story. The latter helps keep town and scum alike posting and voting because no one wants to draw the attention of a killer not run by committee.
Yeah but this is partially for my own piece of mind. I would feel terrible if I allowed a scum to hide in the ranks of Lutha. But I’m willing to think about it. Tell me why I shouldn’t investigate sachertorte
I can’t even. WTF?
How is it our fault that you failed to show up until the end of the day. I didn’t realize that we must defer to your busy schedule, but our lack of a time machine to vote for you earlier in the day, while you were missing, is somehow unfair to you.
It is my belief that the only reason you didn’t have more votes earlier in the day is because you were on deck to be mod-killed. I believe I stated as much.
Yes.
Yeah well, I didn’t want you to claim. So we have that in common. But overall, I think your claim is working out better than I expected. I expected you to get lynched hard, but town has shown an open-mindedness that could lead to a benefit for all. I agree that we all shouldn’t claim just yet, but backing up your claim gives it more weight. It is risky, that’s sort of the point. You took a risk in claiming. Town takes a risk in not lynching you. I take a risk in claiming. There’s a lot of giving and trust there. That is good for Town and good for us.
It is possible that the Vig could kill both us. One of us, is perhaps forgivable. Both, less so. If that happens, then I expect the other cultists to clam up and play it safe for as long as they can. But who knows? They will have to make that judgment for themselves.
I didn’t claim to save you. At least that wasn’t the primary reason. Part of my reasoning for claiming was that I felt you didn’t need saving.
ToeJam came in second for the Lynch vote on Day 1. Voting for him on Day 2 is not unexpected. If anything, ToeJam’s lack of participation was preventing people from voting for him earlier in Day 2. That he is getting end of day votes is a combination of the realization that the brewha train is terrible and his taking himself out of mod-kill candidacy.
I can only provide what I can provide. Crys posted the role PM. All I can do is show posts of mine that show knowledge of that PM prior to her reveal.
There is a balance between being out in the open and in danger of being killed and being hidden and also in danger of being killed. No matter what, there is that danger. Being out means the danger is from someone or collectively making the decision to kill me. It could happen. It could also happen that the killers realize that I’m not a threat to them. I don’t know what they will do, so yes, it is a risk, but by claiming, I might fall off the radar of killers and increase my chances of survival.
Crys didn’t exactly behave the way I would expect a survivor to behave either, but we’re all unique snowflakes.
Why are you preemptively blaming me for Crys’s death? To me this looks like scum planning to kill Crys and put the blame on me.
I’m assuming we all have cultist investigation powers. Crys has it, I have it. I assume all the cultists have it. So even if Crys dies, don’t you think it possible for another cultist to check me out?
You’re also too dismissive of breadcrumbs.
And here’s the really weird part. paulwhoisaghost was the player who was most reasonable about Crys claim. The accuracy of his assessment was a big part of what led me to claim. And now he’s being all weird about it. I don’t understand it. I guess that’s the surprise I was expecting.
My bold. Idle Thoughts, I think, is a good place to start. Very low activity. He started this party, didn’t he? I expected more.
Spoilered to relevant portion
Actually, I agree with this observation. I did think paulwhois was very supportive of Crys. He does seem to be back-tracking. I was expecting Paul to be the next Lutha, TBH.
No. I made a mistake, and I corrected that mistake. I thought the consensus would be for a double Lynch. Voting for brewha supports that double Lynch without directly voting for Crys.
ToeJam was set for mod-kill at the time of my vote.
Nope. I can do math. The situation I thought would happen wasn’t coming to be. I thought players would vote to double Lynch. (That’s part of why I voted for brewha
If Town wants to Lynch Crys they are going to do so. Voting for brewha isn’t going to stop that. And not voting for brewha is entirely consistent with my assessment that Crys wasn’t going to get lynched, which is what I believed.
ONE person. That one person doesn’t have to be me and it doesn’t have to be Crys.
As I understand it, the investigation is only a one shot power if they find a cultist… there is no reason not to investigate to try to find other cultists if you trust everything they have claimed thus far.
Even though I trust what sachertorte has said there is still always that niggling thought in the back of my brain, and because I believe them that all of you do. I’m super bad at picking up breadcrumbs now that sachertorte pointed out Theirs they seem obvious and I can’t believe I missed them.
I’m not preemptively blaming you for Crys’s death, I’m explaining why I’m more suspicious of you than of Crys. I don’t know you are telling the truth. If I consider you could be lying, one reason could be that you are scum. If you follow the logic that you are scum and are false claiming to group yourself with the cultists, then it would make sense that your scum team would kill Crys to stop Crys from investigating and outing you. True, other cultists could investigate and out you, but they risk wasting their investigation if you are telling the truth. Even if they do investigate you, they would have to out themselves to tell us that you are lying. If you are lying, this is a possibility.
This is how I play the game. I look at what people say and figure out what all possible scenarios are and then try to rule them out based on available evidence. Right now the only evidence supporting your claim are your breadcrumbs. That’s pretty good evidence, but it doesn’t entirely rule out you being lying scum, it just makes it unlikely.
This is one possible reason that I am not going to blindly trust Sach’s claim… I am not ready to make a final decision on what to do about cultists, so I’m asking questions. I don’t think it’s best for town to use our lynch on any of you yet, but that doesn’t mean I can’t sniff this out until I am satisfied.
What you do doesn’t really matter to town. You are third party. You claim you can win with anyone. Your power doesn’t help us all that much, however.
But it seems reasonable to this townie that you and sachertorte are truthfully claiming that you are part of the same cult because it would be a huge gamble for a scummy sachertorte to have done this. There’s a lot of risk for not much gain at this point. Especially because you claim you haven’t had your power used up yet. And sachertorte was under no pressure. Which means all you would have to do is investigate him and out him as lying scum, buying your cult increased chances of town being willing to work with you and scum being down one number.
So barring some weird mechanic, there is no reason for sachertorte to be lying. So there’s not much reason for you to spend your power on him. If you can confirm more cultists, and the cultists decide to ally with town as an alternate mason-like group, scum have less space to hide. The risk to town in this alliance is that you can stab us in the back and work with scum. The risk to you is if you are all exposed, scum can just take you all out since by killing you they don’t reduce the pool they can hide in any further.
This, of course, is assuming you are being completely honest about the win condition and powers.
But for your own sake, you are probably better trying to find other cultists. For town’s sake, if you ally with us, knowing who a few of the other cultists are is good for us so we don’t lynch or vig them instead of scum, because in the numbers game, you cultists count as townies.
So investigating sachertorte is, while not a waste of your power, probably not the most ideal play for any interested parties.
But it’s not really a bad play, either. Use your best judgement.
Thank you. I understand your perspective now… I don’t agree with how you chose to act, but I understand it a little better.
The biggest hang ups i have are the benefit that scum could gain from doing exactly what you did and the fact that it is only N2 and 2/5 of your survival team are outed. In a game this size you have a long road ahead of you and there is a good chance other cultists could get hit in some crossfire… if you are telling the truth, that’s awful risky to have almost half the team outed so early.
I still am supportive of not lynching Crys… I am more wary of Sach, but don’t think we should Lynch either of them. We need to start killing scum. It bugs the crap out of me that we have so many posts for people to analyze and they are still content with lynching 3P and non-participants, neither of which is scum hunting IMHO.