If ToeJam lives through the Night, he’s probably our obvious lynch for D3. But just because there’s a potential foregone conclusion doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be doing our research on other players. I’ve already expressed my suspicion of BillMC earlier in this thread after doing a WoW on him, and that suspicion remains. I’ve noticed a lot of people find the esteemed Professor to be scummy, so I figured I’d do a WoW on him, since I have time and I’m at an actual computer for a bit. All added asterisks are mine, done when I want to make a point later.
[SPOILER]
Day/Night One
3 - A list of who posted and how much during N0.
92 - D1 votes are a dart throw. Some players attack and see how others react, but he’s not good at that, so he tends to go fluff on D1 and sees who that pisses off. But in a game of this size, that method won’t work all that well. He won’t be posting as often as usual for that reason. He favors lynch the lurker, but later in the Day, not early.* Attacking others makes targets, which creates voting histories which will be useful later.
160 - 7 votes out of this game is equivalent to 2 votes in a game of normal size, so he’s not concerned about the early Colby wagon. Asks mods if we’re allowed to hammer.
167 - Fluff about Meeko’s MC Hammer reference.
283 - Responds to DiggitCamara** saying that the rules say no multivoting, and says that Pleonast (who was the multivoter in question) said in his post that he knew only the first vote would count.
285 - Tells Angelofthenorth that there’s a role list, explains what the Patsy is in response to her(?) question.***
428 - Normally he’d be fluffy D1, but this game doesn’t allow for it. He just doesn’t see much to comment on, though. Colby’s slip is possible but nowhere near certain. He generally jokes through the first half of D1 and focuses on Lynch the Lurker for the second half.
526 - Day One is a crapshoot. Since he’s taking flak for his normal game mode of posting fluff (only this time without the fluff) and being helpful, it’s time for him to go into Lynch the Lurker. Posts a list of who has posted and how much. Says DaphneBlack and WinstonSmith are slated for Modkill if they don’t post. Points out that Inner Stickler, Enderw24, Koldanar, Precambrianmollusc, and Red Skeezix have 1 post each. Quotes posts from each. Says it’s curious that two of the one-post voters picked Lakai. Attempts to vote EnderW24 (messes it up) for looking eager but then never posting again, as well as reviewing the rules but missing simple points. Explains that he uses Lynch the Lurker as a D1 strategy this is a different environment and game than the Giraffe games where he uses his Fluff strategy. Says that in general, Scum strategy in D1 is to let Town lynch Town and not take much part in leading the charge at all. Says he’ll get to Scum hunting once a full D/N cycle has passed and he has more to go on, but for now, Lynch the Lurker.
527 - Another failed vote attempt
528 - Gets it right this time, says he would have just edited but that would have caused offense.
545 - Says he meant to vote Koldanar rather than EnderW24, as his reasoning applied to Koldanar’s post and not Ender’s (in response to HookerChemical asking him if that’s what he meant to do).
606 - Quotes what appears to be Lyle Lovett lyrics?
628 - Makes a monkey joke.
640 - In an average 5 out of 6 games there’s at least one Scum in the bottom three posters****
641 - Corrects mod vote count in regards to his vote switch.
658 - Tells NAF he switched in post 545.
725 - Says he’ll catch votes for being too helpful, then gives a list of all votes and unvotes in the game to that point.
726 - Gives a key for the shorthand he used to indicate votes and unvotes in the previous post.
746 - Says he’s been keeping the vote tally because he finds votes to be of great significance later in the game. Didn’t comment on the list because it has no context yet. Reiterates that D1 is a crapshoot, says he’s just being a helpful townie.
773 - There are 8-9 votes on Colby. If he’s Scum and his team wants to save him, they only have 6 votes to distribute elsewhere. In a game of this size, Town can ALMOST (emphasis his) disregard a Scum swaying of the lynch, because it would be suicidal for all of them to glom onto the same candidate to save a teammate.***** Scum are going to have to persuade rather than skew the vote by voting, and that will come into effect more around EoD. Seeing as EoD is Sunday, a lower participation day of the week, it’ll be harder for them to try to save Colby (of course, Colby may be Town and that may be a moot point).
827 - Asks Koldanar (who he’s still currently voting for, but who has posted that he’s catching up) if he has any current suspects.
829 - After NP asks him who HIS suspects are, he refers her to post 526, but laments that he hasn’t convinced anyone else.
835 - Says that he focuses on LtL until there’s more solid data in the game from voting records. He says that the small base gives an 85% chance of finding Scum. Says that the problem with this is that there’s really no way of picking out which one from that pool is the Scum. Thinks that this method is still better than lynching the loud. Remember that in this game the Scum is paranoid because there are two teams of them. The best we have today is a possible clearing of septimus and maybe Idle. Closer to EoD he will likely change his vote to one of the leaders, as a one-off is scummy in its own right.******
843 - Says that Idle isn’t cleared, he just claimed VT. In response to NP suggesting that his playstyle has changed from the last game they played together, he says that was one of his first games, and he’s refined his playstyle since then.
869 - Says that he was wrong for suggesting Idle was cleared, since he merely claimed.
872 - NP tells him that her name was different over on Giraffe and they’d played a very recent game over there. He says that he’s dropped LtL on Giraffe, as too many people hate it, he knows enough about the players to use Meta knowledge of them there as a D1 strategy, and that “When I first started using it, I had hoped it would be more effective. It doesn’t actually work any better than any other system, but it does work in its own limited way. The real problem is getting others to implement it, 'cause it doesn’t work if only I vote that way.”*******
891 - Joke post
908 - Unvotes Koldanar now that he’s joined the game. Says he’ll switch vote to one of the lynch leaders closer to EoD, since LtL has failed to gain traction.
915 - D1 is still a crapshoot. He doesn’t see anything that sets any player apart from any other player, which is why he was going with LtL. Everyone is potential scum, minus him. He’ll now be analyzing the major lynch contenders and voting for whoever seems the scummiest to him.********
916 - Says he’ll be using analysis to determine who to switch to, but that successful Town lynches on D1 are nothing but luck.*********
922 - He is not a good player who excels at provoking useful statements from others. Nonetheless, he’ll go over N0 and D1 and hopefully place a useful vote.
997 - Says he’s Town and not 3rd Party. Needs to compare his vote list to Septimus’s, and get down to his reread.
1007 - Says he claimed Town and not 3rd party in response to Chronos requesting it, although Guiri has suspected it’s a 3rd party trick.
1015 - Agrees with Lightfoot’s take on Colby and his posts, that he seems more frustrated and angry that he’s getting lynched early in lots of games.
1057 - Votes ToeJam. Says that the best case is Hooker’s post 536. Says that Colby just seems burned out from too many early deaths, and that most of the arguments against Lakai are centered around confusion which is a null tell, and Angel may or may not be Scum but her saying she loved him gets her a pass until D2.
1062 - Says it was BillMC and not Guiri who suspected a 3rd party trick.
1066 - Gives current vote leader count as 9 for Colby, 8 for Lakai, 7 for ToeJam, and 5 for Angel.
1099 - Tells Suburban Plankton that he voted ToeJam in 1057, because SP posted a list of votes and has him as not voting.
1103 - Gives another vote leader count, this time with 12 Lakai, 7 Colby, 7 ToeJam, and 5 Angel.
1106 - Guesses that ToeJam will claim that RL made him not post since 133, when he had 2 votes to Colby’s 5.
1136 - Corrects moderator vote count showing that brewha voted twice. Notes that only 41 votes are cast at this point out of 54. Thinks tomorrow (not sure if that means D2 or the last calendar day of D1) should be interesting.
1163 - It’s Sunday morning and lots of people said they’d be absent for EoD. Sunset won’t be well attended, but Dawn should be.
1181 - 20% of the posters putting up half the posts on D1 isn’t unusual, but if it’s still the case on D3, there’s a problem.
1186 - Cheese pun about Colby.
1207 - Vote count puts Lakai 2 ahead of Colby, notes flurry of last minute activity.
1212 - Points out that it’s technically EoD.
1215 - Wonders about the odds of three dead.
1219 - Gives D1 vote/unvote count
1226 - Interprets the mod poem for those of us who were confused by the Tapatalk error that left Lakai out of it completely.
1245 - Joke in response to another joke.
1249 - Tells me that there won’t be a separate Night thread.
1251 - Corrects the post number that the announcement about no separate night thread was in.
1254 - Points out that as bad as D1 was, with the potential NKs it’s going to get worse.
1401 - Support for LightFoot’s husband.
1437 - Joke about how we’re all dead as of the morning of D2.
1445 - Thanks the mods for giving a timeframe of when to expect the Dawn post.
*Seems to be making excuses for his poor play. Also, I think that in general, posting fluff annoys Town more than it does Scum, because Town needs information and Scum does not. So if he’s using it to find people he thinks are Town, it’s probably a decent method, but it seems from this post like he’s using it to try to find Scum. I’m not sure how effective that is. I’m pulling this theory out of my ass, but I think it has merit.
**Is DiggitCamara still in this game? I swear, I don’t remember much of anything from him in this game at all.
***He gets the role slightly wrong. Patsy can only kill someone if mislynched, not if NKed. If our remaining investigative types (We still have a Seer, and possibly an Understudy Homicide Detective or Journalist) get a Scum result on Prof., for this reason I’d guess it’d be legit. If he were the Patsy he’d know the role.
****Someone smarter than I am will have to do the math on that. 
*****Then why care about the voting record at all? If this is correct, he shouldn’t be looking at vote tallies, he should be looking at who tries to argue persuasively against voting for someone Scummy, especially around EoD.
******I’m not even sure if that number comes from any sort of place other than his ass. (Not meaning to be insulting here–my ass is the source of many of my theories.) Also, he seems overly concerned with appearing scummy.
*******My theory works, but then again it doesn’t work, but it works in its own limited way. I have no idea what to make of this, seeing as he’s been arguing for LtL for a good portion of the Day.
********So no player stands out from any other, but he’s going to look at their posts and see if one suddenly does? This seems really suspect to me. He’s excusing his actions thus far in the game (which is a trend that started with his first post) and giving a future excuse for potentially bandwagon jumping later.
*********The “being right on D1 is nothing but luck” seems like yet another excuse for a potential mislynch.
My take from this is that he’s trying very hard to be a helpful Townie, but is overly concerned with looking like it, which is a bit Scummy. He also seems to be making lots of excuses in advance for potential poor play. I think knowing what ToeJam is will be almost essential in finishing this analysis, but D2 may also help shine some light as well. So let’s get on with it, shall I?
Day/Night Two
2 - Mad that we’re down 5 town, 3 of whom were power roles.
9 - Thinks it’s a reasonable assumption that Colby got vigged.
14 - Tells Mahaloth that NAF already announced the subs.
15 - Points out 47 votes cast out of 51 players, FOS on anyone who didn’t vote or posted fewer than 10 times.
24 - Average number of posts per poster in D1 was 20. Lakai’s was 18. Colby was at 9. We’re guessing he was vigged. Of the other three dead Townies, who were likely killed by Scum, NP was the 2nd highest volume poster, at 81, SP was the 6th, at 62, and septimus was 15th, at 38, but had claimed. Says that we shouldn’t lynch the loud. Gives a full post count from D1.
25 - Says don’t lynch the loud YET.
46 - Votes for Sario, despite still being okay with a ToeJam lynch, because Sario only posted 5 times D1 and didn’t vote.
50 - Points to post 568 by HookerChemical as the best case against ToeJam on D1.
52 - Gives a link to the post.
76 - Welcomes paul to the game, says he (Prof, not Paul) pings a lot of people. Tells paul to look at post 46 and his vote for Sario despite being okay with ToeJam.
79 - In response to jsgoddess FOSing him for saying lynch the lurker while also saying he’d be posting less and fluffy, he says that he said he wouldn’t post as much as usual, but was still in the top 10 posters D1, and only some of it was fluff.
163 - Only 41 people posted in N1 and D2 so far, which makes 9 possible players to go at Dusk.
185 - Agrees with bufftabby, who said that while Colby’s game was similar to the Dante game in which he was Scum, his reactions in Dante’s game were more “Oh, this D1 crap again?”
256 - What are the odds that Brewha is a 3rd party who wins if he’s NKed?
317 - Agrees with Meeko, who says that those with switches won’t care about our advice about how to use them. (I think. I can never really parse Meeko. Y’all might want to check this one.)
515 - Tries to convince people to vote for Sario because he’s basically not playing at all.
667 - Gives an unofficial vote count. Says he doesn’t have a problem moving his vote to brewha or crys if needed for a second lynch.
669 - Fixes mistake in unofficial count.
671 - After another mistake is pointed out, makes joke.
794 - Unvotes Sario and votes brewha without any additional comment.
989 - Won’t be on much today and will miss EoD.
1081 - Welcomes cygnus to the game.
1116 - Gives final post count for D2, says that we should be using this as the basis of our votes. Needs to catch up with what happened at EoD.
1161 - Offers the one he did for D1, agrees with me that it might be useful for finding patterns. Says he’ll start off D3 voting for Sario again.*
1188 - In response to paul saying that he’s not really making cases, says he made a case on Sario for only posting fluff and not voting either Day. That’s anti-Town, and might be Scum, because he’s seen him play differently in other games.
1196 - Says his low posting D2 was due to RL events. Plans on posting more D3 but will still vote Sario.
1286 - Looking for patterns with only two days of data points is bad, but Angel, as a notoriously high poster, is suspect for posting less this game. Idle’s low posting rate is suspect also.
1289 - Singled out Angel because she is one of the top three posters in nearly every game he’s played with her, so her drop in post count is noticeable. Reiterates that he’s still playing LtL. It’s easier for Scum to hide by not posting than it is for them to post a lot and potentially slip.
1292 - Says that he does LtL because we’ve lynched Town twice, and this isn’t an unusual occurrence. He’s trying to improve chances of hitting Scum, because all they have to do in this game is lay low.
*Had he caught up with his reading at that point? Because if so, he’d have seen the late rush on ToeJam, who he was perfectly okay still voting for in post 46, and who I think almost everyone at this point agrees needs killing so we can make sense of the votes the past two Days. Instead, he comes out and says he’ll be voting Sario again.
Okay. Participation (and level of meaningful and useful information in actual posts) went WAY down on D2. He’s playing LtL, then went into relative lurk mode, while still trying to look helpful by giving the occasional vote count or post tally. Was gone when the ToeJam run really picked up steam, so kept his vote on brewha, but announced his absence ahead of time, so…not really sure what to think of that one.
[SPOILER]
All in all, I’m leaning Scum on this, but not necessarily for who he was voting for. It’s more for trying to look helpful while doing absolutely nothing that helps find Scum.
