I’ll post something after I get me notes out of my luggage. Probably first thing in the morning or late tonight.
I’ll post something after I get me notes out of my luggage. Probably first thing in the morning or late tonight.
Simupost is goint to be blamed on officially not making the earlier connection. Since I’ve got a little time I’ll see if a can put something coherent together before I get to my notes. And the first person who brings up that this would be my first coherent post to date will get a great big fat LOL.
Not quite seeing this. The only time that I mentioned Menocchio (based on my re-read) was post 262 where I agreed with him.
Not quite sure how agreeing with someone helps get a person in jeopardy.
You’ll need to share this “formula” of yours for me to put any faith in it’s efficacy.
Shoot. Just as quiet in here as it is during the night. Kind of disappointing. I truly do wonder if people stood by the lynch the lurker or lynch the under the radar philosophy whether there might be better outcomes (from a reasoned out standpoint) or at least put people on notice that they would be at extreme risk.
Hey, zuma, how come no final vote yesterDay?
Actions speak louder than words. I’ll explain the formula in the morning when I can think clearly. For now:
Vote fluiddruid
[crickets…
crickets…
crickets…]
What, do all you people have lives or something? Yeesh…
Fair enough. And I wasn’t trying to dismiss your analysis out of hand. Merely to see where the break down is since I know it incorrectly pegged me as scum.
OK. Now for my not-so-amazing formula. First, keep in mind that my conclusions are only partly based on the numbers.
The basic idea is that a vote can both help another player and hurt another player, so you can analyze voting to find out not only who someone was trying to hurt, but who they were trying to help. Vaguely speaking, every vote hurts the player you vote for and helps every other player. Votes (and unvotes) that move players into or out of first place are particularly powerful. I decided to count only these votes, which eliminates most of the votes that were cast.
I defined helping a player as moving that player out of first place or moving other players into first place with them. I defined hurting a player as the opposite. For every pair of players, I assigned a number equal to the number of times either member of the pair helped the other, minus the number of times either member of the pair hurt the other.
All pairs had a score from -1 to 1 except in four cases: fluid/Menocchio had a score of -2 and fluid/peekercpa, fluid/nook, and fluid/mad each had a score of 2.
I leave it as an exercise for all honest Simpletons to figure out how I got from there to my conclusions. Please! If you are not Mafia, go back and decide for yourself whether I’m wrong or right! The bad guys will definitely post their opinions about my analysis, and they may claim to agree or disagree with me, but I hope to get enough responses to know that the majority are from Town.
Well, being good honest non-murdering Simpletons, we’ve all been at church! Where have you been? :dubious: 
Since yesterday afternoon?
The Puritans must be making a comeback in this town.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
No.
I’m doing a massive re-read and taking notes. Conclusions are forthcoming. How dare you accuse me of having a life?! 
Time for part one of my first ever post-by-post analysis!
The subject? Fluiddruid. And I’m not going to post links or quote, but I will provide post number for context. If I missed anything, tell me.
–#132
Says that newbie tells are different than veteran tells, because the first game he played, he was afraid of messing up, but was town. Voted Menocchio (the eventual lynch) because he asked about the point of voting randomly, which was “weird for a veteran”.
–#156
Is upset that Menocchio thought that he said that random was honest.
–#173
Fluff, says he never lives past day three.
–#174
Still suspicious of Menocchio, because he was taking an earlier post of his as an endorsement despite intentions.
–#202
Doesn’t think that closed setup should change roleclaims. Emphasises that votes should come in early. Doesn’t want a mess at the end of the day.
–#226
Is happy with voting Menocchio, since he’s “been suspiciously quiet since my last game”.
–#274
Agrees with Blaster Master that role claims are likely to be real because of “my experience as scum”. Also that last minute roleclaims suck because they make targets of power roles, since it’s usually too risky for scum.
–#283
Argues against Menocchio that it would be very difficult for scum to imitate a power role in a closed game. And that we should be suspicious of claims, but not too much. Uses the “if I were scum” again.
–#322
Argues against Shadow Facts that roleclaims are likely to be real (again). He says that any role is going to be highly scruitnized, and that it would be difficult to imitate the popular roles. Emphasises that scum must stay alive
–#323
Agrees with Blaster Master that (again) that role claims are risky and that (differently) it’s “almost certianly to buy a day from a really desperate scum in the last few hours”. Also doubts other killing roles (SK & Vig). Says again that he doesn’t buy Menocchio being town. Wants to discuss voting, since it’s late in the day. (04-01-2008, 05:32 PM)
–#345
Says that we can’t be sure of anything. If we are, that’s overzealousness. Gives example from Recruting game of Pleonast.
–#380
In response to an accusation of confirmation bias from Menocchio, says that he only has a read on Menocchio, except possibly Mad for lurkerdom. Asks lurkers to speak up.
–#389
In response to Sitnam being angry at Mad for one substantive post (in Sitnam’s opinion), says that he’s (fluiddruid’s) “got to go with his gut on this one.” Wants a modkill instead, because it would mean a double lynch.
–#398
ShadowFacts says there are more than four posts by Mad, and he backs down.
–#399
In response to Shadow Facts posting a defense of Menocchio (that since it was day two he was bloodthirsty, and it was only day one at the time, it doesn’t count.) he says that that doesn’t work because everyone was voting for no lynch, and there was only one scum.
Nothing else day one.
What have we learned here? Well, fluiddruid was really, really convinced that Menocchio was scum, because he was so “more wishy-washy, less bloodthirsty”. This despite Menocchio’s claiming to be sick. Also, he was really convinced roleclaims would be rare. Weirdly, he said (at first) that they were likely to be true, but later, he said that they were likely to be desprate scum. Was he trying to clear a path for roleclaiming scum? Also, note the weird shift of targets near the end of the day. Why the sudden focus on Mad right at the end? It was clear that he was very focused on Menocchio the entire day.
Part two coming soon!
pedesribe
I believe that fluiddruid is a she, unless somtheing rather radical has gone on her/his life.
oops.
Alright, sorry about that.
Anyway, interlude!
Okay, right before Mad died, he claimed that
a) he was a detective, and
b) ShadowFacts was town.
Is he town? We know that he was lying about a, but was he trying to protect a fellow scum, or snuggle up to Shadow Facts. I’m pretty sure that he was voting for Mad, so I’m leaning towards snuggle, but it’s important to consider.
I’m really leaning toward MtS trying to smudge ShadowFacts by association. Either that or he might have thought SF was a power role and wanted SF to blurt something out along the lines of “is that all you found out about me?” so the scum would have another power role to off. My thoughts are that MtS was close enough to death to realize the role claim gambit had a good chance of not working, and it would seem unwise to associate himself so closely with a fellow scum that is not really under any suspicion right now, AFAIK.
Well, since we now know that he was not the detective I am of the position that anything he said after the false role claim is discountable (i. e. don’t mean squat).
Here’s part 2 on fluiddruid.
–#470
This is her first real accusation of MadTheSwine. Her main points are that calling for a mod kill is not scummy, because it’s like an extra lynch, and that the number of scum doesn’t matter (and MadTheSwine brought it up in his post), and that he asked the dective to step forward. She calls this “the scummiest post I’ve seen all game”. Plus a vote for him.
–#577
This is a full dissection of MadTheSwine’s defense. She again says that a mod-kill would be like a free lynch [note that it’s substitutions only until dawn day four & we don’t know the role in a modkill anyway] also, she says that he is looking for the dective, which is suspicious. She also says that she’s not totally convinced that he’s scum, and that he’s playing badly, if he is scum.
–#578
Says that we shouldn’t lynch the loud, responds to other assorted posts.
–#603
Is angry at MadTheSwine for not explaning himself.
–#605
Analyzed all my posts day one. Says I don’t sound scummy.
–#606
She thought I was scummy, but changed her mind. Didn’t think “pedescribe was worth a vote”.
–#616
Fully explained why she analyzed my posts. Asked me why I changed my posting style.
–#619
Decisivly decides I’m intentionally lurking, and changes her vote.
–#637
Further explains her vote for me. Says that it’s too coincidential that I responded quickly to her despite not posting much the rest of the day. Says that MadTheSwine was simply the best “candidate at the time.” Thinks that I was coached during night one.
–#639
Thinks that scum roles were assigned randomly. Doesn’t think that every experienced player is scum.
–#654
Reiterates her arguments against me and MadTheSwine against Shadow Facts. Finds me more scummy than MadTheSwine. Wasn’t so convinced about MadTheSwine after all. Doesn’t consider the suspicion on MadTheSwine a mistake. Does not seem to be concerned if either me or MadTheSwine dies.
–#656
Wants to hear MadTheSwine’s case against me. Thinks it’s noose dodging.
–#657
Emphasises that the modkill would be advantageous in this specific case.
–#658
Defends her vote for me against Blaster Master. Thinks that the timing of my post to her defense of my day one is just unbelievable. Defends my day one, attacks my day two. Explains that there is no good scum reason to distance herself from the MTS vote.
–#660
Is suspicious of Blaster Master for accusing her of misrepresenting MadTheSwine’s noose dodging vote
–#674
Says to Blaster Master that he is ignoring her arguments about the noose dodging vote by MTS. Doesn’t think it was a scum tell. Says (again) that Blaster Master is pinging him. Emphasises that we should talk about our votes. Emphaises with me, but still thinks the vote is her best impulse, and is defending the accusations against her because she voted for me.
–#678
I’m just going to quote this post.
–#683
Is embaressed for accusing the detective (i.e. MadTheSwine, who claimed to be the dective).
What do we learn from all this? First of all, fluiddruid is controversial by herself. Her biggest ally is Sitnam, and her biggest enemies are Shadow Facts, Blaster Master, and me. She seems to be taking a very rational role to the game, willing to jump on the best evidence available. Her continuing confusion over the modkill bothers me, though–I still don’t understand how it would have been advantageous for us to have an unknown dead MadTheSwine? Also, she hasn’t posted anything today. I’d like to hear your take, fluiddruid. I know you don’t expect to live to tommorow, so feel free to speak your mind. Lastly, I hope all y’all find this more helpful than I did–it just muddied everything for me.
I just wanted to add another detail about my magic formula: I counted a vote/unvote in the same post as one move.
Also, fluiddruid really needs to get in here.