Mafia: Simpletown

I knew this was coming (of course) and so I had a few days to think about my response to this.

On the one hand, I can’t really argue the logic to a point. It does make sense to look at me because I did move my vote and for reasons that most people don’t seem to buy. Fine. There’s really not a lot for me to argue other than the fact that I did think MadTheSwine was scummy, but not as scummy as pedescribe. Turns out that’s (likely) not the case, but, in my own defense, I’ll say this.

Why did I ride MadTheSwine so hard for most of the Day? On Day 2, there are an awful lot of possible contenders and I came after him early and repeatedly. He fished about the Detective - I was right about that, at least. Is he supposed to have done so intentionally? If so why wouldn’t I have waited longer to accuse him to see if we could get any slips?

Secondly, let’s look at his role. I’m going to presume by the name that “Lead Assassin” is fairly important. If the opposing team is an “assassins” team, I’m assuming he’s a Godfather equivalent role. There are only two other options that I see.

  1. Each member got a relatively meaningless but colorful role. I find this unlikely. sachertorte knows that what information he gives us will be most likely carefully considered, if not agonized over. I don’t think he would give a “lead” role who wasn’t “leading” anything.

2.) There are multiple factions on the opposing team and Lead Assassin is leading one of those. Unlikely. We’re looking at 3-5 (likely 3 or 4) scum so multiple groups of scum is extremely unlikely.

So, I’m going to presume that I was right originally in pegging MadTheSwine as Godfather-equivalent. So, therefore, to vote for me (at least on this basis) you will have to assume all of the following:

1.) The scum team decided to fight inwardly amongst themselves early in Day 2. I’ve already argued that this is unlikely. Why draw unneeded attention to team members rather than waiting a bit to see which way the wind is blowing? Plus, this strategy tends not work repeatedly in one game so it makes sense to use it later. Further, with only 3 or 4 likely scum members, why risk 2 so early?

2.) They decided to risk their most powerful role (again, presumably) in this bluff’s most vulnerable role. Why? To give me street cred if he dies? It’s just not worth the risk so early in the game to lose a scum player on Day 2.

So, I just don’t think it makes a whole lot of sense to presume that MadTheSwine and I did this on purpose. Whether or not I changed my vote at the end, I had a role in him being lynched and my vote for the guy wasn’t throwaway - read the thread, I pushed the point repeatedly.

Now, in regards to switching my vote. All I can say is what I said yesterday, I honestly thought I found a reasonably accurate scum tell so I switched my vote. I don’t regret it really because I think the Town could stand to kill me to look back on what happened on Day 2 with a bit more information. Along the same lines I think we might learn something for killing pedescribe. But I’m not quite willing to do so yet. I have to admit that he hasn’t continued to ping me on any level, and recapping my posts was done reasonably fairly. My personal jury is still out, but while I don’t think he’s the worst candidate, I have to presume there’s better information after lynching MadTheSwine.

So, I guess in summary, I’ll cop to this - my judgement apparently wasn’t exceptional because I did change my vote and I allowed myself to be convinced that Mad wasn’t the best target. Given his role, of course, we know that’s wrong, but being wrong doesn’t make me scum.

I’m quite curious however to see how pedescribe turns out role-wise though because I got very little sympathy on my vote which would have been one way to save Mad (and got a few votes myself in the process). I have to wonder what that means. I will say though that I in no way think all of my critics are scum. In fact, for one, the opposite. Knowing he was going down, I sincerely doubt that Mad would have cast attention on another scum player when he said:

I think it’s pretty safe to assume ShadowFacts is town.

I’m working on potential suspects, though I know my voice doesn’t have much credence with the town. Oh well, it might tomorrow. Next post in a few.

All right. I don’t have much yet, but I’ll say this. I still don’t feel quite right about NAF1138. I just don’t. However I don’t have much more than a vibe at this point, so I’m going to leave it for now. But I’d like to reiterate this thought nonetheless.

However, I’m going to

vote MindWanderer

First, here’s a summary of all his posts Day 1 and Day 2.


http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9626615&postcount=73
Introduction to group as a newbie.

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9626726&postcount=86
Response to Blaster Master giving him info about the game.

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9626946&postcount=109
Explains again he’s a newbie and doesn’t usually post much.

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9627309&postcount=117
Asks about Mafia acronyms

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9629234&postcount=154
Casts a random vote (for me, interestingly. I had forgotten about this)

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9631846&postcount=184
FOS peekercpa for “putting suspicions on so many different people and voting without any substantial explanation”. (Why not change to a vote?)

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9631854&postcount=186
Explained he missed a post

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9636142&postcount=247
Things he finds interesting about peekercpa

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9636152&postcount=250
Finally switches his vote. Note Koldanar voted for peekercpa first.

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9636609&postcount=260
Apologizes for wrong gender on peekercpa

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9645591&postcount=356
general comments on the strategy and debate topics, criticizing rules of thumb
Day 1 / Day 2 break
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9659712&postcount=474
votes peekercpa again, FOS me over the modkill debacle

Sitnam calls him out for lurking in post 544:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9666929&postcount=544

Ice Cream Man votes for him for lurking in 581:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9670225&postcount=581

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9670409&postcount=588
Apologizes for lurking

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9670909&postcount=593
Disagrees with me re: modkill

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9670909&postcount=593
Mild defense of Blaster Master

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9674250&postcount=650
Unvotes peekercpa, says "I agree. I think there’s not a whole lot to discuss. The focus of suspicion has gone to MTS for bringing up the question of who QoT was protecting if anyone. And like many have hashed and rehashed, its irrelevant and even hurtful to discuss that. It seems like people are just talking for the sake of talking. If not QoT or Menocchio voting patterns, what else can be discuss.

Actually, that makes me realize, very little discussion has been had about the people who started Menocchio’s dogpile, because the MTS discussion has pretty much changed everyone’s focus. I think I will go through the original voting and discussion there."

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9674944&postcount=676
Votes me again re: modkill and Menocchio’s lynch.

End, day 2.


I have a few reasons for this vote. I’ll summarize first.

1 - He’s way too quiet.
2 - He’s way too clean. He’s parroting others’ ideas too much and staying out of arguments.

I’ll take each point one at a time. Obviously, he’s one of our quieter players. That’s not entirely surprising for a newbie, but it’s worth noting that I think a newbie scum would be quieter even than newbie town.

MindWanderer was pretty quiet overall yesterday and he got a bit of heat for it, though not much (one call-out and one later rescinded vote). But, even more than that, he’s been remarkably silent on most topics of interest. An awful lot of his relatively few posts are about nothing particularly germane to what people are arguing about. Most damningly, he was almost completely silent about MadTheSwine, except for one post. Further, he mentioned nothing about Menocchio (though granted this is something of a minor point, as Menocchio didn’t exactly have a ton of votes).

Now, point #2 - he’s too clean. He’s voted only for two people, and those people repeatedly - myself (voted for on 1, 2, 3) and peekercpa (1 and 2). Neither were in lynch jeopardy. This ties in to my previous point as well. Many of the major discussions weren’t touched on at all by Mind Wanderer.

The only thing even approaching sticking his neck out was his vote for me today. This isn’t much for a few reasons. First, he wasn’t first to vote. Second, he’s voted for me many times previously, as noted. Third, he voted for me using no new information, no new analysis - just a repeat of why he voted for me last time, frankly, which is itself a repeat of others’ justification for voting for me (my vote switch from Mad to pedescribe and the modkill debacle).

I’ll also note that he casts a FOS on Nanook of the North Shore, whom I believe is town, for one reason.

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9627089&postcount=111

Nanook of the North Shore starts the game with a vote for MadTheSwine. At this point of course he’s not in communication with scum, if he was scum. So he starts the game by voting for the Lead Assassin? Don’t think so. Nanook sounds like Town to me.

Anyway, it’s no rock solid case, but I think there are enough good reasons to vote. I’m sure some folks will call this an OMGUS vote, but I don’t care - I think it’s right.

I’m heading out now, but, I’ll post one last piece of info before I do. As I was going through posts, I found this by pedescribe:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9636971&postcount=264

This could be considered one potential defense for pedescribe, unless this is the classic “hide one scum in a list of town” tactic." Just something to consider since we now know MadTheSwine’s status.

Ugh, sorry that that quote is kinda messed. Obviously, only the stuff within the quotation marks is is the actual quote.

This is a good point. I’d unvote you, but I never voted for you.

Now what… I guess I’ll wait.

You’ve spent a lot of time paring down what I actually said in order to make your case. I admit, I’ve not been one to go crazy on anyone in particular, but I did make a significant case against peekercpa by going through his votes. I’m not a particular believer in going crazy against someone for no reason, and I’ll once again say, I haven’t seen a whole lot of big scum tells. Maybe my scumdar is broken or something.

Its a classic tactic that MTS even used to make a big post about how some other poster is the true scum once votes pile up against you. If I don’t vote fluiddruid, I would have to vote Nanook. WF’s formula yesterday and shadowfacts arguments regarding you being mafia today were enough, combined with my own suspicions.

I am incredibly suspicious at this point of Nanook of the North Shore, however, it will do us no good to divide our votes and allow the scum to put someone else in place. Nanook was the tiebreaker, and practically expressed glee at making the tie happen. That is a huge scumtell to me.

Now here Nanook unvoted because of MTS’s detective claim. I think its obvious in retrospect, but also sensible before had to not trust a claim that is made with mere minutes left in the day. Imagining for a minute that MTS had been detective, he would have been much better served by claiming earlier. So why would MTS claim so late? Perhaps he had hoped that things would turn around either with scum vote changes or townie vote changes.

Its possible that Nanook innocently revoked his vote on the basis of detective claim, but I don’t think its likely.

This is the snuggle MTS post that breaks the back in my opinion. This is just ludicrous and if its not obvious to everyone why this isn’t good I don’t know what would show it to you.

Finally,

So, I would be happy to vote for Nanook, but I don’t think any other townies have noticed or said anything about him/her yet.

As for lurking, last week I had a lot going on, as I posted once here. I hope to be able to post often this week.

WFTomba

Ok, I see where you are trying to go go with your math but…

Since so many folks had so few votes wouldn’t someone who was switching votes like crazy (read me ) skew the resuts? Maybe that’s where your breakdown is.

So much to cover this morning.

Let’s start with W F Tomba and his magical formula. 20 minutes before the Day ends he drops this big post outlining the 4 people he is sure is scum. The reason is that we acted like a team on Day 1. He doesn’t explain his reasoning, just promises to show us what’s in the magic bag in the morning. Today he sort of explains it, without showing the real math behind it. But there’s a problem with his theory. For it to be accurate we have to assume certain things. For starters, this team of supposed scum would have to have come up with this plan to defend one of their own and implement it without the benefit of talking about it.

It also assumes that a group of veteran players(fluid and Mad) would make the stupidly obvious mistake of acting as a team on Day 1. Both fluid and Mad have been scum before, and I don’t believe either would be stupid enough to make that sort of mistake.

Finally, since it appears to be based on voting and some sort of scoring system, it breaks down majorly here. A lot of the Day 1 votes were random, and therefore null. Did you account for that? Did you account for the fact that my vote for Mennochio made no difference whatsoever? As I stated near the beginning of Day 2, if I am scum, why the hell would I switch my vote near the end of Day 1 to a townie that was going to be lynched no matter what I did? Sure, you could play a WIFOM game here, but it doesn’t seem worth it when I could just avoid suspicision altogether by leaving my vote where it was.

All that said, I’m not commenting on the scum/townie status of the others on the list. I haven’t had a chance to look back with the new information regarding Sitnam and Mad yet. I just wanted to point out that Tomba’s magic bag was full of hot air.

About my unvote of Mad. It came in at 12 minutes til the end of the Day, right as I started to compose a reply similar to the one above to Tomba. I was scrolled down to check on the exact wording of prior posts when I saw it. I had to make a snap decision. Was it the wrong decision? In retrospect obviously it was. I shouldn’t have been so quick to believe him so close to the deadline. The problem was there was no time to go back and see if there were any hints that I missed. Yes, I believed him. And if you all tell me that none of you believed him when you first read it either, I’ll call you a liar. (Except pedescribe, who to be fair did state at the time that he didn’t believe the claim.) It’s real easy to say now that he’s been exposed as a liar that you knew he was lying at the time, but that doesn’t make it true. Further, I wasn’t the only one to believe his claim.

post 690

So I unvote, and now I have less than 10 minutes to decide how to proceed. I don’t have time to look back, or see what other people think, or pretty much anything other than make a decision right now. I decided to force the tie. I was leaning towards believing Mad, and figured a tie is better than a staight lynch. Once that decision is made, I have no choice but to vote the next highest person, pedescribe, who I didn’t think was scum at the time. But, as I stated, better to lynch a vanilla town than the detective. That was my thought process.

Except that’s exactly what happened. Every game I’ve read, with the exception of fluid’s recruitment game, role claims have been accepted something like 90% of the time. And the vast, vast majority of them were true claims. False claiming scum is far less common than paranoia would lead one to believe. Sure, we all remember the times it does happen, like now and Monkgate in the offboard game, but we forget all the times it doesn’t. Classic confirmation bias. So yes, my first instinct was to believe the claim, and there wasn’t enough time to overcome that instinct.

I’d like you to show me why this isn’t good, since I’m not seeing it. Do you disagree with the idea that lynching a vanilla is better than lynching a detective? Put aside for a moment that Mad wasn’t the detective. My thinking at the time was that he was. Do you still think what I said was so horrible?

That’s what you consider to be expressing glee? Really? Because what I was expressing was unsurety about whether or not I had forced a tie. There was a decent amount of voting and unvoting since the last official vote count.

Now that I’ve done some work and had a smoke, it’s time to get my intial vote in.

I’m not down with the fluid train. I had some suspicions of her as scum earlier, but I’m not so sure now. Her argument that attacking Mad all day is somewhat persuasive. Yes, that is the tactic storyteller used in M2, but using that argument here breaks down for two reasons. One, story was the godfather. We don’t know what Lead Assassin is yet, but godfather seems like a safe assumption. If it was the other way around I could buy it. But more importantly, that strategy is very similar to the Third Vote is a Scum Tell idea. It only works when people aren’t aware of it. Since story used it to such spectacular results, it won’t really work again for a while.

Tomba pings me since he’s basically driving the train on Fluid based on a magic bag that doesn’t really hold up under scrutiny. But I’m not willing to vote for him at this time since I’m not confident that it isn’t a case of me reacting in a OMGUS sort of way.

I’m going to vote for zuma. He’s disappeared again, didn’t vote Yesterday, and has a history of erratic behavior that is often anti-town even when he himself is town. It seems to me that there’s a good chance he will turn out to be a liability even if he’s town, and I think that there’s a good chance he’s scum at this point.

Vote Zuma

I guess I’ll have to comment that I didn’t consider it much, since I’m Town. But I’m sure that doesn’t convince many people.

True. Now I will argue that a newbie scum may make the mistake of trying to defend other scum players on Day 1, but frankly neither Mad nor I qualify. I would assume the opposite, in fact - an experienced player is unlikely to bring up scum players very much on Day 1, if at all.

True. The only people I would suspect who would do this would be Masons (if they’re in this game) but even then it’s a stretch. No experienced player with a secret role wants to tip their hat early. It’s a disadvantage to your team.

Ultimately what it comes down to is “lynch people who lynch townies”. That’s not entirely incorrect strategy to a point, but it just breaks down this early in the game. Unless Town gets extraordinarily lucky, they’re just not going to find much during Day 1, so it makes sense for scum to stay the heck out of it. In my own scum game, I thought the biggest mistake I did was being too much of an axeman (cast the third vote for someone on Day 1, that was a mistake) which ended up getting me a lot of attention.

Day 2 is a much different story because the early candidate for lynching was Mad, who is confirmed scum. I just don’t think Day 1 generates a lot of good analysis, and I don’t think that it was entirely wrong to lynch Menocchio - he’s a strong, experienced player that hung back a lot and didn’t say much. He was sick, granted, so it was no sure thing, but I don’t think he was a poor vote candidate. Frankly I’d rather vote the experienced player who lurks than a newbie, at least on Day 1 - an experienced scum player’s going to hurt Town more anyway.

Hey guys.

Just posting to say that I won’t be able to really play today. It’s the 14th and I work for a CPA firm (sort of, I work in buisiness managment but not in the tax department…it’s complicated). The long and the short of it is, while tax season has not personally effected my job before today, I am expecting to have to spend large portions of today putting out fires started by our tax department.

I will have time to read and maybe post a little bit, but I can’t do any analysis until tomorrow, and I think analysis is more necessary than me fluffing up the joint right now.

I will start posting if it looks like I was wrong. :smiley:

Well, Nanook’s sweating a bit now, isn’t he? :smiley:
I just want to point out two things:

  1. Despite his bluster, I have described exactly how my formula worked. I am not concealing any “math”. The only thing I haven’t explained is why I included zuma in my list, and that wasn’t due to the formula. If anyone has a question about how I got my numbers, I will gladly explain.
  2. Anyone else notice that Nanook told me my reasoning was “flawed as hell” before I had even stated my reasoning?

Okay, you’ve piqued my curiousity, so let me try to understand what you’re doing. You’ve done a pairwise analysis here? It sounds like it might be interesting to look at, but I’m not 100% sure how helpful it is at this stage, or even how helpful it is at all. So far, we have 3 pro-town players dead, and 1 scum dead. Of the ones you showed above, only one has known status. From a purely mathematical perspective, you only have one data point, and the rest would be dependant upon how scummy/towny you think those people are, which makes it sort of hazy. It also doesn’t take into account other possibilities. If, by some chance fluiddruid is a mason or detective, she might be helping or hurting them excessively because she knows their identity.

So, it might be interesting to look at, but it’s difficult to discern what the motivation is simply by seeing a helpful or hurtful relationship. Your model doesn’t take into account, AFAICT, if the relationship is lopsided. For instance, one person could do a lot of smudging, and the other player could do nothing, and it would reflect on that player. Do you have some numbers on how much of that that voting was mutual and how much of it came from one person or the other?

All in all, if that’s all you’re going to vote for fluiddruid on, it seems a little weak because, at best, it would seem to indict her as non-vanilla but not necessarily as scum. That said, I’m still most suspicious of her, and I will likely put my vote on her when I finish catching up, unless something new occurs to me between now and then.

No, not really.

Well yes? Any reasoning that concludes that 4 scum, when the game almost certainly has only 4, acted in concert on Day 1 is flawed at the start. Or do you honestly believe that fluid and Mad are bad players that would out themselves on Day 1?

And is that really the entirety of what you have to say? “haha nook is sweating!” and restating what you already said?

A couple points here, and I’m not sure if they’ve been covered or not.

As for why he claimed detective, I think it’s pretty clear. His question about the detective earlier was two-fold. First, it was to raise discussion about the detective and see if they can get a read on him. Second, it could be used as a crumb for his eventual claim. When I saw the initial question about the detective, my initial thought was, as he’s played enough, he knew better than ask that if he was vanilla, so he was either trying to express that he was the detective and had valuable information, or was scum and was hoping an inexperienced detective would accidentally out himself. I had trouble differentiating which motivation seemed more likely (though, as it always seems, in hindsight it’s fairly clear), so I was more interested in seeing how that got played out. So, I think he claimed detective hoping that his initial crumbing would make it believable and, perhaps make the detective slip up, and maybe get pedescribe lynched in his stead.

As for ShadowFacts, we can’t safely make any sort of determination about whether that makes him look good or bad, so I think it’s best to completely ignore it. If ShadowFacts is town, if Mad had survived, he would have gained some trust from him, and look somewhat better if ShadowFacts later turned up dead. If he’s scum as well, it would be an attempt to either make it look good for ShadowFacts when Mad turned up scum. Either way, he pretty much had to name someone for a last minute claim. And, while I think the motivation makes a bit more sense if Shadow is town, we also know that Mad knew his death was likely imminent, so his best strategy is to instill as much confusion into the town as possible, so I don’t think it’s safe to put any kind of merit into this supposed reading.

Interestingly enough, I think the people the events of Yesterday do look good for is you, pedescribe, and NAF, particularly if fluiddruid turns out to be scum as well. If you’d have been lynched, NAF would have been blamed for starting the wagon, and Mad could have claimed he was just a self-preserving detective.

Mad outed himself pretty badly on Day 2, didn’t he?

But what I think happened is that you, peekercpa, and zuma panicked when fluid was on the block and voted to protect her. She probably would have told you to quit if she’d been able to talk to you in private.

So you’re saying there’s 5 scum then? Since we know that Mad is one, that plus me, Zuma, peeker and fluid is 5. I don’t think that is correct. The accepted standard number of scum is 25% or the square root of the total players. We started with 16, so 4 is the perfect number for a back to basics game.

You also still haven’t addressed WHY I would change my vote as a scum when changing it had no effect on the final outcome and has apparently done nothing but draw me heat. What’s my motivation to do so?

I don’t consider five scum out of the question. I also am aware that I may be wrong about one of you.

You are correct; your vote change late in Day 1 had no effect on the final outcome. That’s why it didn’t figure in my calculations.

Then you’re formula makes even less sense. I’m somehow +2 with fluid based on a random vote for Mad and a midday vote switch to peeker? I think I’m over the OMGUS part. At this point I think you’re scum. You haven’t really defended your formula or assumptions at all.

Unvote zuma
Vote WF Tomba