NAF, oh so I guess it was just noise when I asked you what sort of case you have against me, seeing as how you did mention me by name?
Well of the four the one most suspicpicious to me currently is MindWanderer. I ranked who I thought earlier and he was the least because of lack of posting (under the radar) and couldn’t get a read much either way. I also indicated that if that kept up I would “ratchet” up my suspicion level. I has hoped that this would incentivise him to participate more. Hasn’t happened.
I also come back to 786 where he said something of lines of discounting Mad’s lead designation (BlasterMaster did the same thing). Heck, I don’t what in the world could be clearer than leader. It just struck me as the type of innatention to detail that a townie wouldn’t make.
Also, if he doesn’t get in here and start posting he will be modkilled anyways. And if I read the rules correctly he is just removed with no indication of alignment - very bad methinks.
And I still think that a RyJaye lynch makes the most sense but will defer along the lines of NAF1138’s 4/5 threshhold.
[Oog]My wife has been reading along. Last night she had a nightmare about detectives and scum and punched the shit out of me in her sleep. Imagine telling the co-workers about how I got the shiner. No connect whatsoever.
On re-read.
It was me long bus brethren, ShadowFacts that suggested the 4/5 not NAF1138.
That’ what you get from a short busser.
The short bus is awesome. Don’t knock it til ya try it! Seriously.
So is this like a RyJaye or MindWanderer silent vigil?
Given how I screwed up on the fluid lynch, I think I missed the bus. 
Town may be better off doing the exact opposite of what I suggest :smack:
BlaM hasn’t been checking into our Mafia games off site either much, so this absence could be due to Real life perhaps?
Sorry guys, couldn’t check in Tuesday much because I had a deadline at work. And, well, Wednesdays are always bad. I have a hunch on where we might find some clues. I’m going to try and do that now.
The chart below is stolen from Roosh earlier Today, and I’m going to recolor it with the assumption that the Masons, NAF, Ped, and I are all confirmed town, and Ryjae is scum.
Day 1 Final Result : Mennocchio is Townie
2 - bufftabby (WF Tomba, Menocchio)
1 - WF Tomba (pedescribe)
1 - Queen of Town (peekercpa)
2 - MadTheSwine (Sitnam, ShadowFacts)
1 - ShadowFacts (MadTheSwine)
5 - Menocchio (fluiddruid, bufftabby, Roosh, Blaster Master, Nanook of the North Shore)
2 - peekercpa (NAF1138, Mind Wanderer)
1 - fluiddruid (Queen of Town)
1 - No Lynch (Ryjae)
Day 2: Final Result: MAD was the LEAD ASSASSIN
1 - Blaster Master (peekercpa)
5 - pedescribe (NAF1138, Ryjae, fluiddruid, MadTheSwine, Nanook of the North Shore)
5 - MadTheSwine (WF Tomba, Sitnam, ShadowFacts, bufftabby, pedescribe)
2 - fluiddruid (Blaster Master, Mind Wanderer)
1 - No Vote (Roosh)
Day 3 Final Vote: Fluiddruid is Townie
1 - bufftabby (pedescribe)
1 - Roosh (NAF1138)
2 - pedescribe (RyJae, peekercpa)
1 - Mind Wanderer (Nanook of the North Shore)
1 - Nanook of the North Shore (Blaster Master)
5 - fluiddruid (ShadowFacts, Mind Wanderer, WF Tomba, bufftabby, fluiddruid)
1 - No Vote (Roosh)
So, first off, there’s some obvious points of interest here. First, we have one one vote from Roosh… this leaves us with very little to go on with him. Also notice that we have exactly zero known scum on any of the lynch wagons. So, for the unknowns, Roosh and Mind Wanderer have each been on one lynch, Nanook has been on two, and bufftabby has been on all three.
Let’s analyze the remaining from a PRH perspective. Day One is a mark against Mind Wanderer. Looking at Day two, we have marks against bufftabby and Mind Wanderer. For Day 3, there’s not enough information to do anything. So, either way, I’d say PRH is a notch against Mind Wanderer.
Now let’s look at some of the trains. There’s only one unknown on the Mad train, and that is bufftabby. Are we willing to believe the entire train was townie driven and there’s not one scum amongst them trying to get townie cred? Again, same with the fluiddruid train. This looks like a pretty good notch against bufftabby.
So, here’s the most relevant question that I’m going to have to research into… what’s the relative timing and reasoning for bufftabby’s and Mind Wanderer’s votes on Day Two? I’m fairly certain, given the voting record, that at least one of them is scum, and perhaps both, but I’ll have to do some rereading to figure out which one. I’ll probably end the Day with my vote on one of them, so…
Unvote Nanook
Just a real quick rules question. Can dead scum continue to participate in the night time scum disussions?
I would expect that we would find more than just MtS as scum on the pedescribe train. I understand that ryjae is assumed scum for the purposes of that exercise, but I’m not willing to make that particular assignation at the time. I know that scum tend to not to flock together en masse and vote, but I would imagine that more scum than just MtS would have done their best to save the Lead Assassin. You might also want to consider that, up until the last minute, there was one more unknown on that MtS train who could possibly have been trying to gain townie cred as scum: Nanook. If I’m considered a suspect for voting for scum, he certainly should be as well. Or should I have changed my vote at the last minute to try to save MtS to appear more townie?!
Only living scum can privately communicate with each other at Night.
4 - RyJae (RoOsh, pedescribe, peekercpa, Nanook of the North Shore)
1 - Mind Wanderer (ShadowFacts)
2 - Nanook of the North Shore (bufftabby, RyJae)
Another exercise to look for distributions is post counts. For the purposes of this, I’m going to sum the posts of the subs with the person they replaced:
peekercpa 156
Blaster Master 116
ShadowFacts 98
bufftabby 81
NAF1138 80
Nanook 69
RoOsh 61
pedescribe 59
Ryjae 57
MindWanderer 30
*The groupings are my attempts at clustering similar post counts.
A point of note here is that MindWanderer has less posts than MadTheSwine who has been dead for some time; he is the least prolific poster by a long shot. This has been a large part of his under the radar sort of approach. OTOH, bufftabby is the most prolific of the remaining unknowns. Again, from a PRH perspective, this is another notch against both bufftabby and MindWanderer.
I feel a :smack: moment coming on here, but I have to ask: what does PRH stand for? I’ve been trying to figure it out in context from your previous post, but I’m just not getting it.
After looking at BlaM’s nmbers, I think I am convinced that MindWanderer is the way to go.
Vote MindWanderer
Okay, now for the vote time. I’m quite certain that Ryjae’s Miller claim is completely bogus, but I really think it’s in our best interest to leave the decision of confirming that up to the scum for reasons I’ve stated previously. As such, here is my revised scummy list in order of vote preference:
bufftabby, MindWanderer, Nanook, RoOsh
Case for bufftabby: A bad vote record. Particularly of note is her vote for Mad (post 615). At the time this vote was made, there was no suitable alternative to Mad and this looks like trying to justify voting for him so she can gain townie cred. She’s spent a LOT of time snuggling, particularly me. I think reasoning here could be that the scum may have expected I’d get lynched sooner or later so, when I turned up town, it may make her look better. Most of her content has been more rehashing of other people’s posts. I’d say I’m about 80% sure she’s scum.
Case for MindWanderer: Too clean. He hasn’t been participating a whole lot, and actually has about half as many posts as the next player. His vote record looks bad from a PRH perspective. One for of note is his vote for fluiddruid on Day two (post 676). He had no vote before that, and this is soon after Mad’s Detective claim, but he doesn’t weigh in on it AT ALL. Did he buy it, did he not? I think if he were town and bought it, he would have voted for pedescribe. I think if he didn’t buy it, he would have voted for Mad. However, as scum, he knew voting for Mad would have gotten him killed, and voting for pedescribe would have clustered him with two other scum and looked REALLY bad when the identities of either was discovered. I think he was deliberately trying to spread his vote out. I’d say I’m about 70% sure he’s scum.
Case for Nanook: I’ve made this already, but there’s not really a whole lot to add in light of my vote and post count analysis. Feels a lot less scummy to me now. I’d guess about a 35% chance of being scum.
Case for RoOsh: Not a lot to go on. His predecessor left very little. This is a little meta-gamey, but is it possible zuma lost interest because he was Vanilla Town? Not to mention, a number of people have kept pointing fingers at him. He’d seem like a convenient lynch; getting a townie dead, but no one can really blame you for it. Since RoOsh has subbed in, my read on him has been that he’s probably townie. So, I’ll just say straight up, if scum win from WAY underposting and getting a sub at this stage, shame on you! I’d guess about a 15% chance of being scum.
As such, I’m most convinced that bufftabby is scum, but if there isn’t enough certainty to get that lynch, I’m happy to change my vote to MindWanderer. I will not be voting for RoOsh Today, and I think it’s unlikely that I’ll vote for Nanook.
Vote bufftabby
PRH is Pseudo-Random Hypothesis. Basically, it means that scum will attempt to look like they’re randomly distributed, but because it’s pseudo-random and not true random, it will more closely resemble an even distribution. IOW, they’ll tend to be about equally spread out. If we run with the scum as MindWanderer and bufftabby, we get more of an even distribution with Mad and Ryjae, than any other pair amongst the unconfirmed.
Bleached with Clorox 2, the color almost stays.
I am sticking with MindWanderer, though I agree that those 2 are the best suspects. I would rather take MW out as he is being quiet, and I don’t want to continue rewarding that sort of lurkerdom.
Yeah, prolific posting is such a scumtell. You got me. :rolleyes:
Well, I don’t know how much more I’ll be able to post before the Day ends, and it looks like I might get offed. So: when I turn up town, you guys take a look at who’s been pushing the vote against me. Seeing as how the three people who’ve voted for me or discussed voting for me (NAF, BlaM, pedescribe–plus RoOsh, unknown) are currently “confirmed town”, I’d be concerned that there’s something fishy going on there, like the worst-case-scenario fear expressed by RoOsh (who is either damn good at playing Town or is probably really Town). Maybe not. But these will be things you should consider if I am lynched. Don’t let me down, Town. I wanna win this thing, alive or dead!
Come down off the cross, we could use the wood 
You’ve got ONE vote.