Gee, Santo I don’t think Sarah likes you’re idea to get her killed.
I decided to drop the idea of a mass claim on Day 1 but I agree with who ever brought it up (santo?). With the SA dead we don’t have to worry about powers being copied. Since most of the powers are confirmable we can easily check where the scum are hiding.
Ha anyone in here ever played in or heard of a game won by a mass claim?
I’m not saying it can’t be done - but I am a little doubtful
Mass claims have allowed the Town to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in all three no-vanilla games we’ve played so far – but the mass claims occurred late in the game, not on Day 2.
But in order for it to work - everyone must claim right?
From “her” votes today, it doesn’t seem like SC is up for that…
An early mass claim could work in certain circumstances, but I don’t think that games with large numbers of vanillas will work as well.
There’s six vanilla left, and 4 scum. The biggest argument I see against it is that the Jester will know who to try to recruit.
Hey all, haven’t gotten a chance to catch up on posts yet. I am going to be away all day tomorrow (my one month anniversary, we are going to Disneyland!) so my time today is going to be limited because I have to set things up at work to run while I am away tomorrow. Going to try to catch up as best I can at lunch today and post something of substance. Otherwise, see you on Wednesday.
Ah, yes, that makes perfect sense :smack:
Thanks.
I know we’re in love and all OD but I’m not sure if a mass role claim’s a good idea or not. I’m trying to figure it out now.
We’ve got 9 power roles left, 8 if the suicidal vig did kill Sach:
Assuming nobody counter claims any of the above then we’re left with:
6 vanilla scientists
3 vanilla T1000
1 Jester
to choose from amongst who to lynch today.
Sorry, I know I’m probably being obvious to most of you but I’m not used to playing with this many roles so I’m typing out loud.
OK, so if we get it wrong every time and the scum are sucessful every night then they could still win. Plus they’d only go after the people with roles to make sure there was the biggest pool of vanilla left the next Day to hide in leaving our power roles much more vulnerable and the Docs not knowing whether to protect themselves or someone else.
I can’t see that we’d get it wrong every single time though.
So what I’m saying at the end of all that is that I think it might be a good idea but I’d like to hear the other side of the argument too.
Just to remind people, there are in fact only five remaining vanilla Scientists, not six. Both Zsofia and Sachertortewere ordinary Scientists. See post [post=10195229]562[/post].
That makes a difference to those trying to work out whether a mass claim would work or not.
You’re right, my mistake. Now I’m not sure whether that makes a mass claim better or worse. It means the pool the scum could hide in is that much smaller on the one hand. On the other hand I haven’t really taken into account the ramifications of multiple counter claims.
It’s good you pointed that out but do you have an opinion one way or another?
AH,No, I haven’t thought it through yet.
I’m a fairly conservative player. I don’t like taking unnecessary risks. I’m most likely to go along with a mass claim in two cases; where the balance of evidence shows that the claims will narrow the pool of unknowns in which the scum can hide to the point where we can successfully lynch, and where the Town has to do something radical or lose.
I don’t see that the game is in either situation yet, primarily because the scum don’t have to claim Ordinary Scientist. If we could rely on them doing so, then a mass claim works - if nine people say they’re Ordinary Scientists, at most five can be right, so we lynch into that pool.
There are, however, some power roles that the scum could claim. Now I don’t see a claim of Sarah Connor being successful; half the town would be baying for the claimants blood before the pixels were dry on the claim post. But there are some roles (you’ll pardon me if I refuse to say how many, or which ones) that the scum might successfully claim without necessarily being insta-lynched.
Something just occurred to me. The Jester might risk a claim of Sarah in order to get lynched This would not be a good move; the real Sarah could counterclaim and suicide, proving their claim. Thereafter, the Jester would become this game’s Drain Bead - everyone knows they are scum, but no-one wants to lynch them right now. When the number of players drops below the Jester’s recruitment threshold is the time to take the lynch.
(Drain Bead was outed as a Werewolf in Conspiracy 2 on Day 6 or so, but was ignored as a lynch candidate for two Days in the interests of hunting other flavours of scum.)
Good grief, it has all gone quiet.
Time for some scattergun thoughts in the short time I have on Day 2.
Last Nights Kills: It looks like we had a Vig on the loose. Will they ever learn?
There are other scenarios I can think of which will render this false, slightly longer shot but still valid. eg. JC hits the Paranoid Doc’s “patient”.
Mass Role Claim: My thoughts are that at this point in time it is a bad idea. Why give the Jester the opportunity to choose which player and role to recruit to the best effect for the scum. A better idea might be to mass role claim either once the Jester is dead or if there are less than 12 people left and the jester has not been killed. At that point, the recruit is no longer an option and it will be a straight numbers game if needs be.
Do you think it’s worth giving it a shot?
Another thing to think of, if this Vig actually works just like Pleo’s Vig is that he should claim, now. It’d give our Doc the opportunity (if he so chose) to protect the Vig from the self-vigging tonight.
I’m not saying the Doc necessarily should then go and protect a Vig who’s already shown bad judgment, but if we don’t do that, we lose a second Townie to a bad-Vig mistake.
<sigh>
So here’s the thing. I kind of hate the mass claim idea from a fun standpoint. I forget who it was that said this in a previous game, but somehow it grates on me, because I feel like if we mass claim and it leads to a win it won’t really be a fun game.
On the other hand… well, when I was much younger, the big hit football game was Tecmo Bowl. And if you played with the Oakland Raiders, they had a running back (Bo Jackson - everyone remember him?) who, if you called his play, was pretty much unstoppable. If you knew how to do it, there was no way to defend it. If you played with the Raiders, you could call the same play with Bo Jackson every time, and your opponent could KNOW that you were going to do it, and it didn’t matter. My friends and I always played where we’d select our team at random pre-game. If you drew the Raiders, you could win easily by running Bo Jackson every time. Not fun. But not running Bo Jackson wasn’t fun either, because you aren’t really playing if you don’t use your weapons, and since you only had four plays to begin with… voluntarily surrendering the use of one of them gave your opponent a HUGE advantage.
So here’s the upshot: With the T-1000 dead, I think a mass role claim (with an exception, shortly to be discussed) would be a huge net benefit. It might win the game close to on its own, unless the scum guess well. Consider:
Right now, by my count, there are 14 Town players versus 4 scum remaining. Under normal circumstances (and assuming no protects and no extra kills), we’d have four free mislynches; we lose after our fifth. There will be NO pro-Scum extra kills, now that the T-1000 is dead, as long as our Suicidal Vig keeps it in his/her pants and isn’t already about to suicide (here’s hoping). So we have a minimum of four free mislynches. That’s a minimum.
Suppose we mass claim. Those four scum will have to hide somewhere. If all of them pick power roles to hide in, then the game is over (barring Jester interference). We’d lynch one of each paired claimant, then lynch the other on the following Day if we get it wrong. Since we can mislynch four times and still win, the scum cannot win in this scenario except by recruiting (which of course we’ll have to deal with, but mass claiming won’t matter much in that context).
If all the scum claim vanilla, then they can still technically survive. We’d have a pool of nine players, four of them scum, so technically if we mislynched every single time, we’d lose. But pulling four out of nine wouldn’t be all that hard. What’s more, since every one is “vanilla,” it would massively tilt the balance of the game in favor of our power roles. The regular Doc wouldn’t bother to protect a Vanilla, because the Scum would be CRAZY to kill a vanilla if that’s their only cover. He wouldn’t have to protect the Commuter. The role blocker would target a vanilla, with a 1/9 chance of hitting the designated killer - and that chance increases as long as the game continues. The Paranoid Doc could do the same, and increase the chances of hitting the designated killer even further.
Recruitment would still hurt, but overall? As far as I see it, we’d be flat out stupid not to mass claim right now. It will dramatically increase our chances of identifying baddies, force the scum to make a decision about how to handle the claim without consulting on it, increase the effectiveness of our power roles, and really not benefit the scum. Given the numbers involved, all those Town power roles are basically just MacGuffins. If we lose nothing but power roles it doesn’t matter, as long as we don’t mislynch more than four times.
WE SHOULD DEFINITELY CLAIM.
With one exception: I think the Suicidal Vig should claim vanilla, and be given a “lying” pass for it. (S)he will be reasonably safe within the vanilla pool (again, if the Scum go fishing in that pool, they’ll be risking their own lives). From that pool, the S.V. can kill anyone definitively outed as scum (if there are two John Connor claimants, and we lynch one and it’s John Connor, then the S.V. has a prime target).
I know this isn’t palatable, in some ways, and I know that mass claims have been viewed as a bad idea in the past, but with the death of the T-1000, this is Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl.
This is huge.
I don’t understand why the SV should claim Vanilla, though.
Unless the scum can talk during the Day, but in that case mass-claiming toDay isn’t any worse than mass claiming later on.
Well, from my perspective, the Suicidal Vig is our best tool in the event of a mass claim, but only if (s)he can stay alive long enough to get definite information on which to act. Under this plan, we’re trying to manage the numbers to maximize our chances of winning; if the SV kills a Townie, it costs us a full mislynch, so we don’t want to Suicidal Vig acting on a hunch, even a strong hunch. But neither do we want the S.V. dead right now, since if definite scum is uncovered the S.V. is our best weapon for handling him or her.
If the S.V. claims vanilla, (s)he will be in a pool of players that the Scum will not target (well, they might, but they’d be handing us the game if they do). There is some risk that the Role Blocker or Paranoid Doc might target the S.V., but the S.V. could always just claim right before Dusk of the Night he plans to take out definite scum. But otherwise, the S.V. can sit quietly and bide time, knowing that (s)he will not be a Scum target for quite some time.