I disagree that we should be trying to find the recruited scum first. Let’s flush out the original scum, and then go from there. It’d be pretty dumb to lynch **MHaye **and find out he’s telling the truth when we have a 50/50 chance of catching scum in the remaining Vanilla pool.
Not only would it be a stupid move, but it gives the other two Vanilla another Day to hide, and narrows the pool the scum are hunting in at Night. Bad play, man, bad play.
Whoops - sorry about that!
Sorry to see you go **Total Lost **
So what do we have left
Vanilla
CatInASuit
Zeriel
Santo Rugger
ShadowFacts
Possible Power role Jester
Oredigger77 - Paranoid Doc
Mhaye - Sarah Connor
OneandOnlyWanderers - Commuter
Rysto - Bus Driver
Town
Almost Human - Has used vote purchase after Jester killed.
DiggitCamera - Night Killed after Jester lynched and not counter claimed.
We could have 2-3 scum in the vanilla pool, 2 scum + possible jester, with 0-1 scum in the power role pool, possible jester and I reckon two confirmed town.
Time to go and reread through the other vanilla posts again, do some analysis and see if there is anything of note pops out. Much as I hate to agree with Santo Rugger, I think our best option is to run through the vanilla pool.
I am in the Netherlands with work, but I am flying home on Wednesday. I will contribute before end of day.
Well I’m sorry to see TL go but glad pede managed to get in some girl on girl necrophiliacal action in - a game just isn’t the same without it!
Anyway, hope nobody put their backs out carrying me back to the lava room.
ToDay I’ve bought Shadow Facts. Not for any particular reason other than it seemed the best idea to buy someone from the vanilla pool and he’s the name my pin stuck in. Also with the back and forth between him and Santo I figure one of them is probably scum.
I’ll have a proper read this evening and post more either then or tomorrow.
I’m off to Blackpool on Thursday till Sunday so I’ll make sure I get my votes in in plenty of time.
I’m playing my gut right now–it’s been a lot more accurate than my head overall in these games. If there’s no consensus on MHaye I’ll move my vote away from him–and I’m not arguing that it’s the best lynch idea at this time, if that makes sense, I’m just of the opinion that it’s a decent idea.
Your point about narrowing the pool the scum are hunting in is well-taken, though at this point since MHaye is either the jester or effectively vanilla, I had been mentally moving him halfway to the vanilla pool. I realize that he’s not a member of the pool for statistical reasons–he’s sorta his own statistical group now.
We are at a point in the game where votes are going to start to matter, I think all three votes need to be on suspected scum. Otherwise we are never going to be able to find the joker’s convert. We know there are two scum in the vanilla pool so I propose that no one votes for more then two of them. Yes, I realize that there could be a third in there but if we require one vote in the power pool then we can start feeling out where people want this game to end up. To that effect;
Vote 1: SantoSomething about him has been pegging me as too town, from his vote for me idea to his spat with Shadow.
Vote 2: ZerielI voted for Shadow as my number two from the vanilla pool because I didn’t have a good read on any of them, and I still don’t have anything beyond a feeling, so just to keep things diffrent I’m moving Z up onto the list
Vote 3: RystoI think that Mhaye is just to obvious in his potential scummiesness. How would the scum have known that he could drive himself insane? The rest of us sure didn’t. With out this he is an obviously confirmable role and so not a good choice. I think that selecting between the two roles that are hard to verify would have been their best choice. Rysto would have had the perfect cover because scum could always target the second person so both die and we couldn’t resolve him with a vig.
To be clear:
Vote 1: Santo
Vote 2: Zeriel
Vote 3: Rysto
I’m pretty sure pede said that earlier in the game.
I didn’t know that she could drive herself insane and apparently Diggit and Rysto didn’t know it either and while yes Pede did answer the question earlier it was still well after the jester’s choice was made.
Why do you have your number one vote on somebody who you won’t argue is the best idea for a lynch at this time?
Because I think it’s the right move but it’s based on my gut feeling telling me it’s so. I have no rational argument so I’m not trying to convince any further than I have. At the same time, I’m comfortable enough with it to go on the permanent record with it.
It’s also moveable if it doesn’t look like MHaye is going to be a plausible lynch.
Vote Count!
Complete Votes:
Zeriel: 1. Mhaye, 2. CatInASuit, 3. Santo Rugger
Santo Rugger: 1. Shadow Facts, 2. CatInASuit, 3. Zeriel
Oredigger77: 1. Santo Rugger, 2. Zeriel, 3. Rysto
Totals:
Santo Rugger: (4) (Oredigger 1st, Zeriel 3rd)
CatInASuit: (4) (Santo Rugger 2nd, Zeriel 2nd)
Mhaye: (3) (Zeriel 1st)
Shadow Facts: (3) (Santo Rugger 1st)
Zeriel: (3) (Oredigger 2nd, Santo Rugger 3rd)
Rysto: (1) (Oredigger 3rd)
Sorry I’ve been quiet so far toDay. AH has indeed purchased my vote, so I’ll be doing her bidding today (rrowr!). Nevertheless, I will be preparing a list of the 3 people I find the most suspicious, just so that will be on the record.
For now, I wanted to comment on this:
I tend to agree with **Oredigger **that **MHaye **would not have been a good choice for scum, as he had the potential to render all the Town power roles powerless. Or, if not that, he might have suicided to prevent that, which would have been one less kill for them. Of course, because it was so unlikely, they may have gone for it as a stealth maneuver, but that’s WIFOM. My gut says the odds are against it.
And if it does look like MHaye is going to be a plausible lynch? You’re willing to lead the bandwagon on the small chance that he might be recruited scum, instead of based on a (what you’d know if you were town) minimum 2/3 chance of bagging scum by going for somebody in the Vanilla pool who’s not yourself? I can understand going with your gut, but you supposedly have a 17 percent better chance of knowing who the remaining two scum are (50 percent for the rest of the townies, compared to 67 percent for whomever the other Vanilla is). I don’t like it one bit.
Before I forget this:
Now… let’s suppose for argument’s sake the Jester converted Almost Human. To cover for her lost power, she would need to buy the votes of… scum, wouldn’t she?
If my argument is right, our remaining scum have just outed themselves.
However, I do agree: let’s not try to find the converted scum on first try. I think our best way of doing this would be:
1. Vote ShadowFacts
2. Vote CatinASuit
3. Vote Almost Human
Well not me for starters. DiggitCamara - I suggest you go back and check your logic again.
The first Day after the Jester lynch she bought the vote of Oredigger.
Your theory, that as scum, she has only picked scum after being Jestered, doesn’t work. Would you care to explain how both of them can be scum, as this would involve two Jesters one for **Almost Human **and one for Oredigger77, in order for this to work.
If Almost Human was jestered, how did she buy **Oredigger’s **vote, as he would have been town.
If **OreDigger77 **was jestered, then **Almost Human **is confirmed town.
Sorry, but **Almost Human **is pretty much on the confirmed list unless you can show otherwise. If I have missed some combination which means she is not confirmed, please tell me.
Much as I’d like to slap our vig for that CIAS seems to have answered for me.
Weirdly Diggit and I seem to be the only ones who are confirmed out of everyone.
OAOW I don’t see a way to confirm as he just hides.
Rysto could confirm himself by making me switch my vote candidate to someone else.
OD can be confirmed by blocking me (obviously they can’t both do that on the same Night).
MHaye can’t be confirmed.
Re the MHaye thing - well we just don’t know. It’s no more likely he’s been Jestered as anyone else at the end of the Day so I’d rather concentrate on the vanilla pool.
Problem is I haven’t a clue. The Santo/Shadow Facts back and forth could just as easily be two town arguing with each other. Same with the Santo/Zeriel thing. Santo isn’t very good at looking innocent whatever side he’s on so that doesn’t help. And I don’t have any sort of read on CIAS.
Gotta get back to work but I’ll vote later on today.
Oredigger was confirmed when he saved Diggit from self mutilation.
Ah, ok. There was talk of Total Lost protecting Diggit as well yesterDay and I got it into my head that that’s what happened.
In that case Rysto can confirm himself toNight then we’d only have to choose between OAOW and MHaye on who’s been jesterised once we’ve finished with the vanilla pool.
Just checking in quickly at work. I probably won’t have much time to post until tonight.
[quote=“Almost_Human, post:1417, topic:461699”]
Rysto could confirm himself by making me switch my vote candidate to someone else./QUOTE]
This is an excellent idea. Buy my vote toNight and I’ll redirect it onto somebody in the vanilla pool. If the scum try to target me toNight, they either kill a vanilla player who’s providing them with cover or a scum dies.
Don’t make the mistake of assuming that the jestered scum must have been a power role. He or she could be in the vanilla pool. Making assumptions can be deadly in this game.