Hey Santo.
Back in [post=10308155]post 1400[/post] you said you were going to put together something outlining your suspicions regarding the recruit by Tuesday.
Well? Where is it? Tuesday was yesterday you know.
Vote count to come in a bit.
Also, we have returned to a normal schedule, which we should be following to the game’s end (unforseen consequences notwithstanding), that is,
Days end at Noon Friday EST
Nights end at Noon Sunday EST
Vote Count!
Complete Votes:
Zeriel: 1. Mhaye, 2. CatInASuit, 3. Santo Rugger
Santo Rugger: 1. Shadow Facts, 2. CatInASuit, 3. Zeriel
Oredigger77: 1. Santo Rugger, 2. Zeriel, 3. Rysto
DiggitCamera: 1. ShadowFacts, 2. CatInASuit, 3. AH
Almost Human: 1. ShadowFacts, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. Zeriel
Totals:
Shadow Facts: (9) (Santo Rugger 1st, Diggit Camera 1st, AH 1st)
CatInASuit: (6) (DiggitCamera 2nd, Santo Rugger 2nd, Zeriel 2nd)
Santo Rugger: (6) (Oredigger 1st, AH 2nd, Zeriel 3rd)
Zeriel: (4) (Oredigger 2nd, Santo Rugger 3rd, AH 3rd)
Mhaye: (3) (Zeriel 1st)
Rysto: (1) (Oredigger 3rd)
AH: (1) (DiggitCamera 3rd)
AH has spoken:
Vote 1 Zeriel
Vote 2 Santo
Vote 3 Shadow Facts
Yeah… about that…
A) I’m a lazy fucker.
B) I didn’t have work on Monday (Columbus Day), so I’ve spent quite a bit of time catching up on work assignments. That we’re trying to get out by the deadline.
C) Also, since I didn’t have work on Monday, I didn’t do my homework at work on Monday like I usually do, so the day was even more crammed.
D) I’m a really lazy fucker.
E) It really sucks to do it on my laptop, instead of at work where I have dual 24" monitors.
Lame, I know, I’ll try to get to it tomorrow. If it keeps me from getting lynched, great, but if I’m lynched Today anyway, I think I owe it to the Town. This is a critical point in the game, so having a confirmed (when I die) Townie’s posts to look back on in one lump sum ought to help out a bit. But the other side of me (and the side Shadow and others have pointed out) is that, it doesn’t matter very much, because if I’m gone Today, you guys will still have a 2/3 chance of lynching scum Tomorrow as long as you stick in the Vanilla pool.
OK back from the Netherlands (who have much milder weather in Nijmegen than I’m getting in Bolton… anyways
going to have to go with the vanilla pool today for obvious reasons and so
vote 1. Zeriel
With 2 scum in the pool, and each vanilla townie knowing their own alignment they have amazing odds of hitting a scum, so, like Santo, I am suspicious of the vanilla who is fishing outside the pool.
I think one of Santo & Shadow are scum also, which means I am leaning towards CIAS being town.
**vote 2 Shadowfacts
vote 3 Santo**
Heh, from my point of view it makes sense, but I’m also an unorthodox player and it gets me lynched or nightkilled midgame, depending on whether town takes me seriously or not, all the time. It’s not as though I’m not also fishing in the vanilla pool, after all–I’m just not doing it with my primary vote. I stand by both of my secondaries.
I suppose part of it is that between the fact that I’m one of the four fish in the vanilla pond and (admittedly out of game) events in the offboard game, I’m not particularly concerned anymore with how much suspicion I generate. That said,
unvote:
- Mhaye
- CatInASuit
- Santo Rugger
vote:
- CatinASuit
- Santo Rugger
- Mhaye
From my perspective, in this voting environment: same thing, with changed emphasis.
You know what I don’t like? I don’t like people casting votes for three vanillas with their three votes. That’s uncomfortably wussy, unless you explicitly say that you think that last vote is for the convert, who you suspect of being in the vanilla pool because of reason X.
There are two known scum in the vanilla pool. There is one convert in an unknown location. I will find it suspicious, when hunting that convert, if you cast a vote for three vanillas on the basis of “fishing in the pool” and don’t have at least your lowest-ranked vote on someone who you believe is the convert based on behavioral changes.
Apologies all,
I will get some reading done and vote before end of Day. 
Says the guy who has two third-place votes on him. 
There’s two schools of thought, really. One has already been brought up; that is, you should use your third vote as a slightly more powerful FOS. However, what’s to stop scum from picking that single FOS esentially randomly? I don’t think we’ll get as much information out of that as if everybody concentrates their efforts on the Vanilla scum. I think how people, especially previously confirmed Townies, vote for outing the scum in this pond will be a lot more telling. In other words, if everybody uses their three votes for the Vanilla pool, I’m guessing the converted scum will put at least one of the scum in the third position. Probably not anymore now that I’ve said that, but it’s something to think about.
Now, I know that goes against what I said earlier about reasonings not mattering, but I still feel that, at this point in the game, being in the Vanilla pool, it matters much less for me and the (probable) other Townie, because we’re 99% not going to be around when the game ends up three handed, which it almost inevitably will.
I have a few first-place ones on me that are of slightly more concern. 
I personally think the 3rd-place vote is so weak it pretty much should be treated as a FOS except in highly exceptional situations. The biggest problem with articulating a “scum will likely do this” plan as opposed to a “town should probably see why this makes sense” is that scum don’t do what you tell them to.
Ehh, difference of opinion. However, since you’re most likely scum, I don’t mind having a different opinion than you. However, can you please elaborate on these “highly exceptional situations” you speak of.
I know “scum will likely do this” plans don’t work, hence the “probably not anymore now that I’ve said that,” part of my post.
A “Highly Exceptional Situation” would be a case where the town is deeply divided enough that the third-place votes can accumulate enough to override a majority of first-place votes. I don’t see this as happening very often–we’ve got a clear direction to go as town, even if variations differ, so it seems likely that if it happens it will happen tonight when everyone’s voting for at least two of the same four people, which is another reason I’m twitchy about the third-place votes in general–seems way too easy for the scum to nudge things deniably towards mislynches with lower-ranked votes if there’s no stigma to throwing all three of said votes in the vanilla pool.
I’m not following you. Why wouldn’t I want to vote for the three of you, when I know at least two of you are scum? Why wouldn’t a confirmed townie want to vote for three of us, when they know at least two of us are scum? If enough third place votes need to be accumulated to override first place votes, as in your example, why wouldn’t people just change their vote to, say, their first place vote. Doesn’t make sense to me.
Vote Count!
Complete Votes:
Zeriel: 1. CatInASuit, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. Mhaye
Santo Rugger: 1. Shadow Facts, 2. CatInASuit, 3. Zeriel
Oredigger77: 1. Santo Rugger, 2. Zeriel, 3. Rysto
DiggitCamera: 1. ShadowFacts, 2. CatInASuit, 3. AH
Almost Human: 1. ShadowFacts, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. Zeriel
Shadow Fact: 1. Zeriel, 2. Santo, 3. Shadow Facts
OaOW: 1. Zeriel, 2. Shadow Facts, 3. Santo
Totals:
Shadow Facts: (12) (Santo Rugger 1st, Diggit Camera 1st, AH 1st, OaOW 2nd, Shadow Facts 3rd)
Zeriel: (10) (Shadow Facts 1st, OaOW 1st, Oredigger 2nd, Santo Rugger 3rd, AH 3rd)
Santo Rugger: (10) (Oredigger 1st, Shadow Facts 2nd, AH 2nd, Zeriel 2nd, OaOW 3rd)
CatInASuit: (7) (Zeriel 1st, DiggitCamera 2nd, Santo Rugger 2nd)
Mhaye: (1) (Zeriel 3rd)
Rysto: (1) (Oredigger 3rd)
AH: (1) (DiggitCamera 3rd)
Because the fact is that a lot of people in this game, myself included, have seemed to be acting like the 1st vote is the one that matters and the lower ones are of less concern. I think it’s far more likely that our scum will try to work the vote, if they choose to do so, with their lower-ranked “suspicion” votes than their top “lynch him today” vote.
BTW, I keep forgetting to mention this even though I noted it mistaken upthread, but I’m a dude. Z is a He, they rhyme.
So does “Z is a she.” 
To business.
To vote or not to vote?
That isn’t the question; the question is, who do I vote for?
We currently have 10 players left in the game. I’m not suspicious of myself, so the three Mafiates must be in the remaining 9.
We can exclude from consideration the power roles who have demonstrably used their abilities since Night 3; Almost Human, DiggitCamara and Oredigger77.
We have a pool of four claimed vanilla scientists; CatInaSuit, Santo Rugger, Shadowfacts and Zeriel. The remaining two players who began the game as T-1000s, are hiding in this pool.
The recruit may be in the vanilla pool, or one of the remaining unconfirmed power roles; that is, OaOW or Rysto. (I’m aware that to others I belong in this list, but as I said above, I know I’m a Townsperson, so I’m excluding myself from an analysis intended to help me decide who to vote for.)
Since we can’t be sure that the recruit was in the list of surviving unverified power roles, I’m going to exclude OaOW and Rysto from consideration Today. By Tomorrow, we should have some data on Rysto’s status; we’ll have to consider the issue of the recruit soon.
The two who have pinged me most are Santo Rugger and Zeriel. Santo has been somewhat lassaiz-faire in his approach to this game. In an earlier Day he “couldn’t be bothered” to provide justification for his votes, and Today he promised some thoughts he has not delivered. There was also a statement he made in post [post=]1281[/post] that caught my eye; because it’s simply not true that we have two mislynches left.
Assuming that the T-1000s Night plans go without a hitch (ie that they successfully kill each Night), if we mislynch twice we lose. We’re currently at 7/3; a mislynch Today and Nightkill means we go to 5/3. At that point, we’re at LyLo unless one of our power roles manages to pull a no-kill Night out of their hat.
As for Zeriel, much of the suspicion I had for him is a carry-over from the actions of his in-role predecessor, who took some actions in Day 2 that weren’t helpful to the strategy then being developed. I’ve thrown votes both their ways in earlier Days, although they’ve never been my number 1 suspect any Day. What I did find suspicious about Zeriel Today was his willingness to pursue the recruit when we have little remaining room for error, and when, if he’s Town, his chances of selecting a T-1000 from the vanilla pool were 2 in 3. He’s backed off now, but I found the willingness to take a gamble now, when Night actions might well eliminate suspects from the recruit pool, raised my suspicions again.
The problem with any vote I make for Zeriel Today is that it can be perceived as OMGUS. All I do is point to the fact that I’ve voted for him three Days out of five, although the Day 2 record was lost when we turned on Flyfisheron to ensure we learned his role.
I have been through the posts made by CIAS and ShadowFacts in the past two weeks. Firstly CIAS : [post=10312929]1421[/post] made me a little suspicious, because it stirred the pot a bit by raising the possibility of an action fouling up the intended scheme of confirmation actions. I’d dismissed the idea myself mainly because the idea had been raised and strongly advised against the previous Day; advice which Total Lost did agree to take. Against this ping, he set Diggit right when Diggit floated the misguided hypothesis that Almost Human had been recruited. It’s in the T-1000s interests to let that idea float uncorrected for a while. The only other thing about CIAS that has caught my notice is that he’s been unusually quiet.
ShadowFacts. Where CIAS toyed with the idea of trying to settle the NAF/Oredigger question at the end of Day 4, but decided that waiting for info was better, ShadowFacts voted in an attempt to resolve the question.
So where does that leave me?
It leaves me with two players, both of whom I have been suspicious of (and voted for) in earlier Days, and two who I have had little or no suspicion of, both of whom have a slight pointer of suspicion against them. One of those two has dispelled a bit of confusion, the other has not.
I think that, right this minute, Santo Rugger’s lassaiz-faire attitude, which is at odds with what I remember of his playstyle in other games (whether Town or not) is nagging at me the most.
Vote
1. Santo Rugger.
2. Zeriel.
3. ShadowFacts.
Sorry that I’ve been so quiet toDay. Although I haven’t said much toDay, I have been productive. I’ve been looking at the vote counts trying to ferret out the scum in the vanilla pool. There’s a huge mess of data so it’s taken some time for me to get a handle on all of it. First, the raw data:
Day 1
Votes:
CatInASuit: 1. Santo Rugger, 2. Zsofia, 3. peeker
Storyteller: 1. NBC, 2. NAF, 3. peeker
Zeriel: 1. Zsofia, 2. peeker, 3. Santo Rugger
Diggit Camera: 1. Almost Human, 2. NBC, 3. CatInASuit
Zsofia: 1. NBC, 2. Peeker, 3. Thing Fish
Thing Fish: 1. Zsofia, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. NBC
NAF: 1. Sach, 2. Zsofia, 3. Almost Human
Almost Human: 1. DiggitCamera, 2. Flyfisheron, 3. Total Lost
Santo Rugger: 1. DiggitCamera, 2. ShadowFacts, 3. Zsofia
Total Lost: 1. Zsofia, 2. peeker 3. DiggitCamera
NBC: 1. Zsofia, 2. Storyteller, 3. peeker
Digger: 1. NBC, 2. Flyfisheron, 3. Squidio
Rysto: 1. Zsofia, 2. NBC, 3. CatInASuit
Peeker: 1. Sach, 2. Rysto, 3. Storyteller
Shadow Facts: 1. Zsofia, 2. Almost Human, 3. peeker
Sach: 1. NAF, 2. Mhaye, 3. Squidio
Squidio: 1. Santo Rugger, 2. NAF, 3. CatInASuit
Koldy: 1. Sach, 2. Koldy, 3. Zsofia
Mhaye: 1. NBC, 2. peeker, 3. Zsofia
Blaster Master: 1. peeker, 2. Digger 3. Mhaye
Sarah Connor is currently intimidtating anyone voting for CatInASuit.
Totals:
Zsofia: (25) (Zeriel 1st, Shadow Facts 1st, Rysto 1st, Thing Fish 1st, Total Lost 1st, NBC 1st, NAF 2st, CatInASuit 2nd, Santo Rugger 3rd, Koldy 3rd, Mhaye 3rd)
NBC: (17) (Mhaye 1st, Zsofia 1st, Storyteller 1st, Digger 1st, Rysto 2nd, Diggit Camera 2nd, Thing Fish 3rd)
Peeker: (14) (BlaM 1st, Total Lost 2nd, Zsofia 2nd, Mhaye 2nd, Zeriel 2nd, Storyteller 3rd, CatInASuit 3rd, NBC 3rd, Shadow Facts 3rd)
Santo Rugger: (9) (Squidio 1st, CatInASuit 1st, Thing Fish 2nd, Zeriel 3rd)
Sach: (9) (Koldy 1st, NAF 1st, peeker 1st)
NAF: (7) (Sach 1st, Storyteller 2nd, Squidio 2nd)
Diggit Camera: (7) (Almost Human 1st, Santo Rugger 1st, Total Lost 3rd)
Almost Human: (6) (Diggit Camera 1st, Shadow Facts 2nd, NAF 3nd)
Storyteller: (4) (NBC 2nd, Storyteller 3rd, peeker 3rd)
Flyfisheron: (4) (Almost Human 2nd, Digger 2nd)
Mhaye: (3) (Sach 2nd, BlaM 3rd)
Rysto: (2) (peeker 2nd)
Squidio: (2) (Digger 3nd, Sach 3rd)
Digger: (2) (BlaM 2nd)
ShadowFacts: (2) (Santo Rugger 2nd)
Koldy: (2) (Koldy 2nd)
Total Lost: (1) (Almost Human 3rd)
Thing Fish: (1) (Zsofia 3rd)
Day 2
CIAS: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. NBC
NBC: 1. Storyteller 2. CIAS 3. Zeriel
Boozahol: 1. Zeriel, 2. Flyfisheron, 3. NBC
Zeriel: 1. NBC, 2. NAF, 3. Flyfisheron
NAF: 1. Zeriel 2. NBC 3. Flyfisheron
Almost Human: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. Shadow Facts, 3. Pollux Oil
Oredigger77: 1. NBC 2. Pollux 3. Diggit
OAOW: 1. NBC 2. Zeriel 3. Flyfisheron
Diggit Camera: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. Shadow Facts, 3. Pollux Oil
Pollux Oil: 1. NBC, 2. Zeriel, 3. Flyfisheron
Mhaye: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. CatInASuit, 3. Almost Human
Rysto: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. Zeriel, 3. Shadow Facts
peeker: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. NBC, 3. Story
Santo Rugger: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. Zeriel, 3. NBC
Total Lost: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. Pollux Oil, 3. Diggit Camera
Story: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. Rysto, 3. NBC
Shadow Facts: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. OAOW, 3. AH
No incomplete currently.
Special Effects:
OAOW has +3 due to modslap.
Sarah Connor is intimidating Santo Rugger
Flyfisheron: (36) (Shadow Facts 1st, Storyteller 1st, CIAS 1st, Rysto 1st, AH 1st, Total Lost, Mhaye 1st, peeker 1st, Diggit Camera 1st, Boozy 2nd, Zeriel 3rd, NAF 3rd, Santo 3rd, OAOW 3rd, Pollux Oil 3rd)
NBC: (20) (Pollux Oil 1st, OAOW 1st, Oredigger77 1st, Zeriel 1st, NAF 2nd, CIAS 3rd, Peeker 2nd, Boozy 3nd, Santo 3rd, Storyteller 3rd)
Zeriel: (16) (Boozy 1st, NAF 1st, Rysto 2nd, Santo 2nd, OaOW 2nd, Pollux Oil 2nd, NBC 3rd)
Pollux Oil: (6) (Total Lost 2nd, Oredigger77 2nd, DiggitCamera 3rd, AH 3rd)
Santo Rugger: (5) (CIAS 2nd, Sarah Connor Special Effect)
Shadow Facts: (5) (AH 2nd, Diggit Camera 2nd, Rysto 3rd)
OaOW: (5) (Shadow Facts 2nd, Modslap)
Storyteller: (4) (NBC 1st, peeker 3rd)
CIAS: (4) (NBC 2nd, Mhaye 2nd)
Diggit: (2) (Total Lost 3rd, Oredigger77 3rd)
NAF: (2) (Zeriel 2nd)
Rysto: (2) (Story 2nd)
Almost Human: (2) (Shadow Facts 3rd, Mhaye 3rd)
Day 3
Complete Votes:
CatInASuit: 1. Zeriel, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. NBC
Almost Human: 1. NBC, 2. Diggit, 3. Pollux Oil
NBC: 1. NBC, 2. Diggit, 3. Pollux Oil
Zeriel: 1. CatInASuit, 2. Oredigger77, 3. Zeriel
Pollux Oil: 1. NBC, 2. Zeriel, 3. Pollux Oil
Oredigger77: 1. Zeriel, 2. NBC, 3. Pollux Oil
NAF: 1. NBC, 2. Diggit, 3. Pollux Oil
Boozy Squid: 1. Zeriel, 2. NBC, 3. Diggit
S. Rugger: 1. NBC, 2. Zeriel, 3. CatInAThis
DiggitCamera: 1. Zeriel, 2. Shadow Facts, 3. Pollux Oil
OaOW: 1. NBC, 2. Zeriel, 3. Pollux Oil
Total Lost: 1. Pollux Oil, 2. Zeriel, 3. NBC
Shadow Facts: 1. NBC, 2. S. Rugger, 3. Rysto
MHaye: 1. NBC, 2. S. Rugger, 3. Zeriel
Rysto: 1. Shadow Facts, 2. S. Rugger, 3. Storyteller
Extra Effects:
Sarah Connor is currently intimidating NBC.
NBC: (30) (Mhaye 1st, S. Rugger 1st, NAF 1st, Pollux Oil 1st, NBC 1st, AH 1st, Shadow Facts 1st, Boozy Squid 2nd, Oredigger77 2nd, CatInASuit 3rd, Total Lost 3rd, Sarah Connor Special Effect)
Zeriel: (20) (Diggit Camera 1st, Boozy Squid 1st, CatInASuit 1st, Oredigger77 1st, Pollux Oil 2nd, Total Lost 2nd, S. Rugger, Zeriel 3rd, MHaye 3rd)
Pollux Oil: (9) (Total Lost 1st, AH 3rd, NBC 3rd, Pollux Oil 3rd, Oredigger77 3rd, NAF 3rd, Diggit Camera 3rd)
S. Rugger: (8) (Rysto 2nd, Shadow Facts 2nd, CatInASuit 2nd, Mhaye 2nd)
DiggitCamera: (7) (NAF 2nd, AH 2nd, NBC 2nd, Boozy Squid 3rd)
Shadow Facts: (5) (Rysto 1st, DiggitCamera 2nd)
CatInASuit: (4) (Zeriel 1st, S. Rugger 3rd)
Oredigger77: (2) (Zeriel 2nd)
Storyteller: (1) (Rysto 3rd)
Rysto: (1) (Shadow Facts 3rd)
Day 4
Votes:
Zeriel: 1. NAF, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. Zeriel
NAF1138: 1.Oredigger77, 2. OAOW, 3. S. Rugger
AH: 1. dotchan, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. DiggitCamera
Boozy Squid: 1. NAF1138, 2. Zeriel, 3. Shadow Facts
Total Lost: 1. Diggit, 2. Zeriel, 3. Dotchan
DiggitCamera: 1. Zeriel, 2.OaOW, 3. S. Rugger
Santo Rugger: 1. Pollux Oil, 2. CatInASuit, 3. Shadow Facts
Oredigger77: 1. dotchan, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. DiggitCamera
dotchan: 1. NAF, 2. dotchan, 3. mhaye
Rysto: 1. dotchan, 2. Shadow Facts, 3. Santo Rugger
Shadow Facts: 1. Oredigger77, 2. Pollux Oil, 3. Shadow Facts
CatInASuit: 1. Santo Rugger, 2. Zeriel, 3. Oredigger77
Pollux Oil: 1. dotchan, 2. Zeriel, 3. Oredigger77
OAOW: 1. Santo Rugger, 2. Pollux Oil, 3. Zeriel
Mhaye: 1. dotchan, 2. Zeriel, 3. Pollux Oil
dotchan: (18) (Mhaye 1st, Pollux Oil 1st, Rysto 1st, Oredigger77 1st, AH 1st, dotchan 2nd, Total Lost 3rd)
Santo Rugger: (15) (Catinasuit 1st, OAOW 1st, AH 2nd, Oredigger77 2nd, Zeriel 2nd, NAF 3rd, DiggitCamera 3rd, Rysto 3rd)
Zeriel: (15) (DiggitCamera 1st, CatInASuit 2nd, Pollux Oil 2nd, Boozy Squid 2nd, Total Lost 2nd, Mhaye 2nd, Zeriel 3rd, OaOW 3rd)
NAF1138: (9) (dotchan 1st, Boozy Squid 1st, Zeriel 1st)
Oredigger77: (8) (ShadowFacts 1st, NAF 1st, Pollux Oil 3rd, CatInASuit 3rd)
Pollux Oil: (8) (Santo Rugger 1st, Shadow Facts 2nd, OaOW 2nd, Mhaye 3rd)
Shadow Facts: (5) (Rysto 2nd, Boozy Squid 3rd, Santo Rugger 3rd, Shadow Facts 3rd)
Diggit: (4) (Total Lost 1st, AH 3rd, Oredigger77 3rd)
OAOW: (4) (NAF 2nd, DiggitCamera 2nd)
CatInASuit: (2) (Santo Rugger 2nd)
Day 5
Complete Votes:
Santo Rugger: 1.NAF, 2.CatInASuit, 3.Shadow Facts
Zeriel: 1.NAF, 2.Mhaye, 3.CatInASuit
ShadowFacts: 1.NAF, 2.Santo Rugger, 3.Shadow Facts
Almost Human: 1. NAF 2. Santo Rugger, 3. Shadow Facts
OaOW: 1. NAF, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. Zeriel
Oredigger77: 1. NAF, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. Shadow Facts
TotalLost: 1. NAF, 2. Zeriel, 3. CatinaSuit
NAF: 1.NAF, 2. Santo, 3. ShadowFacts
DiggitCamera: 1. NAF, 2. Zeriel, 3. CatInASuit
CatInASuit: 1.NAF1138, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. Zeriel
Rysto: 1. NAF, 2. Mhaye, 3. Shadow Facts
Special Effects:
N/A
Totals:
NAF: (33) (DiggitCamera 1st, NAF 1st, Total Lost 1st, Oredigger77 1st, S. Rugger 1st, Rysto 1st, Zeriel 1st, OaOW 1st, AH 1st, Shadow Facts 1st)
Santo Rugger: (12) (CatInASuit 2nd, NAF 2nd, Oredigger77 2nd, AH 2nd, Shadow Facts 2nd, OaOW 2nd)
Zeriel: (6) (DiggitCamera 2nd, TotalLost 2nd, OaOW 3rd, CatInASuit 3rd)
Shadow Facts: (6) (S. Rugger 3rd, Shadow Facts 3rd, AH 3rd, Oredigger77 3rd, NAF 3rd, Rysto 3rd)
CatInASuit: (5) (S. Rugger 2nd, Zeriel 3rd, Total Lost 3rd, Diggit Camera 3rd)
Mhaye: (4) (Rysto 2nd, Zeriel 2nd)
The vanillas:
CIAS
Day 1: 1. Santo Rugger, 2. Zsofia, 3. peeker
Day 2: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. NBC
Day 3: 1. Zeriel, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. NBC
Day 4: 1. Santo Rugger, 2. Zeriel, 3. Oredigger77
Day 5: 1. NAF1138, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. Zeriel
Cookies/Zeriel
Day 1: 1. Zsofia, 2. peeker, 3. Santo Rugger
Day 2: 1. NBC, 2. NAF, 3. Flyfisheron
Day 3: 1. CatInASuit, 2. Oredigger77, 3. Zeriel
Day 4: 1. NAF, 2. Santo Rugger, 3. Zeriel
Day 5: 1. NAF, 2. Mhaye, 3. CatInASuit
Santo Rugger
Day 1: 1. DiggitCamera, 2. ShadowFacts, 3. Zsofia
Day 2: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. Zeriel, 3. NBC
Day 3: 1. NBC, 2. Zeriel, 3. CatInAThis
Day 4: 1. Pollux Oil, 2. CatInASuit, 3. Shadow Facts
Day 5: 1. NAF, 2. CatInASuit, 3. Shadow Facts
Shadow Facts
Day 1: 1. Zsofia, 2. Almost Human, 3. peeker
Day 2: 1. Flyfisheron, 2. OAOW, 3. AH
Day 3: 1. NBC, 2. S. Rugger, 3. Rysto
Day 4: 1. Oredigger77, 2. Pollux Oil, 3. Shadow Facts
Day 5: 1. NAF, 2. Santo Rugger, 3.Shadow Facts
Note that the Jester is purple because he’s a special case. Lynching the Jester was the equivalent of a mislynch, so voting for the Jester was a pro-scum action, not pro-town. Also note that all instances of “Cookies” were replaced by “Zeriel” to make interpreting the data easier. I haven’t bothered to do that with storychan.
What I did next was look at how many lynch points each player has given to confirmed town(plus the Jester), confirmed scum and unconfirmed players. That comes out like this:
Player Town Unconfirmed Scum
CIAS 9 18 3
Zeriel 11 11 8
Rugger 14 13 3
ShadowFacts 18 9 3
The board is complaining that my post is too big, so I’m going to split it across two posts.
My initial reaction to this was the Zeriel/Cookies was obviously the least scummy of the group. He’s near the bottom in vote points for Town and the only one with more than 3 vote points for scum(we all earned 3 vote points for scum in lynching confirmed scum NAF yesterDay). But in looking more closely at the data, I’m not so sure. So, the thing is that Zeriel earned those extra scum votes by voting for NAF Days 2 and 4. Frankly, those votes were weird. NAF had claimed a power role – a confirmable power role. Why the voting before the matter was conclusively determined? I begin to suspect that Cookies/Zeriel might have been busing NAF for townie cred. NAF was a dead man the instant he falsely claimed; it was just a matter of time before his lie would be revealed. Busing NAF would have been an easy way to get pro-Town points. Cookies’ Day Two vote justification was lame, and she got called on it at the time:
I’m voting for you because I don’t think you’ll get lynched? It sounded to me like a player who’s dodging responsibility for their vote to me, and I said so at the time.
In fairness to Zeriel, when he voted NAF on Day 4 he did so before NAF claimed to have blocked Boozy. But even after that claim was made, and after we came up with the plan that ended up outing NAF that Night, he stubbornly stayed with that vote on NAF.
I also find it a bit weird that Zeriel had so much suspicion early in the game that seemingly evaporated without comment Day Five. If I get time I’d like to take a closer look at who was after him Day Four and earlier and suddenly stopped pushing him Day Five.
Zeriel has self-voted twice with a third vote. That gets a big raised eyebrow from me. One great thing that the Borda count does for us is force people to get more than three suspects on the record each Day. That’s so important for the Town because Townies are going to be reasonably consistent in their suspicions. Of course new evidence will come to light that will get them looking at different people, but I would definitely expect a consistency that you could follow from Day to Day. Scum, on the other hand, would much prefer to vote strategically to force mislynches. Their best vote will change from Day to Day. So there’s a tension there between the best strategic vote for a single Day and the need to construct a townie-looking voting record. And when players are forced to name three suspects instead of just one, that makes it all the harder for scum to vote strategically with a townie-looking record. One way to get around this would be to leave a placeholder vote on yourself. By not naming a third suspect, scum could give themselves more freedom to vote strategically without contradicting their previously stated opinions. So when I see Zeriel with 2 self-votes saying how important it is that people get justified third votes on the record, well, that gets a big :dubious:.
Of the other players in the vanilla pool, ShadowFacts stands out some. He’s been pinging me forever and the voting record says that they’re might be something to that: he’s ended up voting the most for town than anyone else. He also has 2 self-votes. Finally, upthread he said that I’ve been on him for no reasons for a couple Days now. That’s a nice, subtle smudge there. A couple of Days, Shadow? Are you trying to imply that there was a change of behaviour on my part about when the Jester was lynched? Well, a look at the voting record shows that’s bullshit: I’ve been on him since Day 2, not “for a couple of Days”.
Finally, Zeriel asked that we use our third vote for our suspicions of who the Jester is. I think he’s scum, but that’s a reasonable, pro-town request so I’m going to follow it. If you held a gun to my head and asked me to pick out who the recruit is, right now I’d have to pick MHaye. Was he recruited or driven insane? That’s a big pile of WIFOM, but I think that recruitment is far more likely than him happening to drive himself insane at exactly the right moment to make it look like recruitment. It’s not impossible, but I don’t like those odds.
1. Zeriel
2. ShadowFacts
3. MHaye
I stuck with my vote because NAF’s story was frankly and obviously bullshit, in my view.
That was then, when we didn’t have a jester and we weren’t comparing records as hard, and declared “placeholder because no one else is pinging my scumdar” is as justified a third vote as I could put down at that time. I think we all can agree that the situation now with voting is significantly different than the situation yesterDay–we know the jester has fired, we do not have a specific confirmed scum target, and we know we have two original scum in the vanilla pool to vote for. I won’t even feel the same way tomorrow–we’ll be back down to two scum and there will not be as much of an opportunity for scum to hide bad votes by throwing three on the vanilla pool.