MAFIA: The Game - Ideal for Beginners [Game in Progress]

[Precambrianmollusc]

@Thing_Fish

This scenario also fits with the fact that JSexton praised my analysis of Day One, which (if this scenario is right, falsely) concluded that scum were probably overrepresented among the septimus**** voters.

Not sure we should take anything JSexton said as evidence of much , he could be trying to enhance what may be an erroneous conclusion by you that scum were over represented, or being a ‘helpful townie’ by backing a correct conclusion that scum was over represented, thus endering himself to you and , down the line if he was exposed, puts the conclusion into question.
I suppose you could both be wolves and then , well fuck knows.

Way back Biotop said
Now, let’s all go back and read every one of JSexton’s lies. Why did he post them?

We don’t know that JSexton was lying all the time, so certainly reviewing his actions and others actions around him is useful, anything he said could be true or a lie.

[Thing_Fish]

@Precambrianmollusc

Not sure we should take anything JSexton said as evidence of much , he could be trying to enhance what may be an erroneous conclusion by you that scum were over represented, or being a ‘helpful townie’ by backing a correct conclusion that scum was over represented, thus endering himself to you and , down the line if he was exposed, puts the conclusion into question.
I suppose you could both be wolves and then , well fuck knows.

Way back Biotop said
Now, let’s all go back and read every one of JSexton’s lies. Why did he post them?

We don’t know that JSexton was lying all the time, so certainly reviewing his actions and others actions around him is useful, anything he said could be true or a lie.

I certainly agree that we should be very cautious in trying to read anything into JSexton’s posts.

[Biotop]

I don’t mean to look at his posts necessarily as factual lies. I mean JSexton posts are lies in the sense he was pretending them to be from helpful town and that was not the case. So why would an experienced sneaky wolf make those posts? Sure it is dangerous to try and draw definite conclusions, but we can believe he did not expect to be lynched so early. In that context we may learn something.

[Biotop]

Sario, this would be a good time to start giving input. You logged on this morning…

[Sario]

@Biotop

Sario, this would be a good time to start giving input. You logged on this morning…

I have mixed feelings about this post. On one hand, calling out lurkers is usually a good thing. On the other hand, checking my board activity feels almost like an invasion of my privacy (yes, I’m aware board activity is public info).

Also, I would like to point out that I logged in this morning to check the MMP, and didn’t start catching up on this thread until I got home this evening.

[Sario]

Oh, I almost forgot,

Vote Jsexton

[Biotop]

@Bayard

Since the game started, I’ve been keeping a spreadsheet with all players’ names across the top and down the side. Sort of an X-Y axis like those mileage grids you used to see in road atlases. Where players intersect, I colored the squares red or green to show if they voiced support or suspicion of each other. So, it’s pretty crude and only shows current state, not change over time. But it helps me visualize the relationships. It’s sort of a “heat map”.
Y
Anyway, I figure the wolves most likely won’t talk to or about each other all that much if they can avoid it. If I were a wolf I’d probably try to have the blandest interaction possible with my fellow wolves. (Of course I’m just guessing – I really don’t know how I’d play that side.) Anyway, I looked on my grid for the players that JSexton didn’t express much opinion on, and who in return didn’t express much opinion on him. The players who pretty much left each other alone.

I’m not saying this is really strong proof of wolfitude, but it may be something. And I’m sure my scorekeeping is off. I’m sure I missed some posts and mischaracterized others. But as far as I can tell, the players JSexton said very little about, and who said little about him in return are:

DiggitCamara
Johnny Bravo
Precambrianmollusc
Sario
Texcat

Those five and JSexton make 6, so they can’t all be wolves. And I still don’t think TexCat is the Alpha. So, to my mind that leaves DiggitCamara, Johnny Bravo, Precambrianmollusc, and Sario as players we might want to take a good look at.

I note that Precambrianmollusc has cast doubt on my role claim and has not yet voted for JSexton. Precambrianmollusc, whose side are you one?

If we follow up on this, we can further see if any of the five highlighted players above communicated or didn’t with each other. Now that we know a wolf, we can suspect a wolf and try to read their interactions. It’s a lot of theory and guesswork… but we have a lot of time (over 10 real days!) until we have to make that crucial next vote. And we have the advantage that the wolves probably did not see Bayard’s claim coming so their postings may reveal more than they intended.

So my thought is, find the person you are most suspicious of, and then reread everything back in context of that suspician and the knowledge of JSexton as wolf. Does anyone else then jump out?

[Sario]

As multiple people have pointed out, I have been rather quiet in this game. I would like to this opportunity to correct that.

Overall, I have had more difficulty following the game than I originally expected. I realize now that I don’t have as much time to dedicate as I thought I would. Also I have issues following who said what and when. I haven’t yet found a note system that works for me.

I’m not posting this to get sympathy or anything like that, I just want to give everyone all the info I can.

On to my actions in game:

At the beginning of Day One, I put out a random vote to help start the conversation. This move was ultimately unnecessary as talk about the tie breaker quickly came to dominate the thread, so I pulled my vote. Then the self voting plan came out and in opposition I placed my second vote. After the rule change, I re-read and found myself agreeing with the case against septimus, so I put my vote on him, where it ended up staying for the rest of the Day.

Beginning Day Two I was planning on be more active, but life had other plans. After a couple of false starts, I found myself almost to the end of the Day with very little idea of what was going on. Rather then jumping on a bandwagon or picking someone at random, I decided to abstain from voting.

So far Today has developed rather quickly after Bayard’s announcement. A few thoughts:

The odds of Bayard hitting both the Alpha and a regular wolf on back to black nights is very remote, and TexCat never really struck me as particularly scummy.

@Jimmy_Chitwood

It’s a fact that does rather bear on the accusation that I was trying to sneak it by the rest of the town, however.

I don’t know if I’m just tired, or Jimmy’s wording is off, but I don’t under this post at all.

That’s all I have for the moment, hopefully I can keep up for the rest of the game.

[Thing_Fish]

I think I may have hit a nerve. A few followup questions for** Jimmy Chitwood**:

• When you said

@Jimmy_Chitwood

Check my thinking here, since I’m out of time for right now, but as I read it, it does seem to me that Occam’s razor would suggest that the easier scenarios to make sense of are the ones we should be leaning towards. By that reading, seems like our frontrunners should be TexCat, Sario, DiggitCamara, wild card. No?

I interpreted that as you saying that, at least as of that particular moment, you felt TexCat looked like our best candidate for toMorrow. Do you think I was unreasonable to read it that way? If you didn’t mean that, what did you mean?

What do you think of my argument that, in fact, we shouldn’t consider lynching** TexCat** until and unless we are at lynch or lose, since, by lynching other people, we might get lucky and hit the Alpha Wolf, thus confirming TexCat as Town?

[Biotop]

God help me, but a thought came to me while on the way to the mill this morning.

Now it is just a thought. However, we don’t seem to have a lot else going on toDay.

But first, before I go into detail, could someone who is better at math than I am tell me what the odds are of the following:

Twelve players, four of whom are wolves and the rest town. Two players are chosen at random. What are the odds they are both town? What are the odds they are both wolves? What are the odds there is one from each group among the two? Thanks. Will check back at lunch.

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

@Biotop

God help me, but a thought came to me while on the way to the mill this morning.

Now it is just a thought. However, we don’t seem to have a lot else going on toDay.

But first, before I go into detail, could someone who is better at math than I am tell me what the odds are of the following:

Twelve players, four of whom are wolves and the rest town. Two players are chosen at random. What are the odds they are both town? What are the odds they are both wolves? What are the odds there is one from each group among the two? Thanks. Will check back at lunch.

1/3rd are wolves , 2/3 are town. Both town: 2/3 x 2/3 = 4/9, or 44%. Both wolves: 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/9, or 11%. 44%+11% = 55%, so the odds of once of each is the remainder, 45%.

Nope, that’s wrong. Corrections in next post.

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

Two town: 2/3 (8/12) x 7/11 = 14/33, or about 42%
Two wolves: 1/3 x 3/11 = 1/11, or 9%
42% + 9% = 51%, so one of each is the remainder, 49%.

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

@Thing_Fish

I think I may have hit a nerve.

Eh. So did Plumpudding.

A few followup questions for** Jimmy Chitwood**:

• When you said
  I interpreted that as you saying that, at least as of that particular moment, you felt TexCat looked like our best candidate for toMorrow. Do you think I was unreasonable to read it that way? If you didn’t mean that, what did you mean?

No, I don’t think it’s unreasonable. I didn’t mean that. What I meant was what I said - that following the line of reasoning I started down before we knew (“knew”) that JSexton’s a wolf, and trying to arrange game states that are compatible with the facts we have, the one that is the simplest to grasp is the one where the group of scum consists of something very much like that group of players. It’s not listed by priority. It’s, as a group, what I’m positing is the most likely “solution” to the puzzle, unless one of the more analytical players can poke a hole in it. There being nine hiding places for four wolves instead of seven for four wolves is a little bit of a hole.

The underlying point, which I’m pretty sure I expressed but maybe not, since of course I know what I mean, is that if there’s an alternative scenario that seems more plausible, I don’t know what scenario that is at this point. What better explains how we got here? I’m not sure anyone else has addressed that - what is the alternative scenario that is more probable than that JSexton was saved by scum, but that TexCat specifically was not the scapegoat because she is also scum?

I suggested other possibilities. I don’t think they’re improvements, though. You suggested the alternative that I’m scum and TexCat is town, and so I was creating anti-TexCat discord for the future, which I’m trying to capitalize on now. I reject that as obviously incompatible with what I know, but I also don’t see how it’s a plausible explanation for my behavior.

What do you think of my argument that, in fact, we shouldn’t consider lynching** TexCat** until and unless we are at lynch or lose, since, by lynching other people, we might get lucky and hit the Alpha Wolf, thus confirming TexCat as Town?

I think that’s a fine argument. I would suggest that DiggitCamara and Sario might be good candidates.

–

In other news, I don’t understand this business about the chances of randomly hitting X and Y. It goes without saying that there are more town players than scum, and that there are many more non-alpha-wolf players than alpha wolves. Are we suggesting that since JSexton’s result was Wolf, that somehow affects the chances that TexCat is also a wolf?

[Thing_Fish]

I looked again at the first part of the vote from Day One.

Coming out of the self-voting craze, we had (one-offs omitted for brevity)

Dante G 1 (Chitwood)
TexCat 1 (Chronos)

Then JSexton starts getting heat:

JSexton 2 (Mahaloth, Cygnus)
Dante G 1 (Chitwood)
TexCat 1 (Chronos)

And suddenly the septimus wagon roars into view!

septimus 2 (Johnny Bravo, TexCat)
JSexton 2 (Mahaloth, Cygnus)
Dante G 1 (Chitwood)
TexCat 1 (Chronos)

Could certainly be a scum rescue mission. Or maybe not. Our esteeemed Seer chimes in:

JSexton 3 (Mahaloth, Cygnus, Bayard)
septimus 2 (Johnny Bravo, TexCat)
Dante G 1 (Chitwood)
TexCat 1 (Chronos)

More votes trickle in to tighten the race…

JSexton 3 (Mahaloth, Cygnus, Bayard)
septimus 2 (Johnny Bravo, TexCat)
Dante G 2 (Chitwood, Biotop)
TexCat 2 (Chronos, sangfroid)

Hard to know what to make of any of this. Scum wouldn’t necessarily be panicking to get JSexton off the top spot at this point. Other than the votes on JSexton, I can see all of these as plausibly either town or scum votes. The Professor puts the pressure on further, though:

JSexton 4 (Mahaloth, Cygnus, Bayard, Pepperwinkle)
septimus 2 (Johnny Bravo, TexCat)
Dante G 2 (Chitwood, Biotop)
TexCat 2 (Chronos, sangfroid)

So now things are getting a bit more serious. And what happens now?

JSexton 4 (Mahaloth, Cygnus, Bayard, Pepperwinkle)
TexCat 4 (Chronos, sangfroid, Plumpudding, septimus)

to be continued…
septimus 2 (Johnny Bravo, TexCat)
Dante G 2 (Chitwood, Biotop)

[Thing_Fish]

Well, sorry folks, I might be gone for a while but will resume when I can.

[TexCat]

JSexton himself did not seem too worried about being lynched on Day One. It’s hard to believe that his wolf buddies were panicking when he wasn’t.

[Thing_Fish]

So wrapping up super quickly… then Diggit, Sario and Dante G, in that order, move septimus into the lead:

septimus 5 (Johnny Bravo, TexCat, Diggit, Sario, Dante G)
JSexton 4 (Mahaloth, Cygnus, Bayard, Pepperwinkle)
TexCat 4 (Chronos, sangfroid, Plumpudding, septimus)
Dante G 2 (Chitwood, Biotop)

And then Chitwood and Pepperwinkle pile onto TexCat, which pretty much removes JSexton’s feet from the fire for the rest of the Day:

TexCat 6 (Chronos, sangfroid, Plumpudding, septimus, Chitwood, Pepperwinkle)
septimus 5 (Johnny Bravo, TexCat, Diggit, Sario, Dante G)
JSexton 3 (Mahaloth, Cygnus, Bayard)

Certainly in Chitwood’s case it seems plausible that this could be an opportunistic scum seeing his chance to further distance JSexton from danger. If Pepperwinkle is scum, well, he was pursuing a very bold strategy.

So going back to this:

JSexton 4 (Mahaloth, Cygnus, Bayard, Pepperwinkle)
septimus 2 (Johnny Bravo, TexCat)
Dante G 2 (Chitwood, Biotop)
TexCat 2 (Chronos, sangfroid)

Doesn’t it seem possible that Plumpudding putting the next vote on TexCat was the rescue mission? We know septimus was town, of course. So then looking at this:

JSexton 4 (Mahaloth, Cygnus, Bayard, Pepperwinkle)
TexCat 4 (Chronos, sangfroid, Plumpudding, septimus)
septimus 2 (Johnny Bravo, TexCat)
Dante G 2 (Chitwood, Biotop)

Who are you going to vote for if you’re scum? It seems like TexCat would be the obvious choice. So maybe Diggit and Sario didn’t vote for her because they’re all scum; but doesn’t it seem at least as plausible that they are town making bad decisions and inadvertently helping
JSexton avoid the noose?

Looking at the chain of events closely, I don’t see any developments here that I think can’t plausibly be explained with the assumption that TexCat is town, and that’s why I’m not planning to ignore the Seer’s read just because it has only a 91.7% chance of being correct.

All right, I’m signing off until tomorrow night or Sunday morning.

[Biotop]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Two town: 2/3 (8/12) x 7/11 = 14/33, or about 42%
Two wolves: 1/3 x 3/11 = 1/11, or 9%
42% + 9% = 51%, so one of each is the remainder, 49%.

Lunchtime…

So with two random picks we have a 58% chance of having at least one wolf. Do the odds increase if we have two players not randomly selected. I think they can. Suppose the two are our top two suspects as the day nears an end —instead of the random two. Seems like the probability might increase that we have at least one wolf among the pair. And if they are both town we were going to be mis-lynching anyway!

Maybe I have spent too much time on game theory and the Monty Hall puzzle, but there could still be a way to use the current tie breaker to find wolves and the Alpha.

I don’t want to say too much more now because I do not want the wolves to be able to discuss this when Night comes. I may have said to much already so if you see what I am getting at please don’t post theories on plot until NextDay.

But I think it is fair to ask this:

If we can use the tie breaking mechsnism as it is currently in place to out wolves, and we are using candidates chosen by our collective mafia play for scum liklihood, does this violate the spirit of the game or not?

Please respond.

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

It’s a game for Newbies. New interpretations of the spirit of the game seem to be to be intrinsic to that idea.

[TexCat]

Biotop,
I’m not clear on the new rules. Our first mason is still alive, so he would have the tie-break? Or does he only have the tie-break if he’s voting for one of the ties?

I’m also unclear about how this is going to work. Let’s assume that our first mason stays out of the voting and that the tie-breaker then goes to the alpha wolf.

If a townie is lynched, do we know anything? It might be that the alpha wolf was on the wagon, or perhaps not. It might be that the other candidate was scum, or perhaps not.

It does give the alpha wolf control of the lynch, so we can assume that if a wolf is lynched then the other candidate was likely a wolf.

But in most (49% according to Prof’s by random stats) cases where it’s one wolf and one townie, we are assuring that the townie gets lynched and I can’t see where we learn anything concrete.

Am I missing an important detail somewhere?