Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

[Blaster_Master]

[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
Hardly. The latest tip-off I got was you going along with the “Hal vs. nesta” ploy. But, I knew there were other things, so I decided to do a readthrough of all your recent postings. But something told me to take a look at your voting history first…
[/QUOTE]

Don’t flatter yourself. I gave reasons for suspecting nesta of which that wasn’t even a reason for suspicion, only a reason to watch closely. Do you even READ my posts? :rolleyes:

Wow…just, wow…of the remaining players, there are only two who voted for fluiddruid, Lemur and Rachm the day they each swung – tirial and yourself.

“Well Hal”, you say, “doesn’t that exonerate Blaster? If he were scum, would he have voted for every one of his teammates?”

Bet’cher butt…take a look at how known mafia voted the day we lynched scum:

Day 4: fluiddruid swings, Lemur and Rachm both vote for her.
Day 6: Lemur swings, Rachm votes for him.

Selective with your evidence again, I see. Did you forget that Rachm ALSO voted for fluiddruid the day before when Projammer was lynched? Did you also forget that he voted for **Lemur ** the day before he was lynched? He wasn’t jumping on a bandwagon; he was trying to pre-empt them… this is far different than the simply pile-on voting you’re describing. Further, by that logic, you should be equally, if not moreso, suspicious of tirial, no?

Blaster, your name slips right in there perfectly, and also goes in when Rachm swung.

It seems pretty damn clear that the scum have a “vote for our own” policy going on. It makes sense, when you use it sometimes. Where they screwed up is in doing it each and every time one of them fell.

Yeah, THERE’S a winning strategy for the mafia. :rolleyes: The sentence after you accuse me, you contradict yourself. You’re falling into the same pit we fell into in M2, namely, assuming the mafia is stupid. The mafia would be fully aware that they shouldn’t do it every time. Don’t you think they would be smart enough to not fall into such a simple and obvious pattern? More likely, they’d hope people would start to see that pattern and play with it by having one of them go against the grain and blend in nicely.

[DiggitCamara]

[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
Ok. So can we lynch Diggit now?
[/QUOTE]

On that note:

Could you … you know, substantiate your vote? I’ve asked the same from tirial, but, like I said yesterday, I have been feeling kind of ignored by her anyway. But your case, as far as I can see originated on Day 5. You said:

@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

My fellow townsfolk need to look long and hard at the three other individuals with Lightnin’s Do-gooder blood on their hands besides me: Diggit, Millit, and nesta. By doing so, you would at least come extremely close to a 1 in 3 chance of targeting a scum to lynch, if not better.

in this post. This argument needs, I think, a bit of work. If we look at all the lynching’s we have had, as far as I can tell, none have been fully documented. The actions of known scum in these lynchings differ widely: **fluiddruid **took part in all the lynchings until she was lynched herself, Rachm just cast final votes on scum and **Lemur866 **cast a vote for a scum and one for non-scum (I am, of course, just looking at votes that formed a part of the majority). There is no pattern, so far, concerning scum voting patterns. And I can’t even begin to calculate the actual probability of a scum-less lynch. So, as far as I know, you might have chosen the only lynch where scum didn’t vote to lynch.

You argued, as well, that everyone should choose anyone but you from that list. Which, frankly, is wrong. No one but yourself should trust yourself. Therefore, your post actually meant (to everyone else): one of these 4 is scum.

However, I didn’t even take issue with your statement. I went on my own tangent to investigate the 3rd day’s incidents. And came up with **Lemur866 **as my main suspect (and suspected assorted people, amongst them you).

Your answer to this was

@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

So you’re not buying that I’m town, or the high likelyhood that one of the other three who voted for Lightnin’ is scum. Duly noted. FOS on Diggit. Not enough for a vote, but anyone who has a similar view will also be FOS’d by me.

which is absolutely wrong. Your analysis is not absolute. It is not the definitive answer to anything. You are entitled to it, of course. But to point your FOS at someone merely because they hold a different opinion is, frankly, bad strategy.

Since then you have added nothing new to your argument. And thus I ask: have you really looked? Have you analyzed your own reasons to vote? Or have you simply made up your mind on the basis of one bad idea?

[nesta]

[QUOTE=Hal Briston]

[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
Ok. So can we lynch Diggit now?
[/QUOTE]

Sure, assuming either he or you were the one recruited last night. Otherwise, you’re lynching town.
[/QUOTE]

DiggitCamara is still at the top of my suspicion list, but you seem pretty convinced he’s town. I’m really doubting my gut (yet again) after not picking up on Rachm Quoch’s scuminess, so I’m not as sure about my read on DiggitCamara. He’s been on my radar for most of the game, though, and I really hope I’m right about him to get a little vindication.

I still don’t have a good feeling about Blaster Master either, but at this point it’s just a feeling. I really need to review the thread and figure out what’s really been going on, because I feel like I’m in the dark, and I have no idea anymore who’s been leading me around. Some of the vote switching late yesterday left a bad taste in my mouth, and I’ve now started to wonder if I’ve been wrong and the remaining scum have been flying under my radar entirely.

[Millit_the_Frail]

Thanks, Gadarene, for not keeping me in suspense. My sticking around for an extra few minutes paid off, and I haven’t been in suspense all this time.

Well, whether it was earlier of whether it was now, we’ve almost surely got a recruit. Not tirial because it’s too obvious? Or tirial because it’s too obvious to be real? No idea. But I think we should get try to the original scum first. I still think it’s either Cookies or Blaster, probably Blaster.

Well, I feel rather stupid about trying to derail the lynch yesterday. I still have a bad feeling about Blaster Master, of course. He was all over my notes. But once Rachm Qoch turned out to be Mafia, I checked my notes and found almost nothing.

The one thing that stood out to me, going over more pages, was that Lemur’s lynch looks kind of like a Mafia set-up. Rachm started the votes the previous day, and then Lemur called him on it, pretty much speaking the truth. (I can find the post if you don’t believe me.) Near the end of the day,** Lemur** said he would be kind of glad he was going out, as he had to get back to RL stuff. I have a crackpot theory that the lynch was planned, a sacrifice for the greater Mafia good. (Greater mafia evil, I mean.) Think about it: it could get Rachm off the hook (this worked on me), and possibly also Diggit, nesta and tirial. And then Lemur could spend all day feeding the town all sorts of smoke and mirrors. His “they’ve recruited already” spiel could have been true, because we’d doubt it when we found out he was Mafia. Or it could have been false, with the reverse psychology.

Anyway, we ought to be careful with anything he said on that day. I don’t want another “fluiddruid’s dying will” thing happening. (I am smacking myself on the forehead right now…no, really, you should see it.)

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
The scum have been playing us, using the fact that **Projammer ** was up against scum to try and put blame on various people which resulted in one townie lynch (Lightnin’) and almost that of CaerieD. Interesting that when Lemur was up and Millit, Hal, and Cookies didn’t vote for him, there’s no push to get them lynched in the way that those “responsible” for Projammer’s death have been pursued.
[/QUOTE]

I beg to differ. My not voting for Lemur has been cited numerous times through the game, so there has definitely been persuit. As for why that hasn’t turned into a bandwagon to stretch any of our throats (yet), maybe that’s because we’re all town (or at least were at the time of our non-Lemur votes).

Suspicion is relative. Case in point: yesterday I had Millit 3rd in line for the gallows, yet I just hypothesized him as town. This whole paragraph of your’s oozes with the smell of a scum desperately in search of a diversion. Perhaps even enough of a stench to pull my attention away from my old pal Diggit again. Ironically, assuming that I’ve been wrong about Diggit this whole time, I have to say that if tirial hadn’t also been targeting him, I probably never would have switched my vote to Rachm yester-game-day. But perhaps the end can justify the means on occasion.

The potential value of surviving town to scum is also relative. As I’ve said before, I suspect that I’m still alive in this game for the very reason that my playing and my luck have been so bad that I’ve been preserved by the scum as more of an asset, instead of eliminated as a threat.

Now for my response to Diggit’s questions…

The day after Lightnin’ was lynched, I grabbed onto the analysis angle that appealed the most to me at the time. At least a 1 in 3 chance at finding scum in the others who voted for him with me. I then started to suppliment it with the strategy that I tend to default to: when in doubt, the opposite of known town (myself) can be used to sniff out scum. While admittedly weak and sophomoric as a strategy, it not always has inaccurate consequences, as was the case with my analysis of MadTheSwine during Game 1 (even though it wasn’t enough to keep my townie butt safe from his smear campaign that Day).

But you’re right. My reasoning against you has been weak, and has been largely gut-driven, and I highly doubt that anyone else suspecting you has been including my views in their rationalization checklists. But even though I’m going to unvote you, (unvote Diggit), I could very well be reassured that my gut has been right and put it right back prior to nightfall.

Now, let’s hear some more thoughts about this Blaster Master character…

[tirial]

Personally I think we started with four scum. That means if the recruitment hadn’t taken place we were down to one last night. This means that they needed to recruit last night, particularly if the remaining scum was under suspicion as Diggit and Blastermaster are. I would suggest we go for the one remaining original scum, and then once he’s gone, we hunt the recruit.

And no, I think the town would be dumb to take me off the suspicion list. I know I wasn’t recruited, but the only other people who know that are the original scum and their recruit (if any).

[Quote=nesta]
(…I still can’t figure out why she was night-killed).
[/Quote]

I think CaerieD was nightkilled because a lot of the case against Rachm rested on his following her for the first two days. There may have been a mistaken belief that killing her would take suspicion off him. Its also possible they killed her to create confusion - resulting in exactly the question asked above.

[Quote=Diggit]
"I’ve asked the same from tirial, but, like I said yesterday, I have been feeling kind of ignored by her anyway. "
[/Quote]

Diggit: Just little things - P2151 you talking about getting the doctor lynched. and then in P2161 admitting there wasn’t a single Idle-tirial-Diggit exchange (throwing your name in with two townies at that point is a smart move for scum, in case they get lynched).

Asking about flipping a coin still seems odd - I don’t think there was anyone in that game that wasn’t following the vote count pretty closely at that point.
And Diggit, with the fact I would happily have voted for you or Rachm, as would nesta and a number of others, and the fact the scum really couldn’t afford to loose someone now, I find it a bit odd Rachm didn’t vote for you instead of Blastermaster. He’d have more chance of drumming up support and costing us another townie.

And BTW Blastermaster, in answer to 2155, P2126 should tell you why I roleclaimed. It seemed the only way to get some of the town to pay attention to what I was saying about Rachm. Also from Millet’s reaction at least one “town/mason/scum” didn’t find it obvious, or at least hadn’t thought through why the mafia would want to get the doctor lynched so much.

Oh and Millet, just out of curiosity, which of the options above was it? I’m just curious.

Millet, could you update your spreadsheet if you have a chance - there is something I’d like to check and doing it just from posts makes me worry I’ve misread it.

[Millit_the_Frail]

**Tirial: ** I’ve updated the spreadsheet. It’s usually kept up-to-date (3-4 times/day), so if you click on the link in any of my past posts, you should be able to see it.

As to why I unvoted you, well, I thought it was very likely that you were the Dr., but I wasn’t positive. I also didn’t know how positive everyone else was about it, and I sure as hell wasn’t going to contribute to “outing” you. I realized that the Mafia had probably suspected you as well and that your recruitment was likely. Especially when the player pool got so small yesterday. When Idle showed up still town, you looked bad. When you roleclaimed, however, I started to have doubts about your recruitment. And now that it was out in the open, I didn’t see anyone I thought was Mafia gunning for your demise, and it made me very nervous. Rachm voted for you, but I (obviously) didn’t think he was Mafia.

Cookies: You’ve voted a lot like me in this game. You pointed this out once before, I think. I want, really badly, for this reason, to put you under the heading of “townie who has made some dumb mistakes.” We can talk more about Blaster, maybe after lunch?

Lastly: If not tirial, who would the remaining Mafia recruit? I know it’s not me. But it could be any of you. I’m still kind of hoping they/he/she recruited a Mason who will go all traitorous on them at the last minute. Whoever said it was reeeeally unlikely is probably right, but God, that would be a Shakespearean ending to this thing.

[Hal_Briston]

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Don’t flatter yourself…Do you even READ my posts? :rolleyes: …Yeah, THERE’S a winning strategy for the mafia. :rolleyes:
[/QUOTE]
Really? That’s the best you can muster in your defense? A petulant attitude? C’mon…you should at least try something like actually claiming to be town.

And just a last bit of fun before you swing, care to take a crack at defending your “The sentence after you accuse me, you contradict yourself” claim?

[Hal_Briston]

[QUOTE=Millit the Frail]
Lastly: If not tirial, who would the remaining Mafia recruit?
[/QUOTE]
That’s the one question that’s troubling me. Blaster isn’t going to be able to shake me off his hide any better than Rachm was, but even when we finally string him up, that’ll still leave the recruit. And as sure as I was of Rachm, and as sure as I am of Blaster, I have no idea who the recruit is.

Frankly, I’m a bit surprised. Once the game is over, I’ll be posting my notes, just for posterity. And in my Day 8 notes, I wrote that I fully expected to be recruited that night. I’d never had a vote cast against me, so I figured the scum would look at me as trustworthy enough to bring into their fray. Glad to say I was wrong, but now I’m left wondering.

Next on my list of trustworthiness is you, Millet. I’ve never picked up the slightest hint of scum vibe from you, so was it you that was recruited? I hope not…you’ve got some superior cover going.

Go for the “too obvious” and recruit tirial? Or perhaps nesta? Cookies? Ah…really, it could be anyone (except for Diggit, that is…I’ll give Blaster enough credit not to recruit someone under that much suspicion). But you know what? I’m not going to worry about that at the moment. Once Blaster swings, then the recruit will be the only remaining scum. Hopefully they make a slip, but no matter what, we’ll have him heavily outnumbered – we’ll smoke him out. I hope…

[Hal_Briston]

[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
I beg to differ. My not voting for Lemur has been cited numerous times through the game, so there has definitely been persuit. As for why that hasn’t turned into a bandwagon to stretch any of our throats (yet), maybe that’s because we’re all town (or at least were at the time of our non-Lemur votes).

<snip>

This whole paragraph of your’s oozes with the smell of a scum desperately in search of a diversion.
[/QUOTE]
Well, when that’s all you’ve got…

Don’t buy it. He’s clinging to straws now, and knows that diversions like that are his only chance. If he can bait just a few others into looking the other way, he’ll have a chance to survive the day. Very bad news for the rest of us.

And just to address the post you quoted (since he names me in there as well), the answer is in Post #1714, where I stated that I’d change my vote over to Lemur if it was needed to lynch him. It wasn’t, so I didn’t…simple as that.

[Millit_the_Frail]

[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
Next on my list of trustworthiness is you, Millet. I’ve never picked up the slightest hint of scum vibe from you, so was it you that was recruited? I hope not…you’ve got some superior cover going.[/SIZE]
[/QUOTE]

Funny, I’ve felt almost the same about you, except I almost keep forgetting you and nesta are here. Talk about under the radar… If either of you were recruited, it was a brilliant move. Right now, though, I feel like I can trust you, since you’re thinking in the same direction as me. So is Cookies. If I go with my gut feeling, I have only one choice:

Vote Blaster Master.

Now, if we’re wrong, this is really bad. These moments are going to be crucial, and I’m going to look like the one who led us astray. :eek:

[DiggitCamara]

[QUOTE=Millit the Frail]
(snip)
The one thing that stood out to me, going over more pages, was that Lemur’s lynch looks kind of like a Mafia set-up. Rachm started the votes the previous day, and then Lemur called him on it, pretty much speaking the truth. (I can find the post if you don’t believe me.) Near the end of the day,** Lemur** said he would be kind of glad he was going out, as he had to get back to RL stuff. I have a crackpot theory that the lynch was planned, a sacrifice for the greater Mafia good. (Greater mafia evil, I mean.) Think about it: it could get Rachm off the hook (this worked on me), and possibly also Diggit, nesta and tirial. (snip)
[/QUOTE]

…you left out BlasterMaster (heh)

But you raise an interesting point. And one that is implicit in almost all the suspicions voiced during this day.

First: let’s look how the case against Lemur866 developed:

1. tirial said in this post

@Lemur866

“You all”? Lightnin’ didn’t even get an overall majority, far less all the townies. If “you all” refers to us townies, its a strange way to set youself outside the town.

She substantiated that claim later, but that was the first pointer at him.
2. I voted for him after I perused Day 3’s events, but it was the first vote for him and it seemed to gain no traction at all.
3. SnakesCatLady voted and, relatively shortly afterwards, **Rachm ** voted against Lemur866

From then on in, it went rather quickly downhill. My point is, however, that Rachm didn’t vote like one would expect from scum who want to save scum. Considering when he voted it would make no sense at all to vote for Lemur866 if he wanted to keep him safe (at the time, only 3 other votes had been cast. He could easily have voted with Idle Thoughts against SnakesCatLady and tied up things.

BlasterMaster’s vote oddly stands out, since he picks the flimsiest of possible explanations (given other reasoning) to vote for Lemur866

@BlasterMaster

(snip)Thus, I’ll vote Lemur because his “you all” comment is closer to being a smoking gun than anything out of SCL.

[Millit_the_Frail]

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
…you left out BlasterMaster (heh)
[/QUOTE]

Can’t believe I did that. :smack: Anyway, it’s a little curious because making the last vote, at the end of the the day, for a scum who’s already going to hang…well, it seems like an inexperienced Mafia thing to do. The oldest trick in the book, you know?

That’s the question we’ve been asking throughout the game: Too obvious, or so obvious it’s completely non-obvious? Going with the second in this case.

[Hal_Briston]

[QUOTE=Millit the Frail]
Now, if we’re wrong, this is really bad. These moments are going to be crucial, and I’m going to look like the one who led us astray. :eek:
[/QUOTE]
Don’t sweat it, Millet – I’m pushing for this the hardest, so if we’re wrong about this, then I’m the one who’ll come off looking the worst. Like I said, though – I’m as confident with this vote as I was was yesterday’s vote.

[DiggitCamara]

[QUOTE=tirial]
(snip)

Diggit: Just little things - P2151 you talking about getting the doctor lynched. and then in P2161 admitting there wasn’t a single Idle-tirial-Diggit exchange (throwing your name in with two townies at that point is a smart move for scum, in case they get lynched).

Asking about flipping a coin still seems odd - I don’t think there was anyone in that game that wasn’t following the vote count pretty closely at that point.
And Diggit, with the fact I would happily have voted for you or Rachm, as would nesta and a number of others, and the fact the scum really couldn’t afford to loose someone now, I find it a bit odd Rachm didn’t vote for you instead of Blastermaster. He’d have more chance of drumming up support and costing us another townie.

(snip)
[/QUOTE]

… and that’s exactly it. “Just little things” doesn’t cut it for me. On the other hand, I do get it that you don’t like it that I have been talking about lynching the doctor as soon as I spotted you.

However, look at it from the point of view of another townie. If you had spotted the doctor on one day and had seen a double no-lynch day… wouldn’t you have tried to warn the rest of the possibility of recruitment? And I actually have an example of an “experienced” player who not only followed my lead but actually took it to a point which I personally couldn’t endorse.

And I asked you a question yesterday which you haven’t answered yet: Why didn’t you disclose your identity to town far earlier?

I don’t think you were unaware that both Idle and I had spotted you. I sincerely doubt scum hadn’t spotted you. The statment you made read to me like an attempt to make scum think they hadn’t hit and failed on the doctor, so I guess you thought it likely that the scum had spotted you.

And, like I said from Day One: The main advantage scum has over town is knowledge. By not breaking your already flimsy cover you were helping scum, since you were concealing information from (some? few?) townies.

[Gadarene]

I’ve had a couple of questions about the mechanics of recruitment. Here’s how it works:

If and when a recruitment occurs/has occurred, the recruit is informed by PM that they have been recruited. Once they confirm that they have received the PM, they are given access to the Mafia boards and the Night comes to an end. The recruit is then free to peruse the Mafia boards during the Day, but they don’t get a chance to actually strategize with their fellow Mafia until the next Night (assuming they survive).

I hope this clears up all inquiries.

[DiggitCamara]

[QUOTE=Millit the Frail]
Can’t believe I did that. :smack: Anyway, it’s a little curious because making the last vote, at the end of the the day, for a scum who’s already going to hang…well, it seems like an inexperienced Mafia thing to do. The oldest trick in the book, you know?

That’s the question we’ve been asking throughout the game: Too obvious, or so obvious it’s completely non-obvious? Going with the second in this case.
[/QUOTE]

… aside from its being the last vote of the day, I agree with you…

(though that pretty much voids the content of the post, doesn’t it?

[Millit_the_Frail]

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
… aside from its being the last vote of the day, I agree with you…

(though that pretty much voids the content of the post, doesn’t it?
[/QUOTE]

I’m on a roll here. Sorry. That applies to all late-in-the-day bandwagon votes, though, so no voiding of content. It’s still the easiest trick in the book. Lemur was 5-2 over SCL.

[Blaster_Master]

[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
Really? That’s the best you can muster in your defense? A petulant attitude? C’mon…you should at least try something like actually claiming to be town.

And just a last bit of fun before you swing, care to take a crack at defending your “The sentence after you accuse me, you contradict yourself” claim?
[/QUOTE]

I’m not going to bother defending myself to you anymore, because you are obviously so set in thinking I’m scum, that you ignore the content of my posts. You’re using bad logic, which I plainly pointed out. I give up.

[Blaster_Master]

[QUOTE=Millit the Frail]
If I go with my gut feeling, I have only one choice:

Vote Blaster Master.

Now, if we’re wrong, this is really bad. These moments are going to be crucial, and I’m going to look like the one who led us astray. :eek:
[/QUOTE]

Wonderful. 2200+ posts, and I’m getting thrown up for a lynch on “gut feeling”. Seriously, what I have done that’s drawing so much suspicion?