[QUOTE=Millit the Frail]
It would have been very easy for the scum to pile on after I broke the tie vote and went after him. But…they didn’t.
[/QUOTE]
Huh? The mafia didn’t pile on? How do you know that? Only the Mafia know what the other mafia did at that point.
[QUOTE=Millit the Frail]
Anyway, still suspicious of Lightnin’, for the same reasons as yesterday, and also because his bandwagon was so abruptly stopped in favor of lynching a now-confirmed townie. It would have been very easy for the scum to pile on after I broke the tie vote and went after him. But…they didn’t.
[/QUOTE]
How do you know? And would it have been more or less suspicious if people came out of the woodwork to jump on the Lightnin’ bandwagon, once people had started pushing the case for percypercy? If Lightnin’ had come out town after a lynch, at that point the mafia would have outed themselves through the voting pattern. Do they really care which townie we kill?
Of course, if Lightnin’ was mafia then they’d push the percypercy bandwagon to protect him, so I’m not sure what we’ve learned from this (other than that I am a lousy judge of character).
Logically we should be able to get something from the people who voted for both, since we know that percypercy is town, but I’m not good enough at strategic analysis to work it out. My current thinking is that a later vote for both, switching from Lighnin to Percypercy would be suspicious, but I don’t have anything solid. I’ll drop my working notes in if anyone is interested but I am certain I have made errors, (and I tend to overthink these things) which is why I’m not FOSing anyone yet.
I’m suspicious of enough people at this point that I think I need to go back to the basics in order to find out what we need to know.
vote Lightnin’. I should have never removed my vote from him in the first place. I guess I never really fleshed out the idea that made me change my mind. All things being equal though, percy still would have died given the total vote count.
I’m glad that my responses have been generating some discourse, that could prove to be very useful when I’m dead. I’m starting to think that the Mafia has a voice or two (maybe more) in our list of more prolific posters. I’m almost sure of it. I’m quite happy to ruffle a few feathers and die, as long as it secures a win for the town.
I have a bit of advice for the masons. I think that one or two of you should vote for another Mason at least once, unless doing so would make either of your identities obvious. The way that I determined who the masons were in WW1 was mainly a comparison of voting records. There was a group of people that had not voted for each other, plus a claimed Mason, all of who’s voting records led me to correctly identify the Masons.
Use caution of course. The Mafia have to be smart enough to be voting for their own from the beginning in order to throw us off their scent. The Masons all being alive at the end of WW1 was pivotal to the town’s success, they had a bloc vote. We need to preserve that as long as we can.
I say all of this because I fully expect to be either lynched or night killed very soon. I’m determined to have my corpse speak for me. I’d like to win at least one of these games.
[QUOTE=dnooman]
I’m suspicious of enough people at this point that I think I need to go back to the basics in order to find out what we need to know.
vote Lightnin’. I should have never removed my vote from him in the first place. I guess I never really fleshed out the idea that made me change my mind. All things being equal though, percy still would have died given the total vote count.
[/QUOTE]
No, he wouldn’t. There’s a scenario in which the mafia would need that 6th vote. Let me do some working out before I point any fingers, but you’ve got me thinking.
Dnooman from day One I said that if percypercy posted I would switch my vote. My second vote possibility was Projammer. What would the final vote count have been if you switch my vote across?
Will check and post reasoning.
[QUOTE=tirial]
No, he wouldn’t. There’s a scenario in which the mafia would need that 6th vote. Let me do some working out before I point any fingers, but you’ve got me thinking.
Dnooman from day One I said that if percypercy posted I would switch my vote. My second vote possibility was Projammer. What would the final vote count have been if you switch my vote across?
[/QUOTE]
Right, I’ve checked. Tells us nothing about Lightnin, but may point the finger at someone else. My vote for Percypercy was unreliable from the mafia POV as I would have switched to projammer if Percypercy had posted. This only matters as Projammer was next in line to be lynched. If Projammer was mafia they needed a sixth vote to ensure Projammer was off the hook.
Details:
Looking into the facts: Post 408 closing vote count: percypercy 6, Projammer 3.
Up until CaerieD’s vote in 506, if percypercy had posted and I had shifted my vote to Projammer (as I said I would do from the beginning) that would have been 4 Projammer 4 percypercy, giving a 50/50 chance.
Looking at this from someone else’s view, discounting my knowledge of my role, and knowing that percypercy was town:
Tirial | Projammer | Outcome
Mafia | Mafia | vote would not switch
Mafia | Town | vote would switch (both targets are town)
Town | Mafia | vote would switch
Town | Town | vote would switch.
I know my alligence (town/mafia) and so do the mafia. The mason know mason/non-mason but not mafia/non-mafia. The town are the only people who don’t know anything. From the town’s POV there are 3 cases in 4 I’d switch my vote, from the mafia’s its 100%. The town don’t care if I switch. Therefore the extra vote to put percypercy on 6 would only be needed if the mafia thought I would switch and Projammer were mafia.
If I switched and they weren’t ahead by 3 then Projammer was at 50/50 risk with percypercy.
If I hadn’t got it horribly wrong last time, I would be voting. However I did, and it is equally possible CaerieD is town and hopping on bandwagons.
Its also interesting that a percypercy bandwagon started instead of going for the higher profile/more vote targets.
As it is FOS Projammer and CaerieD.
(By the way, I currently have a chorus of co-workers chiming in over my shoulder - I know this is a spectator sport, but I didn’t realise that half the office would get hooked! And no I’m not discussing strategy with them and I haven’t told them my role.)
So I’m coming across scummy, am I? Seriously, I think you need to reconsider your logic here. From the perspective of the Mafia, what good would it do to hop on board the end of a bandwagon against a Citizen? The Mafia would know that percypercy was town. They would know voting for her towards the end would look suspicious. They would put in their votes early with lots of analysis to back it up, or they wouldn’t put in their votes at all. Another Citizen, on the other hand, has no idea what role percypercy is playing and is simply trying to follow her own instincts. My instincts were wrong. So were those of a lot of other people. My vote being the last being taken as a “scumtell” is very silly. Only a suicidal Mafioso would do that. It’s far too early in the game for the scum to try sacrificing one of their own like that. The only person who would vote as I did would be a clueless Citizen.
My thoughts on the rest of you all:
fluiddruid - Not sure of. I’ve been looking in that direction for a while now, but nothing more has pinged my radar, which makes me think town with a bad first day.
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - Not sure, leaning towards town.
Hal Briston - I don’t have much to go on either way, so I’m leaning towards town for now.
nesta - Not sure, but I’ve considered scum a few times.
Projammer - This one, I just don’t know. Especially after the sudden bandwagon on Day 1 that just as suddenly stopped.
SnakesCatLady - Not sure, but I’m leaning towards town.
Lightnin’ - While NAF was looking at him suspiciously and even tossed votes that way and we know NAF was town, he was just vanilla. He had no more knowledge than the rest of us, as evidenced by the percypercy incident. Projammer seems like a better direction to look in than Lightnin’, but even that doesn’t seem very solid yet.
**Lemur866 **- I’m suspicious here, but nothing concrete to back it up yet.
tirial - Slightly less suspicious, but still on my radar.
**Blaster Master **- Ah, yes. The one who argued so eloquently for the lynching of percypercy. The one whose playing style has altered dramatically in this game and yet no one but me has seemed to really notice. Last time around, Blaster was voicing suspicions all over the place and very aggressive. Last time, he had a pro-town power role. This time around he’s voicing far fewer suspicions and when he finally does go on the aggressive…it’s against a Citizen. Think about it.
Millit the Frail - Not sure. I don’t feel like I have much to go on here either way.
Rachm Qoch - Really not sure.
DiggitCamara - I lean towards town playing cautiously for now.
dnooman - I can see where others have seen a scummy vibe here. Not sure if I’d be willing to vote in that direction, but I can see why someone might.
Kyrie Eleison - Really not sure.
Omi No Kami - Not sure. I’d thought I might be looking at scum the first time around, but we have so little to go on the first round and I’ve already been wrong once.
Idle Thoughts - This one has puzzled me. At first I kept thinking scum, but then as I thought more about Blaster’s change in persona, I realized something: Idle Thoughts is playing a lot like Blaster was in the last game. It’s doubtful that scum would draw that much attention to himself. A pro-town role is most likely to come out swinging like this.
Considering that there are only six on here that I’d be willing to consider as town, I’m obviously being overly paranoid right now, but with the majority of players I just don’t know. It’s still so early in the game. We should all keep that in mind–we don’t know anything yet except that NAF and percypercy were Citizens.
[QUOTE=CaerieD]
So I’m coming across scummy, am I? Seriously, I think you need to reconsider your logic here. From the perspective of the Mafia, what good would it do to hop on board the end of a bandwagon against a Citizen?
[/QUOTE]
If Projammer is mafia, it makes a lot of sense for another mafia to make sure he wasn’t lynched.
If percypercy had posted, without your vote it would have been 4/4 Percypercy/Projammer. With it it guaranteed percypercy swung. Lightnin was off the hook by that point as people had left his bandwagon.
As I said, you could be scum protecting scum or a townie joining a bandwagon, and I really can’t tell which. This is why I’m not voting.
And right at the moment I am feeling paranoid, because there is enough in the thread to build a case against virtually anyone if you look hard.
[QUOTE=tirial]
If Projammer is mafia, it makes a lot of sense for another mafia to make sure he wasn’t lynched.
If percypercy had posted, without your vote it would have been 4/4 Percypercy/Projammer. With it it guaranteed percypercy swung. Lightnin was off the hook by that point as people had left his bandwagon.
As I said, you could be scum protecting scum or a townie joining a bandwagon, and I really can’t tell which. This is why I’m not voting.
And right at the moment I am feeling paranoid, because there is enough in the thread to build a case against virtually anyone if you look hard.
[/QUOTE]
The problem here is that if I was scum and so was Projammer, it would be foolish to cast that vote in that case. It wouldn’t remove suspicion from Projammer, but it would add it to me, increasing the odds that one or both of us would get lynched. While it might be quite noble to risk oneself for comrades, this is just a game. It’d be a poor tactic for the Mafia to do such a thing. They’d be more likely to pile on against Projammer in that case, to make themselves look innocent.
I switched my vote because I was still on the fence about Blaster and he’d provided good analysis. I’d explained my reasons for voting and I even said who I was going to finger if percypercy turned out to be town. If you really think Projammer is scum and someone was trying to save him, look at who was really pushing the percypercy bandwagon.
Or, you could put your vote where your mouth is. Think Projammer is scum? Let’s find out. I’ve already been looking in that direction, though I’m still uncertain. Give me a good reason to vote for Projammer and I’ll join you. This good reason shouldn’t hinge on the fact that I didn’t vote for Projammer, though. Frankly, I hadn’t even paid attention to the fact that you’d said you were going to switch votes before I voted.
[QUOTE=CaerieD]
The Mafia would know that percypercy was town. They would know voting for her towards the end would look suspicious. They would put in their votes early with lots of analysis to back it up, or they wouldn’t put in their votes at all.
[/QUOTE]
True, to a point. The strongest argument against this is that there were several failed bandwagons that encountered a lot of votes (and FOS). What if Lightnin’ and/or Projammer were Mafia? How does that change the situation? How many people didn’t have a vote on one of those three?
There were legitimate town reasons to vote for percypercy next to those two candidates, but, there were also legitimate scum reasons to do it if percypercy’s vote was intended to save someone else. A derailed bandwagon – let alone two – so late in Day One, I think, tells us as much as percypercy’s unfortunate lynching.
Now, we’ll have to be a bit realistic. The Mafia didn’t have a chance to talk, presumably, until after percypercy got the noose. Only so much cooperation makes sense on Day One.
When I voted for percypercy, I didn’t really consider him a serious lynching candidate. I just got absolutely no scum feeling about Projammer at the time, based on the arguments that were out there. I assumed that the bandwagon was going to roll over on Projammer anyway and I thought it would be a good time to point out that a less active player means less chance for a power role accidentally lynching, which would have been catastrophic for Town. Did it work? I guess, and in a way I didn’t expect, with several other votes coming in to save Projammer. I guess I’d like to hear more from those who voted for either.
[QUOTE=tirial]
(By the way, I currently have a chorus of co-workers chiming in over my shoulder - I know this is a spectator sport, but I didn’t realise that half the office would get hooked! And no I’m not discussing strategy with them and I haven’t told them my role.)
[/QUOTE]
Had to go ahead and respond to this part. I’ll address the rest with a more detailed posting when I get the chance. Not a slow day at work today.
If any of them are betting that I’m mafia, go ahead and take their money.
[QUOTE=dnooman]
Would DiggitCamara and Rachm Qoch please state explicitly what they don’t agree with me about? Explicitly.
[/QUOTE]
Like I’ve said, several times, I’m trying to fight the notion that there was a significant danger of Projammer’s lynching previous to the Lightnin’-**percypercy **swing of votes.
Like tirial has pointed out, one of the main reasons the scum might be interested in swinging the vote against **percypercy **might be to deflect a possible lynching of one of their own.
Just before the swing started I announced I wasn’t going to be able to log in until after the day had ended. Why is this significant? Because my statement secured at least one vote for percypercy and made her a better target to change the outcome of the lynching (I, at least, was sure Lightnin’ was a sure goner).
And, since I’m showcasing my disagreements with your positions, dnooman, I’d like to add one thing: the reasoning that made you switch your vote from Lightnin’ to percypercy is spurious at best. If** Lightnin’ **were a mason, he would certainly have used it in his defense. Your “epiphany” came completely out of left field and makes a flimsy explanation for your vote change.
[QUOTE=SnakesCatLady]
I am suspicious of you because you seem so determined to be suspicious of me. And as you said above: “anyone who seems to spread suspicion lightly…”
I am also very suspicious of Projammer. Both of our dearly departed townies had voted for him, and I think much more highly of NAF1138’s abilities in this game than I do of my own. I think that is why he was killed off so fast.
[/QUOTE]
Might as well address this one at well:
My FOS on you is very light and is mainly based on your infrequent posting on day one. Which brings me again to my question: why do you think I am “determined to be suspicious” of you?
As far as I can tell, thus far I only have 3 posts which talk about you: my list of FOS on day one, my question this day to clarify my supposed hounding of you and this one.
OK, here’s my thoughts.
As I see it, there were three people in danger of swinging on the first day. Percypercy, Lightnin’, and Projammer. I was one of those that tried to stop the Lightning bandwagon. Not because I have any secret knowledge of his status, but because I couldn’t believe a mafiosi would be so unsmooth after getting accused.
So, I’m not saying we should lynch Lightning, we have no good reason to do so. But when Lightning turns up dead, his status will shed some light on this first day’s vote. If he turns out to be mafia then all of us who derailed his lynching turn into prime suspects. If he turns out to be mason, then that’s a pretty good reason for people to protect him. If he turns out to be town, well, then it was just one of those things where people protected him because he seemed like a townsman. And those people that suspected him are a little bit more scummy…although we know NAF suspected him, and NAF was proven innocent. It’s very possible this early for townsmen to suspect townsmen, that shouldn’t be taken as evidence of scummyness.
[QUOTE=dnooman]
vote Lightnin’. I should have never removed my vote from him in the first place. I guess I never really fleshed out the idea that made me change my mind. All things being equal though, percy still would have died given the total vote count.
[/QUOTE]
Of the three bandwagoneers I mentioned earlier, you were the only one I didn’t put a qualifier on.
[QUOTE=Lightnin’]
Going back over the entire thread (ow, my eyes!), I’m inclined to be suspicious of CaerieD, Hal Briston, and dnooman, simply due to their propensity for bandwagon hopping.
Of those, CaerieD seems to be the most quiet. The only one of those who didn’t vote for percypercy would be Hal Briston.
[/QUOTE]
What I didn’t say, however, was that of the three, you were the only one who jumped from the bandwagon against me to the bandwagon against percypercy. Now, I think that’d be suspicious in and of itself, but now that you’ve voted against me now that percypercy is out of the way, I’m going to have to vote dnooman.
Granted, I’m using insider knowledge here- I know that I’m not Mafia, and therefore I’m suspicious of anyone who accuses me. 
However, I think it’s still suspicious that you were on my bandwagon when it looked like I was going to be lynched, and then when the tide swung percypercy’s direction and it looked like I wasn’t going to be swinging, you hopped onto the next easiest person to frame.
Ok, I’ve been looking back at the events since “last night”, and two of dnooman’s posts are really screaming out at me:
This post was made just as night fell. My reply question is, why do you ask? Yes, a townie could ask it, and the answer would give us a tiny grain of information, but that’s information that would be of much more use to scum.
Next up is post #608:
Someone please correct me if I’m wrong here, but this reads to me like dnooman knows exactly how many players are scum, no?
Perhaps I’m reading this completely wrong, but it seems to me like he just slipped and stated that there are four scum players. Am I missing something with this?
[QUOTE=tirial]
How do you know? And would it have been more or less suspicious if people came out of the woodwork to jump on the Lightnin’ bandwagon, once people had started pushing the case for percypercy? If Lightnin’ had come out town after a lynch, at that point the mafia would have outed themselves through the voting pattern. Do they really care which townie we kill?
Of course, if Lightnin’ was mafia then they’d push the percypercy bandwagon to protect him, so I’m not sure what we’ve learned from this (other than that I am a lousy judge of character).
Logically we should be able to get something from the people who voted for both, since we know that percypercy is town, but I’m not good enough at strategic analysis to work it out. My current thinking is that a later vote for both, switching from Lighnin to Percypercy would be suspicious, but I don’t have anything solid. I’ll drop my working notes in if anyone is interested but I am certain I have made errors, (and I tend to overthink these things) which is why I’m not FOSing anyone yet.
[/QUOTE]
As for your question about Mafia coming out of the woodwork to vote Lightnin’ if he were town, I think it’s moot. The Mafia knows what he is, and so it wouldn’t have been any big surprise to them if he were to “turn up town.” There would be no big “oops” moment. He would have been as good a townie to kill as percypercy…except that (IMHO, of course) he’s not a townie. The percypercy bandwagon was basically “she’s scum because she’s quiet,” right? Lame. I said it then and I’ll say it again, she was just an overly cautious townie.
And I think you’re spot on in your second paragraph.
Yeah, I’m still focused on this. I was sure enough of Lightnin’s scum status that I made the crucial vote. That would have made me look really bad had he turned up town…but I don’t think he is.
And what’s this I hear about lynching lurkers? I don’t like it much. Maybe because I haven’t been posting much. But as I said, I’m not lurking, I’m just on bridesmaid duty right now, so I’m posting whenever I can get a wireless connection. This is hard!!
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Might as well address this one at well:
My FOS on you is very light and is mainly based on your infrequent posting on day one. Which brings me again to my question: why do you think I am “determined to be suspicious” of you?
As far as I can tell, thus far I only have 3 posts which talk about you: my list of FOS on day one, my question this day to clarify my supposed hounding of you and this one.
[/QUOTE]
You commented on my “lack” of participation in post 482. You then seemed determined to bring it up again in post 489, even though I had posted stating that I didn’t have anything to articulate at the time. No one else seems to be worried that I’m not posting every sixty seconds and there are several other posters who have posted much less than I have.
I think you are scum trying to get a bandwagon started on me and I’m going to do my best to not let it happen.
[QUOTE=SnakesCatLady]
You commented on my “lack” of participation in post 482. You then seemed determined to bring it up again in post 489, even though I had posted stating that I didn’t have anything to articulate at the time. No one else seems to be worried that I’m not posting every sixty seconds and there are several other posters who have posted much less than I have.
I think you are scum trying to get a bandwagon started on me and I’m going to do my best to not let it happen.
[/QUOTE]
Well… nope. Two posts do not (in my mind) a hounding make. Much less a bandwaggoning (especially since not many have my fixation on post-counting 
)
Still: it is in town’s interest to generate useful information. And that information should come from the posts we generate! That’s the reason why I left my vote on percypercy: I hoped to get some kind of response. And her lack of response was what ultimately spelled her doom.
And back to my favorite theme: the swing from Lightnin’ to percypercy.
I think the crucial time to inspect starts with post #477 and ends at #495.
#477-- Omi no Kami, Lightnin’ and **Projammer **tied at 3 votes (**percypercy **at 2)
#481-- **SnakesCatLady **votes for Lightnin’
#490-- **IdleThoughts **unvotes Lightnin’
#493-- **fluiddruid **votes **percypercy **(while FOS->Lightnin’)
#495–**dnooman **switches his vote from Lightnin’ to **percypercy **(percypercy=4 votes), citing fluiddruid’s reasoning for his switch
Shortly afterwards **BlasterMaster **votes for percypercy, sealing her doom.
My reading of this:
[QUOTE=fluiddruid]
Why? I stated at the time of my vote, and I’ll say again now, when it comes to round one and the odds are against us, I’d rather take down a quiet/less contributory townie if necessary. Yes, it sucks, but we would have been pretty lucky to clue in perfectly.
Besides… why should we fear to share strategy? I don’t see a reason for townies to be secretive with one another (other than role claims / investigations, purely for the purposes of self-protection). If you die, you take it to the grave.
[/QUOTE]
Of course I can’t disagree that some lynchings are worse than others. No doubt lynching the Detective or Watchman is worse than lynching a vanilla townie. Or a Mason vs. Vanilla. And I’m not questioning the fact that lynching a participating townie is worse than one who doesn’t contribute anything. But I’d never go so far as to say I’d be HAPPY with voting for a townie to hang!!! ::eyes dnooman::
I put any town lynching in the “bad” category.
The only good lynching is a mafia lynching.
That should go without saying, but apparently some need to be reminded of that.
Regarding strategy:
If you say we must gather our wits together (that’s what I think you’re saying) then I’m with you. We shouldn’t be secretive with each other UNLESS it is detrimental to the town. But when it drifts into speculating who might or might not be Masons, as some have done, it’s a bad thing, at least in this very early stage.