OK, I have had a really bad day at work and I’m not thinking clearly, but could you clarify your last sentence?
I know the argument saying there are between 4-6 mafia. If there’s 5 or more mafia, it is clear that at least one, probably two mafia got voted for, even if you are a townie. Why do you need to be a mason to know this? If one or more of the four not voted for is a mason, that just raises the number of mafia that received votes.
Actually considering, it doesn’t raise the number of mafia that must have received votes, it just means the masons know that the minimum number of mafia members that got voted for is one higher than the rest of us think.
16 of 20 posters voted for.
How does this help us ID mafia? And why are masons important? The last thing a mason should do is reveal role if they are one of the four - it doesn’t tell us anything valuable.
You missed one:
#478 - Millit the Frail votes for Lightnin’
Right you are :smack:
If I’m counting correctly, that makes dnooman’s switcheroo exactly the point at which **percypercy **went from 3 votes to 4 and **Lightnin’ ** from 4 votes to 3.
Which might imply that I’m Mafia, and he was trying to cover for me… except that he’s now voted to lynch me again. I’m the easiest target right now, so if he’s Mafia I’m a safe vote for him.
Well, that gives 4 scenarios.
Lightning town, dnooman town
Lightning mafia, dnooman town
Lightning town, dnooman mafia
Lightning mafia, dnooman mafia
Dnooman switched from Lightning to percypercy at a suspicious (for certain values of suspicious) time.
So, suposing for a second that dnooman is mafia, his only motive to switch from Lightning to percypercy is if Lightning is also a mafiosi.
Which means that the only scenario that I think can be ruled out is 3, I don’t think Lightning could be a townie at the same time as dnooman is a mafiosi. But either of the other three could be true. However, I’m one of those that derailed the Lightning bandwagon as well, on the grounds that I was convinced Lightning was town. If that’s true, then the only scenario that makes sense is scenario 1, both are townsmen engaging in friendly fire.
Substitute “Masons” for “scum” and you’d have an explanation for both of dnooman’s votes… if you’re both scum. (And, for that matter, explains your votes to this point) (see this post)
And, Lemur866, how and when did you “derail” the** Lightnin’ ** bandwagon?
In post #659 I detailed the actors that helped swing the votes and I don’t see your name there.
Well, there’s one more motive, which would keep #3 still in play. The Mafia want townies strung up, right? Well, they knew that percypercy was Town, and the votes seemed to be swinging from stringing me up, to stringing her up. If stringing me up was a lost cause, then voting to string up percypercy would be the safe move.
I’m kind of dubious that the Mafia would be willing to sacrifice one of their own, especially this early in the game.
Yes, mafia want townies strung up. We know percypercy was a townie, now that we, you know, killed her. So supposing that you’re also a townie, why should the mafia care which of you get strung up? Switching votes to jump on the percypercy bandwagon at the last minute makes no sense, because the mafia and only the mafia knew she was innocent. Not that it’s impossible, just that switching to the innocent percypercy doesn’t help them in any way.
The only way it helps is if you are mafia and the other mafia want to make damn sure that no last minute vote change gets you hung. If you’re town, why should they care which of two townies get hung?
There’s no sacrifice involved, because the mafia knows who isn’t mafia.
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8490871&postcount=421
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494445&postcount=486
[QUOTE=Lemur866]
Switching votes to jump on the percypercy bandwagon at the last minute makes no sense, because the mafia and only the mafia knew she was innocent. Not that it’s impossible, just that switching to the innocent percypercy doesn’t help them in any way.
QUOTE]
There were three potential victims - percypercy, Lightnin, but there was also Projammer, who was on 3 votes throughout. Switching to or voting for percypercy would help protect anyone who was on three votes when the **Lightnin ** bandwagon fell apart.
In 477 that was Lighnin’, Projammer and Omi no Kami, all on 3.
By 508, after the bandwagon fell apart it was percypercy (6), Projammer (3), Lighnin (2) and Omi No Kami (2)
Vote jumps within this set were:
dnooman (Lightnin to percypercy 495)
CaerieD (Omi no Kami to Percy Percy 506)
Two of Projammer’s votes were Naf1138 and percypercy, both confirmed town. Unfortunately they were going on the same info as the rest of us, so that’s not enough info to be suspicious on its own
It might not be enough but it makes me really suspicious. WasNAF1139’s vote for Projammer one of the reasons the Mafia took him out? He had also voted (and unvoted) for fluiddruid andLightnin’.
vote Projammer.
Note that I NEVER had a vote on NAF. I had a tentative FOS on him pending identifying Lightnin as scum. And with NAF confirmed as town, Lightnin is coming up higher than ever. And PercyPercy was never on my radar at all. Not sure where you’re getting your info from.
Since I’m here vote Lightnin
Doh! :smack: You were saying they had voted for me. Quite right.
My vote stands however.
That doesn’t strike you as being just a bit too obvious? Taking out someone who had voted for me after that wagon lost its wheels? More likely, and apparently I’m betting my life on this, NAF was targeted because he was arguably the most experienced player in this game and therefor the biggest threat to them.
Ah, I see where you’re coming from.
However, I don’t think it really counts as part of the “derailing”. You didn’t actually vote or unvote him; you just voiced your (just?) concerns about a bandwagon that was out to get him. You didn’t even FOS percypercy in that second post (which falls in the *critical * period. (As for the first… well, let’s just say that I’m glad I finally get some support for my “townies shouldn’t lurk” meme)
That could be true. After all, NAF had garnered a bit of suspicion himself, and the scum could have taken out a more trusted townie.
On the flip side, though, percypercy is dead and you aren’t. I think it only makes sense for us to try to understand why. With you and Lightnin’ garnering so much suspicion but yet failing to get a true bandwagon - was it a coincidence based on the timing? Isn’t it worth exploring?
In the end, your death – or Lightnin’s, in my opinion – would tell us a lot. I’m sure that’s where these accusations are coming from. On the flip side, I think we should be looking for scum tells rather than informative deaths. And, I’m not wholly convinced the ongoing bandwagon against you isn’t scum-driven as an easy townie target.
We should absolutely not tolerate that in this round (barring the folks who have legitimate reasons and specific dates/times they cannot post). Some people were never voted for last round based on their relative lack of FOSs and voting - they’re lying too low on the radar for my taste and everyone should be accountable for their post record.
Speaking of which, I’m going to be out of town (and away from the Internet) attending my roommates’ wedding from Friday afternoon to Sunday evening. We’ll deal with that when it gets here; depending on whether the day is completed by then, it might be only minimally intrusive. Either way, something will be worked out. This is just a heads-up.
Oh, good. I’m going to be out of town those days as well.